Latest Crypto News | Bitcoin, Ethereum and Altcoin Updates

A Bitcoin miner from Simple Mining used Ocean’s DATUM pool tooling but declined to signal support for the controversial BIP-110 soft-fork. Simple Mining mined block 961,634 on the main Bitcoin chain, two blocks after BIP-110 supporters broke away. The firm said its mined block did not include the BIP-110 signal and argued that “hashrate is a vote you cannot fake.” The data behind the split matters: BIP-110 support peaked at about 2.6% of hashrate, far below the 55% threshold it sought to reach for restricting non-financial data in transactions for a year. After BIP-110 nodes began rejecting blocks without the signal at height 961,632, the forked chain produced only two blocks (961,632 and 961,633) before stalling. Meanwhile, the dominant Bitcoin chain advanced by more than 200 blocks to around 961,725. Why the pool involvement is notable: Ocean had switched miners to BIP-110 signalling by default in July, yet DATUM allowed individual miners to opt out. As a result, Ocean appeared on both sides of the weekend split—one miner produced the first BIP-110-accepted block, while Simple Mining extended the main chain without the BIP-110 signal.

Crypto traders are seeing a fast “clean-up cycle” in the crypto industry. Using RootData, the article says that since the start of 2026, 100+ crypto projects have closed, filed for bankruptcy, or permanently stopped operations, and the pace is accelerating. In the week around late July, BitMEX, BitMart, Movement Labs and Storj Labs announced shutdowns. The wave spans exchanges, wallets, DeFi lending protocols, NFT markets, and even Layer 1 networks—Moonbeam (a Polkadot parachain) stopped permanently on July 31, leaving some users unable to move cross-chain assets before the cutoff. The pressure is not limited to one stack. Ethereum Layer 2 is also consolidating after over-expansion and overlapping “general-purpose” designs. Meanwhile, the article argues the core problem is in business fundamentals: usage does not equal revenue. Many teams relied on “token-as-revenue” to fund payroll, liquidity incentives and audits. When competitive tokens fell 70%–90% in the bear market, cash runway collapsed. Examples include Tally (governance services), Step Finance (SOL phishing theft of 261,854 SOL), and Everclear (high volume but slow partner launches). Security is the final accelerant. Blockaid estimates 2026H1 on-chain attack losses hit $1.1B+, exceeding all of 2025. April was the worst month for attacks: Kelp DAO lost about $293M and Drift Protocol about $285M. TRM Labs adds that North Korea-linked hackers accounted for 66% of global crypto hack losses in 2026H1. The crypto industry is also leaving “zombie” contracts on-chain, which raises tail-risk even after teams shut down. Impact: traders should expect higher volatility, more counterparty risk, and increased scrutiny on revenue sources (USD-based fees) and security posture. Watch survivors like Hyperliquid, Aave and Ether.fi, which are cited for durable fee/earnings models.

BitMEX announced it will delist 5 illiquid spot pairs on 14 Aug 2026. Trading in these pairs will stop at 12:00 UTC. This comes as BitMEX’s exchange closure approaches. The notice provided no extra operational steps beyond directing users to its blog and Support for questions. For traders, this BitMEX delist may reduce accessible liquidity and exit routes for anyone holding or relying on the affected spot instruments. It also adds short-term uncertainty around routing, custody, and order execution as the shutdown progresses. Traders should review any positions and strategies tied to the specified BitMEX spot pairs well before the 12:00 UTC deadline on 14 Aug 2026. Separately, earlier BitMEX messaging covered delisting illiquid derivatives around 30 July 2026, which can also shift liquidity and settlement timing near cutoff windows.

