Tokenized gold tokens such as PAXG and Tether Gold (XAUt) have become the primary source of gold price discovery during the CME gold futures weekend halt (Friday 17:00 ET to Sunday 18:00 ET). According to Iggy Ioppe, CIO of Theo and former Credit Suisse CIO, traders shift pricing and liquidity to 24/7 on‑chain tokenized gold markets when CME is offline. Over the past year tokenized gold market cap rose from about $1.6bn to $4.4bn (~177%), holders’ wallets nearly tripled with 115,000+ new wallets, and 2025 trading volume hit roughly $178bn (Q4 peak > $126bn), making tokenized gold the second‑largest gold investment product by volume after GLD. Market participants include market makers, cross‑exchange liquidity providers, crypto macro traders and institutional arbitrageurs who use tokenized gold for exposure, collateral, hedging and yield strategies. Geopolitical shocks that occur during CME downtime have driven flows into tokenized gold (for example PAXG/XAUt gains during regional tensions), while BTC and ETH weakened in the same periods. Risks remain: on‑chain liquidity is small relative to futures and ETFs, large trades can move prices, and fragmented custody, regulatory, accounting and capital rules constrain institutional adoption. Market makers and arbitrageurs help align weekend on‑chain pricing with CME when it reopens, and tokenized gold is expected to coexist with — not replace — traditional futures and ETFs. Key keywords: tokenized gold, PAXG, XAUt, CME gold futures, price discovery, on‑chain liquidity, RWA.
U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he believes Arab states do not need to join the United States in mounting attacks against Iran. The brief report, attributed to PA News and republished by PANews on March 2, 2026, contains no additional details on timing, specific countries, or follow-up policy measures. The article is a short political remark rather than an in-depth policy announcement and includes a standard market-information disclaimer. Primary keyword: Trump; secondary keywords: Iran, Arab states, U.S. foreign policy. This development is a diplomatic statement that could affect geopolitical risk sentiment but contains limited actionable detail.
Neutral
TrumpIranMiddle East geopoliticsU.S. foreign policyMarket sentiment
Last week (Feb 23–Mar 1) saw 15 disclosed blockchain funding events totaling over $129 million. Notable deals: Based, a Web trading and payments app built on Hyperliquid, closed a $11.5M Series A led by Pantera Capital with participation from Coinbase Ventures, Wintermute Ventures and Karatage; the round included equity and token warrants. t54 Labs, an AI-agent trust infrastructure provider, raised $5M seed (led by Anagram/PL Capital/Franklin Templeton; Ripple among investors) for identity, real-time risk and settlement tools for autonomous AI agents. World Bank’s IFC invested ~$40M into Malaysian digital infrastructure provider Zetrix AI to expand regional digital-ID and blockchain services. STS Digital, an institutional crypto options platform, raised $30M led by CMT Digital. Other raises: Apyx (stablecoin protocol) received strategic investment from DeFi Development (Solana treasury firm); Finrob raised $3.9M seed for AI-native research tools; PlutonAI $2.7M seed; manadia $7M; Bluprynt $4.25M; Rhythmic $4M; prediction-market projects TBD $3M, Kash $2M, Fireplace $1.5M. Tether made a strategic investment in internet marketplace Whop (reports suggest $200M). OpenAI announced a separate $110B financing at a $730B valuation (excluded from totals). Overall themes: strong investor appetite for Web3+AI, prediction markets, stablecoin rails and infrastructure. For traders: key signals include continued institutional capital into crypto infrastructure and stablecoin/payment rails, rising investor interest in AI-agent tooling tied to blockchain, and fresh capital in Solana-linked projects and prediction markets — developments that may support liquidity, product expansion and on-chain activity in the mid term.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has rallied to about 98.00, marking a five-week high as escalating Middle East tensions trigger classic safe‑haven flows into the dollar and US Treasuries. The move follows a breakout from a recent consolidation and breached key technical resistance, making 98.00 a pivotal level for near‑term price action. Major currency pairs reacted sharply: EUR/USD fell below ~1.0700, GBP/USD dropped toward ~1.2500, and USD/JPY tested ~152.00. Global equities sold off while US government bond prices rose. A sustained stronger DXY would tighten global financial conditions, raise debt servicing costs for dollar‑borrowers in emerging markets and corporates, and influence commodity pricing. For central banks, including the Fed, a firmer dollar can ease imported inflation but complicate export competitiveness and policy choices. Traders — especially in crypto markets — should watch geopolitical developments, US Treasury flows, oil and energy prices, and Fed communications to assess whether the DXY spike is a transient risk‑off reaction or the start of a longer trend. Primary keywords: US Dollar Index, DXY, safe‑haven. Secondary keywords: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Fed policy, dollar rally, risk‑off.
