A Feb. 16, 2025 chart by Joao Wedson (Alphractal) uses the Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (LTH NUPL) metric to assess when Bitcoin’s next major bull run may begin. The indicator measures average unrealized gains/losses for long-term holders — wallets historically associated with lower sell-side activity. The current LTH NUPL reading is 0.36, meaning long-term holders are, on average, in profit. Wedson’s chart color-codes profit phases (green) and loss phases (red). Historically, major Bitcoin bull cycles began after the LTH NUPL moved below zero — periods of red that coincide with late-stage capitulation, seller exhaustion, and coin transfer to stronger holders. Wedson argues that the deepest market reset (negative LTH NUPL) typically precedes major bull runs; since the metric remains positive, a final capitulation has likely not occurred and the definitive signal for the next bull market is still pending. For traders, the key takeaway is to watch LTH NUPL trends: a sustained shift below zero has historically marked cycle bottoms and optimal reallocation opportunities, while current positive readings suggest bull-phase upside may remain muted until a deeper reset happens. Keywords: Bitcoin, LTH NUPL, long-term holders, capitulation, bull run.
XRP has fallen about 29% over the past month but continues to attract strong market interest, ranking as the second most discussed crypto after Bitcoin according to Grayscale. Traders and advisors report increased client inquiries even as XRP trades near key support levels. Technically, XRP is struggling to hold $1.45; a sustained breakdown below $1.30 could push prices toward $1.11, while weekly closes above $1.40–$1.45 may enable a short-term rebound toward $1.90. On-chain data indicates gradual accumulation by large holders (‘whales’), suggesting risk-tolerant participants are buying the dip. Analysts warn of continued near-term volatility and advise that a decisive climb above major resistance is needed for a sustainable recovery. Key takeaways for traders: heightened attention may increase volatility and liquidity; watch daily/weekly closes around $1.40–$1.50 for signs of strength, and set risk limits if price falls below $1.30.
Canada’s February 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed headline inflation easing to 2.1% year‑over‑year and core measures moderating to about 2.4%, marking the third consecutive month inside the Bank of Canada’s 1–3% target range. RBC Capital Markets attributes the disinflation to global supply‑chain normalization, softer domestic demand, and stabilized commodity prices after 18 months of aggressive tightening that brought the overnight rate to 5.0%. RBC’s baseline projects gradual policy normalization beginning mid‑2025, with about 75 basis points of rate cuts through the year if inflation continues to ease. Markets reacted with a slight depreciation of the Canadian dollar and bond yields pricing in higher odds of near‑term easing. RBC highlights that policy decisions will remain data‑dependent, considering wage growth, employment, GDP, and international policy moves. Risks include premature easing that could rekindle inflation. Core keywords: Canadian CPI, Bank of Canada, inflation, interest rates, RBC analysis.
Neutral
Canadian CPIBank of CanadaInflationMonetary policyFX and bonds
Bitcoin slid back under $70,000 amid rising US market volatility and falling Treasury yields, raising the risk that 2026 year-to-date lows could be tested if bulls fail to reclaim the level. Key indicators: the CBOE VIX reached 22.50 — a threshold historically associated with BTC pullbacks — while the US 10-year yield fell to 4.02%, posting its steepest weekly decline in months and nearing its 200-day moving average. Crypto-specific gauges also signalled caution: the Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit 7 (extreme fear), and onchain measures show only brief periods with ~50% of BTC supply in profit during the sell-off. Stablecoin liquidity has slowed: CryptoQuant recorded an $11.4 billion rise in reserves through early November 2025 followed by an $8.4 billion decline by late December, with net exchange reserves down roughly $2 billion over the past month. Binance remains dominant in exchange stablecoin balances (about $47.5B combined USDT/USDC). Analysts interpret the rising VIX and falling yields as a “risk-off” macro backdrop that typically pressures risk assets like Bitcoin, implying constrained liquidity and limited bullish catalysts in the near term. This environment suggests elevated short-term downside risk for traders, while long-term implications depend on whether stablecoin liquidity and macro volatility normalize.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened lower as investor anxiety over artificial intelligence disruption and anticipation of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes weighed on sentiment. Sector-led weakness hit industrial and financial blue-chips exposed to potential AI-driven automation, while the Nasdaq showed relative strength from pure-play AI infrastructure, semiconductors and cloud firms. Analysts cite rising capital expenditure needs, regulatory uncertainty and a “productivity paradox” (short-term costs vs. long-term gains) as drivers of near-term volatility. Economists note the market is repricing companies by differentiating AI suppliers from incumbents at risk. Traders are also focused on the upcoming FOMC minutes for clues on inflation, labor markets and quantitative tightening; a higher-for-longer rates stance would raise the cost of capital for companies needing AI investment. Portfolio effects include increased sector rotation, factor-based strategies and pressure on pension funds tied to Dow components. Key takeaways for traders: expect continued sectoral dispersion, heightened sensitivity to Fed communications, and potential trading opportunities in AI supply chains versus vulnerable legacy firms.