Coinsbuy, an enterprise crypto payment processor, reported a hack after wallets on Ethereum (ETH) and TRON (TRX) were drained of more than $7.9 million. The Coinsbuy hack was flagged by on-chain monitoring on Aug. 10, with suspicious outflows traced to Coinsbuy-linked wallets rather than evidence of ETH or TRON network flaws. Specter’s investigation found funds moved across both chains, pointing to compromised keys or weaknesses in Coinsbuy’s multi-chain wallet operations. To slow detection, the attacker routed part of the stolen crypto through exchanges and converted it into Monero (XMR), using privacy features that can make tracing harder. Coinsbuy temporarily suspended deposits and withdrawals, then restored services after the breach. It also partnered with non-custodial exchange ChangeNOW to freeze a six-figure portion of the stolen funds before further liquidation. Current findings suggest this is likely an isolated incident, not a broader systemic vulnerability. For traders, the Coinsbuy hack reinforces ongoing counterparty and custody risk in institutional on-chain payment infrastructure. The XMR leg may delay forensic visibility, but the overall market impact is likely limited to sentiment around the affected rails rather than a direct move in ETH or TRX.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) says the Philippines’ digital economy represents 2.5% of GDP, trailing Taiwan (6.1%), South Korea (5.8%), and Singapore (5.4%). The ADB highlights that the Philippines’ digital economy is boosted by high fintech adoption and expanding digital finance, which improves access to payment systems and supports cross-border transactions. E-commerce adoption also rose to 31.2% of firms in 2021 (from 14% in 2013). However, the ADB warns that rapid growth brings risks: cybersecurity threats, fraud, and over-indebtedness. It also cites regulatory fragmentation, inadequate infrastructure, and a digital skills gap as barriers preventing the Philippines’ digital economy—and small businesses—from fully benefiting. In its 2024 Digitalization Index, the Philippines scores 35.4, placing it in the emerging stage of digitalization. The ADB calls for legally binding cross-border e-commerce frameworks, reduced digital trade barriers, stronger digital skills, and investment to bridge digital divides and build trusted, interoperable ecosystems. Separately, a WSFS Bank survey in Greater Philadelphia and Delaware finds consumers increasing use of payment apps (67%) and digital wallets (54%), with a shift from cash and credit toward debit-based budgeting amid inflation. For crypto traders, the report is a macro signal that fintech and payments adoption are rising, but it also emphasizes fraud and cybersecurity—key risk factors for digital-asset and payment infrastructure.

XRPL Confidential Transfers has cleared a major engineering step and is now moving toward XRPL validator governance. The rippled client merged support for “Confidential Transfers for Multi‑Purpose Tokens” into its develop branch on 27 June 2026, based on the draft standard XLS‑0096. XLS‑0096 defines confidential balances and transfers for MPTs using modern cryptography and issuer opt‑in controls. The code adds new confidential transaction types (e.g., ConfidentialMPTSend, ConfidentialMPTConvert, ConfidentialMPTMergeInbox, ConfidentialMPTConvertBack, ConfidentialMPTClawback) and on‑chain proof verification for EC‑ElGamal ciphertexts, Pedersen commitments, compact sigma proofs, and aggregated Bulletproof range proofs. Activation depends on XRPL’s amendment process. If validators open a vote that includes XRPL Confidential Transfers (potentially alongside Batch transactions), the amendment must secure >80% support from trusted validators continuously for two weeks to enable on mainnet. Media reporting—citing validator “Vet”—suggested a vote window in mid‑to‑late July, with the first concrete trading signal being validator voting dashboards and declarations. Traders should watch for validator voting announcements and XRPL amendment listings as confirmations arrive; until the vote threshold is met, the market impact of XRPL Confidential Transfers is likely limited.

NYSE, via parent company Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), is building an onchain settlement platform for tokenized securities. The plan pairs NYSE’s Pillar matching engine with blockchain systems to run post-trade functions, aiming for 24/7 trading, instant onchain settlement, dollar-denominated orders, and stablecoin-funded orders. Multi-chain support is also expected. NYSE says the key upgrade is instant, atomic settlement. US equities currently settle on a T+1 basis (one business day after trade execution). With the onchain settlement platform, NYSE targets simultaneous execution and ownership transfer. Stablecoin funding is positioned as the operational enabler for 24/7 markets, since traditional banking rails are closed on weekends while stablecoins can continue transferring value. On Aug 8, 2026, NYSE disclosed a memorandum of understanding with Securitize, naming it the first digital transfer agent for the platform. NYSE would handle order matching and market structure. Securitize would support token issuance and transfer agency. Settlement would be handled by blockchain networks (not publicly specified yet). The project’s timeline is dependent on regulators. NYSE is seeking approvals and, as of early Aug 2026, has not set a launch date. A key unresolved issue is how the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) clearing role fits with real-time onchain settlement. Nasdaq is also exploring tokenized trading approaches. Keywords used for traders: onchain settlement platform, instant settlement, stablecoin-funded orders, tokenized securities.

