A recent Salvadoran poll of 1,200 respondents reports President Nayib Bukele’s approval rating at 91.9%, with 62.8% expressing strong support and only 1.8% strongly opposing. Rising approval is credited mainly to improved security and falling crime. The survey also highlights a persistent gap between official policy and consumer behaviour: although Bitcoin (BTC) remains legal tender and the government continues accumulating BTC, public adoption for everyday transactions is limited and far from replacing the US dollar. Negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are ongoing. For traders, the combination of sustained government purchases, high political backing for BTC policy, and low retail uptake creates mixed signals for BTC price action — continued state accumulation may provide a steady bid, but weak domestic spending use reduces transactional demand and broader macro uncertainty tied to IMF talks could amplify volatility.
XRP has entered a volatile phase after sliding from a January peak near $2.40 to about $1.10 in early February. Several AI-driven analyses cited in the report highlight key technical levels and divergent scenarios: OpenAI/ChatGPT and Perplexity suggest the retreat exceeded a healthy correction and that losing supports at $1.50 and $1.30 could push XRP toward $0.85–$0.95. Gemini’s assessment places greater risk at the psychological $1.00 level, warning that a breach could trigger panic selling and a decline to roughly $0.60. Conversely, Grok (X platform) offers a cautiously bullish alternative, saying $1.10 may be a bottom and that XRP could trade sideways between $1.10–$1.45 unless it reclaims $1.50–$1.60 to resume an uptrend. All models agree that a sustained break below $1.00 would invalidate positive scenarios and likely accelerate a fall below $0.90. The article stresses that upcoming price action around $1.00 and resistance near $1.50–$1.60 will determine whether XRP stabilizes or resumes deeper losses. Disclaimer: this is market commentary, not investment advice.
Bearish
XRPRippleprice predictionstechnical support and resistanceAI market analysis
XDC Network (XDC) showed mixed signals: the token slipped 0.76% in 24 hours but gained 6.13% weekly, outperforming Bitcoin’s 12% weekly loss. On-chain metrics point to weak user activity — daily active users reportedly fell 84% from 2021 to about 45k — and spot trading volumes are cooling, though cumulative taker flow has moved from sell-dominant toward neutral over three weeks. Price was trading near $0.037 with analysts warning the bearish trend could retest the long-held $0.022 support (previously respected since June 2022), possibly leading to consolidation under $0.03 before any sustained recovery. Off-chain fundamentals include a successful hard fork on 30 Jan to strengthen infrastructure for real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, and a Brazil-focused partnership track: Liqi Digital Assets and XDC reported $100M in tokenized RWAs on XDC with a 2026 target of $500M, while a VERT Capital deal aims to tokenize $1B in debt and receivables. Traders should weigh easing selling pressure against low on-chain demand; a price bottom may still be weeks or months away.
MicroStrategy holds roughly $49.4 billion in Bitcoin reserves against about $8.2 billion of total debt, according to public disclosures. The company’s BTC valuation fluctuates with market prices but currently provides multiple times coverage over outstanding liabilities. Cash on hand sits near $2.25 billion, enough to cover approximately two years of the company’s preferred-stock dividend obligations (about $890 million annually) without needing to liquidate BTC. Major debt maturities do not arrive until September 2028, with further repayments in December 2029 and June 2032, giving MicroStrategy breathing room through the current market cycle. Management says dividends are planned to be funded from cash, not forced Bitcoin sales. Market concerns and social-media claims that the firm faces imminent bankruptcy during recent Bitcoin volatility appear overstated when measured against asset coverage, cash reserves and the debt maturity schedule. The article concludes that MicroStrategy’s structure reduces near-term solvency pressure, though prolonged severe BTC declines would increase risk over time.
