Latest Crypto News | Bitcoin, Ethereum and Altcoin Updates

On March 25, crypto sleuth ZachXBT said an Iranian exchange Wallex “wallet” (address starting 0x6926) has been frozen by Circle and Tether. The report follows Wallex’s recent consolidation activity: the exchange began moving assets from multiple Tron and Ethereum hot wallets via cross-chain bridges to BSC. ZachXBT noted that about $2.49M is currently stuck in an address starting 0xf945, with no further transfers observed. For traders, the key takeaway is that the Wallex wallet is directly linked to stablecoin enforcement (USDC from Circle and USDT from Tether). When such freezes hit, they can reduce liquidity available to the exchange and trigger short-term volatility in related on-chain flows—especially stablecoins used to route transactions through bridges and centralized exchange wallets.

Gold prices are plunging amid Iran-war uncertainty and broader macro stress, with the metal dumping ~8% for the week and falling ~15% from its late-January all-time high near $5,500/oz. Gold also slipped to about a 10-week low near $4,550/oz, challenging the idea that gold is a reliable safe haven. Bloomberg analysts said gold was meant to hedge the Iran war, but instead “traded like everything else: down.” Traders also note weaker diversification signals: gold is described as having little correlation to stocks, yet it can behave like a risk asset when liquidity tightens. CNBC attributes the sell-off to a stronger US dollar and elevated Treasury yields, which reduce gold’s appeal. In contrast, Bitcoin is holding around the $70,000 area and remains in a sideways channel since early February, with higher highs/higher lows suggesting a potential constructive path. Bitcoin ETF flows also look supportive: Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said there have been about $2.5 billion in inflows for the month and investors are “one good day” away from fully recovering the year-to-date outflow gap. Overall, the gold sell-off vs. BTC resilience highlights a changing risk/hedge dynamic for portfolio positioning.

BNB Chain and YZi Labs have kicked off the BNB Chain Dev Roadshow with the first stop at New York University (NYU). The four-city tour (March–April 2026) is designed to onboard student developers and highlight on-chain building tools, resources, and opportunities. Each session is structured as a working workshop with live presentations, practical developer infrastructure, and open Q&A with the BNB Chain and YZi Labs teams. Topics include developer tooling, on-chain application opportunities, and the broader BNB Chain ecosystem. The schedule announced in the release: - NYU: March 24, 2026 (NY, on-campus meetup + presentations, Q&A, networking) - UPenn: March 27–28, 2026 (Penn Blockchain Conference sponsorship and sessions) - Harvard: March 30, 2026 (on-campus meetup + Q&A) - UC Berkeley: April 7, 2026 (developer tools and getting started building on-chain + local networking) BNB Chain positions the effort around its EVM compatibility, high throughput, and low transaction costs—aiming to attract the next wave of on-chain builders. Attendance is open to students, developers, and others interested in Web3. For crypto traders, this is a developer-growth initiative rather than a protocol upgrade or token event, but sustained developer traction can be a mild positive signal for network sentiment over time. The BNB Chain Dev Roadshow may also increase ecosystem awareness around wallets, tooling, and potential app launches.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) has broken above a descending trendline resistance after weeks of consolidation, a technical shift that traders interpret as early reversal potential. The article notes that confirmation likely needs sustained follow-through; otherwise, SHIB could slip back into a range. Momentum signals are mixed in the short term. The RSI has bounced from an overbought area, while stochastic RSI suggests a possible pause or brief correction before any bullish continuation. Traders are therefore watching a retest near the $0.000055 zone. The $0.000055 area is also framed as a potential liquidity pool where a liquidity sweep could “squeeze” weak hands and rebuild order flow. On-chain and flow data are supportive. Over the past 48 hours, SHIB recorded positive exchange inflows totaling about 800 billion SHIB (around $4.8M at the time of writing). The interpretation is that new capital may be entering exchanges with intent to take long positions during a pullback. Next key levels highlighted: $0.000055 as the pivot for the retest, and $0.000065 as the next upside target if buyers defend the retest and follow through on the breakout. The piece stresses risk management because short-term volatility and a retest failure could send SHIB back into consolidation.

