The four-year anniversary of the Bitcoin cycle high from November 10, 2021 offers critical insights for traders. Head of Research at CryptoQuant Julio Moreno highlights this milestone as a benchmark for price analysis. Market cycles—accumulation, uptrend, distribution and downtrend—tend to align with Bitcoin’s four-year halving schedule. Historical data show each Bitcoin cycle high surpasses the last, creating key support and resistance levels. Analyzing the Bitcoin cycle high helps traders gauge current market position and potential price swings. Factors such as institutional adoption, regulatory shifts and macroeconomic trends now differ markedly from 2021, underscoring the need for adaptable strategies. This cycle anniversary serves as a reminder that patience and disciplined risk management remain essential. Traders can use this historical framework to spot potential entry points and assess future market phases.
Bitcoin has struggled to sustain a recovery after last month’s crash, rising briefly above $107K before dipping below $105K. Senior strategist George Mandres dubs this move a “dead cat bounce,” citing profit-taking by large holders and forced liquidations as ongoing selling catalysts. Market momentum remains muted: futures open interest stands at $68 billion versus October’s $94 billion peak, and funding rates hover near neutral. Technically, Bitcoin trades below its 200-day moving average (~$110K), a threshold for a sustainable uptrend. Despite hopes of a US government reopening lifting risk assets, Bitcoin ETF inflows have stalled. Key support levels to watch are $103K, $86K and $82K (100-week MA). A break below $103K could trigger a drop to $86K, while $82K may offer deeper support.
Bitcoin gift tax rules help traders manage crypto taxes effectively. Bitcoin gift tax is governed by IRS property rules, so gifting BTC is not a taxable event at transfer. For 2025, individuals can gift up to $19,000 per recipient (or $38,000 for married couples) without filing Form 709. Gifts to U.S. citizen spouses are unlimited; non-citizen spouses have a $190,000 annual exclusion. Transfers above these thresholds require Form 709 but incur no gift tax unless the $13.99 million lifetime exemption is exceeded. Recipients inherit the donor’s original cost basis and holding period, with gains calculated on the donor’s basis and losses on fair market value under the dual-basis rule. Proper documentation—transfer dates, fair market value, wallet details, and transaction IDs—is vital. Avoid pitfalls like misvaluing transfers, disguising sales, selling crypto before gifting, or misclassifying services. For tax-efficient Bitcoin gifts, execute direct wallet-to-wallet transfers and consult a tax professional for high-value or cross-border transfers.
Following co-founder Eli Ben-Sasson’s Ztarknet proposal to integrate a STARK proof validator into Zcash’s mainnet, Starknet’s STRK token has rallied over 25–30%, reaching $0.19 with trading volume surpassing $800 million. The plan aims to preserve Zcash’s on-chain privacy and security on Ethereum Layer-2 while enhancing speed and programmability. DeFi researchers highlight that protocol-level privacy on Starknet supports private transfers across dApps without mixers. STRK recorded the second-highest monthly inflows among Layer-1 and Layer-2 tokens after Arbitrum, reflecting strong demand. Coupled with ongoing Starknet protocol upgrades and a new Bitcoin-focused financial platform, this convergence of Zcash privacy tools and Starknet scalability is boosting interest in Layer-2 privacy solutions and could shape future dApp development. Traders should watch STRK and ZEC for sustained volatility as adoption and alliance prospects drive market momentum.
Bullish
STRKZcashLayer-2 PrivacyZero-Knowledge ProofsdApp Development
Shiba Inu (SHIB) has stabilized around $0.000010–$0.000012, supported by its Shibarium Layer-2 network and ongoing token burns. However, its high supply and market cap limit 100× upside. Many SHIB holders are exploring AlphaPepe (ALPE), a BNB Chain meme-coin presale that offers instant token delivery, staking rewards, and transparent growth mechanics. AlphaPepe’s smart contract audit by BlockSAFU scored 10/10 and liquidity will be locked at launch. The presale’s weekly price increments and a 10% referral bonus incentivize early participation. With over 3,500 holders and a USDT rewards pool distributing $9,000, AlphaPepe combines community virality with tangible incentives. Traders are now balancing their portfolios: keeping SHIB for stability while allocating to AlphaPepe’s potential for outsized returns.
