Zcash leads Q4 privacy rally; analyst says ZEC could reach $1,000
Zcash (ZEC) led a privacy-coin rally in Q4 2025, driven by narrative momentum and rising usage across privacy networks. Grayscale reported that privacy tokens dominated Q4 performance, with ZEC gaining over 600%, Dash (DASH) up 218% and Monero (XMR) up 48% in the quarter. ZEC surged more than 1,000% in October to a record high of $751 before retracing to $320 in early December; it traded near $539 at press time. A pseudonymous analyst, Anonymist, forecasts ZEC could reach $1,000, citing a potential tradable-supply squeeze: of 16 million circulating ZEC, roughly 5 million are shielded and less available, leaving an estimated 8–10 million tradable coins as price rises. Market signals are mixed — prediction market Polymarket assigns ~30% odds of ZEC hitting $1,000, while CoinGlass showed 70% of Binance’s top traders shorting ZEC. Increased spot accumulation and reduced freely tradable supply could support a renewed rally, but high volatility and significant short interest pose downside risk for traders.
Bullish
The article points to strong narrative-driven demand and measurable price gains for privacy coins, with ZEC posting outsized returns in Q4 and renewed spot accumulation. The analyst argument for a $1,000 target rests on a plausible supply squeeze: a meaningful portion of ZEC is shielded and not freely tradable, which can cause tradable supply to tighten as prices rise. Historically, coins with concentrated or shrinking tradable supply have experienced sharp short-term rallies (e.g., BTC halvings, token lockups). Mixed indicators — high short interest among Binance top traders and only ~30% probability on Polymarket — increase downside risk and suggest elevated volatility. For traders: short-term action is likely to remain volatile and news-driven; momentum traders may target continuation of the rally if spot accumulation continues and exchanges show declining available balances, while risk managers should account for sharp pullbacks as seen in December. Longer-term impact depends on sustained user adoption of privacy features and regulatory developments; if narrative and on-chain usage persist, reduced liquid supply could support higher structural prices, making the intermediate outlook bullish but conditional and high-risk.