Bearish
US Dollar IndexDXYSafe‑haven FlowsForex ImpactFed Policy
Jupiter (JUP) rebounded from a low of $0.14 to a two-week high near $0.176, rising about 17% to trade around $0.172 as demand recovered. Short-term momentum flipped bullish with the price moving above the EMA20 and testing EMA50; RSI climbed to ~55. On-chain metrics show higher activity: Active Daily Addresses rose to ~13.3k. Futures saw net inflows of $1.96M (inflows $25.01M vs outflows $23.05M), Open Interest increased 22% to $44.07M, and derivatives volume jumped 53% to $101M—signs of renewed speculative demand. However, Binance and OKX long/short ratios remained below 1 (overall ~0.99; Binance 0.93; OKX 0.89), indicating more short positions. Spot netflow turned positive ($677k; $5.6M inflows vs $4.9M outflows) as some previously underwater holders cashed out, creating potential sell pressure. Short-term technicals and flows suggest upside if capital continues to arrive (targets: flip EMA50 at $0.17, $0.20, EMA100 at $0.21), but spot selling and profit-taking could drive JUP back to $0.14 before any sustained rally. Key metrics: price ~$0.172 (+17%), Active Daily Addresses 13.3k, Futures netflow $1.96M, Open Interest $44.07M, Derivatives Volume $101M.
On January 15, 2025, Israeli forces struck Hezbollah-linked targets in Beirut’s southern suburbs after approximately 40 rockets were launched from Lebanon toward northern Israel. Israel’s Iron Dome intercepted most projectiles; some caused minor property damage and no initial serious casualties were reported. The Israel Defense Forces held the Lebanese state responsible and targeted what it described as Hezbollah military infrastructure in the Dahieh district—a known Hezbollah stronghold. Hezbollah is estimated to possess over 130,000 rockets and missiles across short-, medium- and long-range categories, enabling saturation strikes on Israeli population centers. Analysts describe the exchange as a calculated tit‑for‑tat within a deterrence framework, but note the geographic jump to the capital raises stakes and the risk of miscalculation. International actors, including the UN and the US, have called for restraint while Iran condemned the strike and remains Hezbollah’s main backer. Key near-term regional risks include Lebanese political instability, potential spillover into the Syrian theater, and impacts on Eastern Mediterranean energy infrastructure and global energy markets. The incident underscores fragile deterrence since the 2006 war and the possibility that localized exchanges could rapidly escalate.
Bearish
Middle East ConflictHezbollahIsraelBorder EscalationRegional Energy Risk
Trump Media & Technology Group plans to spin off its flagship social platform, Truth Social, into a new public company (SpinCo) and merge it with Texas Ventures Acquisition III, a SPAC tied to an earlier ~ $6+ billion agreement involving fusion-energy developer TAE Technologies. Shareholders of Trump Media would receive SpinCo shares. The move follows the company’s aggressive 2025 push into crypto and fintech under its Truth.Fi brand: a disclosed Bitcoin treasury of ~11,500 BTC, multiple ETF filings (Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs and a CRO staking-linked fund), and a CRO reserve established with Crypto.com and Yorkville Acquisition. The proposed TAE tie-in highlights strategic synergy claims—fusion energy could lower power costs for AI data centers and crypto operations—though the combined business reported sizable 2025 losses (a $712.3M unrealized-loss-driven loss) and year-end assets near $2.5B. The articles note Bitcoin technicals (price ~ $66k; supports ~65.7k and 62.5k; resistance near 68k; RSI neutral–slightly bearish) and mention geopolitical tension (US–Iran) lifting futures volumes. Key risks are crypto volatility, regulatory and execution risk around ETF and SPAC deals, and potential valuation pressure from unrealized losses; key positives are an outsized BTC treasury and ETF progress that could bolster institutional demand. Traders should watch on-chain flows from the BTC treasury, ETF filing milestones, SPAC deal announcements, and liquidity/volatility around the announced supports and resistances for short-term moves; longer-term implications depend on ETF approvals and the successful separation/merger execution.
