Latest Crypto News | Bitcoin, Ethereum and Altcoin Updates

Elon Musk failed to deliver several high-profile 2025 promises across his companies. Tesla’s robotaxi rollout remained limited to Austin and still required human safety monitors, contradicting claims that robotaxis would cover half of the U.S. population or operate unsupervised by year-end. xAI did not achieve AGI in 2025 and pushed timelines further out after bold public predictions. SpaceX’s human Mars timeline — repeatedly moved since 2011 — saw no launch, and other transport ambitions such as Hyperloop and flying cars did not materialize. The long-promised Tesla Roadster prototype demo also did not appear. Musk’s federal initiative (DOGE) to cut waste, fraud and abuse was repeatedly reduced from $2 trillion to lower figures. The article highlights a pattern of missed public deadlines across Tesla, xAI, SpaceX and government efficiency claims, noting these shortfalls were often publicly stated in interviews, earnings calls and posts on X (formerly Twitter).

Polymarket prediction markets indicate traders assign only about a 21%–26% chance that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $150,000 in 2026. By contrast, the market prices an ~80% probability of BTC hitting $100,000 and ~45% for $120,000. The gap highlights a divergence between high-end Wall Street analyst targets (often $150k–$250k) and real-money betting by traders, reflecting a reassessment of valuation assumptions after 2025’s disappointing performance. Factors cited include constrained liquidity, weaker-than-expected post-halving dynamics, and macro uncertainty (Fed leadership changes and timing of rate cuts). Institutions and research groups (e.g., Galaxy Research, Standard Chartered referenced) have trimmed lofty forecasts and emphasize that future BTC gains depend more on actual inflows than historical cycle models. For traders, the signal is that consensus supports moderate upside (toward $100k) but is skeptical of rapid, large spikes to $150k+, implying reduced appetite for aggressive long gamma or levered bullish positions until clearer liquidity and policy drivers emerge.

A senior Binance executive told an industry forum that the crypto market will undergo a bullish reset in 2026 driven by fundamentals rather than hype. He argued that the prior cycles powered by retail euphoria and speculative narratives are giving way to sustained growth fueled by institutional adoption, stronger on-chain metrics, and clearer regulatory frameworks. The executive highlighted that meaningful on-chain activity, custody solutions, and scalable infrastructure improvements will be key drivers. He cautioned that volatility will remain but suggested the market’s risk-reward profile will improve as capital shifts from short-term speculation to long-term assets. Primary keywords: crypto market, bullish reset, Binance. Secondary keywords: institutional adoption, on-chain metrics, regulatory clarity, custody solutions. The piece signals potential strategic shifts for traders: emphasize fundamentals, monitor institutional flows and regulatory developments, and watch on-chain indicators for confirmation. Short-term volatility is expected; traders should use risk management and look for accumulation opportunities aligned with improving fundamentals.

AB (AceBitx) Exchange has launched as a compliant, security-focused digital asset trading platform offering spot, derivatives, smart copy trading and wealth-management products. The derivatives arm supports up to 500x leverage and employs multi-layer risk controls, real-time monitoring, and a high-performance matching engine to ensure stability during volatile markets. AB highlights compliance as a core principle, claiming financial licenses in jurisdictions including the United States and Hong Kong and plans expansion across Southeast Asia. The exchange identifies RWA (Real World Assets) integration as a strategic priority, exploring on-chain structuring of revenues from real estate, tourist attractions, retail cash flows and restaurant revenue sharing to link digital tokens to tangible income streams. AB says it will continue to prioritize compliance, technology and risk control while building infrastructure to bridge traditional finance and crypto markets.

South Korean exchange Coinone has confirmed support for APENFT’s rebranding to AINFT, announcing it will handle all technical updates and user-facing changes while keeping the trading ticker as ’NFT’. The exchange — founded in 2014 and operating under Korea’s regulatory framework — will update wallet infrastructure, UI displays, and asset pages so Coinone users need not take action. The rebrand signals a strategic pivot that likely emphasizes AI integration with NFT technology. Coinone’s endorsement reduces execution risk and lends regulatory and operational credibility, easing local liquidity and lowering confusion during the transition. Key takeaways for traders: no token swap or address changes on Coinone, ticker remains NFT, monitor official AINFT and Coinone channels to avoid phishing, and self-custody holders should verify smart contract details independently.

