BitMine (BMNR) shares have plunged roughly 80% from their yearly high to about $31.7 as investor appetite for digital-asset treasury firms faded. Two recent reports show the company continuing large-scale Ethereum accumulation (now >4.06 million ETH) and preparing to monetize holdings via a MAVAN staking product expected to launch in early 2026. Analysts cite four catalysts for a potential rebound: (1) Technical setup — BMNR displays falling-wedge and other bullish patterns that could propel price toward near-term resistance around $50–$64; (2) Heavy ETH exposure — with roughly 4+ million ETH in treasury, BMNR’s valuation is highly sensitive to ETH price moves, so institutional flows and lower exchange ETH supply support a bullish case; (3) MAVAN staking monetization — management and analysts estimate annualized staking revenue in the low hundreds of millions (roughly $330M–$400M depending on model), adding recurring yield to the treasury; (4) Balance-sheet strategy — BitMine reports no debt and is accumulating ETH via an at-the-market equity program, targeting up to 5% of ETH supply and planning to stop dilutive issuances once the target is met (potentially H1 2026). Key trading implications: monitor ETH price momentum (on-chain metrics, ETF flows, and exchange supply), MAVAN rollout and staking yield updates, and any further ATM share issuance which could dilute equity value. For traders seeking exposure to ETH, BMNR offers leveraged upside plus staking-derived yield but also amplifies downside if ETH corrects. Primary keywords: BitMine, BMNR, Ethereum, ETH, MAVAN, staking, ETH accumulation.
Mutuum Finance (MUTM) is advancing through its presale—now in Phase 6 and nearly sold out—with raised proceeds around $19–19.5 million and roughly 18.3–18.6k holders. Phase 6 price sits at $0.035 (≈3.5× the Phase 1 price of $0.01); Phase 7 will start at $0.04 and the planned public launch price is $0.06. The project has added gamified incentives (daily leaderboard rewards and a large giveaway) to boost participation and promotes a dual lending model combining peer-to-contract and peer-to-peer lending. Development milestones include an independent security audit in progress, lending/borrowing contracts in final review, and a planned V1 on Sepolia testnet supporting ETH and USDT with liquidity pools, mtTokens, debt tokens and a liquidator bot. Traders are being urged to buy at current presale prices before Phase 6 fills, though articles note this is promotional material and advise due diligence. By contrast, Cardano (ADA) has shown weakening price action: trading near $0.36 after recent drops, below its 50- and 200-day moving averages, with negative RSI/MACD and Chaikin Money Flow below zero. Analysts cited support levels around $0.438, $0.386 and $0.354, with a downside target near $0.29 if key support fails. The coverage frames MUTM as an early-stage, discounted altcoin offering potential short-term upside for speculators, while ADA’s deteriorating technicals and reduced on-chain momentum make it less attractive for traders seeking immediate gains.
Shiba Inu (SHIB) fell to multi-month lows (around $0.0000073) while on-chain metrics showed a sharp increase in token burns and continued exchange withdrawals. A 24-hour burn surge of 133% removed about 7.2 million SHIB, with more than 35 million burned over four days, trimming circulating supply to roughly 585 trillion. Exchange reserves have declined for months, suggesting accumulation into cold wallets. Technically, SHIB has formed a large falling wedge on the daily chart and the Percentage Price Oscillator shows bullish divergence, supporting a potential near-term rebound toward ~$0.000010, with that view invalidated below the year-to-date low at $0.0000069. However, off-chain fundamentals are mixed to weak: Shibarium’s TVL has plunged (~19% to $1.47M) with no notable protocol additions, 24h trading volume has cooled (~$96M), and futures open interest collapsed to about $77M from a YTD high near $550M. Earlier reporting noted an even larger burn spike (17,225%) tied to a ~30M token transfer to a burn address but pointed out the dollar value of that burn was tiny (~$250) versus SHIB’s multi-billion-dollar market cap. For traders: rising token scarcity and falling exchange supply are potential bullish supply-side factors, but weak ecosystem adoption, declining liquidity and derivatives activity, and bearish technical breakdowns (from the earlier report) argue for continued downside risk unless smart-money accumulation, meaningful Shibarium traction, or ETF-related demand re-emerge. Monitor burn rates, exchange balances, Shibarium TVL and developer activity, daily volume and open interest, and price action around $0.0000069 (bear invalidation) and $0.000010 (near-term target).
