alltrending-24htrending-weektrending-monthtrending-year

Latest Crypto News | Bitcoin, Ethereum and Altcoin Updates

JPM Says Bitcoin Outperforms Gold in Iran War; BTC Flows Rise, Gold/Silver ETFs See Outflows

|
According to JPM analysts cited by The Block, during the Iran war period Bitcoin showed stronger “safe-haven” behavior than gold and silver. While gold and silver faced large capital outflows and position reductions, Bitcoin saw net inflows and higher activity. Key figures: gold ETFs have recorded nearly $11 billion outflows in the first three weeks of March; silver ETFs have fully reversed prior inflows since last summer. In parallel, Bitcoin displayed net inflow. Mechanism: JPM notes a surge in Iran’s crypto activity after hostilities. Local residents reportedly moved funds from domestic exchanges to self-custody wallets and international platforms. Traders highlight Bitcoin’s borderless and 24/7 trading features, which can make it a preferred tool during economic instability, currency pressure, and capital controls. Positioning and liquidity: gold and silver futures positions have fallen sharply since January, while Bitcoin futures open interest stayed relatively stable. Market breadth also improved for Bitcoin, surpassing gold. Market takeaway for traders: the relative rotation toward Bitcoin versus traditional hedges could support BTC relative strength, especially if geopolitical risk keeps driving on-chain/off-exchange fund migration.
Bullish
Bitcoin(BTC)Geopolitical RiskETF FlowsSafe-Haven NarrativeIran Conflict

Ethereum network growth: daily transactions surge as ETH nears $2,200

|
On-chain data cited by CryptoQuant analysts shows Ethereum network activity accelerating. CryptoQuant contributor “CW” says daily transaction counts on Ethereum are rising exponentially, suggesting stronger user engagement with DeFi, transfers, and on-chain services. This comes alongside renewed ETH price strength as Ethereum moves toward the $2,200 area. Separately, another CryptoQuant author, “Darkfost,” highlights ETH’s position relative to the short-term realized price. ETH is trading around $2,150–$2,120, close to the realized price zone near ~$2,300, which can act as a key resistance and psychological barrier. At the time of writing, ETH is reported near $2,117 (down over 2% in 24h) with volume down more than 7%—a sign of short-term cooling even as network usage remains elevated. For traders, the key takeaway is that Ethereum’s fundamentals (daily transaction growth) are improving while ETH price approaches a notable resistance band. This could support a rebound if buyers defend levels around the realized price, but traders should watch for rejection near ~$2,300 and for any reversal in on-chain activity.
Bullish
EthereumETH on-chain metricsCryptoQuantrealized price resistanceDeFi activity

Altcoin Season Hinges on Falling VC Funding and Liquidity

|
Crypto markets are seeing “Altcoin season” depend more on venture capital (VC) funding trends as capital availability tightens. The article cites a sharp VC pullback: funding falling to about $26B from $66B (2020–2022), while the average crypto project raise rises to around $37M at higher valuations. It argues VC money matters because it helps fund salaries, infrastructure, and—critically—market making, which supports liquidity during token launches. When teams and airdrop recipients sell into early pools, VC-backed liquidity can absorb the pressure and stabilize early trading. The piece also highlights a historic multiplier dynamic for Bitcoin: Bank of America estimated a 118x effect where $93M inflows increased market value by $11B, driven by limited circulating supply and strong holding/lockup behavior. For smaller altcoins, the article expects this price impact to be stronger because order books are thinner and liquidity pools are smaller. With reduced VC funding, the near-term effect is weaker liquidity support during downturns, higher volatility, and slower absorption of early sell pressure from token vesting/staking and airdrops. Longer-term, the same funding squeeze is linked to project closures and survival risk for venture-dependent teams—potentially limiting the depth and breadth of the next Altcoin season.
Bearish
Altcoin SeasonVenture Capital (VC) FundingCrypto LiquidityToken ValuationsMarket Making

Singapore Economic Growth Risk Falls in UOB 2025 Analysis

|
UOB’s latest assessment says Singapore economic growth risks have tilted lower for 2025, citing improved stability across multiple indicators. The bank’s charts compare early-2025 data with prior periods and show reduced vulnerability to external shocks, stronger domestic fundamentals, and better risk metrics. Key areas highlighted in the Singapore economic growth review include: - Trade and market volatility: declining exposure to external cycles and improved conditions for trade-dependent sectors. - Sector resilience: manufacturing shows steadiness, especially electronics, biomedical manufacturing, and precision engineering. Construction also shows recovery signs. - Domestic demand and jobs: UOB points to strengthening consumption patterns and a resilient labor market, with unemployment staying below long-term averages and wage growth outpacing inflation. - Policy support: monetary policy remains focused on medium-term price stability via the exchange-rate framework, while fiscal measures back vulnerable industries. The outlook also factors in the external environment. ASEAN integration is framed as a buffer against global volatility, while supply-chain restructuring supports logistics and energy/commodity price moderation helps import costs. For crypto traders, the main implication is macro: a lower-risk Singapore economic growth backdrop can support broader risk sentiment (especially for regional assets), but it is not a direct crypto catalyst. Watch for follow-through in liquidity, regional capital flows, and any changes in trade/volatility indicators that could shift risk-on/risk-off quickly.
Neutral
Singapore economic growthUOB macro analysisfinancial services resiliencemanufacturing & jobsrisk indicators

