The XRP Ledger (XRPL) added about $354 million in tokenized real‑world assets (RWAs) over the past 30 days, lifting its total on‑chain RWA value and moving XRPL into sixth place among blockchains by tokenized asset value. The recent surge allowed XRPL to surpass Solana (SOL) and close the gap with BNB Chain, which remains fifth. The ranking aggregates distributed and represented assets and excludes stablecoins. This growth occurred despite a decline in XRP’s spot price during the same window, suggesting issuance and infrastructure activity — not short‑term token performance — drove the increase. Earlier reporting noted a 15.37% month‑over‑month rise (to roughly $1.5 billion in total tokenized assets on XRPL); the later update quantifies the 30‑day inflow as $354 million and clarifies XRPL’s sixth‑place standing. For traders, the move signals accelerating tokenization activity on XRPL that could support on‑chain utility and institutional interest; continued shifts in rankings will depend on further RWA issuance, valuation changes, and adoption by asset managers.
CoinShares announced its latest financial results showing total assets under management (AUM) of $7.4 billion as of December 31, 2025. Physical digital asset ETPs accounted for $2.8 billion of AUM and recorded net inflows of $662 million in H2 2025 despite an overall crypto market decline. The board approved a pre-merger cash dividend of $0.33 per share, totaling approximately $21.5 million, to be paid before the completion of the merger with Vine Hill Capital Investment Corp. The disclosure highlights continued investor demand for CoinShares’ ETP products and the firm’s capital return amid consolidation activity. Key keywords: CoinShares, AUM, ETP, dividend, merger, Vine Hill.
BNP Paribas economists warn that China’s economy is undergoing a sustained slowdown that poses growing export risks and could reshape global supply chains in 2025–2027. Key datapoints: manufacturing PMI has contracted for seven months, industrial production growth slowed to 4.2% YoY, and retail sales and fixed-asset investment growth have weakened. BNP projects GDP growth of about 4.5–5.0% for 2025 and forecasts export growth sliding to roughly 2.5–3.5% in 2025. The bank’s export-risk model highlights three drivers: geopolitical tensions (tariffs, carbon border measures), supply-chain diversification (China-Plus-One moves to Vietnam, India, Mexico, Eastern Europe), and rising competition in textiles and electronics from lower-cost producers. Technology exports—especially semiconductors—face pronounced pressure from export controls. BNP sees potential sector winners in EVs and renewable equipment but notes regulatory and market barriers abroad. Market reactions include commodity price volatility, pressure on Asian emerging-market currencies, moderated shipping volumes and slower capital expenditure in Chinese manufacturing. Policy responses from China include targeted monetary easing, fiscal and infrastructure support, property regulation adjustments, and efforts to deepen regional trade ties. BNP outlines three scenarios: baseline (4.5–5.0% growth), upside (tech-driven rebound), and downside (worsening trade tensions and deeper property adjustments). For traders, the report implies higher sensitivity in commodity markets, Asian FX and equities to Chinese growth signals, and continued corporate repositioning of supply chains that may shift long-term cross-border investment flows.
Bearish
China economyexport risksupply chainmanufacturing PMIglobal trade
World Liberty Financial withdrew 313.31 million WLFI tokens (≈$33.76 million) from Binance to a private wallet over an 11-hour period, according to Onchain Lens. Large withdrawals from centralized exchanges often indicate long-term custody or staking intentions and reduce immediate sell-side liquidity on order books. The methodical 11-hour transfer suggests a deliberate treasury or custody strategy rather than rapid movement for liquidation. Following the news, WLFI trading volume rose about 15% and price remained above key supports. Analysts view the move as a positive signal for WLFI tokenomics and market confidence but caution that one on-chain event alone does not guarantee future price appreciation; traders should also monitor trading volumes, network activity, broader market conditions and any subsequent exchange flows. Primary keywords: WLFI, World Liberty Financial, Binance withdrawal. Secondary/semantic keywords: tokenomics, exchange flows, on-chain analytics, custody, staking.