Onchain Lens data highlights a significant Binance BTC withdrawal. A new wallet first moved 584.72 BTC off Binance. After two months of dormancy, the whale withdrew another 100 BTC. The whale’s total holdings now reach 300 BTC, with an unrealized loss of $2.4M. Combined outflows of 684.72 BTC reduce Binance’s BTC supply, historically tightening market liquidity and creating bullish pressure on Bitcoin prices. Traders should follow Binance BTC withdrawal signals and on-chain whale movements to assess liquidity shifts and market sentiment. However, large outflows don’t always trigger immediate price rallies. Stay alert for further whale activity and volatility indicators.
Six leading no-KYC crypto casinos now deliver instant withdrawals and robust privacy for players. CoinCasino, BC.Game, Rollbit, BetPanda, Cloudbet and Bitsler top the list. Each crypto casino supports major cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH and stablecoins, plus altcoins (SOL, ADA, DOGE, PEPE). They also offer provably fair games and generous bonuses. BC.Game excels in altcoin variety. Rollbit blends gaming with NFTs and crypto trading. BetPanda uses the Lightning Network for sub-minute BTC payouts. Cloudbet suits high rollers with $2,200 no-KYC limits. Bitsler targets casual gamblers with low-minimum withdrawals. These no-KYC crypto casinos guarantee instant withdrawals within minutes. Licenses in Curaçao and Anjouan ensure regulatory oversight. Key safety tips include verifying domains, using self-custody wallets, and setting withdrawal alerts. Future trends point to broader Lightning and Solana payments, AI risk monitoring, and non-custodial gaming. Traders can use these platforms to quickly move liquidity and capitalize on time-sensitive opportunities.
Matrixport’s latest analysis identifies a clear Bitcoin short-term downtrend driven by a sharp drop in daily trading volume—from $352 billion to $178 billion—despite total crypto market capitalization rising from $2.4 trillion to $3.7 trillion over the past year. On-chain metrics point to weakening network activity, fewer transactions, and shifting holder behavior, signaling reduced liquidity and growing investor caution. Matrixport recommends a conservative investment approach during this downtrend, advising dollar-cost averaging, clear stop-loss levels, portfolio diversification and close monitoring of key support zones. Historical Bitcoin cycles show that short-term corrections can pave the way for future rallies, offering disciplined traders strategic entry points amid market volatility.
Plasma XPL stablecoin has moved its custody operations to Anchorage Digital, one of the few crypto firms with a US federal bank charter. The transfer aims to deliver banking-grade security and ensure compliance with US financial regulations. According to the project’s announcement, the custody shift will complete within 48 hours and require no action from existing token holders. Anchorage Digital’s regulated infrastructure reduces counterparty risk and boosts institutional confidence. It also offers enhanced asset protection and clearer regulatory oversight for US-based users. The timing coincides with rising scrutiny of digital asset projects by federal authorities. By selecting a chartered custodian, Plasma XPL signals its commitment to robust security practices and transparent governance. This strategic move may set a precedent for other stablecoin issuers seeking mainstream adoption. Market participants can expect improved liquidity as institutional investors become more comfortable with regulated custody. Traders should watch for potential volatility around the 48-hour transition. Overall, the custody transfer strengthens Plasma XPL’s position in the competitive stablecoin market.
Binance mock trading feature now offers $5,000 in virtual funds for both beginners and advanced users. The Binance mock trading platform replicates spot and futures markets, complete with real-time order books and performance tracking. Users can test strategies risk-free, build confidence, and gain hands-on experience with crypto trading. By lowering entry barriers, the mock trading initiative aims to boost user engagement and prepare traders for live markets, potentially increasing trading volumes and liquidity on Binance.