EUR/USD is holding a narrow range around 1.1600 as markets weigh critical US–Iran peace negotiations. The article notes subdued spot movement and low realized volatility, but rising hedging demand in the options market suggests traders expect a future volatility expansion. Key technical levels are in focus: resistance near 1.1650 and support around 1.1550. A sustained break outside the roughly 100-pip band would likely signal the market’s next directional move. Fundamentally, the pair’s range reflects shifting monetary policy expectations between the ECB and the Fed, plus mixed Eurozone and US data. However, geopolitics remains the dominant short-term catalyst. A successful de-escalation would typically support risk sentiment and could lift EUR/USD, while a negotiation breakdown would likely increase safe-haven demand for the US dollar and pressure EUR/USD. The news highlights cross-asset transmission: energy price swings and risk sentiment could amplify FX moves, with potential spillovers into corporate hedging costs and inflation expectations via import/export prices. Overall, EUR/USD is framed as a real-time gauge of market anxiety around the US–Iran diplomatic timeline, with traders watching headlines closely for the next breakout.

The US sent Iran a 15-point peace proposal via an intermediary, and traders quickly reacted across risk assets. Bitcoin held above $71,000, gaining about 0.9% on the day for a third straight session above the key $70,000 level. However, BTC still fell roughly 6.4% on the week after a weekend selloff and liquidations. Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich (FxPro) said BTC staying above $70,000 shows market strength, even without a decisive breakout. In crypto, Ethereum rose around 1.7% intraday but posted the weakest weekly performance among major coins. XRP edged up slightly yet still ended the week down more than 8%. Solana gained about 2.5% today but was lower on the week, while Binance Coin continued weekly losses. Tron was the only major digital asset showing gains both daily and weekly. Macro signals also shifted. After the peace news, Brent crude dropped 4.7%, falling below $100 for the first time since mid-March. The oil slide eased inflation fears tied to risk assets and coincided with a weaker US dollar and firmer Asian equities. Market futures in the US and Europe turned positive, suggesting improved sentiment. Lower oil may also reduce pressure for the US Federal Reserve to tighten policy, supporting global liquidity. The article highlights a strong 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, though the relationship has briefly diverged during the conflict. Geopolitical uncertainty remains, with limited details on the peace plan and constrained maritime traffic through the Bosphorus Straits. Keywords: US-Iran peace proposal, Bitcoin price, crypto volatility, Brent crude, Federal Reserve, liquidity.

Wintermute’s derivatives arm, Wintermute Asia, has launched OTC WTI oil CFDs, letting traders speculate on crude oil prices 24/7 using digital-asset infrastructure. The product is built to differ from exchange-listed perpetual futures like Hyperliquid’s. Wintermute WTI CFDs are contracts for difference: traders don’t take physical ownership of oil. Instead, only the price difference between opening and closing is settled when the contract is closed. The OTC structure is meant to be bespoke, with flexible contract terms, margin settings, and execution methods. A key point is access and settlement model. Wintermute is the counterparty to CFD traders (not a peer-to-peer match), taking on market risk and leveraging its risk management and liquidity. Traders can use fiat or crypto collateral, and execution can be done via chat, Wintermute’s electronic OTC platform, or an API. The announcement also says WTI CFDs have zero trading fees. The rollout follows heightened Middle East geopolitical volatility, including Iran–U.S./Israel tensions, which has disrupted traditional market hours and encouraged activity on 24/7 crypto trading venues. Wintermute said many investors were unable to react until traditional venues reopened, creating demand for a more immediate way to trade oil—specifically via Wintermute WTI CFDs. Overall, this expands crypto-native derivatives rails into traditional commodities while targeting weekend and off-hours risk management needs.

Analytics firm Juice Reel says prediction market users lose more than traditional sports bettors. Across an 18-month dataset covering 2.3 million trades and bets, the median return for prediction markets is -8.0%, versus -5.0% for sports betting. The gap widens for smaller participants. Prediction market users trading under $500,000 show consistent losses. Those dealing with less than $100 face the worst results, with a -26.8% loss rate. By contrast, sports betting shows a less extreme spread. Juice Reel finds major structure-driven advantages for professionals in prediction markets. Sports betting operators often use risk management tools to limit successful bettors (“gubbing”/bet limiting). Prediction markets generally do not apply similar restrictions, allowing quantitative traders, market makers, and institutional participants to compete more directly. That professional dominance shows up in volume tiers: prediction market traders with over $500,000 reportedly achieve a +2.6% return, despite representing ~3% of users but ~42% of volume. Performance metrics reinforce the pattern: prediction markets show a lower win rate (47.3% vs 52.1%) and longer average hold times (6.2 days vs 2.1 days). The bottom quartile is notably worse in prediction markets (-31.5% vs -18.9%). The findings arrive as regulators debate how to classify prediction markets, with inconsistent rules across jurisdictions. For traders, the key takeaway is that prediction markets may embed a structural retail disadvantage, driven by execution, information, and capital efficiency. Risk management—especially position sizing, diversification, and using paper trading—becomes more important as competition professionalizes.