A Maya Protocol contributor clarified in a Feb 8 Zcash community forum thread that cross‑chain “shielded” ZEC swaps cannot provide end‑to‑end privacy under the current design. While Zcash’s Orchard pool can hide sender, receiver and amounts within Zcash, cross‑chain swaps involve multiple transactions and a transparent counterpart chain (e.g., BTC, ETH) where amounts, timing and destination addresses remain visible. MayaChain’s swap coordination further exposes intent via memos and public indexing (Midgard API), creating metadata trails even when the ZEC leg is shielded. The forum discussion also highlighted custody constraints: fully holding and spending Orchard shielded funds in a distributed validator setup requires compatible threshold signing (e.g., FROST per ZIP‑312). Even with improved custody (threshold multisig), the non‑ZEC leg’s transparent settlement and coordination metadata preserve a privacy ceiling. The practical takeaway for users and reviewers: evaluate “shielded swap” claims by the full swap path, check boundary flows and transparent vault steps, verify implemented code and repositories, and inspect which memos and event traces are queryable. Keywords: shielded swaps, Zcash, ZEC, Maya Protocol, cross‑chain privacy, MAYAChain, Orchard, FROST.
South Korean exchange Bithumb said a promotional system error temporarily credited large Bitcoin balances to a small number of user accounts. The exchange restricted affected accounts within minutes, stabilized trading after brief sharp price swings on its platform, and confirmed the incident was not a hack and that no customer assets were lost. Bithumb has recovered 99.7% of the erroneously credited BTC and used company funds to cover a remaining shortfall of 1,788 BTC that had already been sold. Compensation measures include a 20,000 KRW (~$15) credit for users who were online during the incident, full reimbursement plus an extra 10% for traders who sold BTC at unfavorable prices, and a seven-day fee waiver across markets. Bithumb also reiterated that its asset holdings meet or exceed user deposits. The exchange has not confirmed the total amount initially credited, though some user reports cited roughly 2,000 BTC. The episode underscores operational risk at centralized exchanges and highlights the potential for brief, exchange-specific price distortions during technical problems.
Procap executive Felix Xu attributed the sharp Bitcoin sell-off on Feb. 5 to exchange-traded fund (ETF) mechanics rather than broader crypto panic. According to Xu, ETF-related flows — including rebalancing, authorized participant actions and large institutional order execution — amplified downward pressure on BTC prices that day. The report notes no major crypto-specific catalyst such as market-wide liquidations or a protocol failure. Market participants saw heightened volatility around ETF creation/redemption windows and liquidity gaps, which can force spot and futures markets to move sharply as funds and brokers adjust positions. Traders should watch ETF flow data, authorized participant behavior and funding rates, Xu advised, since these metrics signal potential short-term pressure points. The piece emphasizes that ETF-linked technical dynamics can create abrupt price moves even when fundamentals remain intact.
Key developments this week: Former US President Donald Trump denied knowledge of reports that a UAE-linked investor acquired a 49% stake in World Liberty Financial, saying his family manages investment matters. China’s central bank, joined by nine agencies, issued a joint notice banning issuance of unapproved yuan-pegged stablecoins and classified most real-world-asset (RWA) tokenization as illegal, reinforcing strict crypto controls. Gemini announced withdrawals from the UK, EU and Australia and cut 25% of its workforce to reduce costs and refocus on priority areas. Russia’s Sberbank tested and plans crypto-backed lending after issuing a Bitcoin-backed loan to a major miner. Market events: Tether’s USDT reached a record $187.3 billion market cap in Q4 2025 despite an October crash. South Korean exchange Bithumb suffered a flash crash after an accounting error that briefly showed users credited with 2,000 BTC. Other items: Polymarket filed trademarks for POLY and $POLY; Brazil’s committee moved to ban algorithmic stablecoins; Ripple gained an EU electronic money license in Luxembourg; Jeffrey Epstein was linked to a past $3m Coinbase investment in released emails. Relevance for traders: watch increased regulatory risk from China’s ban (affecting yuan-stablecoin products and RWA tokenization), potential liquidity and regional service frictions from Gemini’s market exits, and stablecoin flow impacts from USDT’s record growth. Monitor BTC price action following exchange incidents (Bithumb) and institutions experimenting with crypto-backed lending for credit-market linkage signals.