APAC FX Analysis: BNY Mellon flags inflation channels and valuation gaps

|
BNY Mellon’s APAC FX analysis highlights how different “inflation channels” are driving divergent monetary-policy responses across Asia-Pacific. Imported energy inflation is especially important for net-importers such as Japan and South Korea. Domestic food-price shocks are more central for economies like India and the Philippines. The report also notes core-versus-headline inflation divergence: in several countries, core inflation remains sticky even as headline inflation eases, keeping normalization timelines uneven. Service-sector inflation is described as particularly persistent in developed APAC markets. Alongside inflation, APAC FX analysis quantifies widening valuation gaps in regional currencies. Using proprietary fair-value models (incorporating terms of trade, real interest-rate differentials, and external balances), BNY argues some North Asian currencies look overvalued relative to fundamentals amid export headwinds. It also points to potential undervaluation pockets in parts of Southeast Asia where domestic cycles may improve. Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) modeling suggests competitiveness shifts could create currency correction risk and opportunities. Policy divergence is a key catalyst. The Reserve Bank of Australia is portrayed as relatively hawkish (supportive for AUD), while the Bank of Japan remains cautious (weighing on JPY). China’s yuan management is framed as a dominant regional anchor, with managed flexibility creating both stabilizing effects and spillovers. BNY links these dynamics to real flows: overvalued currencies can hurt export competitiveness, while depreciation combined with import-led inflation can push policymakers toward a difficult stagflation mix. Valuation gaps may attract longer-term investment into undervalued regions, but currency volatility can deter short-term portfolio flows. The report references weakening historical correlations (e.g., commodity-price links to producer currencies) and advises monitoring high-frequency inflation indicators (freight rates, semiconductor prices, and PMI input prices) for FX momentum signals.
Neutral
APAC FXInflation channelsValuation gapsAPAC monetary policy divergenceREER and currency risk

MSBT Bitcoin ETF Nears NYSE Launch as Fees Move Into Focus

|
Morgan Stanley’s proposed spot Bitcoin ETF, ticker MSBT (Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust), has received an NYSE Arca listing notice, a key step that often signals a near-term launch. The latest SEC filing describes MSBT as a physical spot bitcoin fund, intended to track BTC price without leverage or derivatives, with the fund expected to list on NYSE Arca and hold bitcoin directly. A seed structure of 50,000 shares (about $1 million) is outlined, but the issuer has not yet disclosed the fee in the public documents. Eric Balchunas (Bloomberg ETF analyst) expects the market to closely watch MSBT’s fee and estimates it at about 0.24%, compared with 0.25% for BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s spot Bitcoin ETF (FBTC). Even a 1-basis-point reduction would directly pressure the two largest existing U.S. Bitcoin ETF fee leaders. Traders should also note the scale advantage: BlackRock reports roughly $55.8B net assets for IBIT as of March 25, 2026, while Fidelity remains a major low-cost competitor. Morgan Stanley’s potential edge is distribution—its reported $9.3T in client assets across Wealth and Investment Management could widen mainstream access to this Bitcoin ETF. For market participants, MSBT’s progress adds another major Wall Street brand to the Bitcoin ETF race. More competition typically tightens fees and can increase inflows, though timing and the final stated fee will be immediate catalysts for sentiment.
Bullish
Spot Bitcoin ETFMSBTNYSE Arca ListingBitcoin ETF FeesBlackRock IBIT vs Fidelity FBTC

U.S. Dollar Rallies on Conflicting U.S.-Iran Peace Signals

|
The U.S. dollar surged against major currencies as U.S.-Iran peace talks delivered conflicting headlines. Early reports hinted at a possible framework deal and briefly pressured the U.S. dollar lower, but later official comments diverged: the U.S. State Department cited “ongoing, difficult discussions,” while Iranian media claimed imminent sanctions relief. That mismatch triggered a safe-haven bid. The DXY (dollar index) rose about 0.8% intraday, marking its strongest single-day gain in roughly three weeks. Treasury yields also climbed, reflecting shifting expectations around long-term U.S. stability. The U.S. dollar showed particular strength versus commodity-linked currencies and some emerging-market peers. The article links today’s market sensitivity to prior U.S.-Iran milestones. It notes that the 2015 JCPOA announcement coincided with crude oil softness and a weaker dollar, while the 2018 withdrawal reversed those trends. With uncertainty returning, traders again prioritized capital preservation. Mechanically, algorithmic trading may have amplified moves by rapidly switching signals as headlines changed. Broader effects appeared across assets: European equities trimmed gains, and gold traded choppily. Key drivers cited include sanctions-relief uncertainty, difficulty forecasting Middle East oil supply, and concerns about regional stability and shipping security. Institutional responses were cautious; some Asian central banks reportedly intervened to smooth volatility, while hedge funds reduced directional exposure and increased temporary dollar cash holdings. For traders, the core takeaway is clear: the U.S. dollar is benefiting from geopolitical confusion, and near-term crypto risk appetite may stay pressured while headlines remain inconsistent. Focus next on official U.S. and Iranian statements and related signals that could clarify sanctions and oil-supply expectations.
Bearish
U.S. DollarU.S.-Iran GeopoliticsForex VolatilitySanctions RiskCrypto Risk Appetite