Ripple CTO Emeritus David Schwartz rejected proposals to subsidize XRP adoption through “artificial incentives” or “fake discounts” for banks. A community member suggested lowering institutional software subscription fees if institutions facilitate transactions with XRP. Schwartz said Ripple has explored similar concepts, but he warned that manipulating prices to force usage creates a fragile business model. He compared the risk to early, loss-making tactics used by tech startups such as Uber—where subsidies can attract users temporarily but may not sustain a healthy long-term business. Instead, Schwartz emphasized Ripple’s strategy to remove friction in cross-border payments so the utility of XRP can stand on its own. He also noted that Ripple has used incentives in the past under “logical conditions,” including paying counterparties and supporting adoption—most notably via MoneyGram, where Ripple reportedly invested $50 million initially and provided ongoing “market development fees.” For traders, the key takeaway is that XRP adoption narratives are likely to stay focused on payment utility rather than discount-driven demand, which may reduce expectations of near-term “incentive-led” catalysts tied directly to XRP pricing.

Hyperliquid HIP-3 set a new milestone on March 23, processing $5.4B in daily trading volume, according to verified on-chain data from Artemis. Hyperliquid HIP-3’s surge was driven largely by commodity-based perpetual contracts as traders sought 24/7 hedging amid macro and geopolitical uncertainty. Artemis data shows commodity futures dominated the flow: Silver ($1.3B), WTI Crude ($1.2B), Brent Crude ($940M), Gold ($558M), Nasdaq ($370M), and S&P 500 ($271M). Together, commodity contracts (Silver, WTI, Brent, Gold) totaled about $4B—roughly 74% of total volume. The article attributes the spike to HIP-3’s fully on-chain design and permissionless market creation. Markets can be created by staking the HYPE token, enabling deep liquidity and new trading pairs without exchange listing gatekeeping. Perpetuals have no expiry date and the platform runs 24/7 with no central custodian, which can matter when traditional futures markets are closed. It also notes a temporal advantage: crypto derivatives can trade around the clock and react to continuously unfolding news (for example, Middle East-related oil supply tensions). The record volume adds to a broader pattern of rising notional value locked in decentralized derivatives, with Hyperliquid frequently leading in daily activity. For traders, the key takeaway is that Hyperliquid HIP-3 commodity exposure is attracting significant leverage and hedging demand, which may tighten liquidity and sharpen price discovery for these instruments in DeFi—while also increasing smart-contract, oracle, and liquidation-related risk sensitivity.

Thai-listed distribution company DV8 says it plans a major Bitcoin acquisition strategy, targeting 10,000 BTC by 2028. The first phase is to buy 1,000 BTC within the current fiscal year. DV8 also plans to acquire Rakkar Digital, a cryptocurrency custody/wallet service provider, to secure its holdings with institutional-grade key management and compliance. The company’s roadmap mirrors the corporate “HODL” model associated with MicroStrategy, which began accumulating BTC in 2020 and has amassed over 200,000 BTC. The article frames the move as vertical integration plus treasury diversification. At current pricing, 10,000 BTC is estimated around $600 million, creating potential non-exchange demand that could affect liquidity and sentiment during Asian trading hours. Key risks highlighted include Bitcoin price volatility impacting quarterly results, evolving regulatory treatment in Thailand and globally, and operational security for private keys. The company is expected to use phased buying (e.g., dollar-cost averaging) and adopt relevant accounting treatment for long-term holdings. For crypto traders, this DV8 Bitcoin acquisition is a signal of growing institutional appetite in Southeast Asia and may support a bullish narrative if follow-through is credible, especially as custody capabilities are planned via the Rakkar Digital deal.

