Mutuum Finance (MUTM), a decentralized lending protocol, has made notable presale progress and is preparing a coordinated testnet and token launch. The presale has raised about $19.45 million from a fixed 4 billion MUTM supply; the current phase price is $0.035 and early-phase allocations are nearly fully sold (current phase ~98% sold, 825M tokens sold across presale stages). Over 18,600 holders have joined and card payments with no purchase limits were recently enabled to broaden access. The project implements two lending models: Peer-to-Contract (P2C) for liquid, well-known assets (initial launch assets ETH and USDT) that mint mtTokens for depositors, and Peer-to-Peer (P2P) for higher-volatility tokens allowing direct lender–borrower terms. Features include variable and stable-rate options, a Stability Factor for overcollateralization, automated liquidations and a liquidator bot. Security checks reported include a CertiK token scan and an independent Halborn Security audit (reported complete in the later update). V1 is scheduled for Sepolia testnet in Q4 2025 with coordinated token listing and platform launch planned to provide immediate utility. Analysts cite tight early allocations and whale interest as scarcity drivers; some bullish scenarios project significant upside (conditional on execution and adoption). For traders, key takeaways are rapid presale uptake, limited remaining supply at early pricing, planned testnet timeline that may influence listing and liquidity, and mandatory overcollateralization which affects use-case risk. This is a sponsored press release and not investment advice — perform your own due diligence.
JPMorgan Chase is exploring offering cryptocurrency trading services to institutional clients, evaluating both spot and derivatives execution that would leverage the bank’s balance sheet and trading technology. The initiative, reported first by Bloomberg and later expanded by CoinDesk, is in early development within the markets division and is framed as a response to rising client demand and evolving U.S. regulatory clarity around digital assets. Analysts say JPMorgan’s entry could expand institutional distribution channels, lend further legitimacy to crypto, and drive incremental order flow to established crypto firms — market participants named include Coinbase (COIN), Bullish and Galaxy Digital. No formal product launch, timeline, specific trading volumes or final product scope have been disclosed. Traders should watch for announcements on permitted products (spot vs derivatives), custody and prime-brokerage arrangements, and possible balance-sheet facilitation, as these factors will determine how much institutional flow JPMorgan redirects into existing crypto venues and custodians.
Hong Kong’s Insurance Authority has published draft rules that would require licensed insurers to hold capital equal to 100% of the value of any directly held cryptocurrencies, marking the first explicit insurer crypto framework in Asia. Stablecoins are treated separately: for Hong Kong-regulated stablecoins risk charges would be tied to the underlying fiat and aligned with the territory’s forthcoming stablecoin licensing regime expected in early 2025. The proposals, announced in a December 4 presentation and subject to public consultation from February to April 2026, also extend capital incentives for investments in Hong Kong and mainland China infrastructure projects. The draft opens insurers to crypto-related infrastructure investments while emphasising operational safeguards — custody, accounting and cybersecurity — and expects larger, well-capitalised insurers to lead allocations. Hong Kong’s insurance sector wrote roughly HK$635 billion (≈US$82bn) in gross premiums in 2024 across 158 licensed insurers, so even small allocations could supply meaningful institutional liquidity to digital-asset markets. The framework contrasts with other Asian regimes: South Korea still restricts insurer holdings, Singapore focuses on retail controls, and Japan may reconsider classifications in 2026. Public consultation will precede legislation submission. Key SEO keywords: Hong Kong regulation, insurance capital rules, crypto risk charge, stablecoin licensing, institutional liquidity.
Neutral
Hong Kong regulationInsurance capital rulesCrypto risk chargeStablecoin licensingInstitutional liquidity
The Philippines has begun enforcing stricter crypto regulations by ordering internet service providers to block access to around 50 online trading platforms identified as operating without local licenses. Reported blocked services include Coinbase and Gemini; regulators previously targeted Binance and issued ISP blocks in 2024. The National Telecommunications Commission (NTC) said its directive followed requests from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), citing Section 902‑N of the Non‑Banking Financial Institutions Regulation Manual (amended by BSP Circular No. 1206). The move signals a shift from informal tolerance to active licensing enforcement: local licensing is now a de facto gateway to serve Philippine users. Regulators say the blocks aim to protect consumers from risks posed by unregistered virtual asset service providers. The SEC has also publicly named other unlicensed platforms such as OKX, Bybit and KuCoin. Meanwhile, compliant local firms and regulated blockchain initiatives continue to expand services — for example, PDAX’s payroll stablecoin work and the government’s Integrity Chain for public contracts — suggesting onshore, licensed venues will capture more trading volume. Traders should monitor liquidity and spreads for pairs linked to affected exchanges, potential price dislocations on local venues, increased onshore flow to regulated exchanges, and further regulatory announcements that may list additional platforms or clarify re‑licensing paths.