Neutral
AI disruptionDow JonesFOMC minutessector rotationmarket volatility
Hayden Davis, previously linked to the LIBRA and YZY token incidents, has resumed on‑chain trading after a period of wallet dormancy and is now showing roughly $3 million in losses. Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps found renewed activity in wallets tied to Davis, with large transfers into a deposit address (CPGZ1i) spawning six active wallets. Over the past 30 days Davis traded trending Solana meme tokens — including PUMP, TROVE, PENGUIN, KABUTO, LOUD and BAGWORK — and suffered estimated losses of about $2.5M on PUMP, $100K on PENGUIN, $29K on KABUTO plus smaller losses on other tokens. This contrasts with Bubblemaps’ August 2025 report tying Davis to coordinated sniping and quick cash‑outs that produced millions from YZY and LIBRA launches. Since then Davis’s funds evolved: a judge unfroze $57M of his assets and he received a MET airdrop, but the latest on‑chain data shows routine, largely unprofitable meme‑coin trading on Solana. Key points for traders: renewed insider‑linked activity can move low‑liquidity meme tokens, large wallet clusters remain active, and prior profitable actors can rapidly shift to high‑risk retail strategies that amplify volatility in small caps.
Asset manager T. Rowe Price filed an amended Form S-1 with the SEC proposing an Active Crypto ETF and named 15 eligible cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Litecoin (LTC) and Shiba Inu (SHIB). The filing establishes a rules-based eligibility framework rather than pre-allocating capital. To qualify for the fund’s investable universe, an asset must be classified as a commodity and meet at least one of three conditions: trade on a market that is a member of the Intermarket Surveillance Group (ISG); underlie a CFTC-regulated futures contract with at least six months’ trading history; or represent at least 40% of the net asset value of an existing ETF. The framework aims to anchor institutional crypto exposure within established regulatory and surveillance infrastructures. XRP’s inclusion reflects clarified legal standing following Ripple’s litigation with the SEC. Litecoin’s selection reflects deep exchange history and liquidity. Shiba Inu’s presence signals that high liquidity and market access can qualify meme tokens for institutional consideration despite retail origins. The filing does not guarantee that any listed asset will receive allocation; it defines the operating boundaries for fund managers and emphasizes market integrity, surveillance and regulatory conformity.
Gemini’s parent company Space Station announced the immediate departures of three senior executives — Operations Director Marshall Beard (also resigned from the board), Finance Director Dan Chen and Legal Director Tyler Meade — with changes effective Feb. 17, 2026. Co-founder Cameron Winklevoss will absorb additional board and revenue-generation duties; no permanent COO has been named. Interim appointments include Danijela Stojanovic as interim CFO (with transition compensation) and Kate Freedman as interim general counsel. The leadership exits follow Space Station’s September IPO that raised $425m and come amid a strategic retreat: exits from the UK, EU and Australia, a roughly 25% workforce reduction, and a narrowed focus on the US market. Management says the company will prioritize AI-driven efficiency, a BTC-futures and prediction-market product, credit-card revenue growth and pursuing 401(k) crypto integrations. Space Station projects 2025 net revenue of $165–175m (up from $141m in 2024). The announcements coincided with a ~13–15% share price drop from IPO highs. The reports link the moves to cost- and risk-reduction after market pressures — including sector weakness among miners and BTC holders — and an earlier SEC suit dismissal in January. For traders: expect short-term stock volatility and execution risk as management concentrates operations in the US; the restructuring reduces international exposure but increases concentration risk tied to U.S. regulatory and market conditions.