Neutral
China stablecoin banUSDT market capGemini exitWorld Liberty UAE claimSberbank crypto lending
Polygon (POL) price has plunged from a 2026 high of $0.1853 to about $0.095 after a broader market downturn and public criticism of Layer‑2s. Despite the pullback, on‑chain fundamentals show rising payment activity: Polygon now ranks second in monthly USDC addresses after Solana, with peer‑to‑peer stablecoin transfer volume topping $39 billion. Major payment processors on Polygon in January included Tazapay (~$687M), Revolut (~$50M), and contributions from Stripe, Paxos, Moonpay and Avenia Pay. Network fees and the burn rate have risen materially in recent months. Technical analysis shows POL has formed a double‑bottom pattern with a neckline at $0.1853 and support near $0.084–$0.085. A confirmed bullish breakout would target roughly $0.15 (≈57% upside from current levels); a break below $0.0845 would invalidate that view. Key takeaways for traders: strong on‑chain payment volume supports longer‑term demand for POL, but short‑term price action remains linked to broader crypto market moves and risk from negative sentiment toward Layer‑2s.
Hyperliquid generated a record $6.84 million in daily revenue on 5 February, driven by a late-January comeback and strong volumes in real-world assets (RWA) such as silver and gold. TradFi assets now represent over 30% of Hyperliquid’s trading volume; silver contracts alone reached $2.2 billion in January. The platform allocated $5.25 million of the February 5 revenue to its HYPE buyback program, purchasing 160.75k HYPE—the largest single-day buyback in 2026. Since late 2024, Hyperliquid has bought back 40.5 million HYPE for burning. These buybacks and RWA demand raised Hyperliquid’s share of perpetual DEX market volume to a record 6.7%, pressuring centralized exchanges. Despite strong fundamentals and deflationary token flows, HYPE’s price cooled after an 84% rally (from $20 to $38), falling below the 200-day SMA and showing bearish RSI divergence. Technicals indicate a likely consolidation or pullback in the $27–$38 range if broader market sentiment remains weak. Key takeaways for traders: record platform revenue and aggressive buybacks support long-term token scarcity, but near-term price risk exists due to technical divergence and market-wide weakness.
Dominic (Dom) Kwok, co‑founder of EasyA, highlighted recent short‑term price divergence between XRP and Bitcoin after sharing charts showing XRP gained ~25.65% while BTC rose ~9.06% over the same period. Kwok argued this repeated divergence hints at a gradual decoupling process rather than a one‑off event, stressing that multiple instances of independent price action increase the likelihood of a lasting separation. Community responses pushed back: some commenters said XRP’s larger gain mainly reflected a sharper prior drop (a rebound), not true independence, and urged looking at multi‑day performance rather than a single session. The article frames the debate between interpreting short‑term outperformance as meaningful repetition toward decoupling (Kwok’s view) versus treating it as volatility-driven retracement (critics’ view).
Former President Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign pledge to create a national Bitcoin reserve has resurfaced after Bitcoin fell to around $60,000. CNBC commentator Jim Cramer suggested the government could view the price drop as an opportunity to begin building reserves, though there is no official confirmation from the White House. The article notes a contrast between Washington’s silence and private-sector crypto activity — notably Binance shifting parts of its SAFU protection toward Bitcoin acquisitions — which could affect market liquidity. Trump’s broader crypto ambitions, including onshore mining and a diversified strategic reserve covering altcoins, are cited as still largely unimplemented. The story underscores renewed investor attention on possible government buying and its potential to influence Bitcoin’s role as a global store of value.