Bullish
WLFIWorld Liberty FinancialBinance withdrawalon-chain analyticstokenomics
TRUMP, the Solana-based Official Trump memecoin, has plunged roughly 95% from its all-time high and remains under strong downside pressure. Recent price action saw a brief bounce into a daily supply zone at $3.57–$4.09 (peaking at $3.64 on Feb 14) before a ~7% rejection to about $3.38 and the likelihood of testing the $3.00 round number support. Short-term technicals on the 1-hour chart turned bearish after repeated rejections at the $3.58 (78.6% retracement) level; Fibonacci extensions point to immediate targets near $3.29 and $3.07. An upcoming 6.33 million TRUMP token unlock could add selling pressure. Broader catalysts weigh negative: Bitcoin weakness and a Congressional probe into World Liberty Financial (WLFI) — a Trump-linked entity under scrutiny for a reported $500m foreign investment — have reduced risk appetite. Indicators are mixed: short-term On-Balance Volume (OBV) showed a week-long uptick, but higher-timeframe OBV lows, a very low daily Relative Strength Index (RSI ~20), and bearish daily market structure signal continued downside bias. Possible short-term relief targets exist at $3.57–$4.09 and $4.40–$4.72, but these are likely supply zones that could prompt further rejections. A sustained recovery would probably require a strong Bitcoin rally (discussion centered on ~$74,000), which currently appears unlikely. Traders should expect high volatility, prioritize risk management, and treat short-term OBV rises cautiously given the dominant bearish higher-timeframe structure.
The U.S. Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals denied Kalshi’s emergency administrative request to block Nevada enforcement, allowing Nevada regulators to file a civil lawsuit and seek a temporary restraining order that could halt Kalshi’s operations in the state. Nevada alleges Kalshi’s event-based contracts—especially sports-related markets—constitute illegal sports betting under state law. The decision is procedural, not a final judgment on legality, but it removes a federal barrier and may encourage other states to pursue similar enforcement. Industry experts warn this could create a regulatory patchwork complicating nationwide operations for prediction-market platforms. Key implications for traders: increased regulatory risk for event-based contracts, potential market access restrictions, and heightened legal uncertainty for platforms positioning contracts as financial instruments rather than wagers. Short-term effects may include heightened volatility and trading restrictions in affected jurisdictions; long-term outcomes depend on state court rulings and possible legislative or federal clarifications. Primary keywords: Kalshi, Nevada lawsuit, prediction markets, sports betting, regulatory risk. Secondary/semantic keywords included: event-based contracts, enforcement action, Ninth Circuit, temporary restraining order, jurisdictional uncertainty.
Financial author Robert Kiyosaki renewed warnings that the biggest stock market crash in history may be approaching and urged investors to shift capital from what he calls “fake” traditional assets into “real” stores of value such as gold, silver, Ethereum (ETH) and especially Bitcoin (BTC). He highlights Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million supply and frames market downturns as buying opportunities — saying he will buy more BTC during price drops and has been reallocating into gold, silver and crypto to hedge against broad economic weakness. Kiyosaki also singles out silver as undervalued and expects substantial upside. Traders should note his emphasis on accumulating scarce and liquid assets amid anticipated volatility: increased demand for BTC and ETH could occur during risk-off episodes as investors seek hard assets and crypto as alternative hedges. Keywords: Bitcoin, BTC, Ethereum, ETH, silver, gold, market crash, crypto hedge, volatility.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the official cash rate at 5.50%, marking a fourth consecutive hold as Governor Sarah Breman addresses persistently elevated inflation. The Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to maintain the current stance, citing gradual improvement in inflation, subdued economic growth, and global uncertainty. Annual CPI remains above target at 3.8%. Key sector annual changes: food +4.2%, housing +3.9%, transportation +5.1%, services +4.4%. Markets reacted mildly: NZD strengthened slightly, bond yields stable, equities little changed. The RBNZ highlighted close monitoring of domestic demand, employment, wages and international commodity prices; forward guidance is data-dependent with potential adjustments later in 2025. Growth forecasts were trimmed (2025 GDP ~1.2%) and unemployment is expected to rise to about 4.5%. The decision preserves mortgage and deposit rate stability but keeps pressure on household budgets and business investment decisions. Traders should watch upcoming inflation prints, labor data, and global monetary moves for signals on possible rate cuts or further tightening. Primary keywords: RBNZ interest rates, official cash rate, inflation New Zealand; secondary keywords: Governor Sarah Breman, CPI, monetary policy, NZD reaction.