Coinbase urges US to reform crypto tax rules as 1099 reporting explodes

|
Coinbase’s chief product officer Faryar Shirzad says US crypto tax rules are outdated and treating digital assets as “property” makes routine activity taxable. Coinbase is pushing lawmakers to reform crypto tax rules and reduce user compliance burdens. The exchange points to growing friction for traders and retail users. Coinbase reports a 34% jump in tax-related customer queries. It also warns that US broker reporting will create paperwork overload: millions of Form 1099-DAs are expected for the 2025 tax year, including many tied to very small transactions (many under $600, and some below $1). Coinbase argues this data volume is not improving clarity and may bury meaningful information. Shirzad highlights additional structural problems: users must track cost basis, calculate gains/losses, and report—even for items like gas fees and stablecoin transfers—while crypto’s fast movement across wallets and exchanges can create reporting gaps that brokers cannot fully fix. Coinbase estimates 63% of users have cost-basis record gaps, leading to overpayment or manual reconciliation. It suggests a de minimis exemption for small transactions, similar to other parts of the tax code. Separately, the article cites Dune data showing euro-pegged stablecoins accelerating after MiCA clarity: euro stablecoin supply rose from about $203M (Jan 2023) to ~$912M (Feb 2026), while holders grew from ~13K to 1M+. The piece also notes USDC and EURC as major players, with Tether’s USDT dominating the broader stablecoin market. For traders, the key takeaway is policy risk: if crypto tax rules remain complex, trading and on-platform activity could face slower adoption and more user churn. If reform advances, it could improve retail usability and liquidity over time.
Neutral
Coinbasecrypto tax rules1099-DAsstablecoinsregulation

AUD/USD Plunges Below 0.6900 on Middle East Risk-Off

|
AUD/USD in early Asian trading broke decisively below 0.6900, sliding about 1.7% as Middle East fears triggered a broad risk-off move. Traders rushed into the US dollar and safe havens, reinforcing USD strength across major pairs. Key technical levels now in focus: 0.6900 was the psychological and support “line in the sand.” After the breakdown, the pair tested support near 0.6850 (last seen since late 2024). Technical indicators turned bearish: RSI fell below 30 (oversold), and moving averages formed a “death cross” (50-day below 200-day), pointing to further downside pressure. The catalyst is renewed concern over Middle East security, which drives carry-trade unwinds and selling of growth/commodity-linked currencies like the AUD. This setup can become self-reinforcing: a stronger USD can pressure dollar-priced commodities, weighing on export-focused economies. Fundamentals also add to the AUD weakness. Australia faces headwinds from softer domestic demand, a cooling housing market, commodity price sensitivity (iron ore/coal off highs), narrowing yield differentials vs the US, and China growth concerns. With central banks diverging, the Fed’s hawkish bias supports the dollar, while the RBA’s more neutral-to-dovish stance removes a cushion for AUD during stress. Near-term outlook for AUD/USD depends on whether Middle East tensions de-escalate. Traders will watch support around 0.6850 and 0.6800, and resistance near the prior 0.6900–0.6920 zone. Volatility is expected to stay elevated as markets digest geopolitical and macro data; AUD/USD remains the focal risk gauge.
Bearish
AUD/USDUS dollar strengthrisk-offMiddle East geopoliticsFX technical breakdown

USD/THB Slips on Energy Shock as Commerzbank Flags Baht Risk

|
Commerzbank warns that global energy-market volatility is weighing on the Thai Baht, with the USD/THB exchange rate pressured by higher import costs. Thailand imports over half of its energy needs (crude oil and LNG), so disruptions worsen the trade balance; the current account reportedly turned negative in Q4 2024. The bank highlights a historical link: in the 2022 energy crisis, USD/THB rose above 37.00. Current conditions appear similar, and the report notes the Baht underperforms peers like the Singapore dollar during comparable shocks. Structurally, the impact is amplified because Thailand’s manufacturing and tourism depend on stable energy inputs. Commerzbank also notes the Bank of Thailand’s relatively hawkish bias, which may limit aggressive defense of the FX rate and keep inflation control as a priority—potentially allowing further Baht weakness. Using a multi-factor model (energy prices, trade flows, and capital movements), Commerzbank’s baseline projection for USD/THB in Q2 2025 is 36.50–37.50, assuming energy prices stabilize. It also flags upside risk if supply issues persist. Traders should track energy prices and Thai policy signals, since USD/THB sensitivity to the energy import bill is expected to remain a key near-term driver into 2025.
Neutral
USD/THBThai BahtEnergy pricesBank of ThailandFX risk