Ghana’s parliament has passed the Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASP) Act, formally legalizing cryptocurrency trading and creating a licensing and oversight framework for exchanges, wallet providers and other crypto service firms. Regulation splits responsibilities between the Bank of Ghana and the Securities and Exchange Commission, which will require VASPs to register or obtain licenses and meet reporting, consumer‑protection, AML/CTF and risk‑control standards. The Act’s effective date will be announced after regulators publish operational directives. Bank of Ghana Governor Johnson Asiama said oversight should increase accountability, lower costs for financial institutions, improve customer experience and support SMEs, aligning Ghana with AfCFTA competitiveness goals. The government plans to explore asset‑backed digital settlement tools, including potential gold‑backed stablecoins backed by Ghana’s reserves, targeted for study in 2026. Market context: about 3 million Ghanaians (≈17% of adults) used digital assets and roughly $3 billion flowed in crypto transactions from June 2023–June 2024. The move positions Ghana alongside other African markets pursuing regulated participation rather than bans (Nigeria remains high‑volume despite restrictions; South Africa has clear institutional rules; Egypt maintains tight limits). Traders should note new licensing costs, compliance requirements and potential product innovation (asset‑backed stablecoins) as key drivers for on‑chain flows, exchange listings and institutional engagement in Ghana.
Neutral
GhanaCryptoVASPcrypto regulationgold-backed stablecoinBank of Ghana
Coinbase has acquired prediction-markets start-up The Clearing Company, led by Toni Gemayel, as part of its 2025 acquisition spree and push to build an “Everything Exchange.” Terms were not disclosed; the deal is expected to close in January 2026. The acquisition follows Coinbase’s limited launch of prediction markets to users and complements other 2025 moves — including purchases such as Deribit and Echo, the launch of Coinbase Tokenize, expanded Coinbase Business access, custom stablecoin plans and an x402 payments standard. Coinbase says Gemayel and her team will help scale regulated prediction-market products and integrate event contracts into the main trading interface alongside crypto and derivatives. Analysts cited in reports (Benchmark, J.P. Morgan) expect prediction markets to raise user engagement and add a high-frequency product that diversifies revenue beyond spot crypto trading. Traders should note the strategic aim: broaden product mix (stocks, derivatives, prediction markets), increase on-platform activity, and reduce reliance on pure crypto spot volumes. COIN closed at $247.90 on the announcement day. Primary keywords: Coinbase, prediction markets, The Clearing Company; Secondary keywords: Everything Exchange, Deribit, Coinbase Tokenize, event-based trading.
Binance co-founder and CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) has called for industry-wide adoption of shared blacklists and wallet-level defenses after a December incident in which a single user lost nearly $50 million in USDT to an "address poisoning" phishing attack. CZ urged wallet vendors, exchanges and other platforms to implement automated on-chain checks that detect and block known malicious receiving addresses, share real-time blacklists, filter out tiny "dust" or poison transactions from UI copy-paste flows, and warn or block transfers to suspicious addresses. Binance already uses internal address-flagging and visual-similarity warnings and its security team’s algorithm has identified roughly 15 million poisoning addresses. Independent trackers reported thousands of phishing victims and millions in losses (Scam Sniffer recorded 6,344 victims in November with over $7.7 million lost), and analysts expect fallout to rise after the high-profile theft. Experts say blockchain transparency and wallet UI filters make blacklist systems technically feasible, but CZ argued isolated protections are insufficient and called for coordinated security standards and intelligence sharing to limit user error-driven losses, restore trust, and reduce regulatory scrutiny.