Uranium market specialist Justin Huhn (Uranium Insider Pro) says the uranium market is tightening and appears to be shifting back toward long‑term utility contracting. Physical uranium prices have rallied — US$91/lb on the UX spot print, up from low US$80s earlier in the year — and momentum in the physical market is strong. Huhn warns of a potential supply squeeze as Wall Street becomes aware of tightening fundamentals. He notes recent regulatory and financing moves (shelf prospectus/ATM re‑establishment) that affect how companies can buy pounds and raise capital, and says miners’ stocks have largely priced in future uranium upside. Risk is seen as limited: Huhn estimates downside for spot uranium at roughly 15–20% in a sharp risk‑off scenario, and places a new spot floor in the mid–high US$80s with high confidence that spot will move higher. Given recent gains in uranium equities, Huhn is trimming some positions to manage risk despite a bullish long‑term view. Key takeaways for traders: physical uranium tightness and rising spot fundamentals support further price appreciation; miner equities may already reflect future spot moves; expect regulatory and financing developments to drive near‑term flows; manage position size after a strong run and monitor physical inventories and utility contracting activity.
MicroStrategy chairman Michael Saylor advised investor Ray Dalio that Bitcoin should be owned as insurance against systemic breakdowns in international order. Speaking in a public discussion, Saylor argued Bitcoin’s fixed supply and censorship resistance make it a superior store of value if fiat systems or global institutions falter. He framed Bitcoin as a hedge similar to “digital gold,” suitable for preserving wealth amid geopolitical or monetary instability. The exchange highlighted enduring debates between macro investors about Bitcoin’s role in portfolios and risk management, with Saylor emphasizing adoption and structural properties rather than short-term price trading. Key figures: Michael Saylor and Ray Dalio. Main theme: Bitcoin as an insurance hedge against systemic and geopolitical risk. Keywords: Bitcoin, store of value, hedge, systemic risk, Michael Saylor, Ray Dalio.
Bullish
BitcoinStore of ValueMacro InvestingSystemic RiskMichael Saylor
The Office for National Statistics will publish UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday, a key test for the Pound Sterling amid mounting economic pressures. Traders will focus on headline CPI, core CPI (which excludes food and energy) and services inflation—seen as a gauge of domestic wage pressure. Recent figures show headline CPI at 3.2% month-on-month and 10.1% year-on-year, core CPI at 4.2% month-on-month and 6.2% year-on-year, and services inflation around 6.0% (month) / 6.9% (year). The Bank of England’s 2.0% inflation target means deviations will influence interest-rate expectations and capital flows. Higher-than-expected inflation typically strengthens GBP by boosting prospects for tighter monetary policy; lower readings weaken it. The Pound is already under pressure from slower GDP growth, political uncertainty, current-account deficits and less hawkish BoE guidance versus peers (notably the US Federal Reserve). Market mechanics to expect on release day: rapid algorithmic price moves, spikes in volatility and liquidity changes; many traders reduce positions, use options for volatility plays, or wait for follow-through after initial moves. Major banks (Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan) emphasize services inflation and wage growth as decisive for the Bank of England. For FX traders, the CPI release is a high-impact event: prepare for fast, potentially large moves in GBP pairs (especially GBP/USD and GBP/EUR), manage risk with position sizing and stops, and consider volatility strategies (e.g., options) if seeking asymmetric exposure.