BNB rallied intraday after breaking the $860 resistance, briefly trading near $868 as the CoinDesk 20 index also climbed. Trading volume jumped sharply — roughly 192% above the daily average in the later report — with multiple distinct surges and a V-shaped hourly recovery that pushed intraday support to about $856–$858 and formed an ascending triangle around $864–$866, technical patterns often linked to bullish continuation. Earlier coverage showed BNB up about 1.7–2.5% over 24 hours with higher-than-average volume, higher lows and consolidation near intraday highs, holding above $850 support. However, the token is still about 32% below its all-time high, and exchange tokens such as KCS and LEO have outperformed on smaller drawdowns. Off-chain risk increased after a Financial Times report alleging Binance failed to stop hundreds of millions in suspicious crypto flows despite a $4.3 billion U.S. settlement, a development that could raise regulatory scrutiny and reputational risk. Key takeaways for traders: elevated volume and bullish intraday price structures support short-term upside and a possible test of $880–$900 if momentum holds, but ongoing regulatory pressure tied to Binance increases the risk of sharp volatility and could cap medium-term gains. Primary keywords: BNB, Binance, trading volume, resistance, support, regulatory scrutiny.
Wall Street analyst Linda P. Jones argues XRP should be seen as a network-linked asset tied to Ripple’s institutional payments infrastructure rather than a retail-driven meme token. Jones compares XRP’s current phase to early-stage Berkshire Hathaway, warning that selling now risks missing outsized long-term gains as Ripple’s enterprise integrations (for example, SBI Holdings) and regulatory clarity develop. Price context: XRP fell from a July high near $3.65 to about $1.94 (roughly a 48% decline) and sits roughly 50% below its all-time high near $3.84. Despite the pullback, XRP-linked spot ETFs have continued to collect assets, surpassing $60 million AUM as of Dec. 17, though analysts note ETF inflows don’t always produce immediate spot buying due to settlement timing. Supporters point to growing institutional demand and potential regulatory catalysts (e.g., clarity from U.S. lawmakers) as triggers for a re-rating; critics cite technical weakness and broader market headwinds that could delay any rally. This is opinion-based commentary and not investment advice.
Neutral
XRPRippleinstitutional adoptioncrypto ETFprice outlook
Digital asset investment products saw $952 million in net outflows last week, ending a four-week inflow run as US regulatory uncertainty and large-holder selling weighed on sentiment. CoinShares data show US-domiciled products dominated withdrawals, with roughly $990 million pulled from US funds, partly offset by inflows to Canada ($46.2 million) and Germany ($15.6 million). Ethereum-linked products experienced the largest redemptions (~$555 million), driven by concerns about staking and classification rules amid delays to US Clarity Act guidance. Bitcoin funds also saw significant outflows (~$460 million) though year-to-date BTC fund inflows remain large. In contrast, select altcoins — Solana (SOL) and XRP — attracted targeted buying, drawing about $48.5 million and $62.9 million respectively. Total assets under management in digital asset products fell to about $46.7 billion from last year’s $48.7 billion peak. For traders: expect elevated short-term volatility tied to US policy developments and whale activity; ETH and BTC products face heightened redemption risk, while assets with clearer regulatory outlooks (SOL, XRP) may offer tactical buying opportunities. Primary keywords: digital asset fund outflows, US regulatory uncertainty, Ethereum outflows. Secondary/semantic keywords: Bitcoin redemptions, Solana inflows, XRP inflows, Clarity Act delays, AUM decline.
Bearish
US regulatory uncertaintyfund outflowsEthereumBitcoinSolana/XRP inflows
Shiba Inu (SHIB) open interest in derivatives rose roughly 8% in 24 hours to $75.76 million — equal to over 10 trillion SHIB in unsettled positions, per CoinGlass. The pickup signals renewed trader engagement as year-end positioning accelerates. Price gained about 1.8% in the same period to $0.000007344 but remains down on the week. Research firm 10x Research notes that holiday liquidity is typically thin, yet current futures, ETF flow and options activity point to coordinated de-risking and renewed momentum into the close of the year. Separately, Shiba Inu partner Zama completed a Decentralized Key Generation (DKG) ceremony for its mainnet, advancing infrastructure for the Zama Confidential Blockchain. For traders: rising open interest alongside muted price movement suggests new leveraged positions are being opened without a decisive directional break. This increases the potential for leverage-driven volatility or a short-term breakout if open interest and volume continue to climb. Key watch points: OI growth, derivatives funding rates, volume spikes, and any catalyst from Zama’s mainnet progress.
Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), reiterated on the Breakdown podcast that continued large-scale corporate accumulation of Bitcoin could sharply tighten available supply and drive extreme price appreciation. Strategy has bought 671,268 BTC for about $50.3 billion at an average cost of $74,972, representing roughly 3.2% of total supply. Saylor said the same capital would buy far less BTC today, and he expects Strategy to continue buying until it holds about 5%–7.5% of total supply before significantly slowing purchases. He projected that reaching 5% could push Bitcoin toward $1,000,000 per coin, and 7% could imply a $10,000,000 price — scenarios framed as opinion rather than investment advice. Saylor also argued that institutional flows (for example, large inflows into BlackRock’s IBIT plus Strategy’s buying) concentrate coins among long-term holders and reduce circulating float, amplifying supply shocks. For traders: the report highlights elevated supply-side concentration risk, potential for significant upside if demand continues, and increased volatility as large corporate buyers accumulate; this is market information, not trading advice.