Litecoin halving dates are predictable, recurring every 840,000 blocks (about every four years). Each Litecoin halving cuts the block reward by 50%, tightening new LTC supply and shaping miner economics. Historical Litecoin halving dates: Aug 25, 2015 (50→25 LTC), Aug 5, 2019 (25→12.5 LTC), and Aug 2, 2023 (12.5→6.25 LTC). Next Litecoin halving is projected for July 2027, when rewards drop from 6.25 LTC to 3.125 LTC. The exact calendar day may shift slightly because halvings are based on block production, not a fixed date. Why it matters for traders: reduced issuance can create a “supply shock” if demand holds or rises, but price reaction is not guaranteed. Miners may face lower profitability, potentially increasing reliance on transaction fees and encouraging network consolidation. The article also compares Litecoin halving vs Bitcoin halving: both follow a ~4-year cycle and aim to enforce scarcity, but Litecoin runs faster blocks (2.5 minutes vs 10 minutes) and has a higher maximum supply (84M vs 21M).

Russia plans to ban or restrict foreign “cross-border AI tools” starting in 2027, citing risks of covert manipulation and discriminatory algorithms. The proposal, set out by the Ministry for Digital Development and reviewed by the government ahead of enforcement, would require foreign AI applications used by 500,000+ people daily to store user data, queries and dialogues on Russian territory for three years. Non-compliant tools could be blocked or limited. The rule is aimed at major services such as ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini, where user interactions are transmitted to developers outside Russia. Lawyer Kirill Dyakov said enforcement is not a full blackout: controlled access to China-based models like Qwen or DeepSeek may remain possible. The policy is expected to support domestic AI development by Sberbank and Yandex. Separately, the UK is considering AI-generated-content labeling to protect the creative sector from deepfakes and disinformation. For crypto traders, this is a regulation-driven tech sector shift rather than a direct token policy. However, it can influence sentiment around AI infrastructure, compliance tech, and data sovereignty narratives, which sometimes spill into Web3 and enterprise blockchain themes.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Deputy Governor Paul Conway says “economic slack” should be central to how central banks respond to oil price shocks. Economic slack is defined as the gap between actual output and potential output. Conway argues that when economic slack is sizable, higher oil prices are more likely to produce only temporary inflation effects. In that case, central banks may avoid immediate tightening because businesses and workers can absorb part of the cost increase through weaker demand, lower wage pressure, or reduced pass-through to consumer prices. By contrast, if an economy is near or above capacity (limited slack), similar oil-driven price rises could trigger stronger, second-round inflation risks and justify a more aggressive response. He links this framework to historical patterns. The 1970s oil shocks coincided with relatively low slack in many advanced economies, contributing to stagflation. In 2014–2016, the oil price fall occurred amid significant global slack, and central banks stayed accommodative despite deflationary pressures. Practically, the RBNZ assesses economic slack using multiple indicators: output gap estimates, labor market conditions (unemployment, underemployment, wage growth), capacity utilization, and inflation expectations. The article notes New Zealand currently has moderate economic slack, consistent with a calibrated, watchful approach under RBNZ’s flexible inflation targeting (1%–3% medium-term). Conway also emphasizes communication: central banks should explain why they may “look through” temporary oil-driven inflation, so markets do not misread inaction as disregard for inflation. For markets, the key takeaway is that oil volatility may not translate into uniform monetary policy moves across countries; differences in economic slack can drive divergence in rates expectations.

Regional conflict across Iran and the Middle East (Feb–Mar 2026) disrupted physical gold logistics, especially in Dubai, a major bullion trading hub. After US and Israeli strikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, gold prices reportedly surged beyond $5,000/oz, but physical deliveries stalled as shipping firms suspended Middle East routes, insurers hesitated to underwrite war risks, and Dubai brokers struggled to move stored bullion. Within the first 72 hours, trading activity rose while access to physical gold deteriorated. Dubai’s local physical gold price reportedly fell below London spot despite higher global pricing, highlighting a transferability/access risk: vault-held gold can become difficult to retrieve when tensions escalate. Investors also faced added holding/storage fees. In contrast, tokenized gold solutions gained traction. Tokenized bullion—where ownership of allocated reserves is represented by tokens on blockchain—continued to transact during periods when air shipments from Dubai stopped and insurance coverage was withdrawn. The article cites Techemynt (GoldNZ/SilverNZ) as an example: token holders can trade tokens on secondary markets and request redemption, while physical withdrawals are processed quarterly (not on-demand). Reported settlement speed for token transfers is minutes versus weeks for physical movement or liquidation. However, the article flags risks for tokenized gold, including smart-contract/cybersecurity exposure and evolving liquidity in secondary markets. Overall, the event reinforced the market’s “safe-haven vs access” split: gold value may remain resilient, but tokenized gold may reduce operational friction during crises. For crypto traders, tokenized gold is a real-world driver of blockchain adoption—at the same time, it is not risk-free.

