Ether-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) led crypto fund flows with a combined $140 million inflow, outpacing products tied to other major tokens even as Bitcoin and Solana prices slipped. The inflows were concentrated in spot Ether ETFs and related products following renewed investor interest in Ethereum exposure. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) and Solana (SOL) saw modest outflows or weaker performance, with traders reallocating capital toward Ether-backed instruments. Market reaction included short-term profit-taking in BTC and SOL and increased demand for ETH exposure via ETFs. Key figures: $140 million net inflow to Ether ETFs; notable relative weakness in BTC and SOL during the same period. Implications for traders: watch ETF flow data as a near-term driver of ETH liquidity and price action; expect potential rotation between major assets as fund allocations shift. Primary keywords: Ether ETFs, ETH ETFs, Bitcoin, Solana. Secondary/semantic keywords included: fund flows, spot Ether, ETF inflows, trader reallocation, market liquidity.
Kalshi, a regulated prediction market exchange, has reached a landmark partnership with CNBC to integrate Kalshi’s real-time probability data into CNBC’s on-air graphics, digital content and analysis. The deal lets anchors and analysts reference crowd-sourced probabilities on economic and political events — for example, inflation outcomes and Federal Reserve decisions — bringing prediction-market sentiment into mainstream financial coverage. Kalshi previously struck a media partnership with CNN; the CNBC agreement expands the platform’s exposure to a dedicated financial audience and acts as a strong credibility signal. Benefits cited include enhanced news depth, added investor insight, and mainstream legitimacy for prediction markets. Key risks involve regulatory complexity and the challenge of maintaining data integrity and predictive quality as Kalshi’s user base grows. The partnership could prompt other networks to seek similar data sources or build proprietary sentiment tools. This development primarily affects market information flows and investor sentiment rather than on-chain fundamentals.
Neutral
KalshiPrediction MarketsCNBC PartnershipMarket SentimentFinancial Media
Bitcoin has entered an extended negative 20-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 (current coefficient ~-0.43), marking the fourth such episode in five years. Past occurrences — May 2021 (China mining ban), July 2021/yen-carry unwind, September 2023 and August 2024 — coincided with meaningful BTC local lows ($30k in 2021, ~$49k after the yen unwind, sub-$30k in 2023 and lows in 2024), after which bitcoin recovered materially. Since its October all-time high, bitcoin is down about 27% and briefly fell as much as 36%; by contrast the Nasdaq 100’s maximum drawdown has been ~8% and it sits roughly 2% below its record high. The divergence suggests bitcoin is decoupling from broader tech risk assets — a pattern that historically signaled a bottom for BTC, though timing and certainty of a rebound remain unclear. Key metrics: 20-day correlation ≈ -0.43; BTC ~27% below ATH; Nasdaq 100 ~2% below record; prior negative-correlation bottoms: 2021, 2023, 2024. Traders should watch correlation trends, BTC price vs. prior local lows, and tech-sector breadth to gauge potential entry points.
Midnight Foundation launched the NIGHT token on Dec. 4, marking it as the first Cardano native asset and providing immediate liquidity ahead of the Midnight mainnet launch planned next week. Midnight will be a zero-knowledge sidechain on Cardano; when mainnet goes live NIGHT’s supply will be mirrored on the Midnight ledger and Glacier airdrop participants can redeem tokens. Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson said Midnight should improve scaling and expand stablecoin and DeFi capacity. Separately, Cardano developers proposed using 70 million ADA from the treasury to boost stablecoins, attract oracle providers such as Chainlink, and enhance analytics. Work continues on Leios, a consensus redesign intended to increase throughput via parallel processing. ADA traded around $0.4475 after this week’s low of $0.3713, with market cap reported above $16 billion. Technical resistance sits at $0.5077 and the 100-day EMA near $0.61; a break above those levels would be bullish, while a drop below $0.3713 would invalidate upside momentum. Market participants are also watching potential Grayscale ADA product timing, which could lift US investor demand.