Digital advocacy group Digital Pinoys has endorsed House Bill 7844, filed on February 23, 2026 by the Makabayan Bloc (Reps. Sarah Jane Elago, Renee Louise Co, and Antonio Tinio), which seeks full repeal of Republic Act 12023 — the 12% VAT on digital services. Digital Pinoys argues the tax disproportionately burdens freelancers, content creators, students and MSMEs by adding costs on essential digital tools (streaming, cloud services, marketplaces, software). The group says removing the VAT would lower operating costs, improve competitiveness, and increase access to online learning. HB 7844 is pending with the House Committee on Ways and Means. The article notes R.A. 12023 took effect in 2024 and that the BIR’s 2025 implementing regulations included enforcement measures for non-compliant foreign platforms. Key keywords: digital VAT, HB 7844, Digital Pinoys, freelancers, MSMEs, Republic Act 12023.
Morgan Stanley filed for a de novo national trust bank charter named Morgan Stanley Digital Trust with the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency on Feb. 18 to offer institutional custody, trading and staking services for digital assets. The application names Purchase, New York as the main office and explicitly states the bank’s intent to provide legal custody, custody assurances, trading and staking for investment clients. This move follows the bank’s recent push into crypto — promoting Amy Oldenburg to global head of digital-asset strategy, filing for spot ETFs covering Bitcoin, Ether and Solana, and planning a proprietary digital wallet — and signals a shift from cautious engagement to active product building. The filing is set against a regulatory backdrop in which the OCC has granted conditional approvals to several crypto-native firms (eg, Ripple, Circle, BitGo, Fidelity Digital Assets, Paxos, Crypto.com, Bridge), creating precedent for on‑bank custody services. For traders: the application increases the prospect of Morgan Stanley offering native custody and staking that could channel institutional flows into BTC, ETH and SOL markets, expand custodial capacity, and clarify institutional access to staking yield. Key SEO keywords included: Morgan Stanley, crypto custody, staking, OCC charter, Bitcoin, Ether, Solana.
Bullish
Morgan StanleyCrypto CustodyStakingOCC CharterInstitutional Adoption
US President Donald Trump confirmed the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei after US–Israeli strikes and vowed sustained military action “until all targets are achieved,” urging Iranian forces to surrender. The US operation, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, reportedly struck over 1,000 targets using strategic bombers (B-2), fighters, EW aircraft, drones, aircraft carriers and missiles; Iran says Khamenei and about 40 senior officials were killed, with at least 201 dead and 700+ injured per Iran Red Crescent. Three US service members were also killed. Retaliatory strikes targeted US bases across Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq; reports claim four missiles hit the USS Abraham Lincoln. Hostilities have disrupted Gulf shipping—three oil tankers damaged and more than 200 vessels anchored near the Strait of Hormuz—prompting forecasts that war-risk insurance premiums could rise 25–50%, increasing shipping costs and upward pressure on oil prices. European Central Bank executive Nagel warned the US dollar’s traditional safe-haven status is under strain and likely to remain weak, a dynamic that historically diverts capital into decentralized assets like gold and Bitcoin. Traders should watch heightened oil price volatility, rising shipping and insurance costs, safe-haven flows (gold, BTC), and potential risk-off moves across crypto and traditional markets as geopolitical uncertainty unfolds.
Crypto custodial and vault companies may enter a consolidation phase by 2026 as many trade below net asset value (NAV), says BTCS chief strategy officer Wojciech Kaszycki. Market declines in 2025 left several crypto vault firms trading at prices below the value of on‑balance-sheet crypto holdings. Kaszycki told Cointelegraph that operators with revenue-generating activities — such as blockchain validator services or tokenized public/private credit products — have stronger cash flow and are better positioned to acquire distressed peers. He expects tokenization of real-world assets (RWA), particularly public and private credit, to grow substantially over the next 24 months and serve as collateral in DeFi lending. MicroStrategy (Strategy) and other large Bitcoin vaults are already offering credit-like and fixed-income products, which Kaszycki says helps justify index providers including them. Traders should note potential M&A among vault firms, growing RWA tokenization, and increased use of tokenized credit as market drivers affecting liquidity, valuations, and on‑chain collateral dynamics.