Bitcoin plunged about 53% over a 120-day period despite the absence of a single identifiable major negative news event. The sell-off appeared driven by a confluence of market-structure factors rather than one headline: large leveraged positions and margin liquidations in futures and derivatives markets, waning investor liquidity following profit-taking, and algorithmic or quant funds de-risking amid rising volatility. Significant on-chain signals included elevated spot-to-futures basis compression and spikes in funding rates before the drop, followed by sharp outflows from exchanges and a rise in realized volatility. The correction cut market capitalization substantially, pressured altcoins, and increased macro sensitivity as traders shifted to risk-off strategies. Key statistics: ~53% peak-to-trough decline in BTC over ~120 days, notable increases in liquidations and funding rate volatility during the period, and broad market cap contraction. For traders, the episode underscores the risks of high leverage, thin liquidity during corrections, and the importance of monitoring derivatives metrics (open interest, funding rates), exchange flows, and realized volatility for early warning. Risk management actions recommended include reducing leverage, widening stop discipline, scaling position sizes, and watching on-chain and derivatives indicators to anticipate cascading liquidations.
XRP plunged from $2.40 on Jan 6 to about $1.10 after a sharp market crash, losing over 50% in a month. CryptoPotato queried four AI models—ChatGPT, Perplexity, Grok and Gemini—for bear-case targets. ChatGPT and Perplexity both suggested a realistic bear low near $0.85–$0.95 if capitulation continues. Gemini warned that a break below the psychological $1.00 level could accelerate selling toward roughly $0.60. Grok offered a conditional bull case: if $1.10 holds, XRP could trade sideways between $1.10–$1.45 and attempt a rebound above $1.60 if it clears $1.50; but if $1.00 fails, further falls below $0.90 are possible. The piece highlights heightened downside risk while noting a limited scenario for recovery; traders should monitor support at $1.10 and the key $1.00 psychological level, plus resistance at $1.50–$1.60 and open interest/liquidity signals for signs of capitulation or rebound.
Bearish
XRPbear marketAI price predictionssupport and resistancetrading signals
MicroStrategy (MSTR) has effectively become a leveraged Bitcoin (BTC) exposure vehicle rather than a traditional software company. Q4 2025 results reported a $12.4 billion net loss driven primarily by fair-value accounting on its Bitcoin holdings and a ~25–26% drop in BTC price — not by operating failures. Statistical analysis in the report finds MSTR lacks a long-term cointegration relationship with Bitcoin but shows a high short-term beta (~1.36) and persistent volatility, meaning the stock can amplify short-term BTC moves. The article warns dilution risk from equity issuance, elevated debt levels, and mounting financial stress; the previous NAV premium has vanished. The author rates MSTR a strong sell and recommends direct BTC exposure as a safer alternative for traders. Key takeaways for traders: MSTR carries higher leverage, accounting-driven volatility, and corporate risks (dilution, debt servicing) that can produce sharper drawdowns than holding BTC itself. Primary keywords: MicroStrategy, MSTR, Bitcoin, BTC, high beta, leverage, NAV premium, dilution, fair-value accounting.
This guide explains core crypto wallet concepts and practical security steps traders must follow in 2026. It defines wallets as holders of private keys and distinguishes hot wallets (mobile, desktop, browser extensions) for daily use from cold wallets (hardware, paper) for long-term storage. Key recommendations include using strong unique passwords, enabling two-factor authentication, keeping recovery phrases offline, downloading wallet software only from official sources, and limiting funds in hot wallets. Advanced practices covered: multisignature (multi-sig) wallets, hardware integrations, watch-only addresses, and periodic audits of balances and transactions. The article highlights wallet roles in DeFi, crypto gaming and casinos and stresses backups and seed-phrase protection as critical to preventing irreversible loss. For traders, the piece emphasizes using cold storage for sizable holdings while keeping small hot-wallet allocations for active trading, monitoring cross-platform transfers, and maintaining transaction records for reconciliation and tax purposes.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair confirmed on CNBC that a major crypto market-structure bill has passed the House and is now under review in the Senate. The legislation aims to clarify regulatory roles between the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), define oversight of trading platforms and custody services, and set disclosure standards for certain crypto products. House passage followed extended debate and revisions; the bill now faces Senate committee review, potential amendments, and procedural steps before a full vote. No Senate timeline has been announced. Market participants and crypto firms—many of which have delayed expansion pending clearer rules—are closely watching for outcomes that could influence compliance, product launches, and institutional activity. The SEC Chair said regulators are engaged and “looking forward to getting it across the finish line,” but enactment will depend on Senate action and subsequent agency implementation guidance.