Zebec Network and payroll processor NatPay launched NatPayNOW on Dec. 3, a real-time payroll service that routes conventional NACHA payroll files through the Federal Reserve’s FedNow instant-pay rail while using Zebec’s Solana-based settlement layer. NatPay acts as the FedNow participant and processor, handling legacy payroll workflows for employers; Zebec provides on-chain settlement compatibility and ISO 20022 messaging support. NatPay processes roughly $150 billion in annual payroll and serves over 300,000 ACH clients, giving the integration broad distribution. The service delivers wages to employees in seconds — including weekends and holidays — removing batch ACH delays. Real-time delivery requires employee banks to support FedNow; participation is growing but not yet universal. Zebec reported processing more than $400 million in payroll over the past 12 months, supporting 250+ employers and 12,000 workers; it also issued 65,000 payment cards tied to payroll flows. Integration supports both bank settlement and on-chain options, raising compliance considerations. Zebec’s native token ZBCN was trading at about $0.002982 on Dec. 4, down roughly 1.5% over 24 hours. Key keywords: Solana payroll, FedNow, NatPayNOW, real-time payroll, NACHA, ISO 20022.
Swiss asset manager 21Shares clarified that its planned US spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) has not yet been declared effective by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The firm said the ETF remains pending regulatory approval and warned that a screenshot showing 21Shares products on Vanguard’s brokerage search led to mistaken assumptions that the XRP product was already approved. Under the SEC’s Sept. 17 updated listing framework, exchanges can list qualified spot-crypto ETFs once registration statements become effective, removing the need for separate per-product exchange rule filings. 21Shares filed required amendments in early November and entered the SEC’s standard 20-day effectiveness period, but stressed that operational readiness (custody, clearing, DTCC listing) does not replace the SEC’s final “effective” declaration. Several spot XRP ETFs have already launched in the U.S.; as of Dec. 3 the category recorded $50.27 million in daily net inflows, $874.28 million cumulative inflows and $906.46 million in total net assets — roughly 0.68% of XRP’s market cap. Major incumbents include Canary’s XRPC (~$355M), Grayscale GXRP (~$226M), Bitwise and Franklin Templeton products (~$195M and ~$130M). 21Shares’ clarification underscores that listing visibility on broker platforms can precede but not substitute formal SEC approval — a key consideration for traders monitoring new ETF listings and potential liquidity events in XRP markets.
Pionex.US has listed XDC (XDC Network) and opened XDC/USDT and XDC/USD spot markets for U.S. users. To support the listing, the exchange launched a limited campaign (Dec 2–17) offering zero-fee USDC deposits/withdrawals via the XDC chain, a 0.1% swap incentive for USDT→USDC (capped within a $1,000,000 reward pool), and 0.1% cashback on an XDC credit card for users holding >30,000 USDC on-platform. Campaign rewards will be credited by Dec 30; the exchange may disqualify abusive accounts. The listing extends XDC availability alongside existing U.S. venues such as Binance.US and Kraken, though initial price reaction was muted — XDC traded near $0.05, down ~1.3% over 24 hours at press time. The XDC Network, launched in 2019, uses a delegated proof-of-stake (XDPoS) consensus and targets on-chain trade-finance settlement, stablecoin transfers, tokenized receivables, and smart-contract use cases. The promotion aims to grow liquidity and stablecoin activity on the XDC chain and broaden regulated access points for on-chain settlement assets.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will publish an "innovation exemption" under Project Crypto to give crypto firms temporary relief from certain securities-law obligations so they can launch and test on-chain products and services sooner. Announced Dec. 4 with an expected publication window between Dec 2025 and Jan 2026 across the two reports, the framework aims to replace the SEC’s prior "regulation by enforcement" posture with clearer, advance guidance and proportionate rules tailored to firm size and business model. The exemption will permit faster token sales, staking services and multi-asset trading products while permanent Project Crypto rules are finalized. Eligible firms will face enhanced disclosures, investor-protection safeguards, ongoing SEC oversight and must still comply with anti-fraud and market-integrity obligations. The SEC plans coordination with the CFTC and cited international frameworks such as the EU’s MiCA; no detailed eligibility criteria were published yet. Traders should monitor formal SEC guidance, and prepare governance, custody and reporting processes to qualify — the move is intended to increase legal certainty, potentially accelerate product launches, and attract capital and innovation back to the U.S.