Kalshi and fintech firm FIS have launched new clearing infrastructure to bring Kalshi prediction markets to institutional investors. The project, called FIS CD Prediction Clearing, is designed to connect prediction markets with banks’ and asset managers’ existing trading workflows. FIS provides financial technology used by banks, brokers, and asset managers at large transaction volumes. By integrating Kalshi’s regulated exchange for event contracts into FIS infrastructure, clients can access a new asset class (event-based outcomes) without switching platforms. The clearing system targets real-time clearing and high-volume trade processing to support fast execution, along with institutional-style risk management and reporting. A Kalshi spokesperson said the goal is to integrate prediction markets into core financial workflows and reduce operational friction while supporting compliance. Kalshi reported roughly $10.4B trading volume in the prior month, reinforcing growing demand for regulated event-based trading products. The partnership is positioned as a key step for broader market growth as more institutions gain compliant, infrastructure-friendly access to Kalshi prediction markets.

Bitcoin (BTC) is holding steady above $70,000, trading near $71,000 after a volatile week. The latest dip in risk sentiment eased as Brent crude fell 4.7% to $99.55, after reports that the U.S. drafted a 15-point Iran peace plan delivered to Tehran via Pakistan. Markets also saw a possible one-month ceasefire proposal. For crypto traders, the key link is macro liquidity. Lower oil prices reduce inflation headwinds and raise the odds the Fed holds rates rather than hikes. BTC briefly extended but remains down 6.4% on the week, after last week’s move from $75,000 and subsequent liquidation-driven volatility. Most major altcoins are still weak on a weekly basis: Ether (ETH) is up slightly on the day but down 9.2% on the week; XRP, SOL, BNB and DOGE are all lower weekly. Tron (TRX) is the only large coin green on both daily and weekly timeframes. The market is now focused on whether the U.S.-backed 15-point plan leads to a real ceasefire or becomes another headline risk. BTC’s ability to stay above $70,000 may be an early signal of stabilization while traders watch further confirmation from diplomacy.

Bitcoin is rallying on renewed war-risk and de-escalation headlines, trading above $70,000 and reframing the “gold-like” safe-haven narrative. After US President Donald Trump ordered a five-day strike pause following talks with Iran, Bitcoin surged over the weekend to around $72,650, while gold fell and volatility hit traditional commodities. Since US-Israeli airstrikes began on Feb 28, Bitcoin is up roughly 30% (about $66,200 to near $72,650). Over the same window, gold has dropped ~2% (to below $4,300/oz) and is down nearly 25% from its all-time high, with analysts citing heavy precious-metals drawdowns. Silver’s losses appear even larger, and the Strait of Hormuz disruption has also pressured oil and broader risk assets. Market flows suggest traders are rotating into Bitcoin. Between March 16–20, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $94.5 million for a fourth consecutive week, while some gold-backed funds reportedly saw assets under management decline. A stronger US dollar and higher Treasury yields have pressured gold because it offers no yield. Technical focus is now on Bitcoin levels: a sustained break above $72,000 could open a move toward $75,000. However, even with the strike pause, reports say US-Israeli forces again hit Iranian energy facilities on Monday, keeping geopolitical outcomes uncertain.