The Bank of Russia published a draft crypto framework on 24 December 2025 that formalises a controlled legal route for cryptocurrency trading and tokenisation. Key measures: non‑qualified (retail) investors may buy up to 300,000 RUB (~USD 3,800) per year on licensed platforms after passing a mandatory risk/knowledge test; qualified investors can trade without volume limits after a knowledge assessment. Privacy coins will be banned to ensure traceability. Residents may transfer crypto bought abroad into domestic compliant platforms subject to tax reporting. Existing licensed financial institutions (exchanges, brokers, asset managers, major banks and the national payment system) can provide trading, custody and settlement, creating a closed-loop domestic ecosystem; specialised crypto depositories will face new rules. The proposal expands the Digital Financial Asset (DFA) framework to support tokenised fundraising and potentially state-backed tokens aimed at cross‑border use to mitigate sanctions. The government intends to finalise rules by 1 July 2026 with compliance required by 1 July 2027; non‑compliance could trigger severe penalties, including criminal liability for brokers. Motivations include stemming capital flight, securing tax revenue, and building sanctioned-resistant payment rails. For traders: expect greater onshore liquidity and faster institutional product development, clearer custody and settlement paths, and more transparent on‑chain flows concentrated among qualified investors and institutions; retail secondary flows will be constrained by testing and the 300,000 RUB cap. Geopolitical and sanction risks remain material and could affect cross‑border volumes, listings (privacy coins delisted) and access to certain assets.
Neutral
Russia crypto regulationretail limitsprivacy coin banstate-led infrastructuresanctions risk
Upexi filed a U.S. shelf registration to raise up to $1 billion via common or preferred stock, debt securities, warrants or units, with proceeds for general corporate purposes. The filing signals the company may resume expanding its Solana (SOL) treasury after more than five months without purchases. CoinGecko data shows Upexi holds about 2.1 million SOL (~$262.3m), making it the fourth-largest corporate Solana holder; the position peaked near $525m in mid‑September and now shows an unrealized loss of roughly 19%. The announcement prompted a 7.54% intraday drop in Upexi shares (closed $1.84) with a modest after-hours recovery to $1.92. Market context: Solana’s price is down about 57.5% from its January 19, 2025 all‑time high to ~$123.75. For traders, the shelf filing raises two main vectors of impact — the potential for renewed SOL accumulation or staking by Upexi (which could be supportive for SOL demand) and the risk of share dilution or renewed selling pressure if securities are issued into the market. Key watch points: details and timing of any offering, whether proceeds are earmarked for SOL purchases or staking, changes in Upexi’s SOL accumulation, and SOL price action. Primary keywords: Upexi, Solana, SOL, shelf registration, treasury. Secondary keywords: SEC filing, staking, corporate crypto treasury, share dilution.
The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) drew approximately $25.4 billion of net inflows in 2025 but still posted a 9.59% year-to-date loss after Bitcoin weakened in Q4. IBIT ranked among the top Bitcoin spot ETFs by capital inflows yet underperformed due to late-year price pressure. Overall Bitcoin spot ETF assets fell from a $150 billion peak to $114 billion following about $36 billion of net outflows in November–December. Market indicators, including a mostly negative Coinbase Premium Index and CryptoQuant data, signalled reduced U.S. institutional buying in Q4. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas flagged IBIT as the only Flow Leaderboard ETF with a negative yearly return, underscoring the timing mismatch between inflows and price moves. Analysts view the slowdown as cyclical — tactical de-risking amid regulatory and macro uncertainty rather than a structural institutional exit. IBIT’s advantages (large inflows, low expense ratio, BlackRock backing) suggest persistent institutional interest and potential for recovery if Bitcoin stabilizes. Traders should monitor ETF flows, the Coinbase premium, and spot BTC price for short-term volatility cues; sustained inflows with stabilizing price would be a bullish signal, while continued outflows and a negative premium would raise downside risk.