Electric Coin Company released Zashi 2.4.9 with performance improvements, UI changes and privacy-focused fixes. Key updates: a Swap button on the Home screen for faster swaps; Flexa and Keystone moved to a new bottom sheet alongside Settings; Coinbase integration removed due to privacy risks; Tor can now be enabled from the wallet Restore screen to prevent leaking information during sync. Under the hood, Zashi now retrieves the ZEC-USD rate from a single CoinMarketCap API (users may disable Tor for this call, though Tor is recommended). The release also includes smarter error handling and numerous bug fixes based on user reports. Traders should note the removal of Coinbase integration (may affect fiat on-ramps) and improved privacy options, alongside faster UX for swaps and more reliable rate fetching.
Digitap ($TAP) has accelerated its presale and product rollout, moving from early fundraising into visible live utility. The omnibank app is live on major app stores, offering instant virtual cards, orderable physical Visa cards without KYC, and multi‑rail fiat support (SWIFT, SEPA, ACH, Faster Payments) alongside crypto and stablecoin handling. Digitap claims transfers in minutes at under 1% fees by combining blockchain and traditional rails. The presale began at $0.0125 and has risen to $0.0334 (≈160% gain); the next price tier is $0.0361. Reported metrics: ~137 million TAP sold, over $2.2M raised, total supply capped at 2 billion. Tokenomics highlight include 50% of platform profits allocated to buybacks and burns, a fixed staking reward pool (no inflationary issuance), and early‑exit penalties that burn unclaimed tokens. Marketing — including a Black Friday promotion with hourly deals and >$1M in prizes — has helped drive inflows and presale sales. The coverage contrasts Digitap’s live utility and presale velocity with Cardano (ADA), which is showing a downtrend and weak buyer interest after price falls and a prior mainnet malformed transaction event; Dogecoin (DOGE) is also cited for weak ETF launch volume, underscoring softer memecoin demand. Note: the original pieces were paid press releases and are not investment advice.
Bullish
DigitapTAP PresaleNo‑KYC Visa CardCrypto PaymentsCardano (ADA)
XRP has declined toward key support after a week-long slide, trading around $2.13 (down ~1.3%) and roughly 40% below its July peak. Spot volume fell about 27% to $3.4 billion, indicating reduced trader conviction. Funding rates have been persistently negative and short positions now outnumber longs, increasing downside pressure and raising the probability of a retest of the $2.00–$1.90 range. CryptoQuant warns funding below -0.01 could push XRP toward $1.90, while a further funding drop followed by rapid short-covering could produce a quick squeeze up to $2.25–$2.35. On-chain velocity jumped to a 2024 high (0.0324 on Dec 2), signalling heightened whale and high-volume trader activity consistent with distribution or repositioning. Technical indicators remain weak: price is below the 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages; Bollinger Bands have narrowed with the lower band near ~$1.96; MACD shows a tentative, weak bullish crossover; RSI is neutral around 48. Immediate supports are $2.00 and $1.90, while primary resistance sits at $2.25–$2.35. For traders: monitor funding rates, short interest, on-chain velocity and spot volume for signs of intensified selling or a short squeeze. Expect elevated short-term bearish risk but be prepared for rapid, volatile bounces if funding reverses or short covering accelerates.
S&P Dow Jones Indices has added WhiteBIT’s native token WBT to five benchmark indices: the S&P Cryptocurrency Broad Digital Market (BDM) Index, Broad Digital Asset (BDA) Index, Cryptocurrency Financials Index, LargeCap Ex‑MegaCap Index and LargeCap Index. Inclusion required multi‑quarter evidence of stable liquidity, transparent price formation, consistent market cap and governance and risk controls — criteria signalling institutional readiness. WBT reached an all‑time high of $62.96 on 18 November 2025; its sustained liquidity and price behaviour across quarters helped meet S&P’s standards. WhiteBIT CEO Volodymyr Nosov described the listings as validation of the exchange’s compliant infrastructure. The index additions make WBT eligible for use in ETFs/ETNs, institutional allocation models and quantitative strategies, increasing the token’s visibility to product builders and long‑term investors. For traders, this typically means potential uplift in demand and liquidity for WBT, greater inclusion in passive products, and higher visibility among institutions — while standard crypto risks (market volatility, macro drivers, and liquidity shifts) remain. Primary keywords: WBT, WhiteBIT, S&P Dow Jones Indices, crypto indices, ETF. Semantic keywords: institutional adoption, liquidity, market cap, index inclusion.