Crypto analyst XRP CAPTAIN says XRP’s multi-month weekly descending channel remains the key structural element: as long as weekly closes respect the channel, the longer-term setup stays bullish despite short-term sell-offs. His chart shows multiple touches of the channel’s upper and lower trendlines, indicating preserved price structure and accumulation. Recent weekend liquidity-driven volatility pushed XRP toward the channel lower boundary, but a short-term rebound has followed — CoinMarketCap data cited XRP around $1.47, up roughly 20.7% in 24 hours. The analyst urges traders to focus on weekly closes and higher-timeframe technicals; a confirmed weekly breakout would validate a larger uptrend, while a decisive weekly close below the channel would invalidate the bullish thesis. Community responses echoed that weekly structure matters more than intraday moves and highlighted resilience and project transparency during drawdowns. Traders should watch: weekly closes, the channel boundaries, and liquidity conditions for signs to adjust positions.
U.S. President Donald Trump said Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell would be “gone soon,” prompting traders to reassess monetary-policy expectations. The comment, made in a public appearance without a timeline, renewed focus on potential changes in Fed leadership and their implications for interest rates and the US dollar. Trump has historically favored lower interest rates and a weaker dollar; Powell has emphasized higher rates to curb inflation. Although there has been no official change to Fed leadership or policy, the remark drove short-term market attention because shifts in Fed direction can affect interest-rate expectations, dollar strength, and risk appetite. Crypto traders are watching closely because lower rates and a softer dollar tend to be positive for Bitcoin demand—some investors view Bitcoin as an alternative asset or hedge against currency weakness. The situation remains fluid: Powell remains chair and policy is unchanged, but political statements can increase uncertainty and trigger short-term volatility in BTC and broader crypto markets.
Neutral
Federal ReserveJerome PowellDonald TrumpBitcoinInterest Rates
Bitcoin is under pronounced sell pressure driven by several converging factors. A major whale (nicknamed Garrett Bullish) liquidated positions and deposited over 5,000 BTC (~$345M) to Binance in chunks — a potential precursor to large sell orders. Bitcoin experienced the largest liquidation event of the year, with more than 90,000 BTC wiped out in 24 hours, coinciding with the weakest social sentiment in over four years (social sentiment ≈ -6.90 when BTC traded near $67,960). Technical indicators also look unfavorable. Additionally, BTC has decoupled from the global M2 money supply: while M2 has risen, BTC price has fallen, suggesting capital is not flowing into Bitcoin and may be favoring other risk assets. Combined, these on-chain flows, social metrics and macro decoupling imply continued bearish control in the near term and raise the possibility of deeper retracement levels (surpassing a 50% retracement from all-time high). Traders should watch large exchange deposits, liquidations, social sentiment and M2 movement for signs of capitulation or resumed capital inflows.
XRP surged about 20% while the broader crypto market remained range-bound, driven by a marked increase in XRP Ledger on-chain activity and investor interest in infrastructure upgrades. Transaction counts, active addresses and trading volume all rose during the move, suggesting genuine network usage rather than a purely speculative pump. Developers and observers pointed to progress on subnet-style frameworks for the XRP Ledger — separate, connected environments designed for specialized workloads such as decentralized data processing and distributed AI training — as a key catalyst. Traders rotated capital into assets showing visible utility, and liquidity improved across major XRP pairs during the rally. No major macro announcements accompanied the move, so market participants are watching on-chain metrics for confirmation of sustained demand. Primary keywords: XRP, XRP Ledger, network activity, subnet development, trading volume.