Silver price rebound accelerated after news that the US delivered a formal 15-point diplomatic plan to Iran to de-escalate regional conflict. The spot silver market erased earlier weekly losses, with silver futures seeing increased buying volume tied to the announcement. The rally is being framed as a reduction in tail risk: lower Middle East tension could weaken the US dollar’s safe-haven appeal, while reduced supply-disruption fears may support industrial demand for silver. Reported plan elements (not fully public) include mutual security guarantees, a framework to revive the JCPOA nuclear deal, regional dialogue mechanisms, and a phased approach to lifting sanctions based on verifiable Iranian actions. Analysts stress that the silver price rebound reflects improved sentiment, but the outcome remains fragile given verification disputes and domestic political constraints seen in past negotiations. Multi-asset reaction cited in the article: Silver (XAG/USD) +3.2%, Gold (XAU/USD) +1.1%, Brent crude -2.8% (lower risk premium), and the US Dollar Index (DXY) -0.5%. What traders are watching next: Iran’s official response, follow-up communiqués from the US State Department and Iran’s Foreign Ministry, weekly silver ETF inventory updates (e.g., SLV), and shifts in dollar strength tied to the Fed’s outlook. In crypto market terms, the silver price rebound is mainly a macro/geopolitics signal—potentially supporting risk appetite if de-escalation holds, but also highlighting event-driven volatility if negotiations stall. Overall, the move looks like an early sentiment-driven bounce that must be confirmed by concrete diplomatic progress.

Binance Wallet has started the PRL Token Generation Event (TGE) on March 21, 2025, with a structured early-access window for Binance Alpha Points holders. The PRL Token Generation Event began at 10:00 a.m. UTC after a pre-TGE subscription period from 8:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m. UTC. Binance set the launch allocation at 10 million PRL tokens for the TGE, while noting that further details on distribution ratios and post-launch utility will be released later. Eligibility for the pre-TGE subscription was gated by a threshold amount of Binance Alpha Points, a mechanism intended to reward active users and reduce purely speculative participation. Market credibility is boosted by a prior announcement from U.S. exchange Coinbase that it intends to list PRL. Traders may view this as an additional due-diligence signal, which can improve liquidity expectations versus tokens with only single-platform support. Overall, the PRL Token Generation Event reflects a broader 2025 trend toward more transparent, eligibility-based token launches under heightened regulatory scrutiny. The clear timing (UTC), capped supply (10M), and Coinbase listing expectations could support a more orderly price discovery after the TGE, though exact trading outcomes will depend on final utility details and post-launch market demand.

Ethereum (ETH) may look steady, but new data points to weaker U.S. demand. The Coinbase Premium Index (ETH price gap between Coinbase and Binance) is negative around -0.0149, implying Ethereum could be trading cheaper on Coinbase than on Binance. Even during a recovery, this discount has persisted, suggesting reduced buying pressure and/or higher selling pressure from U.S. investors. Order-flow signals show a whale-led market. CryptoQuant data highlights consistently elevated average order sizes, meaning large players dominate Ethereum spot activity. What’s missing is retail participation: smaller order flows have not picked up alongside whale trades, leaving market structure one-sided. Technical and derivatives indicators also suggest fading momentum. On the daily chart, ETH held above the $2,100 zone, but momentum looked shaky: RSI stayed near neutral while MACD flattened. Derivatives data aligns with caution—Open Interest fell from earlier highs (traders stepping back), while Funding Rates still leaned toward longs, though not aggressively. For traders, the key theme is fragility: whales are present, but without retail support from the U.S., upside may struggle to sustain. (Analyst notes: this is market commentary, not investment advice.)

Cardano (ADA) is facing steep losses as market positioning turns extreme. Over the past 12 months, Cardano holders’ average loss is about 43%, according to Santiment’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value). This “opportunity region” often appears before sharp rebounds when panic selling subsides. At the same time, Cardano’s futures market has seen short positions climb to all-time highs, while Binance’s average weekly funding rate has sunk to its most negative level since June 2023. Negative funding suggests traders are heavily betting on further downside; historically, such one-sided positioning can fuel a short squeeze if price starts rising. Still, fundamentals are not providing support: Cardano network usage and ecosystem growth have not met expectations, and broader macro uncertainty (geopolitical tensions, high inflation, and fewer rate-cut hopes) is weighing on crypto. Price context: ADA was around $0.26 on Tuesday, down ~7% on the week, and down about 71% since September. The article highlights that Cardano’s MVRV drawdown plus deeply negative funding rates have previously coincided with significant upside moves (notably mid-2023).