Bullish
WBTWhiteBITS&P Dow Jones Indicescrypto indicesinstitutional adoption
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan dismissed claims that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) would be forced to liquidate its large Bitcoin treasury if removed from MSCI indexes or after recent BTC price weakness. In a Dec. 3 note titled “No, Virginia, Strategy Is Not Going To Sell Its Bitcoin,” Hougan called the premise that index exclusion or market pressure would compel sales “completely flawed.” He estimates a 75% chance Strategy could be removed from indexes but says trading below NAV would not legally or operationally force Bitcoin sales. Hougan highlighted Strategy’s liquidity buffer — approximately $1.44bn raised via at‑the‑market equity issuance — intended to cover dividends and interest for at least 12 months, and noted the company’s first debt maturity is in 2027. Bitwise also pointed out that past index flows were overstated (when Strategy joined the Nasdaq‑100, ~$2.1bn in buying had little price impact) and that recent price declines already price in some risk. Separately, Strategy has continued to add BTC (Bitwise reports Strategy’s reported total near 650,000 BTC). Bitwise’s view aims to calm fears of forced large-scale BTC liquidations that could cascade through markets; traders should monitor index decisions, Strategy liquidity, and any change in corporate policy on selling appreciated coins versus holding.
Cryptocurrency analysis firm Alphractal says the recent Bitcoin plunge to around $81,000 was not a routine correction but a capitulation event. The firm points to three rare, simultaneous on-chain signals — including significant miner shutdowns and forced selling/liquidations — that together drove a fast, violent decline beyond normal pullbacks. Alphractal notes long-term holders spending coins en masse, a behavior seen when market psychology breaks. The company’s proprietary “Capitulation Oscillator” rose sharply during the event; historically, such spikes often mark the final leg of a downtrend or the start of a flattening period (as seen in 2021), though it does not guarantee an absolute bottom. Traders should treat this as a high-impact liquidity event tied to miner stress and forced liquidations rather than a typical technical correction. (Not investment advice.)
A short viral video shared by commentator John Squire reframes XRP as a practical tool for solving entrenched cross‑border payment problems, rather than a speculative asset. The clip argues that legacy remittance rails suffer from high fees, slow settlement and liquidity friction — issues blockchain rails and stablecoins (and specifically Ripple’s XRP as a bridge currency) can address by enabling near‑instant, 24/7 settlement and reducing the need for pre‑funded correspondent accounts. The piece links XRP’s utility to real-world pain points for migrants, SMEs and emerging‑market users, while noting regulatory uncertainty (AML/KYC rules, unclear crypto laws) and incumbent systems like SWIFT still limit rapid scale. Key adoption signals to monitor include institutional settlement pilots, live remittance corridors using XRP, transparent pricing data and regulatory clarity. The article positions the video’s thesis as a testable claim: if practical adoption and measurable savings follow, XRP could shift parts of the global payments landscape. (Disclaimer: not financial advice.)
MicroStrategy (MSTR) has sharply reduced Bitcoin accumulation during 2025 and shifted its treasury policy toward liquidity and risk management, according to on‑chain analyst CryptoQuant. Monthly BTC purchases dropped from a 2024 peak of ~134,000 BTC to about 9,100 BTC in November 2025 and just 135 BTC so far in December. The company raised over $1.44 billion via common equity to create a US dollar reserve intended to cover preferred‑stock dividends (~$700M annually) and bond interest for 12–24 months. MicroStrategy disclosed it may sell Bitcoin or Bitcoin derivatives as part of risk management and has adopted a dual‑reserve model separating long‑term BTC holdings from short‑term dollar liquidity. The firm currently holds ~650,000 BTC (~$61B) and its average buy price is around $74,436, leaving a paper gain of ~26% at current prices but exposure if a prolonged bear market occurs. MSTR share price has declined substantially in 2025, down about 60% since mid‑July and ~35% year‑to‑date at the time of reporting. Key takeaways for traders: reduced corporate BTC demand, higher likelihood of institutional selling or derivatives use for liquidity, and increased balance‑sheet conservatism amid broad bearish on‑chain and technical indicators.