A large USDT holder lost about $50 million after an address-poisoning scam. The attacker generated a visually similar wallet, sent a tiny “dust” transfer so that the lookalike address appeared in the victim’s recent-transaction history, and exploited address-copying UX. The victim first completed a 50 USDT test transfer to the correct address, then copied the poisoned address from history and sent 49,999,950 USDT to the attacker. On-chain analysts report the thief quickly swapped the stolen USDT into ETH, distributed funds across multiple wallets and began routing amounts through the mixer Tornado Cash. The victim publicly demanded 98% return within 48 hours and threatened civil, criminal and international law-enforcement action. The case underlines persistent UX and address-verification risks (address similarity, history-based copying and dust attacks) and reinforces best practices for large transfers: confirm full addresses manually, use address whitelists/hardware wallets, small test transfers, and out-of-band verification. Market-relevant points: rapid conversion of large USDT balances into ETH and use of mixers can create short-term sell pressure on ETH and increases counterparty risk for large stablecoin movements; traders should watch associated wallet flows and DEX/OTC liquidity for potential price impact.
USX, a Solana-native dollar-pegged stablecoin issued by Solstice Finance, experienced an extreme secondary-market depeg on Dec 26, 2025 after severe liquidity evaporation on DEXs (Orca, Raydium). On isolated trades reported by PeckShield, USX briefly fell to $0.10 amid extremely thin order books; aggregated DEX data showed many trades clustered around $0.80 before Solstice and market makers injected liquidity. Primary-market reserves remained overcollateralized and 1:1 redemptions through permissioned institutional channels were operational throughout. After liquidity support, USX recovered to roughly $0.94 and later near $0.995; CoinGecko logged an intraday low of $0.8285 and a high of $1.01. Solstice plans third-party attestation of collateral and is working with partners to deepen secondary-market liquidity. Market context: USX’s market cap is in the hundreds of millions (≈$284M reported) within a stablecoin sector valued at hundreds of billions, underscoring systemic liquidity risks. Key takeaways for traders: (1) secondary-market liquidity shortfalls can produce extreme, short-lived price dislocations even when on‑chain collateral is intact; (2) issuer and market‑maker interventions can restore peg quickly but do not remove reputational and contagion risk; (3) expect elevated intraday volatility for USX and potential spillovers to Solana-linked assets and other algorithmic or thinly collateralized stablecoins while attestation and liquidity measures are pending. Monitor DEX depth, on‑chain reserve attestations, redemption status, and market‑maker activity for trading and risk decisions.
Mutuum Finance (MUTM), an Ethereum-based DeFi lending and borrowing protocol, is entering its final presale phase with Phase 6 reported over 99% allocated as the project prepares a V1 deployment to Sepolia testnet in Q4 2025. The protocol will launch liquidity pools, mtTokens, debt tokens and an automated liquidator with initial asset support for ETH and USDT. Mutuum highlights security and readiness: a CertiK token scan score of 90/100, an ongoing Halborn audit, and a $50k bug bounty. Fundraising and token metrics: the project has raised about $19.45M from roughly 18.6k investors; MUTM started at $0.01 and trades near $0.035 (~+250%). Tokenomics: 4 billion max supply with ~1.82B (45.5%) allocated for early distribution and ~825M reportedly sold so far, leaving remaining presale supply scarce. Demand signals include increased payment accessibility (card payments) and reported whale allocations (e.g., $100k). Roadmap items ahead of mainnet include a protocol-backed multi-asset stablecoin and Chainlink-fed oracles with fallbacks. For traders: tightening presale allocation, strong fundraising, security checks and whale activity create a bullish narrative for MUTM’s price leading up to and potentially after the V1 testnet; however, this is based on press-release information and not investment advice.