US has reinforced the Hormuz blockade by blocking 55 ships in the Strait of Hormuz as US-Iran talks stall and shipping disruptions persist. The article frames the action as continued pressure on Iran’s oil and maritime access, not a diplomatic breakthrough. For traders, the key signal comes from prediction markets. The probability of the US ending the Hormuz blockade by Aug. 31, 2026 fell to 39.5% (from 57% a day earlier). Longer-dated expectations remain higher, with the Dec. 31, 2026 sub-market at 83.3% YES, implying markets see more resolution chances by year-end than in the near term. What to watch: any remarks from senior US figures (including President Trump) and whether negotiations resume or either side signals de-escalation. If the Hormuz blockade stays in place, near-term “risk-off” sentiment could intensify; a negotiation breakthrough could quickly reprice outcomes across time horizons.

U.S. prosecutors charged three men from St. Louis—Sedric Louis (32), John Davis (34), and Martel Williams (27)—with conspiracy involving a Hobbs Act robbery tied to a major Bitcoin theft. A second superseding indictment was filed May 22. The alleged target was Veer Chetal and his parents. Prosecutors say the group traveled to Connecticut from Aug. 21–24, 2024, rented vehicles, and collected equipment including air rifles and walkie-talkies. They allegedly surveilled the family for two days while waiting for an entry opportunity, aiming to threaten Chetal and force him to transfer Bitcoin from wallets controlled by the organizers. Chetal previously pleaded guilty connected to a theft of more than 4,100 BTC from a Washington, D.C. victim in Aug. 2024—valued at roughly $245 million at the time of reporting. The Danbury case expanded into an alleged broader $263 million crypto theft and money-laundering enterprise, with additional defendants tied to kidnapping-related coordination and logistics. The Missouri defendants have remained in custody since June 25 arrests. Louis and Davis entered not-guilty pleas on July 30, while Williams pleaded not guilty on July 17 and was released on bond. For traders, the key takeaway is continued risk of real-world coercion targeting high-value Bitcoin holders, which can reinforce demand for better custody and access controls.

Bitcoin ETFs saw a sharp rebound, first highlighted by a late-week reversal (Apr 27–May 1) after three straight sessions of outflows. A $630M inflow surge helped Bitcoin ETFs add about $162.8M net for the week, with trading volumes staying elevated (often above $1B/day), suggesting reallocations rather than broad selling. BlackRock’s IBIT led, while Ether ETFs were pressured then, posting roughly $82M net outflows. In the latest update (Aug 3–Aug 7), Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $853.54M net inflows, with every day closing positive—its strongest weekly inflow since mid-April. IBIT again dominated with $693.64M, followed by FBTC ($116.38M) and ARKB ($50.85M). Despite the strong Bitcoin ETFs inflow, spot BTC did not show an immediate equivalent breakout and traded near ~$65,000 early Monday. Ether ETFs shifted from the earlier sell-pressure to a sustained inflow streak. Over Aug 3–Aug 7 they added $244.94M net inflows across five consecutive weeks (the longest run in 2026), led by BlackRock’s ETHA (~$203M) after an early-week redemption that later accelerated midweek. Outside BTC and ETH, smaller crypto ETF flows remained limited (e.g., XRP ~$1.01M; SOL and DOGE only modest net gains), while several products (BNB, LINK, LTC, AVAX, HBAR, DOT) showed flat net flows in the cited dataset. Combined BTC+ETH ETF flows were about $1.1B at week-end, with more than three quarters directed to Bitcoin ETFs—supportive for risk sentiment around the regulated crypto complex.