Neutral
UK CPIPound SterlingInflationBank of EnglandForex Volatility
The Japanese yen strengthened above 153.00 against the US dollar after Economic Revitalization Minister Sanae Takaichi presented an optimistic economic assessment to the National Press Club. Takaichi cited rising wage growth (spring negotiations averaging ~3.7%), improving consumer spending, resilient exports and inflation remaining above 2% for 24 months — factors traders interpreted as signalling potential Bank of Japan policy normalization. USD/JPY traded intraday near 153.40 and settled at 152.85. Market reaction included heavy yen buying, increased options and futures volume, and modest pressure on the US Dollar Index (DXY). Key economic data supporting the move included a 2.4% unemployment rate, 3.2% month-on-month industrial production growth and 2.1% year-on-year retail sales gains. Analysts noted the shift from the recent 154.00–155.50 range and highlighted psychological levels at 153.00 (now support) and 154.50–155.00 (resistance). Risks that could reverse the move include energy-price volatility, geopolitical shocks and the timing or pace of BOJ normalization. Traders should watch upcoming BOJ communications, CPI and wage data for confirmation. (Main keyword: Japanese yen; secondary keywords: USD/JPY, Bank of Japan, wage growth, inflation.)
Bridge, the stablecoin platform acquired by Stripe, received conditional approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to form a federally chartered national trust bank. The February 12 conditional ok follows Bridge’s October application and would allow the firm to custody digital assets, issue stablecoins, and manage reserves under federal banking supervision once finalized. Bridge says it will operate under the GENIUS stablecoin framework (the new U.S. law tightening reserve and oversight rules) and aims to provide regulatory infrastructure to fintechs, crypto firms and corporates seeking digital dollar rails. The move fits a broader trend of conditional OCC approvals for crypto custody and stablecoin businesses (Ripple, Circle, BitGo, Fidelity Digital Assets, Paxos), though regulators and groups like the American Bankers Association have urged caution and clearer GENIUS rules. For traders, a federal charter for a stablecoin issuer can reduce regulatory uncertainty, support stablecoin liquidity and interoperability with traditional banks, and — if finalized — may bolster adoption of dollar-pegged tokens for payments and settlement across on‑ and off‑chain markets.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 5.50% at its upcoming meeting, with markets and economists focused on the Monetary Policy Statement and projected OCR track for clues on future hikes. Inflation sits at 4.2% year-on-year—above the 1–3% target but down from a 2023 peak of 7.3%—while GDP growth has slowed to 1.8% and unemployment remains tight at 4.1%, sustaining wage pressures. International influences (higher US rates, Australia’s tightening, China’s demand) and a split between non-tradable inflation (5.1%) and tradable inflation (2.8%) complicate decisions. Market pricing shows low immediate odds of a hike but rising probability by May. Key channels for policy transmission include mortgage rates (two-year fixed ~7.2%), NZD FX moves, and government bond yields. The RBNZ’s forward guidance and projected OCR path will be decisive for financial markets; a hawkish tilt would strengthen NZD and push up yields, while dovish signals could ease rate expectations and benefit risk assets. Traders should watch the Monetary Policy Statement, OCR projection, and language on domestic vs. external risks for short-term FX, bond, and interest-rate-sensitive crypto market reactions.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is widely expected to deliver a potential final 25-basis-point cut to the overnight reverse repurchase rate, lowering the policy rate from 6.00% to an estimated 5.75% as of March 2025. Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman and local banks point to moderating inflation (headline 3.2% YoY, core 3.5%, food inflation 4.1%), resilient GDP growth (Q4 2024 at 5.8%; Q1 2025 est. 6.0%), and a negative output gap and sustainable credit growth as reasons supporting one more easing move. External factors—US Fed policy, China’s recovery, and regional central bank actions—could constrain further cuts due to capital flow and peso volatility risks. Markets may react with positive sentiment for equities (interest-sensitive sectors, property, and consumer stocks) and increased bond demand (yields adjusting downward), while the peso could face moderate depreciation pressure. Real economy effects include cheaper credit for SMEs and households, but lower deposit rates for savers; transmission to activity typically shows a 3–6 month lag. Traders should watch the Monetary Board’s forward guidance and FX reserve posture (reserves near $104bn) for signals on whether easing ends or leaves room for future moves. This decision is a key inflection point for policy normalization and market positioning in the Philippines.
