Weak On-Chain Metrics and Falling Open Interest Temper XRP ETF Optimism
XRP’s growing spot ETF optimism faces significant headwinds from weak on-chain metrics and declining Open Interest. Despite Franklin Templeton extending its ETF filing and the REX-Osprey XRPR ETF debuting with $37.7 million in volume, Spot Taker CVD data shows sellers still in control. Network growth has slipped to 4,849 new addresses, while daily transactions linger around 617,000—levels that historically fail to sustain price rallies. A negative divergence in Daily Active Addresses indicates traders are hesitating to engage, and Open Interest in XRP derivatives has fallen by 3.34% to $7.33 billion. These signals suggest speculative demand may be insufficient for a lasting rally, even if regulatory catalysts deliver short-term price relief. For a sustained uptrend, XRP needs stronger network expansion, higher transaction activity, and renewed derivative positioning rather than relying solely on ETF approval.
Bearish
ETF optimism around XRP remains high, but multiple on-chain indicators—low network growth, stagnant transactions, negative active-address divergence—and a 3.34% drop in Open Interest signal weak speculative support. In past cycles, XRP rallies with rising OI and strong network activity proved more sustainable. Without renewed participation across wallets and derivatives markets, any ETF-driven price gains risk fading quickly. Traders should view the current setup as bearish until on-chain fundamentals improve.