Preliminary analysis for February 2025 suggests UK CPI inflation remains stubbornly high above the Bank of England’s 2% target. Core inflation is especially resilient, with fewer signs of disinflation than markets hoped. Key drivers cited include elevated services inflation linked to strong wage growth, sticky goods inflation despite improving supply chains, and continued upward pressure from housing costs. Official ONS figures are due later this month, but business surveys and price trackers point to limited progress. Geopolitical risk is a major complicating factor. Escalation tied to Iran is expected to add upward pressure via energy markets and shipping costs. The article notes higher volatility in oil prices, with Brent crude futures testing higher levels. Since the UK is a net energy importer, sustained oil strength could lift transportation and production costs and filter through to consumer prices. It also highlights that roughly 20% of global oil shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, while regional insurance costs have already risen. For the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the dilemma is clear: sticky domestic inflation argues for staying restrictive, while external shocks could delay the return to target inflation. Recent MPC minutes are described as showing heightened attention to international developments, and market pricing implies the first interest-rate cut may come later than previously expected. Compared with other major economies, the UK is framed as more sticky than the US (which is disinflating faster) and broadly similar to the Eurozone, reflecting energy-import exposure and labor-market dynamics. For crypto traders, the takeaway is that persistent UK CPI inflation and renewed energy risk raise the odds of tighter-for-longer policy, which can pressure risk assets through higher real rates and volatility in macro conditions.

XRP is holding steady near $1.41, with muted market volumes and low volatility. The article says buyers and sellers remain cautious, keeping XRP confined to a narrow support/resistance corridor. Analysts warn that this price “compression” often precedes a sharp repricing. If XRP breaks out from the current range, traders could see sudden swings in either direction, increasing the need for tight risk management. In the near term, sentiment is mixed because there is no clear dominance from either side, so XRP may stay stuck in a sideways phase for longer before making a decisive move. Longer term, sustained consolidation could still set up a faster, more volatile trend once a catalyst or technical level break occurs. The piece frames XRP as the market is “waiting for clear direction,” highlighting that a breakdown or upside breakout would likely trigger pronounced price action.

USD/JPY trades with a cautiously bullish technical bias in early 2025, holding below the key 159.00 resistance zone. Technicals: Price is consolidating between 157.50 and 159.00. The pair remains above the 50-day and 200-day EMA, while RSI sits around 58—bullish momentum without being overbought. The Ichimoku Cloud also supports the upside view. MACD shows bullish crossover conditions. Still, traders expect rejection risk near 159.00 due to prior failed attempts. Key levels: Resistance is clustered at 159.00–159.50. Support is seen at 157.80–158.00, then stronger support around 156.40–156.60 (200-day EMA and a 38.2% Fibonacci level). A break above 159.50 could extend gains toward 160.00, a level last tested in late 2022. Fundamentals: The primary driver is monetary policy divergence. The Bank of Japan stays highly accommodative (Ueda stresses support until sustainable wage growth), keeping JGB yields capped near the central bank’s upper limit. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve signals a patient approach and policymakers remain cautious on services inflation. Markets reportedly price roughly 50 bps of Fed easing for 2025. Japan intervention risk: Authorities monitor volatility and have previously intervened around 160.00 (2024). Recent comments suggest Japan could act if moves become disorderly, though intervention likelihood may fall with broader G7 alignment. Positioning: COT data shows USD/JPY futures are net-long, with leveraged funds at the largest bullish bets since 2022. Options demand for calls above 160.00 adds upside skew, but also raises reversal risk if rates/risk sentiment shift. Overall, the USD/JPY outlook remains bullish while it stays below 159.00, with near-term consolidation likely and direction dependent on Fed/BOJ messaging, yield expectations, and risk sentiment.