Neutral
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinasinterest rate cutPhilippine economyinflationmonetary policy
GBP/JPY has plunged after the Bank of Japan signalled a shift away from decades of ultra-loose policy, prompting traders to price in tighter monetary policy and reduced rate differentials. BoJ communications — including Governor Kazuo Ueda’s comments on rising wage pressures and services inflation — plus signals of adjustments to yield curve control and narrower JGB-Gilts yields prompted unwinding of long carry positions. Technical selling accelerated after breaks below the 50- and 200-day moving averages with higher volume, and COT data show institutional accumulation of short positions. Weaker UK data (soft retail sales, stagnant GDP, softer PMIs) and a cautious Bank of England stance, along with global risk-off flows, reinforced yen strength. Major banks (Nomura, MUFG, Morgan Stanley Securities) point to JGB yield moves as the main driver. Traders should prioritise BoJ communications (JGB purchases, Tankan, Governor Ueda remarks), Japan CPI and wage prints (Shunto outcomes), and UK CPI/wages and services data to gauge whether this is a sustained trend or a correction. Near-term effects include higher FX volatility, wider options premia and potential cost/earnings pressures for cross-border businesses. Key keywords: GBP/JPY, Bank of Japan, Japanese yen, forex volatility, yield curve control.
Bearish
GBP/JPYBank of JapanJapanese yenForex volatilityYield curve control
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 8, signaling “Extreme Fear” across crypto markets. The index is a weighted composite of volatility (25%), market volume/momentum (25%), social media sentiment (15%), surveys (15%), Bitcoin dominance (10%) and Google Trends (10%). Readings in the single digits have occurred before (March 2020 = 8; June 2022 = 6) but produced mixed outcomes. Current drivers include persistent macro headwinds (inflation, tight central-bank policy), regulatory uncertainty and post-bull-market consolidation; the latest update shows broadly negative signals across most components. Analysts treat such readings as contrarian indicators that may precede recoveries once selling pressure eases, but warn they are not reliable standalone trading signals. Traders are advised to confirm with on-chain metrics (exchange flows, miner and holder behavior, realized price, TVL), monitor Bitcoin dominance shifts, and watch macro developments (rate decisions, inflation data) or adoption catalysts that could flip sentiment. Market effects tied to extreme fear include lower liquidity, higher sensitivity to negative news, fragile rallies, reduced capital flow into altcoins and DeFi, falling NFT volumes, and elevated liquidation risk for leveraged positions. Practical guidance: maintain strict risk management, prefer tactical trades over momentum chasing, and look for a sustained move above ~25 on the index along with corroborating on-chain/macro signals before increasing exposure.
Bearish
Fear & Greed IndexMarket SentimentBitcoin dominanceOn-chain metricsVolatility
K3 Capital, a London-based investment firm, purchased 20,000 ETH (≈$40.08 million) from Binance on Feb 15, 2025, according to blockchain analytics provider Onchain Lens. The transaction used a single transfer from Binance’s hot wallet to a K3-verified corporate address at an average execution price of ~$2,004 per ETH and incurred roughly $850 in gas fees (≈112.5 Gwei). Onchain Lens verified the link via address clustering, historical pattern matching and correlation with K3’s known treasury infrastructure; multiple explorers confirmed inclusion in block 21,450,892.