WTI crude futures jumped above $70.50 and Brent pushed past $75 amid renewed US–Iran tensions and military posturing near the Strait of Hormuz. Traders priced a growing geopolitical risk premium into oil markets as concerns rose over potential disruptions to roughly 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian exports (about 60% to East Asia). NYMEX buying volumes increased and the EIA reported an unexpected U.S. crude inventory draw, tightening near-term supply buffers. Although U.S. shale spare capacity and strategic petroleum reserves exist, they would take time to offset a sustained shortfall. Analysts say comparable events historically add several dollars per barrel in risk premium; lower OECD stocks reduce the market’s shock absorption. Expected consequences include headline-driven volatility, higher fuel costs, upward pressure on inflation, and sector divergence (energy equities outperforming transportation and consumer sectors). Traders should monitor EIA/IEA inventory prints, OPEC+ communications, shipping flows through the Persian Gulf and developments in diplomatic and military activity for trade signals.
A U.S. senator publicly criticized Sam Bankman-Fried after the crypto industry’s support for the proposed Clarity Act produced political backlash. The senator accused Bankman-Fried of exerting undue influence by backing lobbying efforts tied to the bill, framing the episode as evidence of problematic industry sway over legislation. The controversy centers on attempts by crypto stakeholders to shape clearer legal definitions and oversight for digital assets; however, the visible involvement of prominent figures prompted accusations of self-interest and triggered a political response that weakened momentum for the legislation. Market participants and policymakers are watching for further fallout, which could reshape regulatory debate and lobbying dynamics around crypto clarity, compliance expectations, and future rulemaking.
Bearish
Sam Bankman-FriedClarity Actcrypto regulationlobbyingpolitical backlash
Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour clarified how the prediction platform handled markets tied to reports of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death. Kalshi enforces a longstanding policy against markets that directly profit from death and said it refunded all fees for the “Khamenei no longer Supreme Leader” market. The platform will settle positions held before state-media confirmation at the last traded price prior to the report and pay traders accordingly. Positions opened after the confirmation will be reimbursed the difference between their entry price and that last traded price. Kalshi told Cointelegraph the prohibition on "death markets" is explicit in its market terms. The decision prompted user backlash from traders who said it curtailed potential gains. The coverage also notes broader integrity and regulatory concerns around geopolitical prediction markets, referencing prior Polymarket incidents where profitable bets tied to US strikes on Iran drew chain-analysis scrutiny and insider-trading suspicions. Key terms: Kalshi, prediction markets, settlement, refunds, death markets, insider trading.
Neutral
KalshiPrediction marketsSettlement and refundsDeath marketsInsider trading
Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded sharply after reports that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in strikes attributed to U.S.–Israel forces. BTC recovered from an intraday low near $63,000 to trade around $67,300–$68,200 on Coinbase as markets priced a lower probability of a prolonged U.S.–Iran war. Derivatives data show heavy forced liquidations: CoinGlass reported roughly 157,000 traders liquidated in 24 hours and about $657 million in total liquidations (longs and shorts broadly balanced); earlier estimates in another report indicated about $500 million wiped out with ~ $303 million from short liquidations that intensified a squeeze. February was already weak for Bitcoin (around a 15% monthly drop), leaving BTC down about 23% year-to-date and marking one of the weakest quarters since 2018. Key technical levels: support near $63,000–$64,000 and resistance in the $67,000–$68,500 band. For traders: expect elevated volatility while geopolitical headlines evolve; short squeezes and mass liquidations can quickly accelerate price moves. If tensions continue to ease and ETF flows remain constructive, BTC could retest recent highs, but sudden liquidation waves remain a material near-term risk.