XRP fell about 5% over the past week to around $1.03, while bitcoin (BTC), ether (ETH) and solana (SOL) each rose roughly 1% to 4%. The broader crypto market added about 1.4%, lifting total market capitalization to about $2.19 trillion. Despite XRP price apathy, XRP-focused ETFs kept attracting net investor capital for a fourth straight week. However, the inflow rate sharply decelerated—down about 93% week-over-week to roughly $1 million—according to SoSoValue. By contrast, BTC and ETH ETFs pulled in hundreds of millions, highlighting a clear capital preference for the leading majors. Traders and analysts cite regulatory uncertainty as a key drag. The U.S. Senate delayed consideration of the CLARITY Act, viewed by many as important for clarifying XRP’s status. The vote is not expected until mid-September at the earliest. On the market structure side, one analyst said order flow for XRP still looks “patient,” with absorption rather than capitulation or a confirmed breakout. Separately, a long-term bullish narrative persists: one industry voice argued XRP may be positioned as a “global bridge asset,” potentially aligning with BIS tier-one asset classifications in the future. For traders, the headline is XRP underperformance alongside slowing ETF inflows—while BTC/ETH ETF demand remains strong ahead of any regulatory resolution.

Grayscale Investments has withdrawn three spot ETF registration applications with the SEC for ADA, HBAR, and DOT. On Aug. 7, 2026, the firm filed Form RW requests within 190 seconds of each other—an orderly “portfolio pruning” move rather than a broad strategy shift. Key timing: the withdrawals were filed at 4:33:37 p.m. ET (ADA), 4:34:55 p.m. ET (HBAR), and 4:36:47 p.m. ET (DOT). The original S-1 filings were submitted on Aug. 29, 2025 (ADA, DOT) and Sept. 9, 2025 (HBAR). Corresponding exchange-listing proposals (19b-4) tied to Nasdaq and NYSE Arca had already been withdrawn months earlier. According to Grayscale’s withdrawal language, it does not intend to proceed with the planned distribution of Trust shares. The registrations were not declared effective, and no shares were issued or sold. Grayscale provided no additional commercial or strategic explanation beyond standard boilerplate. Market impact appears limited: price action in ADA, HBAR, and DOT was essentially flat after the announcement. Grayscale’s Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF products were left unchanged, while five other altcoin ETF registrations remain in preliminary stages as of Aug. 8, 2026. Staking-related ETF approvals for AVAX and HYPE had already been granted prior to these withdrawals. Overall, this is another example of ETF registration applications being paused or pulled, but with minimal immediate trading disruption for the affected tokens.

China’s central bank and seven regulators issued Notice No. 42 (Feb. 6, 2026) banning unauthorized yuan stablecoin issuance. The yuan stablecoin ban applies onshore and offshore and requires explicit government approval for any RMB-pegged stablecoin product. The move builds on China’s 2021 crackdown on virtual currency trading and mining, and it extends the restrictions specifically to yuan-denominated stablecoins. The policy appears aimed at stopping private plans for offshore yuan stablecoins, including through Hong Kong, despite the August 2025 Hong Kong Stablecoin Ordinance that looked like a regulatory on-ramp. Reportedly affected firms include Ant Group and JD.com, which would need to channel any digital currency ambitions through the state-controlled e-CNY system. Regulators also reinforced that private virtual currencies are not legal tender in China, including in real-world asset tokenization. Meanwhile, e-CNY adoption is expanding: cumulative e-CNY transaction volume reached about 16.7 trillion yuan (~$2.3 trillion) by end-November 2025, and interest-bearing e-CNY account features launched in January 2026. Traders should note this yuan stablecoin ban further reduces prospects for private USD/RMB-style stablecoin growth tied to China-based issuers, while strengthening the dominant role of e-CNY in China’s regulated payments ecosystem.