Key trading-relevant facts: the purchase equals ~0.017% of ETH’s circulating supply and represented about 18.5% of Binance’s average daily ETH volume that day. The ETH remains in the receiving wallet and hasn’t been moved to staking or DeFi contracts, suggesting a strategic treasury allocation rather than short-term trading. Market reaction was muted — ETH rose ~1.8% in the 24 hours after the transaction — but analysts note the psychological and signalling effects of verified institutional buys.
Context: the purchase aligns with 2025 institutional trends driven by clearer regulation, improved custody infrastructure and Ethereum’s staking yields (reported ~3.5–5.2% annually). K3’s history shows growing crypto allocations since 2018 and a multi-strategy approach (direct holdings, staking, selective DeFi via institutional intermediaries). Traders should watch for follow-on institutional activity, potential reductions in available sell-side liquidity at specific levels, and whether K3 shifts holdings to staking or derivatives. This is informational and not trading advice.
The Ninth Circuit denied prediction-market operator Kalshi’s emergency request for an administrative stay, removing a temporary barrier to Nevada enforcement. Without the stay, Nevada may file a civil enforcement action and seek a temporary restraining order that could force Kalshi to cease operations in the state within days. The core dispute is whether Kalshi’s event-based contracts are regulated as federally supervised derivatives by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) — which Kalshi argues preempts state action — or whether states can treat them as unlawful sports betting or gaming. Legal experts say Kalshi could pursue an emergency application to the U.S. Supreme Court’s shadow docket to block enforcement, but that step is discretionary and not guaranteed. The Ninth Circuit’s procedural decision does not resolve the substantive jurisdictional question; it shifts near-term leverage to Nevada and raises the likelihood of rapid state enforcement absent immediate Supreme Court intervention.
AMD Chair and CEO Lisa Su told a16z Live that artificial intelligence will be foundational in every AMD product going forward. She said generative AI has accelerated adoption by making AI more accessible, and that high-performance computing (HPC) is critical for training large models with hundreds of billions to trillions of parameters. Su emphasized industry collaboration and open ecosystems — including adoption of open hardware standards — as essential because no single company can address all compute needs. She also noted that different applications will require tailored AI engines and form factors, and that companies increasingly value speed and adaptability over protecting legacy moats. Key themes: AI-first product strategy, importance of HPC for model training, open standards/interoperability, and partnerships across the semiconductor ecosystem.
A US man from Glendale was sentenced to 57 months in federal prison for operating on dark-web marketplaces selling multiple illegal drugs and accepting cryptocurrency payments, the Department of Justice reported. Authorities stated the illicit transactions were settled in cryptocurrencies. The case is part of a multi-agency operation targeting transnational crime, drug networks and human smuggling that rely on dark-web structures and crypto-based supply chains. No specific cryptocurrencies or amounts were disclosed in the announcement. The action underscores ongoing law enforcement focus on darknet markets and crypto-enabled criminal activity.
Neutral
dark webcryptocurrencydrug traffickinglaw enforcementDoJ
The IMF, in its latest Article IV statement on Japan, urged authorities not to cut the consumption tax, warning that such a non-targeted measure would erode fiscal space and heighten fiscal risks. The fund projects that interest costs on Japan’s outstanding public debt could double by 2031 compared with 2025 as maturing debt is refinanced at higher yields. The IMF said elevated and persistent debt levels combined with deteriorating fiscal balances leave Japan vulnerable to shocks. Its staff forecast assumes the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will raise policy rates twice this year and once more in 2027 (note: the original article text says “next year” but also references 2027), aligning broadly with Japanese government estimates. The statement highlights fiscal sustainability concerns and cautions against measures that would worsen debt dynamics. (Market note: informational only — not investment advice.)
