Privacy surge drove ZCash rally as shielded supply jumped to 30% — what bulls need next
ZCash (ZEC) saw a pronounced rally from September 2025 through early 2026 driven by renewed interest in privacy features. On-chain data from ZecHub shows shielded transactions and shielded supply rose sharply: shielded transaction share peaked near 26% in August and October 2025, while ZEC held in Sapling and Orchard pools grew from 3.2 million in June 2025 to 5 million by November — about 30.24% of circulating supply (up from 11.25% in November 2024). Price action was volatile: ZEC defended a weekly support around $187, rallied past $300 and briefly targeted $360, but fell back under $300 after Bitcoin rejected near $70.9k on 15 February. Spot taker CVD shows taker-sell dominance, indicating prevailing spot selling pressure. Drivers likely include the 2024 halving and a broader privacy narrative that increased on-chain shielded usage; potential catalysts moving forward include wider adoption mechanisms or institutional products (for example, spot ETF frameworks for other crypto) that could alter liquidity and investor access. For traders: monitor shielded supply trends and shielded transaction share, BTC price action (as correlated risk), key price levels ($187 weekly support, $300 psychological level, $360 short-term target), and taker CVD for signs of spot selling or absorption. The news is notable because a sustained shift into shielded pools reduces available circulating supply and can support price if demand persists, but short-term moves remain sensitive to Bitcoin-led market sentiment.
Bullish
The net effect of a large increase in shielded supply (from 11.25% to ~30% of circulating ZEC) is supply reduction available on exchanges and visible balances — a bullish structural factor if demand holds. The privacy narrative and higher shielded transaction share indicate growing utility and on-chain usage, which can underpin longer-term price appreciation. Historically, coins that see meaningful on-chain accumulation or locking (reducing circulating float) often experience upward pressure when market sentiment is stable. However, the recent price weakness below $300 tied to Bitcoin’s rejection and taker-sell dominant CVD shows short-term vulnerability to broader market moves. Therefore, the outlook is bullish structurally but conditional: sustained demand, continued shielded accumulation, or new adoption/investment products are needed to confirm a durable rally. Traders should treat this as a bull-tilted setup with important risk controls tied to BTC correlation and spot selling metrics.