Bitcoin Slides as Iran Oil Shock Sends VIX to 27

|
U.S. markets sold off sharply as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions boosted oil prices and intensified risk-off sentiment. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped to 27.44, signaling expectations of more volatility. Equities fell across the board: the Dow slipped 1.01% to 45,960.11, the S&P 500 dropped 1.74% to 6,477.16, and the Nasdaq fell 2.38% to 21,408.08. WTI crude rose 2.2% to about $92.16, while Brent jumped 2.8% to around the $100 level. Treasury yields climbed across the curve (2-year to 3.96%, 10-year to 4.42%, 30-year to 4.93%). Safe-haven demand was mixed: gold fell about 3% to roughly $4,392/oz, and silver dropped 4%–6% to around $68.35/oz. Bitcoin, despite holding up better than some assets, declined roughly 2.5% to about $68,842 by 5 p.m. ET. Ethereum fell 4.4% to around $2,066. Analysts pointed to spot Bitcoin ETF inflows as a potential stabilizer, while also highlighting rising European sovereign-debt stress (France and Germany 10-year yields at 15-year highs) as a longer-term pressure factor. Risk takeaway for traders: the Iran-driven oil and rate shock is currently bearish for broad risk assets, while Bitcoin support from ETF demand may limit downside in the near term.
Neutral
BitcoinVIXIran oil shockSpot Bitcoin ETFEuropean debt risk

Kalshi and Ark Invest Launch Institutional Prediction Markets

|
Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market platform, announced a partnership with Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest to build institutional prediction markets. Ark Invest’s role is to select high-impact metrics, while Kalshi provides the compliant trading infrastructure. Tarek Mansour said demand from hedge funds, asset managers, and corporate treasuries is driving the move. The goal is to create “institutional-grade” data signals—probabilistic forecasts from real capital—rather than pure speculation. Planned launch is phased, with initial markets expected in Q2 2025 after testing and compliance. The first set will cover macro indicators (e.g., monthly non-farm payrolls and fiscal deficit-to-GDP), corporate KPIs for major public companies, and sector metrics for areas such as technology and energy. Regulatory integrity is emphasized: Kalshi operates as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and will use market surveillance, KYC/AML screening, and objective public-data settlement rules to reduce compliance and manipulation risk. For traders, the market-research impact matters more than settlement payouts. If successful, institutional prediction markets could become an additional input to portfolio risk management, hedging decisions, and potentially machine-learning models fed by continuous probability data. Key near-term watchpoints are liquidity and adoption—institutions must actively trade to keep forecasts reliable. Overall, the partnership positions institutional prediction markets as a next-step “alternative data” layer inside mainstream research workflows.
Neutral
Institutional Prediction MarketsKalshiArk InvestCFTC DCM RegulationAlternative Data

ZachXBT flags USDC freeze: 16 exchange wallets hit

|
ZachXBT flagged a USDC freeze event that reportedly affected 16 exchange-linked hot wallets on 23 March 2026. The key issue is that the USDC freeze appeared to extend beyond intended enforcement addresses, disrupting bridging and settlement flows. Some frozen wallets still showed normal operational activity, raising questions about targeting accuracy. Circle later reversed some freezes (including the “Goated” wallet), suggesting the action may have been corrected rather than fully finalized. At the same time, USDC blacklisted addresses climbed to 596, indicating tightening compliance and deeper regulatory integration. Trader-relevant impact: liquidity reliability concerns increased around USDC’s role as stablecoin infrastructure. The article notes liquidity fragmentation risk across stablecoin ecosystems, with reported settlement failures affecting both exchanges and bridges. Market data cited: USDC supply held near $78.7B but declined 0.90% weekly. Total stablecoin supply rose slightly (+0.04%), implying rotation instead of an exit. In contrast, USDT dominance increased to 58.29% with $184.1B, absorbing redirected liquidity. Bottom line for traders: the USDC freeze highlights centralized control and operational risk in stablecoins. If similar USDC freeze events recur, near-term liquidity may keep rotating toward USDT, while longer-term trust in USDC could face marginal pressure.
Bearish
USDC freezeStablecoin complianceExchange hot walletsLiquidity rotationUSDT dominance