Market snapshot (OKX): Meme token PEPE surged 15.02% intraday to $0.0000049, leading gains. Other notable winners include AVAX (+8.67% at $13.613), FLOKI (+7.78% at $0.0000436), IMX (+6.57% at $0.249) and KSM (+6.08% at $7.569). Top decliners: RPL fell 3.36% to $2.012, FIL down 1.93% to $1.476, GLM down 1.69% to $0.226, ENJ down 1.62% to $0.0291 and FLOW down 1.59% to $0.104. Data are provided for market information and not investment advice.

Iran’s state arms exporter Mindex has begun accepting cryptocurrency payments for overseas weapons sales, explicitly advertising crypto and barter alongside Iranian rial to help buyers “circumvent sanctions.” The Financial Times report — supplemented by later coverage — says Mindex markets systems including Shahed drones, ballistic missiles, warships, air-defence and anti-ship missiles to clients in about 35 countries via a portal and chatbot hosted on a sanctioned domestic cloud provider. Deals are expected to use Bitcoin and stablecoins (eg, USDT) and may employ privacy tools, mixers or chain‑hopping to obscure trails. Analysts warn this establishes a precedent for sanctioned states and complicates enforcement. Immediate responses likely include heightened scrutiny from OFAC, FATF and Western regulators; tougher KYC for VASPs; sanctions on identified addresses/protocols; and investment in blockchain forensics and validator screening. Iran’s large domestic crypto user base (roughly 5 million active traders) and rising inbound crypto volumes increase capacity for such flows, though initial transaction volumes for arms sales may be limited. For traders: monitor on‑chain activity tied to known Iranian clusters, liquidity and flows in stablecoins and privacy coins, and regulatory announcements that could prompt delistings, tighter on/off‑ramp rules, or higher compliance costs for exchanges and custodians.

South Korean crypto exchange Bithumb identified roughly 2.6 million inactive accounts holding about 291.6 billion KRW (≈$201.8 million) in dormant customer assets during a recovery campaign targeting users inactive for more than one year. Some accounts have been untouched for up to 4,380 days (nearly 12 years); the single largest dormant holding is roughly $2.84 million. Bithumb said some recovered balances have risen dramatically (as much as ~61,000%) since acquisition, reflecting early-cycle holdings that far outperformed Bitcoin’s long-term gain. The exchange will notify eligible customers directly and assist with account recovery; prior recovery drives have reclaimed significant sums (about $50 million recovered by ~36,000 users during a past campaign). Market implications for traders include the potential reactivation of long-dormant supply that could add liquidity or selling pressure if large wallets return, as well as renewed scrutiny of exchanges’ custody and communication practices for long-forgotten assets. Key keywords: Bithumb, dormant assets, inactive accounts, asset recovery, South Korea.

China’s digital renminbi (e-CNY) enters a 2.0 phase from Jan 1, 2026: wallet balances will earn interest and its legal status shifts toward carrying commercial-bank liability attributes. This makes e‑CNY the first retail CBDC to pay interest to ordinary users. The redesign integrates e‑CNY into commercial banks’ balance sheets, giving banks management and revenue rights and aligning incentives for active promotion. The model aims to avoid disintermediation risk, enable deposit insurance, and create a new policy tool—an interest rate on CBDC—with improved traceability for targeted monetary measures. For Hong Kong, an interest-bearing e‑CNY is expected to: 1) strengthen its offshore RMB liquidity pool by encouraging longer-term onshore funds to stay in Hong Kong; 2) raise the appeal of tokenized asset issuance and DvP settlement by offering sovereign-backed, high-credit settlement currency with programmable features; 3) spur fintech and banking product innovation (deposits, yield products, smart-contract integrations); and 4) complement Hong Kong’s wholesale-focused digital HKD (num‑HKD) by serving cross‑border retail payments and trade settlement. The article argues e‑CNY2.0 forms a hybrid between tokenized bank deposits and sovereign CBDC, providing a high‑credit “settlement rail” for large‑scale asset tokenization and reinforcing Hong Kong’s role as an international digital asset center.