Nasdaq Composite opened lower and traded at 22,368.57 (down 0.79%) on Tuesday, extending a four-week pullback as technology and AI-related stocks weaken. Nasdaq futures had signalled a weaker open. The S&P 500 and Dow showed mixed moves, with the S&P down about 0.4% and the Dow up ~0.3%, suggesting sector rotation from high-growth tech to more defensive names. Concerns center on returns from large corporate AI investments, paused buybacks, equity issuance and debt raises to fund projects, and scrutiny of software business models amid increased AI competition. The Nasdaq has recorded its longest losing streak since 2022; the S&P has fallen in four of five weeks. Earnings this week from Constellation Energy, Medtronic, Palo Alto Networks and Walmart may influence sentiment. Key economic catalysts include the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes due Wednesday and Friday’s GDP, Core PCE and PMI releases. Traders will watch the FOMC minutes for clues on rate outlook and potential cuts this year, which could trigger a market rally or further downside.
USD/CHF climbed to about 0.9250 during European trading — a roughly 0.8% intraday gain and the strongest single-day rise for the pair since early February. Technicals show a break above the 20-day moving average and RSI moving above 50, with immediate resistance at 0.9280 and a potential target near 0.9350. Volume was above average, indicating institutional participation. Fundamentals driving dollar strength include a more patient Fed on rate cuts (market pricing ~75 bps easing for 2025), stronger-than-expected US jobs (275,000 payrolls in February), and higher US 10-year yields above 4.2%. By contrast, the Swiss Franc faces a less hawkish outlook: SNB notes the franc’s “high valuation,” Swiss inflation is ~1.2% YoY, and mixed domestic data leave room for easier policy. Global factors — ECB and BoJ divergence, moderate volatility (VIX ~15.5), falling gold and steady oil — further support the dollar. Institutional flows (COT) show hedge funds adding net long dollar positions and demand rising for USD/CHF calls above 0.9300. Traders should monitor upcoming US inflation prints and SNB communications for catalysts; technically, a decisive break above 0.9280 could open 0.9350, while 0.9150 is key support.
Neutral
USD/CHFForexUS Dollar StrengthSwiss FrancMonetary Policy
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig says prediction markets are becoming embedded in pop culture and that their regulatory landscape in the US is liberalizing, but unresolved issues remain — notably ambiguous outcomes and insider trading risks. Selig emphasised the CFTC’s pivotal role in shaping emerging markets including prediction markets and crypto, noting exchanges act as self‑regulatory organisations under CFTC rule books. He argued the definition of "commodity" is broad, giving the agency authority to police insider trading in commodities markets similar to the SEC’s powers in securities. Selig warned some event‑based contracts (eg, Super Bowl halftime props) may look like prop bets rather than true financial instruments, raising manipulation and integrity concerns. He contrasted regulated derivatives — which provide liquidity, margining and formal controls across a vast notional swaps market — with informal betting against the house. Blockchain and tokenisation, he said, will change settlement and exchange operations; the economic lines between futures and prediction markets are narrowing. Selig called for coordinated, notice‑and‑comment rulemaking between the CFTC and SEC to avoid incompatible standards as traditional and decentralized finance converge. He highlighted staffing needs at the CFTC, the importance of institutional access (margin and brokers), and backing for a "clarity act" style framework to keep markets onshore. Overall, Selig urged clearer, harmonised regulation to let prediction markets and crypto flourish while protecting market integrity and investors.