Tether has made a strategic, undisclosed investment in t-0 Network, a payments-focused blockchain project building an institutional settlement rail that uses USDT (USD₮) as the exclusive on‑chain settlement asset. t-0 Network connects licensed banks, fintechs and payment firms via a shared ledger and single API to match, net and settle only net balances on‑chain, reducing pre‑funding, FX exposure, correspondent‑bank delays and fees while improving auditability. The partnership aims to integrate USDT liquidity with t-0’s settlement rails, supporting faster, lower‑cost international payments and tighter on‑chain settlement efficiency. Access to the network is limited to approved, regulated participants. Details on the size and stake of Tether’s investment were not disclosed. Traders should monitor announcements about product integrations, pilot programs with payment providers, and any rises in on‑chain USDT volume or settlement flows, as these could affect USDT liquidity and stablecoin trading pairs.
Bullish CEO Tom Farley warned that the crypto industry is heading for “massive consolidation,” saying many firms will find they “don’t have businesses, they have products.” Speaking to CNBC, Farley — former NYSE president — pointed to the recent market decline (Bitcoin down ~45% from its October peak to about $69,400) and inflated prior valuations as catalysts that will force mergers and acquisitions. He said consolidation should have occurred earlier but was delayed by unrealistic expectations of 2020-style valuations. The process will likely result in larger firms acquiring underperforming projects, driving industry consolidation but also causing redundancies, layoffs and internal disruption. The article notes venture capital has grown more selective as the market matures, and cites industry commentary that aligns with a shift toward fewer, larger players.
Neutral
Crypto consolidationMergers and acquisitionsBitcoin priceExchange industryVenture capital
A large Bitcoin holder (a "whale" previously linked to a $250 million loss) transferred 7,719 BTC—worth about $351 million—into Binance. The on-chain move was spotted by blockchain trackers; the coins came from wallets associated with the whale that had earlier sold or moved substantial holdings tied to the prior $250M event. The transfer to Binance, a major centralized exchange, may signal intentions to sell, rebalance, or use the exchange for custody or OTC activity. Key figures: 7,719 BTC and ~$351 million. Primary keywords: Bitcoin, whale transfer, Binance, BTC. Secondary keywords: on-chain transfer, large holder, sell pressure, custody, OTC. Traders should note the size and destination of the transfer: large inbound flows to exchanges have historically correlated with short-term selling pressure, higher volatility, and liquidations. Monitor Binance order books, BTC spot price, and derivatives open interest for near-term impact. The transfer alone doesn’t confirm an imminent sell-off—contextual signals (timing, subsequent on-exchange deposits, withdrawals, or linked OTC activity) will determine actual market effect.
Tether, issuer of the USDT stablecoin, is pursuing global expansion to grow its market reach and product footprint. The company plans to increase operations and regulatory engagement in multiple jurisdictions, seeking partnerships and banking relationships to support wider USDT adoption. Tether’s strategy focuses on diversifying liquidity corridors, expanding fiat on/off ramps, and exploring localised services to capture demand from institutional and retail users. The move comes amid continued scrutiny of stablecoin reserves and regulatory pressure worldwide; Tether emphasises compliance and transparency efforts to reassure partners and counterparties. Key implications include potential increases in USDT circulation, deeper integration with local crypto ecosystems, and greater competition with other stablecoins. Traders should watch USDT supply metrics, on-chain flows, regulatory announcements, and banking relationships as drivers of short-term volatility and longer-term market structure shifts.