Trust Wallet’s Chrome browser extension (v2.68) was compromised over the Christmas period, leading to roughly $7 million in user losses. Security firm SlowMist says a malicious backdoor was prepared from Dec. 8, injected Dec. 22 and began siphoning funds on Dec. 25; it also reportedly exfiltrated personal data. On-chain investigator ZachXBT and other researchers flagged hundreds of affected users. Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao — Trust Wallet’s owner — announced that Trust Wallet will fully reimburse victims and suggested possible insider involvement. Trust Wallet advised desktop users to disable the compromised extension and upgrade to the patched release (users were told to install the fixed extension from the official Chrome Web Store). The incident highlights growing supply-chain and browser-extension risks for desktop wallets and is being discussed alongside broader industry theft trends: Chainalysis data shows personal-wallet compromises are a rising share of stolen crypto. For traders: expect potential short-term selling pressure on affected ecosystem tokens and increased demand for hardware and custodial solutions; monitor wallet-extension updates, reimbursement timelines, and any follow-up forensic or regulatory findings.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped into the ’extreme fear’ zone, reading around 20–23 on Alternative.me’s 0–100 scale. The index aggregates six inputs — volatility, market momentum/volume, social media sentiment, surveys, Bitcoin dominance and Google Trends — and is updated daily. Such low readings are commonly treated as contrarian signals: historically they have sometimes preceded recoveries, while extreme greed has signalled market tops. For traders, the index should be used as context rather than a standalone trigger. Recommended actions include avoiding impulse trades, reassessing portfolio allocations to reduce overexposure, conducting due diligence on projects, and using dollar-cost averaging (DCA) to accumulate gradually. The article stresses combining the index with technical and fundamental analysis because negative sentiment can persist and lead to continued downside. Heavy influence from Bitcoin metrics means Bitcoin’s price action will materially affect the index and broader market sentiment.
Neutral
Fear & Greed IndexMarket SentimentBitcoinTrading StrategyDollar-Cost Averaging
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says ‘altcoin season’ has not ended but evolved: gains are now concentrated in selective, narrative-driven small- and mid-cap tokens rather than broad market rotations. Citing Hyperliquid’s HYPE surge (from under $5 to about $58 in 2025) and Solana’s rebound toward $300, Hayes argues traders should stop relying on historical BTC→ETH→alt rotations and instead screen for projects with real on-chain activity and fresh narratives. He flagged privacy-focused chains as potential opportunities amid regulatory pressure. Hayes remains broadly bullish, pointing to Fed liquidity and reserve-management buys as tailwinds that could lift crypto — he even reiterated a multi-year Bitcoin upside scenario. Counterviews persist: some analysts expect legacy alts to benefit if ETF inflows arrive or foresee a BTC-to-ETH rotation before a wider altcoin run. On-chain data show mixed consolidation: several altcoins have posted strong selective rallies while many others remain fragmented. For traders: favor selective, narrative-led positions in active DeFi projects and monitor on-chain demand and liquidity conditions rather than relying on past-cycle assumptions.
BC Card, a major South Korean payments processor, completed a multi-week pilot allowing local merchants to accept foreign-currency stablecoin payments. Conducted with blockchain and payments partners, the trial tested custody, on/off ramps, QR-code payment flows, and conversion of stablecoins held in overseas wallets into Korean won via BC Card’s existing card authorization and settlement infrastructure. The company framed the exercise as an operational and compliance-focused test — validating system stability, settlement rails and legal readiness — rather than the launch of a retail stablecoin product. BC Card highlighted potential benefits for cross-border commerce and faster digital payouts to merchants but noted that wider rollout depends on regulatory alignment: South Korea is finalising a 2026 framework for won-pegged stablecoins and authorities are still resolving roles for banks and supervisors. No specific stablecoins, partner names or transaction volumes were disclosed. Traders should watch regulatory guidance, potential on/off-ramp volume signals, and announcements of partner integrations as indicators of future adoption and liquidity flows in stablecoin-related markets.
Michael Selig was confirmed by the Senate 53–43 as chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Former Trump AI and crypto adviser David Sacks praised Selig and SEC Chair Paul Atkins as a potential “dream team” that could deliver clearer, coordinated digital-asset oversight. Lawmakers are preparing a market-structure bill — primarily the Responsible Financial Innovation Act, based on the House-passed CLARITY Act — that would shift regulatory authority over many digital assets from the SEC to the CFTC. The Senate Banking Committee is expected to mark up the draft in early January, though progress has paused over the holidays and some senators have raised concerns about DeFi. Acting CFTC chair Caroline Pham’s transition date is unclear; reports say she will join MoonPay. For traders: this package could materially change jurisdiction, compliance obligations and market structure for token trading and derivatives. Aligned leadership at the CFTC and SEC may accelerate rule-making and implementation if the bill advances, increasing regulatory clarity but also introducing transitional uncertainty for markets.