Chainalysis reports crypto inflows to wallets linked to human-trafficking networks rose ~85% in 2025 versus 2024, amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars. The firm says criminals favor crypto for speed, cross-border reach and availability in underbanked regions, but notes blockchain transparency enables tracing by law enforcement and analytics firms. The report underscores that crypto’s pseudonymity—not anonymity—facilitates both misuse and improved investigative visibility. Market context: overall crypto market cap fell to $2.28T (-2.08% 24h) with Bitcoin near $67K after failing to reclaim $70K, driven by “higher for longer” interest-rate expectations and reduced liquidity appetite. Additional industry items: a crypto PAC is spending $1.5M to oppose Texas Rep. Al Green in primaries; a new stablecoin USDCBL is slated to support Aptos-based derivatives; Fiserv launched INDX for 24/7 dollar rails for crypto firms; CFTC added 20 crypto leaders to its Innovation Advisory Committee. For traders: expect heightened compliance scrutiny, potential exchange/fiat on-ramp monitoring, and episodic volatility tied to macro liquidity shifts. Key SEO keywords: crypto criminal inflows, Chainalysis, human trafficking, Bitcoin price, market liquidity, stablecoin USDCBL.
Nakamoto (NASDAQ: NAKA) will acquire BTC Inc and UTXO Management GP in an all‑stock transaction valued at about $107.3 million based on a $1.12 per‑share call‑option price. Holders of BTC Inc and UTXO will receive 363,589,816 Nakamoto shares on a fully diluted basis. The deal folds Bitcoin media and events (including Bitcoin Magazine and The Bitcoin Conference) and advisory/asset‑management services tied to 210k Capital into a single Nasdaq‑listed firm. Nakamoto, which repositioned from healthcare to a Bitcoin treasury model and holds about 5,398 BTC, plans to treat BTC Inc and UTXO as recurring cash‑flow businesses to support further BTC accumulation and future acquisitions. The transaction was enabled by a previously disclosed Marketing Services Agreement that granted Nakamoto acquisition rights. Market reaction was negative: Nakamoto trades near $0.30 per share, so the fixed $1.12 reference price implies significant dilution and has pressured the stock. Traders should note heightened share dilution risk, potential changes to Nakamoto’s capital allocation and liquidity, and the strategic shift toward combining media/research/events with a bitcoin‑treasury strategy — all factors that may weigh on the company’s stock and influence BTC accumulation plans.
BitMine Immersion Technologies increased its Ethereum treasury by about 45,759 ETH (~$91M) last week, bringing its holdings to roughly 4.37 million ETH (valued near $8.7–$8.8B). The publicly traded firm, chaired by Tom Lee, remains deeply underwater after ETH fell roughly 60% from its 2025 peak; estimated unrealized losses are around $7.5–$7.9B. BitMine also holds 193 BTC and ~$670M cash and has recent investments tied to Worldcoin-related projects and Beast Industries. Tom Lee framed the pullback as a buying opportunity and outlined three long-term adoption drivers for Ethereum—Wall Street tokenization and privacy, AI/AI-agent payments and verification on-chain, and creator adoption of proof-of-human standards on layer‑2s—calling 2026 a potential turning point. Market sentiment is weak: ETH price fell from a 2025 peak (~$4,946) to lows near $1,824 before partially rebounding; prediction markets show elevated odds of further near-term downside. Trading takeaways: (1) BitMine’s large, public treasury accumulation can supply steady buy demand and influence market depth; (2) the company’s substantial unrealized loss highlights downside risk if prices remain depressed; (3) traders should monitor on‑chain activity, tokenization flows, AI-related integrations, and layer‑2 adoption as potential catalysts for renewed ETH demand. Keywords: BitMine, Ethereum, ETH treasury, Tom Lee, unrealized losses, treasury accumulation, tokenization, AI, layer‑2.
Neutral
BitMineEthereumTreasury AccumulationTom LeeTokenization & AI
85% of crypto tokens launched in 2025 are trading below their launch price, according to analyst Edgy of The DeFi Edge. The trend holds even for many VC-backed projects, with several trading deep in the red. Crypto venture capital fundraising has collapsed since its 2022 peak — Q2 2022 saw nearly $17 billion raised and 80+ new funds, while recent quarters show fundraising at just 12% of that peak. Although $8.5 billion was deployed last quarter (up 84% QoQ), The DeFi Edge and Galaxy Research note much of that comes from capital raised in 2022 rather than fresh LP commitments. New fund formation is at a five-year low and VC returns have been falling since 2022. The article argues the traditional model—landing a top VC to drive token demand and offload to retail—is breaking down. As VC influence fades, tokens from projects with real users, revenue, fairer launch models and community-driven ecosystems are gaining attention. Key takeaways for traders: high proportion of 2025 token launches are underwater, VC backing is a weaker signal than before, and capital deployment figures may overstate current investor appetite because much capital is recycled from earlier vintages.