Turkmenistan has legalized cryptocurrency mining and created a licensing and registration framework for exchanges and miners, announced in early 2025. The law permits registered domestic and foreign individuals to operate mining farms and mining pools and requires any crypto exchange headquartered in Turkmenistan to obtain an official license. It explicitly does not recognise cryptocurrencies as legal tender, national currency, or securities, and continues to ban retail crypto payments. Key compliance measures include mandatory miner registration, exchange licensing, and expected financial reporting and AML controls, though detailed tax, fee and operational rules have not yet been published. The government frames the move as a way to monetise abundant gas-generated electricity, attract foreign investment, and create regulated revenue streams; successful implementation will depend on transparent enforcement, energy management and competitive power pricing. Market implications for traders include a potentially modest increase in global Bitcoin hash rate if significant mining capacity relocates to Turkmenistan, a more controlled local market driven by licensing, and continued political and internet-access risks that could limit operational scale. Primary keywords: Turkmenistan, crypto mining, exchange licensing, AML, energy-driven mining.

AEON has integrated its QR-code Scan-to-Pay payment system with OKX’s X Layer (an Ethereum Layer 2), aiming to accelerate crypto payments across emerging markets. Announced March 15, 2025, the partnership targets Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America — with pilot merchant rollouts in Singapore, Nigeria and Brazil in Q2 2025 and full regional availability planned by Q4 2025. The integration connects AEON’s payment protocol to X Layer smart contracts and OKX Pay, enabling dynamic, encrypted QR codes, instant settlement, multi-crypto support (EVM-compatible tokens), real-time conversion, offline capability and fraud detection. AEON positions itself as a payment and settlement layer for AI-driven use cases, enabling machine-to-machine and microtransaction flows. Reported benefits include faster settlement (2–5 seconds), lower fees (0.1–0.5% vs. typical 1.5–3.5%), and up to ~94% lower costs versus Ethereum mainnet via Layer 2 scaling. Security measures include short-lived encrypted QR codes, biometric authentication in OKX Pay, and KYC/AML compliance. Analysts highlight improved UX and scalability as key to wider crypto acceptance in regions with high mobile penetration but limited banking access. The phased rollout includes merchant tools, education campaigns and developer docs to encourage adoption. This integration could reduce merchant reliance on traditional processors and enable crypto-enabled commerce and AI-driven financial automation.

CoinJar closed 2025 with major global expansion and product upgrades. The exchange launched in the United States (initially in 20 states) and plans wider US rollout, while CoinJar Europe secured MiCAR authorization from its Dublin hub allowing services across the EU. Product innovations include CoinJar AI — an account-connected assistant delivering market data, portfolio insights, news summaries and account actions — rolled out in the US and Australia. Other upgrades: Travel Rule support with saved recipient details, expanded portfolio management tools (portfolio view, balances overview, recent activity, available balances, compliance prompts), faster app performance, TradingView chart integration, dark mode, additional tokens and Layer‑2 transfers, and multichain functionality. Security and scam‑awareness initiatives continued. Roadmap items for 2026 include expanding US state coverage, enhancing payment and crypto rails, more token and Layer‑2 listings, and advanced trading features such as stop‑loss orders. For traders, the key takeaways are broader access to CoinJar liquidity in US and EU markets, more tokens/chains and lower‑cost rails, integrated advanced charting, and an AI assistant that can surface account‑specific trading signals and alerts.