MetaMask has added Polymarket directly into its iOS and Android mobile apps, allowing users to browse markets, place trades and monitor prediction‑market positions without leaving the wallet. The integration uses existing MetaMask addresses and preserves Polymarket’s trading and blockchain gas fees. By eliminating external browsers and repeated wallet connections, the feature reduces phishing risk, improves UX and speeds execution for time‑sensitive event trades. Practical benefits for traders include easier portfolio aggregation across crypto and prediction positions, faster entry and exit for event-driven strategies, and more opportunities for mobile arbitrage and hedging. Key caveats remain: regulatory uncertainty around prediction markets and the need for user education on event‑based trading risks. Overall, the move underscores a trend of wallets evolving into full Web3 portals and could boost retail participation and on‑chain activity in decentralized prediction markets.
MicroStrategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin (BTC), is trading at a market capitalization below the value of its BTC reserves, creating a persistent NAV inversion. The company holds about 650,000 BTC (roughly $60B) while MSTR market cap sits near $55B; after accounting for roughly $8.2B in debt and other obligations the market assigns little value to its software business. Management created a $1.44B cash reserve to cover dividends and interest and says it may sell limited BTC if market NAV falls below 1, while also claiming modest leverage (1.11x) and survivability in severe BTC drawdowns. MSCI is evaluating whether to reclassify or remove companies with large crypto treasuries from global indices by January — a move that Reuters says Michael Saylor has discussed with MSCI and that JPMorgan warns could trigger up to $8.8B in index-related outflows if other providers follow. Analysts note elevated short interest, higher margin requirements at JPMorgan, and the prospect of forced or index-driven selling have weighed heavily on MSTR shares, driving correlation and volatility between MSTR and BTC. Key trader takeaways: strong spot-link between MSTR and BTC price; elevated forced-selling and liquidity risk; possible index-driven selling that could amplify short-term BTC volatility; and concentrated Bitcoin holding (over 3% of supply) that raises systemic liquidity concerns.
Meta Platforms announced a 30% reduction in spending on its metaverse initiatives for 2026 after accumulating roughly $60 billion in losses across its metaverse efforts. The move followed prolonged shareholder pressure to prioritise profitability over experimental projects. META shares rose about 5% at the US open on Dec 4, 2025, before easing to roughly 3.5% intraday; the stock traded near $666 at the time of reporting. The cuts could include layoffs and mark a strategic pivot away from the metaverse narrative that had influenced several crypto projects. Key figures: ~$60 billion cumulative losses, 30% budget cut for 2026, ~5% immediate stock gain. Primary keywords: Meta, metaverse, META stock, budget cut. Secondary/semantic keywords: layoffs, tech sector pivot, fiscal impact, crypto metaverse projects.
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has authorised listed spot cryptocurrency trading on federally regulated markets, allowing firms holding designated contract market (DCM) or derivatives clearing organization (DCO) status to offer compliant spot crypto trading. The decision, announced Dec. 4, 2025, follows the CFTC’s “Crypto Sprint” initiative to implement the Working Group on Digital Asset Markets recommendations. Bitnomial’s self-certification filing became the first to clear the required 10-day review window and launch under the new framework. The move ends the CFTC’s prior “regulation by enforcement” approach, according to Acting Chair Pham, and creates a clear federal path for exchanges such as Cboe, CME, LedgerX, Crypto.com and potential TradFi entrants like Charles Schwab to operate spot crypto venues. Market participants can now pursue leveraged spot, perpetuals, futures and options on federally regulated platforms, which proponents say improves legal clarity and could attract institutional liquidity.
Former Signature Bank executives have launched N3XT, a blockchain-powered narrow (full-reserve) bank operating under a Wyoming SPDI charter. N3XT settles payments instantly on a private blockchain and supports programmable U.S. dollar payments via smart contracts, targeting institutional clients across crypto, shipping, logistics and FX. The bank does not lend deposits; each dollar is backed 1:1 by cash or short-term U.S. Treasuries and holdings are disclosed daily. CEO Jeffrey Wallis (ex-Director of Digital Asset Strategy at Signature) leads the firm; Scott Shay (Signature co-founder and Signet creator) is a founder. N3XT has raised about $72 million from investors including Paradigm, Winklevoss Capital and HACK VC. The product aims to revive Signature’s Signet-style real-time, 24/7 payments model but with narrow-bank risk profile and full-reserve transparency, catering to businesses that need automated, compliant, instant dollar rails.