Dogecoin (DOGE) rose by 10% last week, trading around $0.182. On the daily chart, DOGE broke a descending trendline. The MACD line crossed above its signal, showing growing momentum. In the 4-hour timeframe, an inverse head and shoulders pattern led to a breakout and successful retest above $0.18. A cup and handle on the 12-hour chart suggests further upside. The measured move from these patterns targets $0.211. Analysts note that Dogecoin must clear resistance near $0.185 to confirm bullish continuation. On Binance, top traders hold 77.8% long positions, and sentiment indicators remain positive. DOGE trades between $0.177 and $0.184, with support at $0.18. Meanwhile, the Bitwise spot DOGE ETF is in a 20-day automatic approval countdown, potentially becoming the first US-based DOGE ETF. A successful launch could boost liquidity and institutional demand.
Daily active Ethereum validators fell below one million to 999,203, a 10% decline since July. The record 37-day unstaking wait time has dampened staking incentives and raised liquidity concerns. Contributing factors include market volatility, high node operational costs and attractive alternative investments. A shrinking validator set risks network decentralization, consensus finality and overall security under Ethereum’s Proof-of-Stake. To address the Ethereum validators decline, developers plan upgrades for improved staking mechanisms, reduced node requirements, enhanced rewards and better liquidity options for staked ETH.
Sonic Labs CEO Michael Demeter unveiled a long-term growth plan centered on real-world utility and disciplined execution. Sonic Labs will expand into the U.S. market with a New York office to strengthen institutional outreach and policy engagement. The roadmap includes a new fee monetization model featuring tiered rewards for builders and validators, coupled with increased token burn to bolster deflationary tokenomics.
The strategy leverages Sonic Labs’ strong treasury to fund sustainable growth rather than speculation. Builders will earn based on generated transactions, validators will receive fixed network rewards, and token holders benefit from a shrinking supply. Partner platform GMSonic will evolve into an educational hub to drive global adoption.
Future Sonic Improvement Proposals will focus on real-world integration, interoperability, and potential ETF-related opportunities. Demeter emphasized that a healthy, usage-driven token price reflects ecosystem strength. This disciplined approach aims to transform Sonic Labs into a long-term value engine for developers, validators, and investors.
Bullish
Sonic LabsLayer-1 BlockchainReal-World UtilityTokenomicsU.S. Expansion
Analysts now agree Bitcoin price has begun its third wave of Elliott Wave expansion. According to Gert Van Lagen, BTC rebounded from the 40-week SMA, signaling the end of Wave II and the onset of Wave III. This expansion targets a range of $200,000 to $240,000. Crypto trader Jelle points out resistance at the midpoint of a long-term ascending channel. A clear breakout here could open upside to $350,000. Macro researcher Sminston With highlights a recent uptick in US PMI. This suggests a risk-on rotation that may boost high-growth assets like Bitcoin. On-chain data shows Bitcoin has filled the CME gap at $100K and is retesting $105K. Meanwhile, futures open interest and average order sizes have declined, indicating reduced whale activity. Notably, clusters of long liquidations near key levels have historically preceded price recoveries. A sustained rebound above $105K would reinforce Bitcoin’s bullish trend. Traders should monitor support at $105K, watch for channel breakouts, and track macro catalysts.
Since early 2025, the crypto industry has seen an unprecedented surge in crypto M&A activity. According to RootData, year-to-date crypto M&A deals reached 143, a 93% increase from the previous year. Major exchanges like Kraken and Coinbase spearhead this wave. Kraken’s $1.5 billion acquisition of futures platform NinjaTrader and Coinbase’s consecutive takeovers of derivatives exchange Deribit and on-chain fundraising service Echo illustrate how top players use acquisitions to fill ecosystem gaps in derivatives, payments and custody services.
This crypto M&A trend is fueled by depressed market valuations and a strict regulatory environment. By acquiring firms with existing licenses, industry leaders fast-track compliance and expand offerings without lengthy in-house development. The strategy not only accelerates market consolidation but also offers Web3 startups a more stable exit path beyond token listings or IPOs, boosting investor confidence in early-stage projects.
Traditional financial institutions including Robinhood, Mastercard, Stripe and SoftBank now enter the crypto space via strategic acquisitions. This shift is transforming the sector from trading-driven to service-driven, paving the way for a one-stop financial ecosystem. Although integration challenges and valuation risks remain, the current M&A surge marks a pivotal step toward industry maturity and mainstream adoption.
