Analyst Warns XRP: Weekly EMA Breakdown Signals Increased Downside Risk
A technical analyst known as STEPH IS CRYPTO flagged a critical bearish signal for XRP after the token slipped below its weekly exponential moving average (EMA) ribbon. The analyst posted a video on X highlighting that a confirmed break under the weekly EMA ribbon historically coincides with extended bearish phases for XRP (notable precedents in 2014, 2015, 2018 and 2022). XRP recently traded under $1.90 and is hovering near important support between about $1.85 and $2.21; momentum indicators remain skewed to sellers. Traders are advised to monitor weekly closes relative to the EMA ribbon and the psychological $2.00 level: reclaiming the EMA on sustained volume could shift sentiment bullish, while continued weakness below it may expose lower support near $1.80. The report notes mixed signals — RSI divergence and cycle timing hint at possible stabilization or rebounds, and prior brief breaks below EMAs in 2024–2025 preceded sharp recoveries. This is market analysis, not financial advice.
Bearish
The primary factor driving a bearish classification is the confirmed weekly close beneath the EMA ribbon — a widely watched multi-period trend filter. Historically, sustained trading below that ribbon in XRP correlated with extended declines (2014, 2015, 2018, 2022). Current price action (sub-$1.90) and momentum indicators favor sellers, increasing the probability of further downside toward the next structural support near $1.80 if the EMA is not reclaimed. For short-term trading, this raises the odds of increased volatility and intensified selling pressure; traders may prefer short or hedge positions until a convincing weekly reclaim on volume. In the medium to long term, the impact depends on whether buyers can defend the $1.85–$2.21 demand zone: successful defense and RSI/momentum improvements could produce a recovery similar to brief 2024–2025 rebounds, while failure would keep the path lower. Risk management should focus on watching weekly closes, volume confirmation, and RSI divergence — all decisive signals that historically preceded either sustained bear runs or rapid reversals for XRP.