NZD/USD Drops as US Dollar Surges on Hawkish Fed and Geopolitical Risk

|
NZD/USD is slipping as the US Dollar strengthens and geopolitical tensions lift risk-off demand. The pair fell more than 1.5% from around 0.6150 to test support near 0.6050, breaking key technical levels and signaling higher near-term volatility. The main driver is a hawkish shift in US rate expectations. Strong US employment data and persistent services inflation are keeping the Federal Reserve more cautious on rate cuts, while New Zealand indicators point to softer domestic demand. This widening yield advantage for US Treasuries versus NZ government bonds supports USD strength. At the same time, renewed geopolitical stress is pushing investors toward safe havens such as the US Dollar, Swiss franc and gold. Growth-linked and commodity-sensitive currencies like the NZD face selling pressure as liquidity preference rises across spot FX and derivatives. For traders, that means NZD/USD may remain sensitive to headlines and hedging activity. Key upcoming catalysts include US CPI and Retail Sales, plus New Zealand quarterly GDP and Business NZ manufacturing PMI. A scenario of stronger-than-expected US data combined with weak NZ releases could further pressure NZD/USD. Conversely, any reversal in the US–NZ data spread may stabilize the pair. Overall, NZD/USD weakness reflects both technical deterioration and a broader macro reset driven by USD strength and risk sentiment.
Bearish
NZD/USDUS Dollar StrengthFed Rate OutlookGeopolitical RiskFX Risk-Off

XRP ETFs turn to first monthly outflow after $1.2B inflows

|
XRP ETFs are on track for their first monthly net outflow since launch. SoSoValue data show the four XRP funds logged about $28 million in net redemptions in March, while CoinShares reports XRP-linked global funds were the worst-performing asset class, with $130 million in net outflows. The reversal follows a strong initial phase that drove cumulative net inflows to roughly $1.2 billion over four months. Crypto traders should note this does not necessarily mean institutions are abandoning XRP—ETF flows can cool while broader allocations and infrastructure build-outs continue. The institutional case remains supported by Goldman Sachs exposure disclosed in an SEC filing (more than $152 million across four spot XRP ETFs). Separately, a Coinbase/EY-Parthenon survey of 351 institutional investors found 18% already allocated to XRP, and 25% planned to add in 2026; 73% planned to increase digital-asset allocations, citing regulatory clarity and compliance frameworks. Ripple’s strategy may also explain near-term ETF flow volatility. Ripple is expanding beyond a single payments narrative with offerings spanning payments, custody, stablecoins, treasury tools and prime brokerage. It has also emphasized XRPL’s compliance tooling, permissioned environments, and tokenization activity for a more institution-friendly market. XRPL’s stablecoin volume has reportedly surpassed $1B monthly (RWA.xyz). Market angle: XRP price is cited around $1.40, with derivatives leverage reportedly falling (CryptoQuant), suggesting a less crowded positioning setup. Traders may watch whether ETF outflows prove temporary and whether spot/perps demand strengthens alongside XRPL and Ripple infrastructure momentum. Keywords: XRP ETF, XRP ETFs, XRP.
Bearish
XRP ETFinstitutional flowsRipple and XRPLtokenizationderivatives positioning

Trump Iran attack halt claim after Tehran diplomatic request

|
Trump Iran attack halt: Former U.S. President Donald Trump claimed a planned U.S. strike on Iranian energy facilities was paused after Iran directly requested the halt, according to a report cited from Walter Bloomberg. The article links the alleged decision to the strategic importance of Iran’s energy infrastructure and the broader cycle of U.S.-Iran tensions, including tanker seizures, drone shootdowns, and attacks on oil assets. It notes the lack of official public confirmation from Iran. Experts say back-channel requests can be a standard crisis-management tool. Even a temporary pause can create a window for dialogue and reduce miscalculation risk, with potential knock-on effects for regional stability and global oil-market pricing. If verified, the Trump Iran attack halt would also imply complex military recalibration rather than a simple cancellation, since forces, timing, and contingency plans must be adjusted in the Persian Gulf. The piece frames the development as happening amid the post-JCPOA vacuum, where formal diplomacy has weakened. For traders, the key takeaway is that any perceived de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran can ease geopolitical and energy-shock risk premia in the short term. However, uncertainty and no official confirmation keep volatility risk elevated.
Neutral
US-Iran tensionsgeopolitical riskoil market sensitivityde-escalation signalscrypto risk sentiment

South Korea to Impose Antidumping Tariffs on Chinese and Japanese Robots

|
South Korea has decided to impose antidumping tariffs on industrial robots from China and Japan, aiming to protect local robot makers from low-cost dumping. The Korea Trade Commission (KTC) said it will levy duties as high as 15.96%–19.85% on Chinese robots and 17.45%–18.64% on Japanese robots. The decision follows a KTC investigation that included overseas on-site inspections and reviews of domestic demand industries. The probe was triggered by complaints from HD Hyundai Robotics and four other firms. They alleged that Chinese and Japanese suppliers sold vertically articulated industrial robots with four or more axes at unfairly low prices. HD Hyundai reported damages starting in the first half of 2024, citing Chinese products priced nearly 60% below locally made equivalents. The firms argued the dumping was intended to cut inventories amid weak consumption in China. Context: Korea is the world’s fourth-largest industrial robot market, behind China, Japan, and the United States. As of 2024, Korea had 391,900 operational units. The U.S. is also pressing for tariffs on Chinese robots. In testimony to Congress, Tesla-linked and other U.S. robotics executives argued China’s pricing undercuts U.S. competitors. A U.S. executive order on robotics is expected, but some officials expect stronger policy only after political developments, including any potential U.S.–China high-level meeting. For traders, these tariffs on industrial robots are mainly a trade-policy development, but they also signal continued political risk around tech supply chains and industrial automation.
Neutral
industrial robotsantidumping tariffstrade warrobotics policyHD Hyundai Robotics