Huobi HTX has launched its HTX Team Race as part of the annual Summit Race, offering a 400,000 USDT prize pool split equally between spot and derivatives channels. Registration runs from November 11–26 (UTC+8), requiring teams of 5–100 members with at least 100 USDT per account. The trading phase lasts from November 26 to December 16 (UTC+8), during which the top 20 teams by total volume in each channel share a 200,000 USDT pool. Team captains receive 10% of their pool, and remaining rewards are allocated based on individual trading volumes. New users also benefit from welcome gifts, including fee cashback coupons, interest coupons, free contract positions and grid trading credits. The competition aims to boost global market engagement, reward strategic execution and amplify HTX token usage.
Bullish
Huobi HTXTeam Racecrypto trading competitionUSDT prize poolspot and derivatives trading
A new World Bank report reveals that nearly three billion people still lack digital ID, cutting them off from essential services and widening the global digital divide. Sub-Saharan Africa has national ID coverage of 80%, but only 32% use digital ID and just 23% deploy it for services. Nigeria, Ghana and Senegal have launched digital ID initiatives, while Europe and North America lead with adoption rates up to 81% in Turkey. The World Bank urges prioritizing birth registrations and building trust in digital ID systems. In parallel, China is rolling out biometric border clearance at major ports and land crossings with Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. Face-swiping, fingerprint and iris scans at Shanghai, Xiamen, Guangzhou and Shenzhen checkpoints aim to speed immigration. China’s RealDID blockchain-based ID and AI-driven student ID pilots underline its push toward a comprehensive digital ID ecosystem.
Neutral
Digital IDBiometricsChinaWorld BankBorder Clearance
The US government shutdown appears set to end after a Senate-approved stopgap spending bill and an imminent House vote. The Senate’s action sparked a short-lived Wall Street rebound, but gains stalled as AI stocks cooled and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 2.48%. While funding is now extended until January 30, investors worry about a repeat showdown, injecting fresh political risk. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the shutdown shaved roughly $18 billion off Q4 GDP, with potential long-term losses near $7 billion and dampened corporate and consumer spending. Fintech Weekly warns that reduced regulatory staffing has delayed key approvals, creating potential oversight gaps for regional banks and fintech firms amid a tightening cycle. Crypto traders should note that shutdown-related market volatility and liquidity constraints may amplify short-term swings, but longer-term positions face headwinds until fiscal clarity and regulatory stability return.
Neutral
government shutdownmarket volatilityfiscal impactregulatory riskinvestor sentiment
Brazil’s Central Bank has unveiled new crypto regulations requiring all Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs) to register as Sociedades Prestadores de Serviços de Ativos Virtuais (SPSAVs) by February 2026. Under these crypto regulations, firms must meet minimum capital requirements starting at US$2 million, with specialized activities demanding up to US$11 million. The rules also integrate stablecoin operations into foreign-exchange oversight and cap unauthorized cross-border transfers at US$100,000. Entities have a nine-month transition period, with a full compliance deadline set for November 2026. Non-compliant firms face operational suspension. The framework strengthens AML/KYC protocols and is designed to reduce money laundering and market fraud. Brazil’s move marks its most detailed crypto regulations to date and aims to align digital-asset services with established banking standards, potentially setting a global benchmark for secure and transparent crypto markets.
South Korean economists urge caution on won stablecoin legalization, highlighting risks of coin runs, money laundering and regulatory gaps. A Korean Economic Association survey shows 37.1% support won stablecoin for payment innovation, while 30% question its necessity. 58.1% favor a hybrid issuance by banks and qualified non-bank institutions; 35.5% support bank-only issuance. Experts recommend gradual implementation via pilot programs, rigorous stress tests and robust oversight to safeguard financial stability. Proper regulation could reduce transaction costs, speed up settlements, boost financial inclusion and strengthen cross-border trade. Clear frameworks and independent oversight are essential to balance innovation and security in South Korea’s digital currency strategy.