Canza Finance, a pan‑African DeFi payments network, announced its native USDT trading volume has surpassed $131 million, up ~300% versus the prior quarter. To address high costs, slow settlement and fragmented mobile money rails across Africa, Canza unveiled the Canza Autonomous Payment Protocol (CAPP), a multi‑agent autonomous AI system designed for continent‑scale cross‑border payments. Key claims: reduce average cross‑border fees from ~8.9% to under 1% (≈90% reduction), cut corporate settlement times from days to seconds/minutes, and connect 156 independent mobile money systems via Mobile Money Bridge Agents to onboard over 400 million unbanked users via mobile phones. CAPP will run on the Aptos blockchain, leveraging sub‑second finality, low fees (reported ~$0.0005 per tx) and Move smart contracts for auditable, high‑throughput settlement. Canza frames the $131M milestone as validation of stablecoin demand in Africa and plans to accelerate CAPP rollout using its on‑chain P2P, B2B FX, market‑making and OTC settlement data. Aptos Foundation representatives endorsed the approach, highlighting the need for new technical rails to meet African cross‑border scale. Canza invites enterprises to pilot CAPP and aims to expand services across more African markets.

Turkmenistan’s new cryptocurrency regulatory law, signed by the president in late November and now in effect, legalises crypto mining and trading within the country. Key provisions permit non-resident miners to register and operate in Turkmenistan and allow the establishment of mining pools. Crypto exchanges based in Turkmenistan must obtain licences, implement KYC and AML controls, and meet specified cold-storage requirements. The law marks a formal opening of the country to onshore crypto activity and sets regulatory standards for exchanges and custodial practices. Primary keywords: Turkmenistan crypto regulation, crypto mining legalisation, crypto exchanges licence. Secondary/semantic keywords: KYC, AML, cold storage, mining pools, non-resident miners.

SUI has reclaimed and is consolidating above a key EMA cluster around $1.41 following a sharp impulse move from local lows. Trading volume has risen, with noticeable increases on decentralized exchanges and in perpetual contract activity. Short-term buyers have stepped in to defend the reclaimed zone, while technical indicators show momentum flipping from bearish to bullish and moving averages compressing beneath price. Price is trading in a narrow range between $1.41 and recent resistance; a clean, high-volume break above resistance is needed to confirm continuation. Traders are adopting measured, disciplined approaches—monitoring volume, momentum (RSI neutral but improving), and whether support at the EMA holds. The situation presents a controlled risk profile: sustained hold above $1.41 would favor further upside, while a failure could reopen lower levels.

CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index sits at 21, indicating only 21% of the top 100 non-stablecoin tokens have outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days. The index compares 90-day returns of top-cap altcoins against BTC; readings above 75 signal an altcoin season while readings below 25 indicate a Bitcoin season. Recent updates show the index moved from around 19–20 to 21, reinforcing concentrated market strength in Bitcoin. Drivers include heavy institutional inflows into BTC (spot ETFs, corporate allocations), clearer regulatory treatment favoring Bitcoin, stronger on-chain Bitcoin metrics (hash rate, security), and market attention around the halving event. Trading indicators point to higher BTC-to-stablecoin volume, neutral-to-negative funding rates on many altcoin perpetuals, and capital rotation away from broad altcoin exposure. Some sectors—DeFi, layer-1 platforms and infrastructure—have shown relative resilience and better 90-day averages, offering selective accumulation opportunities. Analysts warn the index is a lagging 90-day measure and excludes small-cap tokens, so it can miss rapid rotations. Traders are advised to maintain higher BTC allocations during Bitcoin-season signals, favor selective, fundamentally strong altcoin positions at depressed valuations, and monitor Bitcoin dominance, exchange altcoin supply, funding rates, developer activity and sentiment for early signs of rotation into altcoins.

Crypto analysis firm TRM Labs reports that 2025 saw a record number of physical ’wrench’ attacks targeting cryptocurrency holders, with approximately 60 incidents recorded. TRM Labs’ global policy head Ari Redbord warned the true figure may be substantially higher because many cases are logged as ordinary robberies or home invasions without noting a crypto connection, and some victims choose not to report due to uncertainty about law enforcement response. For context, TRM recorded about 41 such attacks in 2024 and about 36 in 2021. The rise in targeted physical thefts against crypto holders highlights security risks for private key custody and may influence trader behavior and custodial choices.