Bitcoin Profitability Near 50% Signals Past Cycle Upside

|
Bitcoin’s “total supply in profit” fell to 60.6% on Thursday, continuing to trade in the 50–60% range that has historically marked Bitcoin market cycle resets. The metric previously dipped to 50.8% on Feb. 5, the lowest since Jan. 2, 2023, when a large share of holders were close to breakeven or underwater. In past cycles, similar profitability compression did not identify an exact bottom price, but it did coincide with periods where downside selling pressure eased and long-term accumulation dominated. In January 2023, when profitability was around 51%, BTC later rallied 655% to about $126,000 in 2025. A comparable setup occurred in March 2020, before BTC moved from roughly $6,500 to $69,000 in 2021. Analysts note the long-term holder NUPL (LTH-NUPL) is still around 0.40, meaning long-term investors remain in profit even as overall “Bitcoin profitability” falls toward cycle-low zones. The article attributes this to a structural shift: corporate entities and spot Bitcoin ETFs control about 15.8% of circulating supply (~3,319,677 BTC), typically with less sensitivity to short-term price drops, reducing forced selling. On flows, short-term holder BTC to Binance fell to about 25,000 BTC on March 25—down from ~100,000 BTC in early February—suggesting reduced reactive selling. Valuation-model mentions include MVRV below 1, NUPL under -0.2, and Puell Multiple near 0.35 as historical “stress/undervaluation” markers, though not precise bottom predictors. Key takeaway for traders: Bitcoin profitability is approaching historically relevant accumulation zones, but the presence of ETF/corporate holders may mute liquidation-style sell pressure versus prior bear cycles.
Neutral
BitcoinOn-chain metricsBTC ETFsMarket cycle bottomBinance flows

Ripple CEO Predicts Crypto Market Structure Bill Will Pass Despite Coinbase

|
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse says a key U.S. crypto market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, will ultimately pass into law, despite public opposition from Coinbase. The Senate compromise version includes a contentious ban on paying interest on stablecoin balances. Garlinghouse suggested Ripple is not a “leading force” in this fight, positioning the firm more as an observer, while arguing legislative momentum is building from industry and regulator “fatigue” after nearly a decade of patchwork rules. Coinbase strongly opposes the stablecoin interest ban, saying it could harm consumers and stifle innovation and directly challenges its interest-bearing stablecoin products. Garlinghouse cited political factors in Washington: multiple committee hearings over the past three years, bipartisan interest in passing before the next election cycle, and pressure from faster-moving regulators abroad (EU/UK) to keep the U.S. competitive. Next steps are expected to include committee markups and amendments, with the stablecoin provision remaining the most contentious point. Some lawmakers have floated alternatives such as a licensed framework for interest-bearing stablecoin products instead of an outright ban. Market reaction was reportedly muted, suggesting traders are waiting for further legislative detail. The outcome will shape U.S. rules for exchanges, custody, and token classification.
Neutral
RippleCLARITY ActStablecoin regulationCoinbase oppositionU.S. crypto market structure bill

SOL at $82.6–$91.4 demand: hold vs $100 breakout risk

|
Solana (SOL) is trading near $87.65 after a multi-timeframe decline, with traders watching whether the key on-chain demand zone can hold. Ali Martinez flagged that over 100M SOL moved between $91.45 and $82.60, making $82.6–$91.4 the main area bulls must defend. If SOL loses this range, downside levels cited include $53.10, $35.40 and $23.60. Technicals remain bearish. Crypto Patel noted rejection at the $140–$145 resistance area, a break below $120, and a rising wedge around ~$87. A wedge breakdown could extend selling back toward $80 and into the $70–$65 band. Resistance is still seen around $95–$100 and $120. However, a rebound setup exists. CryptoCurb pointed to rising trendline support from recent accumulation. If SOL holds the trendline and breaks above $90–$95, momentum could push SOL through $100 and open room toward $120–$150. Key levels for traders: defend $82.60–$91.45 demand, and watch whether $90–$100 flips from resistance into support—otherwise the bearish continuation risk stays elevated.
Neutral
SolanaSOL SupportOn-chain DemandTechnical AnalysisBreakout Levels