Neutral
Won StablecoinSouth KoreaStablecoin RegulationDigital CurrencyFinancial Stability
Aerodrome Finance’s AERO token surged over 10% in 24 hours, reclaiming the $1 level and breaking above the critical $1.20 resistance. Weekly gains climbed 44%, driven by strong momentum in Base ecosystem tokens such as UNI, VIRTUAL and KTA. Open Interest jumped from $6.96M to $10M, while a bullish MACD crossover and rising moving averages signal continued upward pressure. On-chain metrics show holder addresses rising from 670.6K to 682.3K, daily active users at 51.6K and trade counts hitting a three-year peak with over 5.2M daily transactions. Total Value Locked on Aerodrome Finance stood at $472M, with $697K on Aerostrategy, and deflationary veAERO staking burning tokens to tighten supply. Traders should watch the $1.20 support zone for AERO token: holding it could pave the way to the $1.58 seasonal high, while a drop below may trigger a swift pullback. Monitor Base ecosystem momentum, Open Interest trends and veAERO lock-up dynamics for further upside signals.
Recent U.S. dollar liquidity constraints are reshaping the crypto ecosystem, from stablecoin reserves to trading market makers. As the Federal Reserve considers ending quantitative tightening or expanding its balance sheet to relieve systemic liquidity stress, repo market usage and SRF borrowings have surged, driving up short-term funding costs. Crypto exchanges and market makers, reliant on these channels, now face heightened risks of sudden liquidity withdrawal.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury market’s limited depth and elevated instant impact costs pose challenges for dollar-pegged stablecoins and institutional traders holding short-term Treasuries as “safe” reserves. Proposed stablecoin regulations, including the GENIUS framework, would demand higher asset quality and transparency, increasing compliance costs and squeezing yields. Political events, such as a potential government shutdown, may further amplify or alleviate funding pressures in the short term.
Key impacts for crypto firms include: 1) reduced market-making and leverage float as funding costs rise; 2) tighter stablecoin reserve management balancing liquidity, yield, and regulatory compliance; 3) increased demand for transparency and regular stress testing by exchanges and custodians to maintain market confidence.
Recommendations: maintain conservative cash and high-quality short-term bond pools, institutionalize stress tests, publish reserve proofs, and engage proactively with regulators. Traders should prepare for more frequent liquidity shocks, favouring assets that are highly liquid, transparent, and quickly convertible.
Bearish
US Dollar LiquidityCrypto MarketStablecoinsRepo MarketRegulatory Compliance
DeFi is entering a new phase of sustainable growth as on-chain infrastructure matures and value capture models evolve. Leading protocols are enhancing cross-chain and multi-VM support to improve transaction speed and lower fees. Injective Protocol now offers sub-second block times in both WASM and EVM environments, while major platforms secure institutional financing for high-performance trading rails. Meanwhile, economic models are shifting from inflationary token incentives to deflationary mechanisms and cash flow distributions. Uniswap’s “Unification” proposal illustrates this trend, aligning governance tokens with real-world revenue and token burn processes. Regulatory clarity and security remain focal points: the SEC’s “safe harbor” discussions aim to distinguish pure protocol tools from centralized intermediaries, while $150 billion in locked value highlights the urgency of robust audits. Traders should watch for protocols that deliver true usage-driven revenue, cross-chain resilience, and strong compliance frameworks — key drivers for the next bullish wave in DeFi.
US Solana spot ETFs have recorded 11 straight days of net inflows since their October 28 debut, accumulating $350 million. On Nov 11, these Solana spot ETF products saw $7.98 million in new inflows, led by Grayscale’s GSOL with $5.93 million and Bitwise’s BSOL with $2.05 million. Combined assets under management reached $568 million, with a Solana NAV ratio of 0.64%. This pattern of Solana spot ETF inflows may tighten SOL supply, boost liquidity, and drive upward price momentum. In comparison, Bitcoin ETFs saw only a modest $1.15 million inflow and Ethereum ETFs posted zero flows, indicating growing trader interest in Solana and bullish sentiment for SOL.