Neutral
IMFBank of JapanMonetary policyJapan fiscal riskInterest rates
Standard Chartered sharply lowered its year-end 2026 price target for XRP from $8.00 to $2.80 (a 65% cut), citing weak recent price action, macro uncertainty, tighter liquidity and falling institutional inflows. Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, communicated the revision. At publication XRP traded around $1.46–$1.48. The bank also trimmed 2026 targets for other major tokens — Bitcoin (BTC) to $100,000 from $150,000, Ether (ETH) to $4,000 from $7,000, and Solana (SOL) to $135 from $250 — reflecting a broader reassessment of risk assets. SoSoValue data cited by the report show XRP-linked ETP holdings fell from roughly $1.6 billion on Jan. 5 to about $1.0 billion by mid-February (~40% decline), underlining reduced institutional demand. Despite the near-term downgrade, Standard Chartered remains constructive on XRP’s long-term role in settlement infrastructure and tokenized real-world assets, maintaining a 2030 price forecast of $28.00. For traders, the update combines a major institutional price cut with evidence of ongoing outflows and fragile liquidity — implying elevated short-term downside risk, the possibility of corrective relief rallies, and a longer-term recovery scenario contingent on market stabilization and renewed institutional inflows. Key trade considerations: reduce position size or tighten stops in the near term, watch ETP flows and liquidity metrics, and treat rebounds cautiously until structural levels and ETF/ETP inflows improve.
Bearish
XRPStandard Charteredprice targetETP flowsinstitutional outlook
Market analyst Eze Wilberforce of Leaftin argues that extreme market fear may precede a strong crypto recovery in 2026, potentially benefiting tokens like Shiba Inu (SHIB). Citing historical cycles—Shiba Inu’s 2021 surge and Bitcoin’s 2020–21 breakout—Wilberforce points to the Crypto Fear Index reading of 5 as evidence of pervasive pessimism that often appears near market turning points. He attributes the next phase to structural liquidity realignment and broader capital flows rather than short-term sentiment. Industry figures (including Changpeng Zhao, Arthur Hayes, Raoul Pal, Charles Hoskinson, Brad Garlinghouse, and Tom Lee) are cited as proponents of a larger crypto ‘super cycle,’ with various bullish Bitcoin targets ranging from about $180,000 to $250,000. Current prices noted: Bitcoin near $67,900 and SHIB at approximately $0.000006552. Wilberforce and others stress no guarantees: short-term volatility and external risks remain, but prolonged negative sentiment plus improving macro liquidity could set the stage for a multi-asset rally in 2026.
Bullish
Shiba InuSHIBCrypto Fear IndexBitcoin priceMarket sentiment
DEEP jumped ~12% to $0.032 after breaking above a multi-month descending channel on the daily chart. Price reclaimed the $0.031–$0.033 zone, shifting short-term momentum to bulls, though 24h spot volume fell ~36%, raising questions about conviction. Technical indicators show a strengthening trend: +DI (~23) edges -DI (~21) and ADX at 26, suggesting trend intensity is improving. Derivatives metrics show crowded short positioning on Binance (long/short ratio ~0.62; shorts >60%) and Open Interest rising ~9.3% to $11.46M, indicating fresh leveraged positions. The mix of low spot volume, a structural breakout, expanding OI, and heavy short exposure increases squeeze and volatility risk. Key levels: support at $0.021 (structural), breakout-support pivot $0.031–$0.033, and upside target/resistance near $0.06. For traders: a sustained hold above $0.031 could trigger short-covering and rapid upside; failure to hold may prompt sharp reversals as leveraged positions unwind.