US Representatives Max Miller (R-OH) and Steven Horsford (D-NV) circulated a discussion draft proposing targeted crypto tax changes aimed at simplifying routine stablecoin use and aligning crypto tax rules with broader code practices. Key measures include: a stablecoin safe harbor that exempts capital gains reporting for regulated USD‑pegged stablecoin transactions up to $200 (with conditions on regulation and price stability); an optional deferral allowing taxpayers to delay recognition of staking and mining rewards for up to five taxable years, with deferred rewards taxed as ordinary income at fair market value when recognized and that value becoming the asset’s basis for later capital gains; extension of wash-sale rules to actively traded digital assets; an elective mark‑to‑market accounting option for certain traders/dealers; constructive‑sale rules for hedging and updated charity donation rules. The draft is a discussion document (not yet a bill), subject to change before any formal House Ways and Means consideration, and provisions would apply to taxable years beginning after Dec. 31, 2025 if enacted. For traders, the proposal promises simpler reporting for small stablecoin payments, new reporting and election mechanics for deferred staking/mining income, and potential tax‑accounting changes for active traders that could affect trading strategy and tax timing.
Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R‑WY), a prominent pro-crypto lawmaker, announced she will not seek reelection in 2026 and will leave the Senate at the end of her term. Lummis helped lead early crypto policy efforts in Congress — including work on the Responsible Financial Innovation Act, the GENIUS Act stablecoin framework, the US Clarity Act, and the Bitcoin Act — and repeatedly pushed for clearer rules instead of enforcement-driven regulation from the SEC. The industry responded with widespread praise from figures such as Collin McCune (a16z), Greg Xethalis and Kyle Samani (Multicoin), David Sacks (White House crypto official), and Bitcoin advocates. Her exit removes a high-profile, Senate-level ally for clearer crypto legislation; stakeholders warn this raises risks to policy continuity and could slow progress on bills already moving through Congress. Lummis said fatigue and personal considerations informed her decision but plans to continue pushing crypto legislation through 2026. Traders should monitor legislative momentum on the US Clarity Act and other bills, nominee confirmations that shape regulatory enforcement, and any shifts in congressional coalition-building — all of which could affect regulatory certainty and short-term market volatility.
Caroline Ellison, former CEO of Alameda Research, is scheduled for release from federal custody on January 21, 2026, according to U.S. Bureau of Prisons records. Ellison, 31, pleaded guilty in December 2022 to fraud and conspiracy tied to the 2022 collapse of FTX and cooperated extensively with prosecutors, including testifying against FTX founder Sam Bankman‑Fried. She was sentenced in September 2024 to 24 months’ imprisonment and ordered to forfeit about $11 billion; she began serving her sentence in November 2024. Records show Ellison was transferred in October 2025 from a Connecticut federal prison to a Residential Reentry Management (RRM) office in New York and has been in community confinement since October 16, 2025. Her release date was recently moved forward from February 20, 2026 to January 21, 2026 — officials have not publicly explained the change, though it is likely due to good‑conduct credits and reentry programs. Post‑release conditions include three years of supervised release and a consented 10‑year bar on serving as an officer or director of public companies or crypto exchanges, per SEC notices. Sam Bankman‑Fried remains serving a 25‑year sentence and is pursuing clemency. For crypto traders: the development is primarily legal and personnel‑focused and is unlikely to directly move markets. However, Ellison’s early release and continued regulatory restrictions reinforce ongoing regulatory scrutiny and reputational risk tied to FTX‑related actors, which could sustain higher compliance costs and cautious sentiment across crypto firms.
Mutuum Finance (MUTM), a decentralized lending protocol, is nearing the end of its presale with Phase 6 over 99% allocated. The project has raised $19.45M, sold 825 million MUTM of a 4 billion max supply (45.5% allocated to early distribution), and has about 18,650 holders. Presale price moved from $0.01 in Phase 1 to $0.035 now; the planned public launch price is $0.06. Product and infrastructure highlights include a dual lending model (peer-to-contract liquidity pools plus peer-to-peer loans), utilization-based interest rates, mtTokens (interest-accruing supply tokens), debt tokens, an automated liquidator, a fee-driven buy-and-distribute mechanism, and planned oracle integration (eg. Chainlink) with fallback pricing. V1 is scheduled for Sepolia testnet in Q4 2025 supporting ETH and USDT. Security and risk mitigation measures cited: a CertiK token scan (90/100), an independent Halborn review in progress, and a $50k bug bounty. On-chain indicators reported include six-figure whale purchases, an active depositor leaderboard, and card payment on-ramps to boost acquisition. Analysts model bullish scenarios — short-term moves toward or above the $0.06 launch price (200–300% from current levels) and longer-term 500–700% upside if adoption, execution, and presale scarcity hold. Key risks: centralization of supply, execution risk at mainnet launch, audit outcomes, exchange liquidity at listing, and overall market conditions. For traders, monitor holder growth, whale activity, distribution concentration, audit reports, V1 testnet results, and available liquidity at launch before sizing positions.