A large options expiry on Deribit is scheduled for 08:00 UTC: $1.85 billion notional in Bitcoin (BTC) options and $390 million in Ethereum (ETH) options. Bitcoin shows a bullish skew with a put/call ratio of 0.48 and a max-pain strike at $88,000; Ethereum’s put/call ratio is 0.62 with max pain at $2,950. These are European-style expiries, concentrating settlement effects at expiry and lowering early assignment risk. Market makers will hedge gamma and delta, which can either suppress pre-expiry volatility and pin spot toward the max-pain strikes, or produce post-expiry breakouts when hedges are removed. The event underscores institutional growth in crypto derivatives — Deribit handles over 85% of volume — and may amplify intraday moves without necessarily changing longer-term direction. Traders should monitor open interest, liquidity, spot flows and macro headlines around the window, avoid impulsive trades during the expiry, and watch $88,000 (BTC) and $2,950–$3,100 (ETH) as near-term reference levels for support/resistance. Maintain strict risk management (position sizing, stop-losses) because expiry-driven flows can produce sharp but typically short-lived moves.

Flow Foundation updated the remediation progress following a recent security incident. Core developers have implemented a solution that allows the EVM-compatible network to be restored while Cadence (Flow’s native smart contract language) fixes continue. The team is executing parallel repairs on the Cadence layer (phase 2) and the EVM layer (phase 3), with the EVM network expected to come back online within 24 hours. After these phases, the project will proceed to phase 4 to restore bridging and exchange connectivity. The announcement aims to reassure users and counterparties that services will be restored in stages; no financial figures or specific attacker details were disclosed. Key keywords: Flow, EVM, Cadence, bridge restoration, outage recovery.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index climbed eight points to 28 on April 9, 2025, moving sentiment out of the ‘extreme fear’ zone (below 25) into ‘fear’. The reading reflects a 40% single-step increase from 20 and signals reduced panic across the index’s six weighted inputs: volatility (25%), market volume/momentum (25%), social media sentiment (15%), market surveys (15%), Bitcoin dominance (10%) and search trends (10%). The later report adds context: on-chain indicators that typically accompany this sentiment shift include fewer transfers to exchange wallets, rising accumulation addresses, and a falling put/call options ratio. Analysts caution the index is a contrarian, directional tool—not a standalone timing signal—and advise traders to combine it with technical and fundamental analysis, tighten risk controls, reduce leverage, and selectively limit exposure to risk assets. The improvement may encourage tentative capital rotation from Bitcoin into large-cap altcoins as correlations loosen, and broader drivers cited include regulatory clarifications in major jurisdictions and macroeconomic stability (inflation and Fed policy). For traders: treat the index as a sentiment barometer — it signals cooling panic and potential consolidation or accumulation, but does not guarantee a sustained rally.

Galaxy Digital’s 2026 outlook positions bitcoin as moving toward a monetary-hedge role similar to gold, forecasting a path to $250,000. The report cites macro trends—persistent inflationary concerns, ongoing central bank balance-sheet expansion, and growing institutional adoption—as drivers that could reframe bitcoin’s narrative from speculative asset to store of value. Galaxy highlights bitcoin’s scarcity (fixed supply) and rising demand from institutions, ETFs and corporate treasuries as key fundamentals. The outlook discusses potential catalysts and risks: accelerated ETF inflows and macro instability could accelerate gains, while regulatory headwinds, sharply higher interest rates, or a loss of confidence in crypto infrastructure could derail the thesis. The piece frames 2026 as a pivotal year in which bitcoin’s correlation with traditional risk assets may shift toward a primary role as a monetary hedge, supporting a multi-year bullish view but acknowledging volatility and event-driven drawdowns. Relevant keywords: Bitcoin, bitcoin price, $250K, monetary hedge, gold, Galaxy Digital, institutional adoption, ETF inflows, inflation, macro.