Over a weekend when traditional markets were closed, more than $529 million flowed into prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi) and crypto venues (Hyperliquid) wagering on the fallout from US/Israeli strikes on Iran. Geopolitical contracts — notably whether Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei would be removed — saw particularly heavy volume. Chain analysis firm Bubblemaps flagged six newly created accounts that, within hours before an airstrike, accurately placed large “Yes” bets on a Feb 28 US strike; those accounts realized roughly $1.2 million combined, with one Polymarket account alone pocketing about $560k. Separately, a user named “Magamyman” reportedly gained $515k from single-day bets. The trades triggered accusations of insider trading from US lawmakers, sparking calls for new legislation such as the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act. Regulators and platforms reacted: Kalshi suspended and penalized two users, the CFTC warned that such trades may violate US law, and six Democratic senators requested enforcement against contracts that incentivize harm. Also noted: Hyperliquid’s oil-linked perpetuals and native token HYPE saw price and open-interest surges amid the event. Key figures include lawmakers Mike Levin, Chris Murphy and Ruben Gallego. Implications center on regulatory risk for prediction markets, potential enforcement actions, and reputational pressure that could reduce liquidity and participant confidence. Traders should watch regulatory responses, platform enforcement, and on-chain analytics signals that may presage rapid flows into geopolitical contracts.
El Salvador’s Bitcoin Office posted on X that the country increased its holdings by 30 BTC over the past 30 days, bringing total reserves to 7,577.37 BTC (about $504 million). This confirms continued sovereign accumulation of Bitcoin but at a modest pace; no details were provided on purchase timing, price, or funding sources and no policy changes were announced. For traders, the update signals ongoing state-level demand for BTC but the incremental purchase is small relative to global BTC liquidity and unlikely to move markets immediately. Key SEO keywords: El Salvador, Bitcoin, BTC holdings, sovereign accumulation, market impact.
Neutral
El SalvadorBitcoinBTC holdingssovereign accumulationmarket impact
A newly created wallet (zt27jp) transferred 947 million PUMP tokens—approximately $1.86 million—out of the Bybit exchange over the past two days, according to on-chain monitoring by Lookonchain. The activity was first reported on March 2, 2026. No additional context about the wallet’s ownership, destination addresses, or intent (e.g., sell-off, redistribution, or project activity) was provided. The report is presented as market information and not investment advice. Primary keywords: PUMP token, Bybit withdrawal, on-chain monitoring.
A previously inactive wallet (0x1C70) resumed activity over the past five hours, spending 1,000,000 USDC to purchase tokenized gold assets PAXG and XAUT, according to Lookonchain. The address still holds roughly 4,000,000 USDC, indicating potential for continued accumulation. No additional identities or counterparties were disclosed. The report is a market information update and not investment advice. Primary keywords: PAXG, XAUT, USDC, wallet activity, tokenized gold. Secondary keywords: Lookonchain, accumulation, stablecoin, on-chain monitoring.
A Korea Financial Consumer Foundation survey finds 50% of South Korean adults have invested in cryptocurrencies, making digital assets the nation’s second-most popular investment after stocks. Adoption is broadening beyond young men: people in their 30s show the highest participation rate, while the fastest growth is among women and older age groups. Average holdings among older investors have risen about 2.3x since 2023. Small-scale investors (holdings <1 million KRW, ≈$750) account for 25.3% of respondents, while mid- and large-scale holdings make up the remainder. Drivers include high smartphone/internet penetration, digital-culture familiarity, regulatory reforms (real-name trading, stricter exchange rules), and CBDC discussions that have normalized digital money. South Korea’s 50% adoption rate outpaces many developed markets and concentrates activity on domestic exchanges such as Upbit and Bithumb. Implications include greater retail exposure of household wealth to crypto volatility, growing institutional offerings (custody, funds), and an evolving tax and regulatory environment. Short-term risks remain from market volatility and unclear taxation; long-term trends point to continued mainstreaming, increased institutional participation, and a shift in national wealth allocation away from traditional assets like real estate.
Neutral
South KoreaCrypto adoptionRetail investorsRegulationMarket trends
XAG/USD surged toward $95/oz after a sharp safe‑haven bid amid escalating Middle East hostilities. Trading volume for silver futures and ETFs rose over 40% in 48 hours, with COMEX registered inventories declining and key resistance at $92.50 breached. Analysts note silver’s higher volatility versus gold during risk‑off moves; algorithmic and institutional buying intensified on the technical breakout. Drivers include geopolitical risk, rising oil and inflation expectations, a slightly weaker US dollar, and expectations of a Fed pause that reduce real yields. Structural support comes from industrial demand—especially photovoltaics—where IEA forecasts solar capacity growth supporting long‑term silver consumption. Technicals show moving averages turned bullish and $95 acting as a critical battleground; a sustained close above could target $100, while $92.50 is immediate support. Risks: rapid de‑escalation, a stronger dollar, hawkish central bank comments, profit‑taking, or recycling supply. CFTC COT data indicate managed money net‑longs but not at extreme levels, implying room for further positioning. Traders should watch geopolitical developments, Fed signals, COMEX inventory data, oil prices and the gold‑silver ratio for near‑term direction. This is market commentary, not trading advice.