Hedge funds are resuming shorting just weeks after suffering the biggest short squeeze since the March 2020 rebound. In March 2026, Goldman Sachs prime brokerage data showed short sales outpaced long buys by a 7.6-to-1 ratio globally—the fastest net selling pace in 13 years. About 76% of those shorts were concentrated in major stock indexes and ETFs, turning the trade into a broad “bet against the market,” which made the unwind swift and painful. The squeeze followed a major risk-relief catalyst: on April 8, President Trump announced a temporary ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict, and equities rallied sharply. Hedge funds scrambled to cover, with the short-covering pace the fastest since March 2020. Macro short exposure reportedly peaked at 12% of total gross exposure before the unwind, the highest since the pandemic. By late April and early May, hedge funds recalibrated their approach. Rather than adding more broad index shorts (as in March), hedge funds appear to be rebuilding bearish exposure more surgically: market-neutral positioning first, plus selective single-stock shorts and relative-value trades. Multi-strategy funds—including Citadel, Schonfeld, and ExodusPoint—reportedly navigated the turbulence better through faster repositioning. For traders, the key takeaway is that hedge funds are hedge-driven shorting again—but with tighter risk controls and less crowding into index-level bets, which could mean choppier but more managed volatility ahead.

Sony Semiconductor Solutions and TSMC signed a non-binding MOU to form a joint venture for next-generation CMOS image sensors in Kumamoto, Japan. The facility will be built in Koshi City, where the pair already operates a chip fab via the JASM partnership. The MOU, signed on May 8, could lead to roughly a $6B-plus investment, subject to a final agreement and standard closing conditions. Sony will hold majority ownership of the new JV, reversing the control dynamic in JASM, where TSMC is the majority stakeholder and Sony, Denso, and Toyota are minority investors. Production is expected to be funded in phases based on market demand. Sony also plans additional capex at its Nagasaki facility, contingent on Japanese government support. Beyond consumer electronics, the JV targets “physical AI” applications such as automotive sensors and robotics, aligning semiconductor capacity with growth in sensing and edge-robotics. As Japan continues reshoring efforts—after its share of global chip manufacturing fell from over half in the late 1980s to single digits today—the CMOS image sensors project adds another industrial bet tied to advanced manufacturing capability.

US stocks open interest hits $2B on crypto exchanges, surpassing precious metals for the first time. Data cited by the article shows that, as of June 30, 2026, US stock perpetual futures open interest on major centralized crypto exchanges reached $2.01B, overtaking precious metals at $1.69B. The crossover occurred on June 18, and the gap widened after. The “crypto TradFi” market is scaling fast. Total open interest across six tracked exchanges rose from about $60M in January 2025 to $4.67B by end-June 2026 (a 77x jump). Trading volume accelerated even more: spot plus perpetual volume for TradFi products in H1 2026 hit $1.45T, around 10x the full-year 2025 volume. US stocks saw a sharp volume surge in June 2026 (+337% month-over-month) to $189.84B. Precious metals peaked earlier (March 2026) at $236.76B before declining. Perpetuals dominate execution. In June 2026, perps accounted for 98.5% of TradFi trading volume, with Binance holding over 50% of volume. Leadership has rotated at times as product offerings expanded on venues such as OKX. Why it matters for traders: US stocks open interest hits $2B on crypto exchanges suggests equity-linked leverage demand is expanding, which can increase overall perp liquidity and influence risk appetite in crypto markets. If equity volatility rises (e.g., around semiconductors or major IPO narratives), funding and volatility across crypto TradFi perps may react quickly in the short term.

Taiwan’s Cabinet is preparing to submit a record Taiwan Military Budget 2027 proposal exceeding NT$1.1 trillion (about $34.1 billion) for fiscal year 2027. The plan would mark a 16% increase from 2026 and the first time annual defense spending surpasses NT$1 trillion. The budget is expected to keep defense spending above 3% of GDP, with Taiwan first reaching that level in 2026. In 2026, total defense spending (including coast guard and veterans’ affairs) reached NT$949.5 billion, or 3.32% of GDP, up 22.9% year over year. President Lai Ching-te aims to lift spending toward 5% of GDP by 2030. The buildup centers on asymmetric warfare to make any invasion prohibitively costly, including mobile anti-ship missiles, sea mines, drone swarms, and hardened coastal defenses. Washington supports the “porcupine strategy” and has accelerated arms sales, though delivery backlogs remain a concern for Taipei. Taiwan is also expanding its indigenous defense industrial base while buying foreign systems. It launched its first domestically built submarine in 2023, with more vessels expected as the program matures. More spending detail is expected when Taiwan’s Cabinet unveils the Taiwan Military Budget 2027 proposal on August 20, including potential allocations for procurement, personnel, maintenance, and research and development.