A popular trader, Matt Hughes (The Great Mattsby), identified Dogecoin (DOGE) around $0.11–$0.12 as a high-reward/low-risk entry on the weekly chart after five consecutive weekly red closes. Hughes pointed to a trendline support — previously validated in November 2024 when DOGE bounced from the same area near $0.45 — and suggested a stop-loss below $0.11 with an upside target near $0.45, implying a roughly 4.5:1 risk-reward ratio. Recent on-chain and market data show DOGE fell ~67% in 2025 amid a meme-coin selloff but has seen a 2.8% intraday gain and a 79% jump in trading volume as it briefly tested support below $0.12. Analysts note that a decisive move above $0.14 would invalidate the bearish structure, opening targets at $0.18 (near the 200-day EMA) and $0.27. The article also mentions a meme-coin presale project, Pepenode (PEPENODE), promoting a mine-to-earn game and tokenomics that include up to 70% token burns. Key implications: DOGE traders should watch $0.11–$0.12 support, volume confirmation, and a break above $0.14 for bullish confirmation; risk management via stop-loss below $0.11 is highlighted.

PeckShield reported about 26 major crypto security incidents in December 2025, with estimated losses of roughly $76 million — a drop of more than 60% from November’s approximately $194.27 million. The later report confirms the month-on-month decline in total exploited funds but provides fewer details on individual hacks than earlier accounts; it nevertheless reinforces that concentrated, high-value losses still occur. Key data points for traders: ~26 incidents in December, ~$76M total losses in December, ~$194.27M in November, and a >60% month-on-month decrease. For trading risk assessment, the fall in monthly losses may reflect improved protocol and wallet defenses, fewer high-value exploits, or attackers shifting targets. However, common operational vulnerabilities (address-poisoning, private-key leaks, compromised browser extensions and hot wallets) remain relevant threats. Traders should prioritize wallet security (hardware/cold wallets), verify destination addresses manually, maintain strict multi-sig and private-key practices, and monitor security reports for protocol-specific risk signals. This summary is informational and not investment advice.

Roundhill Investments filed a post-effective amendment (Form N-1A) for an XRP Covered Call Strategy ETF, delaying the fund’s effectiveness to January 29 while signalling a likely launch later that month. The ETF will not hold spot XRP. Instead, it seeks current income by tracking the price return of one or more ETFs that provide exposure to XRP (including ETFs that gain XRP exposure via futures or other XRP-linked instruments) and by implementing a synthetic covered-call strategy to generate options premium. Commentators note the filing effectively validates XRP as an approved underlying for regulated derivatives and implies options and clearing arrangements for XRP-linked products are in place — a derivatives-level milestone distinct from approval of a spot XRP ETF. Market reaction was muted around the filings; XRP traded near $1.84–$1.87 at the time of reporting. For traders, the update confirms a completed product structure and suggests timing remains the primary variable; the filing increases institutional infrastructure for XRP derivatives but does not directly create spot XRP demand.

Large wallets have been accumulating Solana (SOL) in recent weeks, according to on-chain tracking. Multiple mysterious addresses classified as whale wallets increased their SOL holdings via spot purchases and transfers to custody, suggesting strategic accumulation rather than routine flows. Analysts and trackers note rising concentration of SOL among top addresses and increased on-chain activity, although no specific announcement or partner deal has been publicly confirmed. Market observers link the moves to potential expectations of major ecosystem developments or partnerships slated for 2026, but caution that accumulation alone does not guarantee positive fundamentals. Key data points: noticeable uptick in whale buy transactions, growing share of supply held by top wallets, and increased transfer-to-exchange-custody activity. For traders, these patterns imply elevated interest and possible reduced floating supply in the short term, which can amplify price moves if market demand follows. However, the lack of verifiable news keeps fundamental outlook uncertain; watch for official announcements, on-chain transfer patterns (large sell-to-exchange flows), and volume spikes as triggers for directional moves. Primary keywords: Solana, SOL, whale wallets, accumulation. Secondary/semantic keywords: on-chain data, large holders, 2026 expectations, market signal.