Binance’s aggregate leverage ratio has declined to a 30-day low after the exchange updated collateral requirements and leverage tiers. The policy changes discourage extreme leverage, forcing higher‑risk positions to deleverage or exit, which reduces liquidation risk during volatile periods. Research cited in the report notes that high leverage can amplify Bitcoin volatility during downturns; therefore, the observed deleveraging is seen as a stabilizing development for the exchange and broader market. Key takeaways: lower leverage on Binance, reduced speculative positioning, updated collateral/leverage rules, and an implied improvement in short-term market stability. Traders should monitor funding rates, open interest, and on‑exchange leverage metrics for confirmation of sustained deleveraging.
Solmate (formerly Brera Holdings PLC), an Abu Dhabi–based company focused on Solana, has signed a nonbinding all‑stock term sheet to acquire RockawayX. The transaction would combine RockawayX’s validator infrastructure, on‑chain market making and liquidity services, venture and credit funds, and staking assets into Solmate, creating a combined group with over $2 billion in assets under management and third‑party stakes. The merged business aims to unify staking, hardware, market‑making and asset management while offering latency‑sensitive services — including transaction ordering — for exchanges, high‑frequency traders and institutional clients, with Abu Dhabi positioned as an operational hub. The companies recently began cooperating by deploying Solana validators in the UAE to support local institutional staking. The deal remains subject to definitive agreements, regulatory clearance and shareholder approval and is expected to close in H1 2026. RockawayX brings on‑chain market‑making, lending and validator staking (about $1.1B staked) plus roughly $1.04B in venture and credit fund AUM. Following the announcement, Solmate’s stock (SLMT) rose about 6% in early trading. Primary keywords: Solmate acquisition, RockawayX, Solana infrastructure, staking, on‑chain liquidity. Secondary keywords: validator, asset management, Abu Dhabi hub, all‑stock deal, AUM $2B.
BitMine continued aggressive accumulation of ether (ETH), purchasing roughly $150 million in ETH through two large transactions via BitGo and Kraken. On-chain analytics showed the buys comprised about 18,345 ETH from BitGo and 30,278 ETH from Kraken, adding to recent purchases that included 14,000+ ETH a week earlier and a separate 96,000+ ETH acquisition. The combined activity has pushed BitMine’s ETH holdings past 3% of circulating supply and lifted its treasury value toward roughly $11–12 billion. Tom Lee’s firm has stated a target of reaching 5% of total supply. The buying streak occurs amid a broader slowdown in DAT (Digital Asset Treasury) purchases: Bitwise data indicates November DAT purchases fell to ~370,000 ETH versus an August peak near 1.97 million ETH. Many smaller treasuries faced shrinking mNAVs, narrowed premiums and liquidity stress; some approached insolvency. BitMine’s stock (BMNR) has declined sharply — down over 80% from peak — and the company carries sizable unrealized losses (~$2.8B reported), raising questions about shareholder sentiment and long-term strategy. For traders: the purchase signals continued institutional demand for ETH from a major treasury despite sector-wide cooling, which may support ETH price floors but also highlights concentrated risk tied to DAT balance sheets and equity-market sentiment for crypto firms.
Reporter Joanna Glasner argues leading AI unicorns such as Anthropic — and potentially OpenAI — should be preparing for initial public offerings (IPOs). Recent media reports suggest Anthropic is pursuing private funding at a valuation above $300 billion, while OpenAI has reportedly eyed an IPO valuation up to $1 trillion and could file as early as H2 2026. Glasner says startups benefit from IPO readiness even if a listing is delayed or canceled, because filings reveal revenue, growth and shareholder stakes and provide liquidity and fundraising opportunities. Historical context: no U.S. venture-backed IPO has debuted near the valuations being discussed; Meta remains the record-holder at $104 billion at IPO. The piece notes muted IPO activity since the 2020–2022 startup boom, with hopes for a resurgence in 2026 if major generative-AI offerings materialize. Key keywords: AI IPO, Anthropic valuation, OpenAI IPO, unicorn IPO, public offering preparation.