Gemini Space Station Inc. announced a major leadership overhaul, international retreat and broad cost-cutting after reporting widening losses. A Form 8-K disclosed immediate departures of COO Marshall Beard (who also left the board), CFO Dan Chen and CLO Tyler Meade effective Feb. 17. No new COO will be hired; co-founder Cameron Winklevoss will absorb many COO duties. Chief Accounting Officer Danijela Stojanovic was promoted to interim CFO (with a stated $450,000 base salary and restricted stock units), and Kate Freedman was named interim general counsel. Separation agreements include transition periods with continued base pay and benefits but no additional incentive pay. The personnel moves accompany strategic retrenchment: Gemini will wind down operations in the UK, EU and Australia and cut about 25% of staff (roughly 200 roles) to reduce complexity and costs and “double down on America.” Unaudited preliminary 2025 figures show mixed user growth but heavy losses: monthly transacting users rose ~17% to ~600,000; projected net revenue $165–$175M (up from $141M in 2024) but operating costs may reach ~$530M, adjusted EBITDA loss around $260M and total net losses near $600M. Investors reacted negatively, with GEMI shares sliding roughly 9% in premarket trading. For traders: expect elevated short-term volatility in Gemini-related equities and heightened market scrutiny on crypto firms’ profitability and regional strategies. Key keywords: Gemini leadership change, job cuts, US refocus, IPO pressure, financial losses.
Ricardo Hausmann, former Venezuelan planning minister and Harvard professor, warns that Venezuela’s collapse from an AAA credit rating to default was driven by volatile oil prices combined with poor economic policy under Hugo Chávez. Key drivers cited include nationalisation of industries, strict exchange and price controls, concentration of oil revenues within the state, and constitutional changes that eroded checks and balances and business rights. Hausmann notes oil fell to about $8/barrel in the late 1990s, exposing the economy’s dependence on hydrocarbons and amplifying policy failures. He argues the country still has large diversification potential but has failed to manage oil-income volatility or create an environment supportive of private enterprise. The episode underlines the “resource curse” risk: natural-resource wealth does not guarantee public prosperity without rule of law, sound institutions and revenue management. For traders: the takeaways are structural — political risk, weak governance and commodity dependence can produce sovereign defaults, large capital controls and market distortions that affect capital flows and risk premia.
Maya’s branded credit card, Maya Black, won two Silver Anvil awards for “Best Use of Influencers” and “Launch Event” at the 61st Anvil Awards. Launched in August 2025, Maya Black marks the digital bank’s push into the credit card market as fintechs and banks in the Philippines compete to onboard first-time, mobile-first cardholders. The card integrates with the Maya app for digital applications, instant virtual issuance and a numberless physical card. Maya says it uses AI and alternative data for credit assessments to broaden access beyond traditional scoring. The campaign used lifestyle positioning and local celebrities (Julia Barretto, Maris Racal, Jericho Rosales) and rolled out from finance/tech media to lifestyle and creator channels. Maya did not disclose issuance figures or portfolio size. The move aligns with wider regional fintech trends where unsecured lending, credit cards and BNPL are key growth drivers. Maya is regulated by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and deposits are insured by PDIC up to ₱1 million per depositor.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), under new Governor Sarah Breman, has signalled a pause to the previously expected 2025 interest-rate easing cycle after fresh data showed inflation remains above target. Recent releases showed headline CPI and core measures running above the 1–3% target band, tight labour conditions (unemployment ~4.1%) and wage pressures. The Monetary Policy Committee said services and non-tradable inflation are persistent drivers, and that premature easing risks de-anchoring expectations. The RBNZ will adopt a meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach rather than a preset cut schedule and now expects inflation to return to target later than previously thought. Market reaction was immediate: traders pushed out expected first OCR cuts and the NZD strengthened, while mortgage holders face a longer period of high debt servicing costs and business investment may be delayed. For crypto traders, the main implications are: (1) a firmer NZD and higher short-term rates can tighten global risk appetite, pressuring risk assets including major cryptocurrencies; (2) delayed monetary easing reduces the near-term case for rate-sensitive, yield-chasing flows into crypto; and (3) key upcoming data — CPI, wage reports, RBNZ Monetary Policy Statements — will drive NZD direction and risk sentiment. Primary keywords: RBNZ, inflation, OCR, New Zealand dollar, interest rates. Semantic keywords included: CPI, trimmed mean, wage growth, services inflation, monetary policy, market reaction. Traders should monitor CPI prints, labour data, and NZD moves to adjust exposure to interest-rate-sensitive crypto positions.