An Arch Capital report and comments from figures like Ray Dalio and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio frame a broader geopolitical realignment that could boost Bitcoin’s strategic appeal. Rising deficits, constrained central-bank policy tools and the use of currency systems as geopolitical levers are prompting debate over the long-term durability of the U.S. dollar-based order. Arch argues Bitcoin’s core features — borderless transferability, fixed supply enforced by code, peer-to-peer settlement, and political neutrality — align with a likely multipolar monetary environment. The report notes gold remains important (with central-bank buying by nations such as China and Poland) but has practical limits in a digital economy compared with Bitcoin’s speed and programmability. While Arch acknowledges Bitcoin’s short-term price volatility driven by regulation and sentiment, it distinguishes that from structural monetary risk supporting demand for non-sovereign stores of value. Traders should note the narrative shift: institutional and sovereign considerations may increasingly influence Bitcoin’s role as a reserve-like asset, even as price swings persist.
Bullish
BitcoinMonetary PolicyGeopoliticsGold vs BitcoinMarket Structure
Japan has become the largest local-currency stablecoin market in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, driven primarily by the rise of yen-pegged JPYC. On-chain supply data shows APAC local stablecoin supply rebounded from about $40 million in mid-2025 to roughly $58–60 million by early 2026; JPYC alone accounts for about $26.4 million, nearly half of the regional total. JPYC’s growth followed its launch in October 2025 and expanded steadily through late 2025. Singapore’s XSGD, previously the regional leader with supply near $35–40 million in early 2025, has stabilized around $18 million after a mid-year decline. Other local tokens—Indonesia’s IDRT and smaller tokens pegged to the Australian dollar, Philippine peso and New Zealand dollar—remain marginal and have not meaningfully recovered. The shift underscores regional rebalancing rather than a challenge to dollar-backed stablecoins, which still dominate global supply. For traders, the development signals concentrated local demand for yen-linked stablecoins, potential increased on-chain liquidity and payment use cases in Japan, and a more fragmented APAC local stablecoin landscape.
Seventeen US-based AI startups closed funding rounds of $100 million or more during January–February 2026, continuing the heavy investor interest seen in 2025. Major disclosed deals include Anthropic’s $30 billion Series G (valuation $380 billion), xAI’s $20 billion Series E, ElevenLabs’ $500 million Series D (valuation $11 billion), Runway’s $315 million Series E (valuation $5.3 billion), Baseten’s $300 million infrastructure round (valuation $5 billion) and Fundamental’s $255 million (valuation $1.4 billion). Funding was concentrated in AI infrastructure, enterprise/developer tools, generative media, robotics and healthcare AI. Trends noted: more nine‑figure rounds at earlier stages (seed/Series A), increased strategic corporate participation (Nvidia, Salesforce Ventures and other cloud/compute players), and geographic concentration in Silicon Valley with specialised pockets in the Northeast. The surge is lifting valuations and expanding runway for compute‑heavy R&D but raises sustainability and exit-risk questions if product deployments or revenue lag. For crypto traders, the flow signals continued institutional confidence in AI infrastructure and cloud-accelerated stacks — sectors that can support equities and compute/cloud‑adjacent crypto projects and tokens tied to decentralized compute, storage, or AI platforms. Short‑term effects may include increased M&A activity and upbeat risk sentiment for related assets; longer term, elevated valuation multiples and talent competition could create downside risk if monetization stalls. (Main keyword: AI funding; secondary keywords: AI startups funding, AI infrastructure funding.)