Australia’s Treasurer Jim Chalmers ordered the divestment of about 17.58% of Northern Minerals Ltd by six China-linked shareholders under national-interest foreign investment rules. The directive covers roughly 1.68 billion shares, with a July 2, 2026 deadline; three of the six entities missed it. After repeated non-compliance, Canberra escalated enforcement. By mid-July, voting and shareholder rights of the non-compliant parties were frozen, leaving them with rare-earths exposure but reduced control. Chalmers said this is the third intervention in as many years to limit Chinese influence over Northern Minerals. Northern Minerals operates the Browns Range project in Western Australia, producing heavy rare earths dysprosium and terbium—key inputs for permanent magnets used in EVs, wind power, and defense. The same investor group faced a FIRB block on increasing stakes in 2023, received first divestment orders in 2024, and then legal challenges. The latest step is more punitive because freezing voting rights can turn investment into stranded exposure. The policy backdrop includes the US Inflation Reduction Act and the EU Critical Raw Materials Act, both aimed at shifting critical minerals supply chains away from China. With enforcement following missed deadlines and showing no sign of easing, traders may see this as an ongoing geopolitical supply-chain risk factor—more sentiment than direct crypto fundamentals—especially for narratives around “critical minerals” regulation and cross-border investment scrutiny tied to risk appetite. (Northern Minerals headline; Northern Minerals control crackdown emphasized.)

Taiwan deploys drone swarms and unmanned boats as part of an asymmetric defense strategy focused on area denial in the Taiwan Strait. The goal is to increase the cost and complexity of any potential Chinese invasion, as both sides maintain elevated military activity. The article links Taiwan’s “hellscape” deterrence concept—also discussed in U.S. strategy terms—to market expectations for conflict risk. It cites prediction-market pricing that suggests a lower perceived likelihood of a Chinese invasion by 2027, with “YES” odds around 11.5%. It also notes that implied odds for a China–Taiwan clash before 2027 have fallen, indicating traders view deterrence as reducing near-term escalation risk. Key watch items include any Chinese official statements or military moves in response to Taiwan’s upgraded capabilities, plus potential changes in U.S. posture or diplomacy. Upcoming military drills or exercises by either side are highlighted as catalysts that could either worsen tensions or signal de-escalation. Bottom line for traders: Taiwan deploys drone swarms and unmanned boats, and the reaction in prediction markets points to slightly reduced tail-risk of invasion, which may support risk sentiment but will remain highly sensitive to new drill/incident headlines.

Strategy Inc. confirmed a $4B reserve that can cover more than two years of dividends and debt interest for its STRC preferred stock. This financial buffer is being read as support for STRC at about $95 and could enable reopening of roughly $17.5B of capacity if STRC holds a $99–$100 range. Market pricing via prediction sub-market data shows rising confidence that STRC reaches $100 by Dec 31. The December 31 “YES” probability climbed to 66.5% (from 64% one day earlier and 36% a week earlier). A key driver cited is STRC’s 12% dividend rate, which helps keep the preferred near its $100 par value. Traders are also watching Strategy’s potential use of any capacity reopening proceeds to buy Bitcoin—though that plan is conditional on STRC maintaining strength near par. Any changes to reserve utilization or dividend policy could shift sentiment, while broader Bitcoin market conditions may affect Strategy’s execution and outlook. Keywords: STRC, Strategy Inc., preferred stock reserve, dividend coverage, prediction market odds, Bitcoin capacity reopening.