Trust Wallet’s Chrome browser extension (version 2.68) was compromised via a malicious update that exfiltrated seed phrases and allowed attackers to drain wallets across multiple chains. Blockchain investigators traced more than $7 million stolen from wallets on BTC, ETH, SOL and BNB Chain, with funds rapidly routed through exchanges, swaps and mixers. The company confirmed the breach on-chain after researcher ZachXBT raised the alarm. Binance co-founder and CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) said Binance/Trust Wallet will reimburse verified losses and described the funds as “SAFU.” Trust Wallet released patched extension links and advised affected users to disable version 2.68 immediately and upgrade to 2.69; mobile apps and other extension versions were not affected. The team also warned against importing seed phrases into browser extensions and recommended hardware wallets for large balances. An internal review is under way to determine how a malicious update passed submission checks; investigations and reimbursement processes are ongoing. For traders: expect continued scrutiny on browser-extension security, potential short-term selling pressure on tokens tied to compromised chains if large on-chain sell-offs persist, and heightened demand for hardware and custody solutions.
Bearish
Trust WalletBrowser Extension HackWallet SecurityBinance ReimbursementUpgrade to 2.69
Sberbank, Russia’s largest bank, is exploring ruble loans collateralised by cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and other digital assets. Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov said the bank aims to let retail and corporate clients pledge crypto to obtain fiat liquidity without selling holdings, while working closely with regulators to design custody, operational infrastructure and legal safeguards. Sberbank has piloted custody via its Rutoken solution and organised more than 160 digital asset issuances this year, including tokenised real estate and oil-linked instruments, and is experimenting with DeFi tools. The bank is assessing technical, legal and regulatory requirements and says formal approvals will be required before rollout. Observers expect a gradual, regulated deployment; if authorised, the product could set a precedent and encourage other Russian banks to offer crypto-backed ruble lending. Key implications for traders include increased on-chain utility for Bitcoin and tokenised assets in Russia, potential growth in ruble-denominated crypto lending markets, and closer alignment between institutional banking and digital-asset ecosystems.
The Bank of Lithuania has set a firm deadline requiring domestic crypto-asset service providers to obtain MiCA-compliant licenses by December 31, 2025. From January 1, 2026, any unlicensed onboarding, custody or service provision will be illegal and subject to enforcement including fines, website blocks and potential criminal prosecution (penalties include up to four years’ imprisonment). The central bank urged firms to apply immediately. It also issued guidance for orderly wind-downs for operators that do not intend to seek licenses — including notifying customers, providing clear withdrawal and transfer instructions, and returning custodied assets. Lithuania implemented the licensing regime under the EU Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework and the transitional period allowing existing firms to seek approval expires at year-end. Of more than 370 crypto firms registered in Lithuania as of mid-July 2025, only about 30 had submitted license applications and roughly 10 reached active evaluation, indicating a likely large market contraction or relocation of services. MiCA compliance imposes stricter governance, local AML officer residency, written risk-management systems and minimum capital thresholds (EUR 50,000–150,000 depending on services). Traders should watch for immediate market-moving events: exchange relocations, site blocks, mass asset withdrawals and reduced liquidity or wider spreads on affected tokens. Expect sector consolidation and operational disruptions in the short term; monitor order books, withdrawal flows and listings to manage execution and counterparty risk.