Bullish
AI fundingAI infrastructureVenture capitalEnterprise AICrypto compute tokens
Bitcoin fell to about $66,600 after the U.S. market open as stock futures dropped and traders priced in heightened volatility amid geopolitical uncertainty. Diplomatic talks between Iran and the U.S. are reportedly deadlocked: Tehran wants talks limited to its nuclear program and seeks sanctions relief including access to frozen oil funds, while Washington insists on addressing both nuclear and missile issues and demands a halt to uranium enrichment. Escalating rhetoric from Iran’s Supreme Leader and hardline positions on both sides leave a narrow path to a deal, increasing downside risk for risk assets.
Separately, Eric Trump highlighted that American Bitcoin (ABTC) has acquired over 6,000 BTC in under six months since its Nasdaq listing, making it one of the fastest-growing public Bitcoin reserves. His comment comes amid scrutiny of a WLFI share sale linked to UAE investors and debate over potential conflicts tied to recent U.S. export policy changes. The combination of geopolitical uncertainty and high-profile institutional Bitcoin accumulation could amplify short-term volatility: a diplomatic breakthrough might fuel a sharp crypto rally, while deteriorating relations or new sanctions would likely pressure markets.
Key points for traders: BTC ~ $66.6k post‑open; ABTC >6,000 BTC accumulated in <6 months; Iran‑US negotiations stalled with material risks to market sentiment. Monitor headline risk (talk outcomes, sanctions), institutional reserve disclosures (ABTC filings), and macro risk-on/risk-off signals (equities, bond yields, USD).
On-chain data shows a 72% drop in Bitcoin whale transactions over 14 days, falling from 5,767 to 1,637 transfers of $1M+ according to analyst Ali Martinez. Major analytics firms (Glassnode, CryptoQuant) reportedly corroborate lower transaction counts and reduced aggregate volumes among large holders. Exchange inflows from whale addresses remain subdued, suggesting neither active selling nor major accumulation but rather hibernation—movement to cold storage or inactivity. The decline coincides with prolonged “Extreme Fear” readings on the Crypto Fear & Greed Index and macro headwinds (inflation concerns, hawkish central banks) plus regulatory scrutiny and variable ETF flows. Short-term implications include thinner liquidity and potentially lower volatility or range-bound price action; a sudden large trade could, however, trigger outsized moves. Historically, similar whale inactivity has preceded both prolonged consolidation and subsequent accumulation phases (post-2022 lull ahead of 2023 rally). Traders should watch daily large-transaction counts ($1M+), direction of flows (to private wallets vs. to exchanges), miner outflows, network growth and realized price to gauge whether whales resume activity and signal a shift in market cycle.
Circle’s treasury executed an on-chain burn of 201 million USD Coin (USDC) in February 2025, verified via Whale Alert and Etherscan. The operation likely reflects net fiat redemptions and an equivalent reduction in Circle’s reserves, removing roughly 0.5% of USDC’s circulating supply. This event signals active supply management rather than a peg failure: historical burns of comparable size have not disrupted USDC’s dollar parity because mint/burn mechanics and arbitrage restore equilibrium. Short-term trading implications may include marginal USDC liquidity tightening and slightly higher borrowing costs on DeFi lending markets (eg, Aave, Compound) if the contraction persists. Over the longer term, transparent, on-chain burns and clear reserve practices can reinforce confidence in redeemability and regulatory compliance, supporting institutional adoption. Traders should monitor subsequent mint/burn activity, stablecoin flows, and lending rates for signs of sustained liquidity change. Keywords: USDC burn, Circle treasury, stablecoin supply, stablecoin redeemability, DeFi liquidity.
Statistics Canada reported January 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.2% year‑over‑year, down from 3.4% in December but still above the Bank of Canada’s 2% target. Core inflation (CPI‑trim and CPI‑median) averaged 3.4%, and three‑month annualized inflation increased to 3.8%, signalling persistent underlying pressures. Shelter was the main driver — housing costs rose 6.2% y/y, contributing about 1.8 percentage points to headline inflation; mortgage interest costs surged 28.3% y/y and rents climbed 7.8% (Vancouver 9.2%, Toronto 8.7%). Food inflation eased to 4.8% and energy fell 1.2% (gasoline down 3.4%), while services inflation remained elevated at 4.1%. Regional variation persisted, with Atlantic provinces seeing higher inflation than the West.