Crypto VCs Shift Focus to Stablecoins for Reliable “Financial Plumbing”

|
Bloomberg reports that crypto venture capitalists are backing away from the earlier “blockchain, not Bitcoin” Web3 narrative. Instead, funding trends show venture capital is increasingly drawn to stablecoins because they provide dependable “financial plumbing” for digital-asset markets. In this framing, stablecoins are viewed as the practical infrastructure that reduces friction versus more speculative Web3 bets. While the article is largely subscriber-gated and does not provide detailed deal counts or named investors, the central takeaway for traders is clear: stablecoins are capturing venture attention as a liquidity and settlement layer. For market participants, this implies potentially steadier demand dynamics around stablecoin liquidity, trading rails, and on/off-ramp usage. Traders may watch stablecoin market share, issuance trends, and trading volumes in stablecoin pairs as early signals of where VC capital—and therefore liquidity—could concentrate next. Key theme: stablecoins are becoming a favored funding target as crypto investors prioritize reliability over narrative-driven Web3 development.
Neutral
stablecoinscrypto venture capitalWeb3 funding shiftliquidity and settlementdigital asset infrastructure

Binance warns rogue market makers of blacklisting amid listing backlash

|
Binance says it is intensively monitoring market-making activity and will “take swift, decisive action” against misconduct, including blacklisting market makers tied to manipulation of Binance-listed projects. The announcement follows months of backlash over Binance’s listing practices, especially after the Oct. 10 market crash. Critics argued Binance “extracted” value from new listings—claims that allegedly ranged up to $100M per project—citing figures such as Mike Dudas (6th Man Ventures) and MoonRock Capital founder Simon Dedic. Dedic has previously alleged Binance demands a large share of token supply that later gets dumped, and he cited data suggesting many listed projects fall toward near-zero. Binance denies these allegations as false and defamatory. However, its latest stance shifts the focus from listings themselves to the behavior of market makers. The exchange cautions that market makers can also act irresponsibly and urges new projects to vet market makers and their on-chain activity more thoroughly. Binance founder CZ also warned teams not to trust anyone claiming close ties to him in exchange for a listing. For traders, the key takeaway is heightened enforcement risk around liquidity provision and potential manipulation tied to newly listed tokens, which could affect near-term volatility and liquidity dynamics for fresh listings.
Neutral
Binancemarket makerstoken listingsblacklisting riskliquidity manipulation

Crypto drops with equities as risk-off hits ETH and SOL

|
Crypto drops alongside equities as risk-off sentiment spreads across markets. A broad sell-off in digital assets tracked declines in U.S. stocks, suggesting a coordinated pullback in risk assets rather than a crypto-specific shock. Across major coins, losses were widespread. Ethereum (ETH) fell about 4.1% and Solana (SOL) slid more than 5%, both underperforming Bitcoin (BTC), which declined roughly 2.1% but stayed firmly in negative territory. Large-cap tokens also dropped, including BNB and XRP. Stablecoins were comparatively steady: USDC and Tether (USDT) showed little change, indicating traders favored capital preservation over risk-taking. The article notes no clear crypto catalyst, pointing to macro positioning as the likely driver. Equity markets echoed the move, with the technology sector under pressure. NVIDIA and Meta Platforms fell sharply (Meta nearly -8%, Nvidia over -4%), while Alphabet and Amazon also posted losses, contributing to broader weakness in the S&P 500. For traders, the key takeaway is the growing correlation between crypto and equities during stress. Crypto did not act as a hedge; instead, it traded in line with risk sentiment. If this risk-off backdrop persists, expect continued volatility and downside pressure—especially in higher-beta assets like ETH and SOL.
Bearish
risk-offETHSOLequities correlationstablecoins

Bitcoin edges up as Trump extends Iran strike pause to 10 days

|
Bitcoin steadied after a sharp sell-off as U.S. President Donald Trump extended the pause on attacks against Iran’s energy infrastructure to 10 days, citing ongoing diplomacy in a Truth Social post. The move came after an “ugly” Thursday for risk assets. Bitcoin fell more than 3% and the Nasdaq dropped 2.4%, with the Nasdaq still ~10% below its late-January peak. Macro pressure remains. Oil prices jumped on the Iran war, while Western bond markets worsened. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to as high as 4.43% before easing to about 4.41%, alongside renewed bets that the Federal Reserve may delay or even hike rates, pushing yields higher and rate-cut expectations lower. On the crypto side, the headlines supported a modest rebound: Bitcoin was up about 1% from its worst levels and traded just above $69,000. Ether (ETH), XRP, Solana (SOL) and ADA also rebounded from session lows, but each was still down roughly 3%–5% over the prior 24 hours. Overall, the Trump Iran-strike pause reduces near-term geopolitical tail risk, but the bigger driver for traders is still the rates-and-oil shock feeding volatility. Bitcoin’s stabilization looks corrective, not fully defensive, while yields and oil move remain key catalysts.
Neutral
BitcoinGeopoliticsUS Treasury yieldsOil pricesRisk sentiment