Crypto futures liquidations surged to $427 million over a 24-hour period, driven by massive long-position unwindings amid extreme volatility. Longs accounted for $293 million versus $134 million in shorts. Bitcoin futures saw around $113 million liquidated, with 84.86% of positions long, while Ethereum faced roughly $90.4 million wiped out at a 90.26% long ratio. Updated figures show Bitcoin and Ethereum liquidations reaching $114 million and $108 million, respectively. Zcash liquidations also hit $38.22 million, 74.85% from long bets. These crypto futures liquidations underscore the risks of leveraged trading and can signal potential trend reversals. Traders should manage risk with proper position sizing, stop-loss orders, and by monitoring funding rates and market sentiment.
The Bank of England has launched a landmark stablecoin regulation consultation, proposing to treat GBP-backed stablecoins as e-money tokens for retail payments up to £20,000. Under the draft rules, issuers would need an e-money license, maintain 1:1 fiat reserves, guarantee redemption on demand and comply with AML/KYC requirements. Transactions above £20,000 would fall outside e-money rules and face additional oversight. Developed in coordination with the FCA, the framework aims to safeguard financial stability, protect consumers and foster innovation in crypto payments. The consultation runs until January 2024 and will shape the final e-money regulation. By introducing clear stablecoin regulation, the BoE seeks to align with global standards like the EU’s MiCA, enhance market confidence and support the growth of digital payment solutions.
Neutral
Stablecoin RegulationBank of EnglandE-MoneyCrypto PaymentsFinancial Stability
Ripple is targeting Wall Street with a new crypto strategy to integrate XRP into traditional financial workflows. The company spent around $4 billion on acquisitions, including institutional credit network Hidden Road and stablecoin-powered platform Rail, to enhance its blockchain infrastructure. CEO Brad Garlinghouse says Ripple will slow further acquisitions and focus on integrating existing assets. The plan aims to drive institutional adoption of the XRP Ledger and launch new product lines for banks and financial institutions. By modernizing legacy systems with blockchain, Ripple hopes to boost XRP utility and trading activity among institutional investors. This strategic move positions Ripple to compete at the center of institutional crypto services and marks a significant step in merging digital assets with conventional finance.
Bullish
Ripple LabsWall Street IntegrationXRP AdoptionInstitutional CryptoBlockchain Acquisitions
The Federal Reserve is divided over a potential December rate cut, with hawks focused on inflation risks and doves urging lower interest rates to sustain growth amid slowing inflation and tariff pressures. Market participants, expecting a Fed rate cut, have priced in lower borrowing costs—potentially lifting risk assets like cryptocurrencies—yet incomplete economic data from the U.S. government shutdown introduces uncertainty. Key indicators—slowing inflation trends, mixed employment figures and persistent global trade tensions—fuel the debate. Traders should monitor Fed rate cut discussions and statements closely, as a cut may boost crypto prices by reducing yields on safer assets, whereas a hold could strengthen the dollar and increase market volatility. Strategies include portfolio diversification, tracking policy updates and analyzing past rate decisions’ effects on markets. This ongoing Fed rate cut debate underscores the balance between economic stimulus and inflation control, with implications for crypto traders navigating interest rate shifts and market volatility.
Neutral
Federal ReserveRate CutCryptocurrency MarketMonetary PolicyMarket Volatility
Ethereum spot ETFs have experienced significant net outflows as investors adopt a risk-off stance. On October 20, these funds recorded $146 million in withdrawals, driven by escalating U.S. political tensions and a sharp ETH price decline. Bitcoin spot ETFs also saw $40.47 million pulled over a four-day span.
More recently, TraderT data show a historic $107.39 million net outflow on November 11. Grayscale Mini ETH led withdrawals with $75.75 million, followed by BlackRock’s ETHA at $19.99 million. No Ethereum spot ETFs saw inflows that day. These cumulative outflows—exceeding $250 million—highlight volatile market conditions and shifting institutional sentiment. Traders should track ETH ETF flows and U.S. policy updates closely, as sustained withdrawal trends could influence ETH price action and broader crypto market dynamics.