Markets reacted quickly: government bond yields rose and the Canadian dollar strengthened as traders moved expected Bank of Canada rate cuts farther out — from bets on April easing to a consensus for mid‑2025 or later. Economists and former BoC officials warned that sticky services and shelter inflation, together with a tight labour market, make early cuts unlikely. The report implies a longer period of restrictive policy and higher-for-longer rates.
Implications for crypto traders: this CPI print increases sensitivity across fixed income, FX and risk assets including crypto. Higher yields and a firmer CAD historically pressure risk-on assets. Expect heightened volatility around Bank of Canada communications (notably the March 5 policy date) and reduced likelihood of early rate cuts, which can weigh on growth-sensitive crypto positions. Traders should monitor yields, BoC guidance, CAD strength, and US CPI/ Fed signals for cross-market spillovers into BTC, ETH and other risk assets.
Bearish
Canada CPIInflationBank of CanadaShelter CostsMarket Impact
The crypto market weakened on Feb. 17 as traders digested dovish comments from Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, who said several interest-rate cuts could be appropriate in 2026 if inflation continues to fall toward the 2% target. Bitcoin traded near $67k and Ethereum near $1,980 while total crypto market cap slipped 0.15% to about $2.34 trillion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained in “extreme fear” (13) and the Altcoin Season Index was 31. Recent US CPI data showed headline inflation eased to 2.4% in January (from 2.7%), with core CPI steady at 2.5%, supporting the view of lower rates ahead. Market expectations differ: the Fed’s dot plot implies one cut this year, while some traders (Polymarket) price in three cuts. Hedge funds are reducing US dollar exposure per a Bank of America survey, which can be supportive for dollar-denominated crypto prices. Traders now await the Fed’s minutes due Wednesday for clearer guidance. Primary takeaways for traders: potential easing is a bullish macro input for crypto prices, but immediate market sentiment remains fragile (extreme fear), so volatility around Fed minutes and economic data is likely. Key keywords: Fed rate cuts, inflation, Bitcoin, Ethereum, crypto market, dollar weakness.
Tom Lee, BitMine’s chairman, expects Ethereum (ETH) to complete a historical V-shaped recovery from the current drawdown, a pattern he says has occurred in eight major ETH declines since 2018. Lee cited Ethereum’s strong fundamentals — largest smart-contract network, institutional adoption (e.g., JPMorgan use cases), falling exchange supply, record staking queues and its role as the largest stablecoin processor — as demand drivers that should support a rebound. BitMine (BMNR) has been accumulating ETH, now holding over 4.3 million tokens worth roughly $8.4 billion and adding ~157,000 coins in the past 30 days while generating yield via staking and investing cash balances. The company also plans startup investments, including a $200m stake in Beast Industries.
Technically, BMNR stock formed a large falling-wedge on the daily chart and trades near key support at $20. The RSI has risen from ~25 to 37, suggesting momentum is improving. Analysts in the article argue a bullish breakout could send BitMine toward the $34 resistance (about 72% above current levels) if Ethereum’s bearish phase ends and the wedge resolves upward. Key keywords: Ethereum, ETH, BitMine, BMNR, falling wedge, staking, exchange supply, V-shaped recovery.
BlackRock and Mastercard — alongside asset manager Franklin Templeton — are evaluating the XRP Ledger (XRPL) for enterprise use in cross‑border settlement, tokenization of real‑world assets (RWAs) and fast, low‑cost on‑chain settlement. XRPL Commons’ Odelia Torteman highlighted XRPL features attractive to institutions: a native decentralized exchange (DEX), built‑in automated market maker (AMM), trust lines, Token Escrow and Permissioned Domains for compliant asset issuance, plus compliance/KYC tooling. Recent pilot activity and integrations cited include Ripple’s tokenization partnerships (Franklin Templeton, DBS), swaps enabling fund holders to convert shares into RLUSD via Securitize and Ripple, and a Mastercard–Gemini–Ripple pilot to settle card payments on XRPL using regulated stablecoins; Ripple’s EMI licence in Luxembourg was noted as lowering regulatory friction. For traders, these developments could raise demand for XRP if pilots scale to production because on‑chain settlement reduces nostro/vostro pre‑funding and positions XRP as a bridge currency. Current market context: XRP recently hit a 15‑month low and shows elevated volatility; institutional pilots are a medium‑ to long‑term bullish catalyst only if successful and followed by broader tokenization adoption. Key SEO keywords: XRP Ledger, XRPL, XRP, tokenization, cross‑border payments.