Wolfe Research analysts say Bitcoin is in a "bear-bull battle" as market participants split between believing the bear market has begun and that the bottom has arrived. BTC surged above $90,000 after a rapid two-day recovery, but Wolfe maintains its view that Bitcoin’s bottom will be near $75,000. The firm warns of continued weakness in crypto ETF inflows and broader digital-asset declines, which could trigger a bearish wave. Short-term momentum has improved, but the next major technical test is at $101,000 (the 50-day moving average); the psychological level of $100,000 is also highlighted. Analysts frame the current split market as a potential buying opportunity but reiterate caution. (Not investment advice.)
Mutuum Finance (MUTM), a decentralized lending protocol, has jumped roughly 250% from its $0.01 presale price to about $0.035 amid heavy demand in its token sale. Phase 6 allocation is reported at over 98% sold, with under 2% remaining and large whale purchases accelerating the close. The project has raised about $19.1 million, sold ~810 million tokens and registered more than 18,300 holders from a 4 billion total supply (1.82B in presale). Protocol mechanics: lenders receive interest-bearing mtTokens, borrowers face variable rates with loan‑to‑value limits and liquidations, and platform revenue will support MUTM buybacks and staker rewards. Security claims include a CertiK token scan score of 90/100, Halborn reviewing core contracts and a $50,000 bug bounty. Roadmap: a V1 testnet on Sepolia in Q4 2025 supporting ETH and USDT, with liquidity pools, mtTokens, a liquidator bot and debt monitoring; longer-term plans include a USD‑pegged stablecoin backed by borrower interest, layer‑2 expansion and Chainlink‑style oracles. Market takeaways for traders: rapid presale allocation and reported whale buys can produce short-term volatility and FOMO-driven inflows; high presale share (≈45% of total supply) and large unsold tranche dynamics raise short‑term liquidity and dilution risks; audit scores and bug bounty partially mitigate security concerns but do not replace full audits of all contracts. Some analysts model potential 5–7x upside if adoption expands after V1, with up to ~12x in bullish scenarios. Traders should weigh near‑term liquidity squeeze and promotional dynamics against mid/long‑term utility (mtToken yields, buyback pressure, stablecoin plans) when sizing positions.
On‑chain data from Glassnode shows more than 25% of Bitcoin supply is now in unrealized loss after BTC fell below the 0.75 cost‑basis quantile in mid‑November. The drop indicates recent large buyers are underwater, increasing structural risk and market sensitivity to macro shocks. Bitcoin failed to reclaim the key $94,000 region on Dec 3 and currently trades around $92,500; the 0.75 quantile sits near $95,800 while a break above the 0.85 quantile (~$106,200) would be needed for a more decisive bullish shift. Technicals (DMI, ADX) show weakening bullish momentum and a failed higher‑low, suggesting buyers lack conviction. With over a quarter of supply underwater, the market faces two paths: top‑buyer capitulation causing a deeper reset, or seller exhaustion leading to stabilization if the underwater supply is absorbed. Traders should watch cost‑basis quantiles (0.75 and 0.85), $94K resistance, macro drivers (yield and liquidity), and on‑chain flow for signs of capitulation or recovery.
American Bitcoin, the Nasdaq-listed bitcoin mining and treasury company backed by Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., purchased 363 BTC during the sharp November correction, bringing its total holdings to 4,367 BTC as of Dec. 2. The buy occurred as BTC fell from its all-time highs (~$126,080) toward about $82,000, adding roughly $34 million to the company’s bitcoin treasury at prevailing prices. American Bitcoin was formed this year through a merger involving Hut8 and a reverse merger with Gryphon Digital Mining and now ranks among the top public bitcoin treasuries (No. 23 on bitcointreasuries.net). Its shares saw notable volatility after a private-placement lockup expired, sliding as much as ~50% (reports vary between 38–50%) before partially recovering. Management called the purchase “strategic accumulation” and emphasised metrics like bitcoin-per-share as the company’s long-term value drivers. The move mirrors a broader trend of public firms increasing BTC reserves (à la MicroStrategy) and is relevant for traders because it signals institutional buying at dip levels, potential increases in bitcoin-per-share for miner-linked stocks, and continued correlation between miner treasury strategies and spot BTC demand.
Bullish
American BitcoinBitcoin treasuryBTC accumulationBitcoin miningTrump-backed firm