Altcoins are experiencing sharp short-term gains while Bitcoin edges toward the $89,000 level. Ethereum has reclaimed $3,000 and a strong green 15-minute candle suggests rising momentum heading into the daily close. Meme and major altcoins posted double-digit moves in recent hours, signaling renewed risk appetite. PEPE jumped ~20% from $0.00000412; consolidation above $0.00000487 could enable reclaiming $0.00000570 and propel targets between $0.00000939–$0.00001221. Cardano (ADA) has climbed over 7% from recent lows; holding $0.385 support might open a run to $0.4845, while surpassing $0.5453 would be needed to confirm reversal of an 83-day downtrend. Shiba Inu (SHIB) briefly attempts to retake $0.00000754 after a local low near $0.00000687, but closes above $0.00000829 are required to validate a sustained recovery. The article warns that short-lived bounces can be followed by renewed selling and advises traders to wait for decisive closes above resistance before entering. Disclaimer: not investment advice.

Abra CEO Bill Barhydt said early signs of Federal Reserve balance-sheet support — “quantitative-easing light” — together with lower interest rates could inject liquidity and revive risk appetite, boosting Bitcoin in 2026. He cited potential Fed bond buying and falling rates as typical drivers for risk assets, and added that clearer U.S. regulation plus rising institutional demand are lasting tailwinds likely to produce steadier gains rather than sharp rallies. Market indicators temper that optimism: CME data shows only 14.9% of traders expect a January rate cut, down from 23% in November, suggesting policy easing may be delayed. Analysts (including Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan) expect long-term bullish but lower-volatility performance; one analyst noted Bitcoin’s ~35% pullback from a late-2025 peak near $126,000 to about $80,000, with U.S. rates around 3.5%–3.75% and easing more likely later in 2026. Spot BTC ETFs hold over $110 billion, but flows are uneven, indicating selective institutional reallocation rather than broad accumulation. Implications for traders: the macro combination of easier liquidity and clearer regulation supports a medium-term bullish outlook for BTC, but high rates, subdued ETF flows and political/regulatory risks argue for a period of accumulation and lower volatility in early 2026. Traders should monitor Fed balance-sheet moves, interest-rate expectations, ETF flows and institutional allocation shifts when positioning.

Lighter’s token launch (LIT) triggered large capital movements and short-term selling pressure. Analytics firm Bubblemaps reported roughly $250 million withdrawn from the perp DEX one day after the token generation event (TGE); net outflows after accounting for deposits were about $101 million. The protocol had distributed $625 million in airdropped LIT to early users, which analysts say created significant selling pressure. Perpetual trading volumes on Lighter dropped sharply from $66 billion weekly in late November to $31 billion by late December (a ~50% decline). Rival Hyperliquid also saw volumes fall (from $41B to $26B), so it’s unclear whether users migrated platforms. LIT’s price fell 32% on debut (from $3.30 to $2.20) and later recovered to around $2.60 (an 18% bounce). Derivatives positioning showed short bias: Coinglass data indicated 54% of Binance top accounts were short LIT versus 45% long. Key takeaways for traders: expect elevated volatility, potential continued selling from airdrop recipients, and short-term bearish tilt; monitor on-chain flows, liquidity provider movements, perp volumes and derivatives positioning for trade signals.

Venture capital firm a16z Crypto forecasts 2025 as a watershed year for stablecoins, predicting they will transition from niche crypto instruments into core settlement rails for global finance. The March 2025 outlook cites three converging drivers: clearer regulation in major jurisdictions (US, EU), active integration of stablecoin rails by traditional financial institutions and payment processors, and blockchain scalability improvements that lower transaction costs and increase throughput. Key use cases highlighted include faster, cheaper cross-border payments (minutes vs. days; often <1% fees vs. 3–5%), privacy-enhanced compliant transactions via zero-knowledge proofs, and expanded programmable finance (DeFi) services such as instant collateralized lending and 24/7 payroll. The report notes stablecoin networks’ settled value has begun to rival established processors like Visa, and accelerating CBDC projects validate the model. Risks remain: AML/KYC compliance complexity, reserve transparency, and de-pegging/custodial risks. For traders, the outlook suggests increased institutional flows into dollar-pegged and fiat-backed stablecoins, potential growth in on-chain payment volumes, and heightened regulatory scrutiny that could produce episodic volatility around policy developments.