Solana (SOL) trades near $85 after a modest daily gain as analysts debate whether the recent pullback is a short pause or deeper reset. Technical observers label the decline as an Elliott wave (2) pullback, noting firm support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement (~$83.60) and deeper cushions at the 61.8% (~$81.88) and 78.6% (~$79.50). Bulls must clear the 38.2% retracement at $85.35 and reclaim the prior wave (1) high between $89–$90 to confirm renewed upside toward $97 and $100.89. Conversely, failure to hold $83 could extend consolidation, while defending $67–$70 is critical to preserve higher-timeframe structure. Weekly charts show SOL still trading below the former $120 support, which now acts as resistance; macro pressure remains until that ceiling breaks. Market cap stays above $48 billion and network participation is steady. Analysts argue that a clean bounce from $67–$70 could form a durable accumulation base, while a recovery above $100 would likely improve sentiment and attract sidelined capital. Key keywords: Solana price, SOL price prediction, Fibonacci support, $90 resistance, $67–$70 support.
Meme coin Pippin (PIPPIN) fell about 20% on February 17, trading near $0.59 and pushing its market capitalization below $600 million. The drop followed weeks of sharp gains and has put PIPPIN at risk of exiting the top 100 by market cap. Several crypto commentators on X (formerly Twitter) suggested the rally was driven by coordinated insider activity — a so‑called "CEX cabal" — and compared the situation to last year’s Mantra (OM) spike-and-crash. Some analysts forecast a dramatic further decline, with price targets as low as $0.10. Technical indicators are mixed: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits just above the oversold threshold, implying a possible short-term bounce but not ruling out deeper losses. Traders are advised to view PIPPIN as high-risk; sentiment and on-chain/centralized-exchange flows will be key in determining whether this is a corrective pullback or the start of a large-scale unwind.
Machi (wallet @machibigbrother) sold portions of his Ethereum holdings and small tokens to raise margin capital, then opened large leveraged long positions on Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and HYPE via Hyperliquid. On-chain trackers show the wallet currently holds about 6,200 ETH (~$13.34M), 25 BTC (~$1.72M) and 55,000 HYPE (~$1.7M). Recent activity followed a partial liquidation that pushed cumulative losses above $27.5 million over 20 days; the account balance fell to roughly $92K after depositing and losing some $3.19M USDC on Hyperliquid. An open leveraged ETH position of 1,689.6 ETH (~$3.28M) shows a liquidation price near $1,929.08 per ETH. There is no public evidence of hedged shorts — positions appear directionally long. Traders are watching Ethereum’s nearby liquidation threshold and the potential for forced liquidations to amplify short-term volatility. Key points: raised margin by selling ETH, large leveraged longs on BTC/ETH/HYPE, total reported drawdown > $27.5M, ETH liquidation price ~$1,929, directional (unhedged) exposure on Hyperliquid.
AAVE has stabilized around a key $90 support level after an 86% decline from prior highs. The article highlights AAVE’s prolonged downtrend and notes that the $90 area now acts as a major technical support and potential accumulation zone for traders. Analysts and chart watchers point to risk/reward that could set up a multi-bagger if on-chain fundamentals or broader market conditions improve — hence the notion of a “10x setup.” The piece emphasizes volatility risks, previous resistance levels, and that a sustained break below $90 would reinforce further downside, while a reclaim and hold above nearby resistance levels would be needed to confirm a bullish reversal. Relevant trading considerations include tight stop management, position sizing given high drawdowns, and watching macro crypto sentiment and DeFi-specific metrics for confirmation.