Solana (SOL) is showing signs of capital rotation from Ethereum (ETH) amid recent ETH-focused FUD and outflows. Key on-chain and trading metrics favor SOL: Solana’s perpetuals trading volume reached $12.1 billion versus Ethereum’s $9.6 billion (about 26% higher), and Solana’s stablecoin supply rose 8.5% this week driven by $2.75 billion in USDC minting on Solana compared with Ethereum’s nearly flat 0.2% stablecoin change. Institutional flows also diverged — ETFs recorded roughly $18 million net outflows for Solana over three days versus about $180 million outflows for Ethereum. The SOL/ETH ratio is trading around 0.04, a level that previously preceded a 35% SOL rebound during Q3 2025, suggesting potential upside if the ratio holds. Additional pressure on ETH came from large holder moves flagged by LookOnChain and Trend Research selling nearly all their ETH (withdrawal of 792,532 ETH and later a partial redeposit), contributing to negative sentiment. For traders, these developments point to possible short-term rotation into SOL, higher trading liquidity on Solana, and a risk-reward setup that could support a SOL rally if on-chain activity and perp volumes persist. Monitor SOL/ETH ratio, stablecoin minting flows on Solana, perp volumes, and ETF/institutional activity for confirmation.
The Financial Times argues bitcoin remains materially overvalued — roughly $69,000 above its implied fair value. The piece contends current market prices for bitcoin diverge sharply from fundamentals, citing valuation models and macro indicators that suggest a large premium is priced in. The article positions this gap as a caution for traders, warning of heightened downside risk if sentiment shifts or macro conditions deteriorate. Key points for traders: bitcoin is significantly above estimated fair value; market pricing appears driven more by sentiment and liquidity than fundamentals; the overvaluation raises short-term risk of pullbacks and increased volatility; long-term prospects depend on institutional adoption and macro trends. Primary keywords: bitcoin, bitcoin price, overvaluation, fair value, crypto market.
Bearish
BitcoinPrice valuationMarket riskCrypto tradingFinancial Times analysis
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued guidance that eases regulatory uncertainty for prediction markets, signaling that certain event-based contracts—like those on sports outcomes—may not require full CFTC registration if structured to avoid falling under the definition of a commodity futures contract. The clarification came just before the Super Bowl, drawing attention from prediction-market platforms, crypto exchanges, and bettors. Key points: the CFTC emphasized factors such as contract terms, delivery mechanics, and whether contracts create relationships comparable to traditional futures. The move reduces compliance risk for platforms offering markets on political events, sports results and other real-world events, and may spur new product launches and higher trading volumes around major events. Market participants noted that while the guidance narrows enforcement risk, platforms should still ensure careful legal design and consumer protections. Potential impacts include accelerated product development by crypto-native prediction markets, increased liquidity and marketing around marquee events, and selective interest from regulated exchanges evaluating U.S. offerings. The guidance does not legalize illegal activity or remove all regulatory oversight; state laws and other federal rules remain relevant. Traders should watch platform announcements, new product listings tied to high-profile events, and any follow-up CFTC rulemaking or enforcement actions that could further clarify boundaries.
Vietnam’s Ministry of Finance has proposed a tax and regulatory framework for crypto during its five‑year pilot that began in September 2025. Key measures: a 0.1% personal income tax on transaction turnover for trades executed through licensed platforms (applied to residents and non‑residents), continued exemption of crypto transfers from value‑added tax (VAT), and a 20% corporate income tax on net trading profits for companies. Licensing for exchanges opened on 20 January 2026 with steep entry rules: minimum charter capital of 10 trillion VND (~$408m) and a 49% cap on foreign ownership; settlement in Vietnamese dong is mandated during the pilot. The draft mirrors recent legal amendments and awaits public feedback before finalisation. For traders, the low 0.1% trade levy may encourage migration to licensed venues and improve reporting and compliance; however, high capital and licensing thresholds are likely to reduce the number of exchanges, constrain liquidity, and favour larger, incumbent operators — potentially increasing spreads and execution risk on smaller pairs. SEO keywords: Vietnam crypto regulation, crypto tax, exchange licensing, market liquidity, trader compliance.