China’s central bank, the PBOC, injected 18 billion yuan (about $2.5 billion) via 7-day reverse repos at a 1.40% rate. The move keeps the PBOC’s short-term policy stance steady and aligns with its pattern of deliberate liquidity management in 2026. A reverse repo is the PBOC lending cash to commercial banks using government bonds as collateral. The 7-day reverse repo rate has effectively become the benchmark reference rate, holding at 1.40% across recent operations. The article notes that similar 18 billion yuan injections in 2022–2024 were executed at higher rates near 1.80%, implying a 40 bps easing versus that earlier period to support lower borrowing costs and credit flow. This 18 billion yuan operation also fits month-end liquidity mechanics. On July 29, the PBOC conducted a much larger 806.5 billion yuan session: 206.5 billion yuan through 7-day repos at 1.40% and 600 billion yuan via overnight reverse repos at 1.25%. The overnight tool was introduced in mid-2026 to better control very short-term funding. The 1.25% overnight rate sits below the 7-day rate, consistent with yield-curve logic. Overall, this is a small but clear signal that PBOC reverse repos remain open for liquidity, without implying a sharp policy pivot.

A U.S. congressman has introduced legislation aimed at improving Bitcoin’s fiscal and policy treatment. The proposal includes a strategic Bitcoin reserve and would remove capital gains tax on Bitcoin. Key elements of the bill: - Strategic Bitcoin reserve: federally held Bitcoin would be managed under Treasury reserve-style rules. - Tax change: taxpayers could use Bitcoin for federal tax payments without triggering capital gains tax. Status: the bills are in the legislative phase and have been referred to committee; they have not become law yet. Why traders may care: - A strategic Bitcoin reserve framework signals potential movement toward greater institutional acceptance and clearer government custodial handling. - The no capital gains tax component could be interpreted as a shift in U.S. crypto taxation, which typically boosts demand expectations and risk appetite. - However, because the measures are not enacted, the near-term market impact is likely to be sentiment-driven rather than driven by confirmed regulatory certainty. What to watch next: - Committee progress, hearings, amendments, and any official signals from key congressional bodies. - Market reaction to news flow around U.S. crypto taxation and government-held Bitcoin policy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has signalled rising inflation risks and hinted it could accelerate its rate hikes. Bloomberg Economics’ summary points to inflation pressures driven by a weak yen and high import costs. In June, the BOJ raised its policy rate to 1.0%, the highest since 1995. The latest messaging aligns with earlier concerns that inflation could overshoot the BOJ’s 2% target. For markets, the key takeaway is the BOJ rate hikes outlook. Faster hikes would likely support the yen versus the US dollar, which can pressure gold prices. Traders appear to be adjusting expectations for August gold targets, with some scenarios reducing the probability of higher gold prices. What to watch next is whether future BOJ meetings and statements turn more hawkish. Any further hawkish indicators could reinforce current pricing for BOJ rate hikes and strengthen FX-driven effects across commodities. Market attention may also shift to global macro data and central-bank guidance, including the US Federal Reserve, as those can jointly influence the yen and broader risk sentiment.

Oil prices rose as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz intensified. Iran is taking a firmer stance on reopening the chokepoint and is demanding U.S. concessions. Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been severely restricted, raising supply risk and boosting volatility. Brent crude was reported around $83.55 per barrel, while WTI was about $78.18. The article notes market pricing implies a low chance of a new crude all-time high by September 30, with a slightly higher probability by December 31. Traders will watch whether geopolitical signals from Iran and the U.S. move the situation toward resolution or further escalation. OPEC’s Secretary General and Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister are cited as key actors that could influence future supply strategy. Any U.S. concessions (or lack of them) could shift sentiment in crude “all-time high” prediction markets.

Japan’s current account surplus reached 17.43 trillion yen in H1, according to preliminary Ministry of Finance data. This is about $115 billion flowing into Japan on a net basis, nearly matching the 17.51 trillion yen surplus in fiscal H1 2025 (+14.1% YoY). Japan current account surplus remains supported mainly by overseas investment income, with “primary income” from dividends, interest, and royalties from foreign assets offsetting goods trade weakness. Energy imports continue to pressure the trade balance, but the broader current account position stays firm. The article links this to Japan’s long-standing role as the world’s largest net creditor, with record annual current account surpluses around 29–30 trillion yen in 2024–2025. The H1 17.43 trillion yen figure suggests Japan could be on pace for another similar outcome. For markets, a persistent Japan current account surplus can underpin demand for yen conversion, though short-term FX moves still depend heavily on interest-rate differentials and Bank of Japan policy. The surplus also supports Japan’s cross-border buying of government bonds, corporate debt, and equities—important for global capital allocation.