EUR/USD is testing a critical support at 1.1770 that aligns with the 200‑day moving average, key Fibonacci retracement levels and prior resistance-turned-support. Technical indicators show weakening momentum (RSI ~42) and higher volume on down moves, suggesting institutional selling. A confirmed daily close below 1.1770 would likely target 1.1690 (61.8% Fib) and possibly 1.1500. Fundamentals reinforce downside risk: the Fed’s relatively hawkish stance vs. the ECB, stronger US Q4 2024 GDP (0.8% vs Eurozone 0.2%), higher US manufacturing PMI (52.1 vs 47.5), and European energy/security concerns. Commitment of Traders data indicate elevated net-short euro positions among hedge funds and asset managers; options skew favors puts below 1.1700, raising implied volatility and downside gamma risk. Traders should await confirmation (follow‑through and volume) before shifting strategies from range‑bound to trend‑following, adjust position sizing, widen stops to account for greater volatility, and monitor Fed/ECB guidance, major economic releases, and institutional flows. Keywords: EUR/USD, 1.1770 support, 200-day moving average, Fibonacci, Fed vs ECB, institutional positioning, forex volatility.
The Japanese yen has continued a multi-week decline against the US dollar, with USD/JPY trading around 158.50 and approaching the 159.20–159.50 zone where authorities previously intervened. This depreciation persists despite escalating Middle East tensions that historically support safe-haven currencies. Key drivers include the Bank of Japan’s ultra‑accommodative policy and negative rates, a wide US–Japan yield differential (JGB 10y at c.0.85%), Japan’s heavy dependence on Middle Eastern energy (roughly 90% of crude imports), and large carry-trade flows using the yen as funding. Technicals show a bearish structure: USD/JPY trading above major moving averages, increased volumes (~18% above quarterly average), heavier speculative long-dollar positioning, and rising options demand for USD calls/JPY puts. Constraints on policy response include limited practical intervention capacity, international coordination challenges, and risks of premature BOJ tightening harming fragile growth. Short-term triggers to monitor: moves above the 159.20–159.50 intervention band, JGB yields breaching BOJ’s tolerance (near 1.0%), and spikes in shipping/energy costs from Middle East disruption. For traders, the situation implies sustained dollar strength and asymmetric risk—higher probability of further USD/JPY appreciation and continued yen weakness until BOJ policy shifts, intervention, or a material de‑escalation in energy risk alters fundamentals. This dynamic also means funding-cost-sensitive instruments and carry trades may amplify volatility in risk asset flows.
Bearish
USD/JPYJapanese YenForex InterventionBank of JapanEnergy Geopolitics
Crypto analyst Crypto Tice identifies a structural resemblance between Bitcoin’s current price cycle and the run-up to the 2022 bear market, characterising the present phase as a "relief rally." Using weekly charts from 2021–2027, Tice highlights two double-top cycles: an initial peak, a second summit, a steep retreat, then a short-lived recovery before a prolonged bear phase. In the current cycle Bitcoin reportedly peaked near $100,000 in 2024, rose to about $126,000 in late 2025, then fell back to the $60,000 range — now sitting in a potential relief rally. Tice cautions this pattern signals the possibility of another sharp decline if history repeats, though a sustained breakout to new all-time highs would invalidate the comparison. Key macro and policy events — notably the Federal Reserve interest-rate decision in March, progress on the Clarity Act, and geopolitical developments — are cited as likely determinants of the rally’s outcome. Tice stresses that pattern recognition informs market phase awareness and risk management but does not equal precise price prediction. The article includes a reminder that this is not investment advice.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin said account abstraction (smart accounts) is expected to launch within a year with the Hegota fork. He cited EIP-8141 as a comprehensive proposal resolving remaining issues for Account Abstraction (AA), introducing a “frame” transaction model where a transaction is a series of frames that can reference data and identify senders or gas payers. The design enables smart accounts to support multisig, post-quantum-resistant wallets, key rotation, batched operations, and sponsored transactions via paymaster contracts or dedicated DEXs that fund gas in real time. Buterin argued AA aligns with Ethereum’s core principle of minimizing intermediaries and improves UX for privacy protocols by replacing public broadcasters (e.g., Railgun, Tornado Cash) with a general public mempool. The Ethereum Foundation’s Strawmap expects native AA in H2 2026. Buterin also published a roadmap for post-quantum defenses focusing on validator signatures, data storage, user account signatures, and zero-knowledge proofs, and noted long-term scaling may shorten slot and finality times.
Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3 and prominent Bitcoin proponent, says Bitcoin (BTC) appears materially undervalued versus gold and global money supply, which may foreshadow a price reversal. Mow cites the BTC/gold Z‑score — a normalized measure of deviation from its historical mean — currently near -1.24 and estimates BTC is 24%–66% below its trendline versus gold or global money supply. He notes past instances when the Z‑score dropped below -2 (March 2020, Nov 2022) preceded major BTC rallies (+300% and +150% within ~12 months respectively). The latest article adds tokenized and futures gold price references (gold futures ≈ $5,247.90; PAX Gold USD ≈ $5,404.14) and reiterates short‑term headwinds: geopolitical tensions, weak investor confidence, and potential Mt. Gox restitution selling. Technicals cited include BTC trading around $65–66k after a >50% drawdown from highs, RSI near oversold levels (~39), bearish Supertrend and downtrend, supports near $64.4k and $60k, and resistance around $67.7k–$68.4k (EMA20). Divergent analyst views remain — some forecast a drop toward $50k. Key takeaways for traders: monitor the BTC/gold Z‑score for a move below -2 as a historically bullish medium‑term signal; track gold strength and macro/geopolitical developments that could limit upside; use strict risk management given high volatility and conflicting analyst forecasts. This is market commentary and not investment advice.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argues that extended US military involvement in Iran increases fiscal strain, raising the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will need to ease policy or expand the money supply. Hayes links this ’war → money printing → Bitcoin rally’ chain and advises traders to wait for Fed rate cuts or explicit liquidity expansion before aggressively buying Bitcoin and select altcoins like HYPE (Hyperliquid). He notes recent market volatility after the US–Israel operation ’Epic Fury’—BTC briefly fell below $63,500 before rebounding toward $68,000 following news of Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei’s death. Hayes highlights his personal HYPE position (~205,000 HYPE worth about $6.12M) and a public $100k wager that HYPE will outperform $1B+ market cap altcoins by end of July. His recommended strategy: avoid panic-selling on short-term geopolitical shocks and use Fed policy shift (rate cuts/QE or Reserve Management Purchases) as the primary entry signal for longer-term crypto accumulation.
As US-Israel tensions with Iran escalated, traders moved to 24/7 on-chain markets to hedge geopolitical risk, driving up perpetual futures on crypto-native exchange Hyperliquid. Oil perpetuals rose about 5% to $70.6/barrel, gold and silver perpetuals increased ~1.3% and ~2% to $5,323/oz and $94.9/oz respectively. Silver led commodity perpetual volumes with over $227 million traded in 24 hours; gold saw roughly $173 million. U.S.-equity-related indices on the platform fell 0.4–0.75%. Market participants quoted by Bloomberg framed the flows as validation that round-the-clock, cross-asset on-chain trading is inevitable: Wintermute’s OTC head said Bitcoin has become a proxy for broader open-market risk, arguing more asset classes need 24/7 trading; Felix’s cofounder called it a macro shift in global market operations; QFEX’s CEO noted price volatility never sleeps. The report underscores growing use of crypto venues for immediate, always-on hedging during geopolitical shocks. This article provides market data and commentary only and is not investment advice.
February crypto venture funding totaled $883 million, but deal activity fell to its lowest level in 5.5 years, according to The Block data cited by crypto commentator YashasEdu. Total funding is roughly 80% below the 2022 peak. Capital is concentrating in a few niches—stablecoin infrastructure, custody and compliance tooling. Tokens launched in 2025 underperformed: 85% traded below their opening price. Venture capital sentiment has shifted toward revenue-focused narratives. Key takeaways for traders: funding amount alone masks declining breadth of VC participation; concentration into specific infrastructure sectors may indicate durable institutional interest there; weak token launch performance suggests caution on new token listings and initial valuations.