Bitmine Ethereum holdings surge to 4.66M ETH as it buys 65K ETH

|
Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) keeps expanding its Ethereum (ETH) treasury. In a March 23 disclosure, the company reported 4,660,903 ETH after adding 65,341 ETH worth more than $138 million in the prior week—its third straight weekly ETH buy in March. This follows a steady accumulation pace: BMNR bought 51,000 ETH in late Feb/early Mar (~$1,976/ETH), added 60,976 ETH around March 9 (~$1,965/ETH), then reached 4,595,562 ETH by mid-March after another weekly purchase of 60,999 ETH. The latest ETH acquisition was around $2,072/ETH. After the newest buys, BMNR’s total crypto plus cash holdings rose to about $11 billion, including roughly $1.1 billion in cash. The firm is also reported as the largest ETH treasury globally, holding about 3.6% of Ethereum’s circulating supply; management targets expanding toward a 5% stake (near 6 million ETH). Bitcoin is still being added, but more slowly: BTC holdings rose to 196. For traders, the key signal is persistent, large-scale corporate ETH accumulation that can support ETH demand and tighten near-term spot liquidity—potentially lifting sentiment even amid broader market uncertainty.
Bullish
ETH accumulationBitmine treasuryspot demandcorporate crypto buyingBTC holdings

Japan FSA Warns KuCoin Over Unregistered OTC Derivatives Trading

|
Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) has issued warning letters to KuCoin and three other platforms for conducting financial instruments business without registration. In its March update, the FSA said the firms were soliciting over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives trading via the internet. KuCoin, headquartered in the Seychelles, was listed as offering services to Japanese residents. The same notice covered NeonFX, theoption, and GTCFX. The move follows prior regulatory actions. In November 2024, the FSA issued a similar warning to KuCoin and Bybit for serving Japanese users without proper registration. In February 2025, it asked Apple and Google to suspend downloads of KuCoin’s app. The regulator’s timing matters. The FSA is preparing to shift Japan’s legal framework from the Payment Services Act to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, tightening reporting and boosting enforcement against unregistered platforms. Cointelegraph contacted KuCoin for comment but received no response. The article also notes a separate controversy involving Japan’s prime minister denying involvement in a “Sanae token,” which briefly hit about $28 million in market value before falling.
Bearish
Japan regulationKuCoinOTC derivativesFSA warning lettersFinancial Instruments and Exchange Act

US Dollar Index (DXY) rallies for 3rd day on safe-haven demand

|
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has gained for a third straight day, extending a safe-haven rally as investors turn defensive amid heightened global risk aversion. The move is underpinned by geopolitical uncertainty (Eastern Europe, South China Sea) and a growing view that monetary policy divergence is favoring the US. From a technical perspective, DXY has broken out of recent consolidation and cleared the 105.00 psychological level, with a bullish “golden cross” developing as the 50-day moving average moves above the 200-day. Analysts highlight a key close above 105.50, with 104.80 now acting as support. The next upside target is the November 2024 high near 106.20. Momentum is strong, though RSI is nearing overbought conditions. Fundamentals also point to higher dollar demand: the ECB’s more dovish tone versus the Fed’s data-dependent stance is widening expected interest-rate differentials, attracting yield-seeking capital into USD assets. Market stress gauges are shifting toward “fear,” which historically aligns with DXY strength. Currency spillovers include pressure on EUR/USD toward multi-week lows near 1.0650 and weakness in USD/JPY beyond 152.00. Emerging-market currencies face renewed stress as USD funding costs rise. Traders should watch incoming US inflation data and any easing—or escalation—of geopolitical risks. A continued risk-off backdrop could keep the US Dollar Index (DXY) elevated (a potential test around 107.00), while a de-escalation could trigger a faster retracement back into risk assets. Overall, this is a macro signal that can tighten liquidity and weigh on crypto risk sentiment. (US Dollar Index (DXY) rally cited as the core driver throughout.)
Bearish
US Dollar Index (DXY)safe-haven demandFed vs ECB policy divergenceFX volatilityrisk-off sentiment

US Dollar Safe-Haven Rally Hits Forex as Iran Tensions Escalate

|
Escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran triggered a broad risk-off move in global forex on Thursday, driving the US Dollar safe-haven rally. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose about 0.8% for a third straight day to the highest level in over a month. Traders in Asia and Europe rotated into dollar assets, pressuring the Euro and other risk-sensitive currencies. Major pairs showed clear stress: EUR/USD fell roughly 0.7% below the 1.0800 support area, GBP/USD slipped about 0.5%, while USD/JPY gained around 0.3% and held above 154.00; AUD/USD dropped about 1.1% below 0.6500. The breakout was supported by above-average volume and a jump in demand for FX protection in options markets, signaling expectations of continued volatility. The catalyst was elevated diplomatic rhetoric around Iran. Analysts noted the dollar benefits during crises due to liquidity and the “cleanest shirt” role of US Treasuries. Emerging-market currencies faced sharper declines as capital sought dollar-denominated safety. Intermarket pressure also appeared: equities turned lower and safe-haven demand lifted government bond prices and gold, though gold’s move lagged the dollar. Traders will watch for (1) any de-escalation headlines that could spark a relief bounce in beaten-down currencies, and (2) upcoming US inflation and employment data that may influence Federal Reserve expectations and sustain the US Dollar safe-haven rally.
Bearish
US Dollar safe-haven rallyIran geopolitical riskFX volatilityDXY breakoutFed rate expectations