The July jobs report points to a softening labor market, with 23,000 jobs lost and unemployment edging up to 4.1%. This weak data makes a rapid interest-rate hike less likely, while the Fed remains on hold at 3.50%–3.75%. Futures pricing shifted accordingly: the probability of a September rate hike fell to below-even odds. For crypto traders, the key takeaway is that the Fed likely to hold rates steady after the July jobs report—and that the market’s expectations for a September hike have cooled. Near-term watch items: speeches from Jerome Powell, any FOMC minutes, and upcoming inflation data. If new releases continue to confirm slower labor dynamics, risk assets (including crypto) may find support. If inflation re-accelerates, rate expectations could reprice quickly, raising volatility across risk markets.

Japan’s Cabinet Office is urging the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to deliver “proper monetary policy” while coordinating with the government’s growth agenda. At a BOJ policy meeting, a Cabinet Office representative called for policy decisions that better support Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s economic objectives. A June 25 draft of Takaichi’s economic blueprint explicitly asks the BOJ to align its inflation-targeting approach with the government’s growth strategies. The wording is notably sharper than in earlier drafts. That language matters because Japanese law contains a built-in tension: Article 3 protects BOJ operational independence, while Article 4 requires coordination with the government. By early July, the government adjusted the phrasing to “appropriate monetary policy” aimed at stable price growth. The softening appears designed to reduce market anxiety about BOJ independence. In June, the BOJ raised its policy interest rate to 1%, the highest level in over 30 years. The BOJ is widely expected to hold steady at its upcoming meeting while assessing how the economy is absorbing the hike. Japan’s inflation remains near the BOJ’s 2% target, and Cabinet Office attendees have repeatedly referenced the need for “suitable monetary policy” that keeps stable price gains while supporting efforts to boost private demand. For traders watching macro and FX spillovers, the Bank of Japan monetary policy is increasingly framed as policy-relevant to the government growth plan—an issue with potential implications for yen volatility and broader risk sentiment.

Gold prices steadied near $4,345 per ounce after a sharp rise last week. The move followed weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data: nonfarm payrolls contracted and prior job gains were revised downward. Traders scaled back Fed rate hike expectations, supporting gold as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. The article also links gold’s pricing to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and the market’s reaction to U.S. labor indicators. What to watch next: upcoming Federal Reserve meetings and additional economic releases that could shift the Fed rate hike path. Any central-bank actions, particularly gold purchases, and further geopolitical developments may also move the metal’s trajectory. For investors, the key takeaway is that softer labor data is easing the Fed rate hike outlook, which can keep gold supported—at least until the next inflation or labor print challenges that view.

A Washington poll suggests prediction markets will face little new federal restriction through the end of 2026. Key finding: 57% of K Street respondents do not expect Congress to pass further laws to restrict or outlaw trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket before the 119th Congress concludes. Lobbying ‘status quo’ logic: Kalshi reported $990,000 in federal lobbying spend in the first half of 2026, with a run rate expected to exceed its full-year 2025 total. Polymarket also continued lobbying, though at a smaller scale. Together, the sector is working to prevent “moving the goalposts” while user bases grow. Bill momentum stalled: Several 2026 proposals targeted insider trading by government officials on prediction markets, including the bipartisan Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act. Other drafts aimed to limit CFTC-regulated platforms from listing contracts tied to sports outcomes and politically sensitive events. None progressed as standalone legislation. Congress did act in parallel: The Senate unanimously approved S.Res. 708 (April 30, 2026), barring senators, officers, and employees from participating in prediction markets. Trading relevance: The absence of new federal restrictions lowers near-term regulatory uncertainty for prediction markets, but state-level challenges and pressure from established gambling operators remain. The remaining 2026 bills could resurface in a future Congress if lawmakers revisit committee items.