Crypto derivatives volume jumped to roughly $85.7–86 trillion in 2025, averaging about $264 billion per day, according to CoinGlass. Binance led with about $25 trillion (~29% market share), while OKX, Bybit and Bitget each handled roughly $8–10 trillion; the top four accounted for ~62% of global derivatives activity. Institutional participation expanded materially: US spot Bitcoin ETFs, options desks and compliant futures drove more hedging and basis trades, and the CME often surpassed Binance in BTC futures open interest. Open interest started the year near $87 billion, peaked at a record $236 billion on Oct. 7, then fell after an early-Q4 reset that erased over $70 billion in positions; year-end open interest closed around $145 billion (up ~17% from the start). Forced liquidations for 2025 totaled about $150 billion, including a concentrated deleveraging event on Oct. 10–11 that wiped out more than $19 billion in two days — highlighting sensitivity to macro shocks and deep leverage chains. Bitcoin traded near $90k during reporting (≈$89,950); US-listed spot ETFs saw net outflows late in the year and a record options expiry on Dec. 26 likely compressed price moves. Key takeaways for traders: derivatives remain the primary price-discovery venue; market liquidity and risk dynamics are shifting toward institution-led hedging and basis trades; centralisation of volume on a few exchanges increases systemic and counterparty concentration risk; and macro or regulatory shocks can trigger cascading liquidations across interconnected leverage positions.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs registered roughly $826 million in net outflows across the five trading days ending Dec. 24, 2025, with about $175 million withdrawn on Christmas Eve, according to Farside Investors. Flows were negative on every trading day since Dec. 15 except Dec. 17, which saw a $457 million inflow. Traders and analysts attribute the selling to routine year‑end activity — notably tax‑loss harvesting — and a large quarterly options expiry that temporarily reduced risk appetite. Outflows concentrated during US trading hours; the Coinbase premium traded below zero for much of December, indicating weaker US demand while Asian venues absorbed buying. On‑chain metrics show long‑term holders are not aggressively exiting and realized gains point to moderate profit‑taking rather than wholesale liquidation. The 30‑day moving average of US spot ETF net flows for both Bitcoin and Ethereum has been negative since early November, implying liquidity is largely inactive rather than structurally broken. Market participants expect choppy price action near term while US buyers remain sidelined; if post‑holiday flows move back toward neutral or positive, Bitcoin could stabilise and resume upward moves without needing outsized new demand. This summary is for informational purposes and not investment advice.
Hong Kong’s Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau (FSTB) and the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) have concluded consultations and will move to legislate new licensing regimes for virtual asset dealers and custodians. The proposals bring non‑exchange dealers and custodians under an SFC framework modelled on existing Type 1 securities requirements: dealers will need authorization to provide dealing services (including OTC execution) and meet standards similar to traditional securities firms, adapted for crypto risks; custodians must demonstrate secure private‑key management, asset segregation, internal controls and operational resilience. The reforms close a regulatory gap in Hong Kong’s ASPIRe roadmap, aim to attract institutional investors by improving custody and counterparty transparency, and encourage firms to engage in early “pre‑application discussions” with regulators. Officials signalled the next phase will cover virtual asset advisors and asset managers. For traders, the rules could raise onboarding and compliance costs for OTC dealers and custodians, reduce custody counterparty risk, and may temporarily affect OTC liquidity as counterparties adjust. The move aligns Hong Kong with global trends toward licensed, supervised crypto markets and is intended to balance market development, risk management and investor protection.
Neutral
Hong Kong regulationcrypto custodyvirtual asset dealersSFC licensinginstitutional crypto
Glassnode reports that major spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) exchange-traded funds have recorded sustained net outflows since early November, with the 30-day simple moving average (30D‑SMA) of flows turning and remaining negative. Combined outflows across conventional markets total roughly $952 million over the seven- to eight-week period. Although outflow intensity has eased recently, the persistent negative 30D‑SMA points to muted institutional participation and partial disengagement from crypto allocations. Analysts link the trend to broader risk-off conditions—equities and commodities (gold, silver, copper) have outperformed while BTC traded defensively. Historical precedent shows similar outflow phases (March–April) later reversed into large inflows and a multi-month BTC rally, so reversals remain possible. For traders: expect elevated ETF-related selling pressure on BTC and ETH, tighter liquidity, and higher short-term volatility and downside risk. Key indicators to watch are ETF net flows, the 30D‑SMA trend, spot price reactions, and capital shifts into competing assets; select funds (notably BlackRock’s IBIT) have shown relative resilience, attracting inflows and long-term capital despite negative YTD returns.