Gold price rally accelerated on March 13, 2025, with spot gold surging to a record $4,600/oz. The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) fixed gold at $4,598.75, up more than 4.2% in the session. COMEX April futures peaked near $4,607.40, while trading volumes rose 187% above the 30-day average, pointing to strong institutional buying. The catalyst was diplomatic progress: verified statements from Geneva sources suggest the US and Iran agreed on a preliminary framework to de-escalate tensions, with a joint communique expected within 72 hours. Analysts link the news to a reduction in long-tail inflation risks tied to Middle East conflict and potential oil-price shocks. In parallel, Brent crude futures fell about 3.8% to around $78/barrel. Market pricing shifted toward a less aggressive Federal Reserve. Commentary highlights a drop in inflation expectations (including a lower 5-year breakeven rate). CME FedWatch data showed the implied probability of a 50-basis-point hike for the May meeting fell from 42% to 18%, while the odds of pausing rose to 65%. With fewer rate hikes expected, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold eased—fueling the gold price rally. Key indicators moved quickly: gold spot rose to roughly $4,600 (+4.19% vs. $4,415 the prior day), Brent dropped to ~$78 (-3.82%), the US 10-year yield slipped to ~4.08% (from ~4.25%), and the dollar index weakened. Traders will watch whether the ceasefire framework is formally verified, plus next week’s US CPI/PPI and Fed communications. A confirmed diplomatic outcome could support a higher gold trading range; any reversal in talks could trigger a sharp pullback.

Wintermute says Bitcoin has reclaimed the $70,000 level as the geopolitical risk premium tied to the Middle East cools off and Brent crude sharply retraces. With Brent falling from its war-era highs, market worries around inflation, supply disruption, and global growth pressure eased, helping risk assets rebound. The report links the shift to U.S. signals after Trump proposed a five-day pause on further actions against Iran, reducing crude’s geo-risk premium and lifting overall risk appetite. Reuters/other outlets reported similar moves: Brent’s 5-month futures gave back gains after the de-escalation signal, trading around $96/bbl at time of writing, while WTI rose modestly. Wintermute frames this as a macro-led trade: when oil spikes on escalation fears, Bitcoin often sells off; when oil retreats and equities/risk assets recover, Bitcoin quickly regains lost ground. After the move back above $70K, Bitcoin remains volatile, with the article citing Binance data for recent intraday range. Wintermute’s near-term focus is the next few days: if Brent stabilizes near $100 and diplomacy holds, Bitcoin could challenge $74K–$76K and potentially trend toward $80K. If negotiations fail or Hormuz shipping risks re-tighten, oil could jump again, pushing Bitcoin back toward the $60K mid-support zone.

UK CPI data for February 2025 shows persistent inflation well above the Bank of England’s 2% target. The report keeps annual inflation elevated for the 28th consecutive month, adding pressure on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to maintain restrictive policy. Core inflation also cooled only slightly, suggesting “last-mile” disinflation remains difficult. Key drivers include sticky services inflation, still-high food prices, and mixed goods inflation. The article links the slowdown challenge to post-pandemic dynamics: earlier supply-chain and energy shocks, plus a tight labour market that sustains wage growth. Financial markets reacted quickly. Government bond yields ticked higher as investors move toward a “higher for longer” interest-rate outlook. Sterling saw modest strength on sustained rate differentials, while rate-sensitive equities turned more cautious. Economists highlighted that services inflation is uncomfortably persistent, and several banks shifted expectations for the first BoE rate cut later into 2025. The next MPC steps are expected to rely on incoming wage growth, services PMI, and business inflation expectations, alongside the MPC’s updated projections. For traders, the core takeaway is that UK CPI remains a hawkish macro catalyst: it can tighten financial conditions, lift yields, and pressure risk assets until inflation convincingly trends down.

Fluid Protocol has repaid about $70M of unauthorized USR stablecoin debt linked to the Resolv Protocol exploit. The hack enabled attackers to mint roughly $80M worth of USR, which later spread into connected DeFi markets, including those on Fluid Protocol. Fluid Protocol says the repayment covered the major liability across both the BNB Chain and the Plasma blockchain. The team expects to clear the remaining balance in the coming days. It will also use an on-chain governance proposal to move the rest of the unresolved USR debt to a team-controlled multisignature wallet for final settlement with Resolv Protocol, subject to token-holder approval. Operationally, Fluid Protocol reports that all lending and borrowing markets continue to function normally, reducing near-term systemic risk. The protocol also plans to announce a detailed user compensation plan for affected participants. From a market perspective, this is a fast, governance-led remediation after a cross-protocol stablecoin minting incident. Compared with past DeFi events (e.g., Compound’s 2021 token distribution issue and Aave’s 2022 stability disruptions), Fluid Protocol’s $70M debt repayment within weeks suggests improving treasury, risk controls, and crisis response patterns in DeFi.