K9 Finance DAO and several projects in the Shiba Inu ecosystem lost affiliate verification badges on X after @shibtoken’s Business Subscription — a paid verification product that automatically extended affiliate status to connected projects and team members — was discontinued. Affected accounts included K9 Finance, Bad Idea AI, Shibarium, Shib: The Metaverse and lead developer Kaal Dhairya. K9 said the removals were an operational and financial decision tied to recurring subscription costs and discussions with Shiba Inu leadership, not a breakdown in partnerships. @shibtoken later restored its gold checkmark but removed affiliated links; K9 secured a standalone verification while other projects have not. The badge change comes amid unresolved tensions between K9 and Shibarium following a September 12 Shibarium bridge exploit that affected KNINE holders. K9 has offered a bounty to attackers, says Shibarium communication on recovery went silent, and has threatened a community vote to reconsider its relationship with Shibarium if affected users are not fully compensated by January 6, 2026. For traders: this is primarily an administrative and reputational development within the Shiba Inu community. Expect short-term noise in social signals and possible reputational risk for Shibarium-linked projects; monitor on-chain updates, KNINE and SHIB liquidity, any compensation developments, and governance votes that could affect token flows or market sentiment.
Financial Times documents reported by Cointelegraph show Binance allowed 13 flagged high‑risk accounts to process roughly $1.7 billion in crypto flows from 2021–2025, including about $144 million after Binance’s $4.3 billion US plea deal in November 2023. Internal files — KYC records, IP/device logs and transaction histories — reveal anomalous patterns: one account linked to a 25‑year‑old Venezuelan received about $177 million and changed bank details 647 times in 14 months; another account tied to a Caracas bank employee moved roughly $93 million and registered impossible IP jumps (Caracas to Osaka in under 10 hours). All 13 accounts shared suspicious markers and received about $29 million in USDT later frozen by Israeli authorities under anti‑terror laws. Transfers trace to addresses linked to Tawfiq Al‑Law (sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury) and to wallets alleged to have ties with Hizbollah and Iran‑backed Houthis. Login and device patterns suggest either account compromise or coordinated misuse; former prosecutors said the activity resembles an unlicensed money‑transmitting business. The files raise doubts about Binance’s implementation of post‑settlement controls — real‑time monitoring, enhanced due diligence and periodic customer reviews — and add regulatory and reputational pressure following founder Changpeng Zhao’s pardon and the appointment of independent monitors. Binance maintains it enforces strict compliance and zero tolerance for illicit activity. Key keywords: Binance, flagged accounts, $1.7B, $144M, plea deal, USDT, AML, sanctions.
Metaplanet won shareholder approval for a package of capital-structure changes designed to attract institutional investors and expand corporate Bitcoin accumulation. Approved measures include issuing dividend-paying Class A and Class B preferred shares, doubling authorized preferred share capacity, and reclassifying capital reserves to support preferred dividends and buybacks. Class A will feature a monthly floating-rate instrument — the Metaplanet Adjustable Rate Security (MARS) — with market-linked monthly payouts. Class B carries quarterly dividends plus investor protections: a 10-year issuer call at 130% and investor put/sell-back rights if agreed IPO conditions aren’t met; Class B may also be issued directly to overseas institutional buyers. Management says the moves shift funding toward traditional capital-market instruments instead of equity dilution and create a Sponsored Level I ADR (ticker MPJPY) to open another liquidity/arbitrage route. Metaplanet currently holds about 30,823 BTC (roughly $2.7–2.8bn), making it among the largest corporate Bitcoin treasuries and the largest in Asia. The Tokyo-listed stock rose — reported between ~4.2% and 6.5% after announcements — and has recovered from November lows but remains well below its June 2025 peak. For traders: the changes increase the company’s fundraising flexibility to buy more BTC, may raise corporate demand for BTC over time, and create new cross-listing/ADR liquidity that can affect price discovery and arbitrage opportunities. Primary keywords: Metaplanet, Bitcoin, preferred shares, dividend-paying shares, institutional investors; secondary keywords: MARS, capital restructuring, buybacks, ADR, BTC treasury.
The Federal Reserve has opened a 45-day public comment period on a proposal to create a limited-purpose “payment account” giving eligible financial institutions restricted access to Fed payment systems solely for clearing and settlement. These accounts would not be full master accounts and would exclude interest, discount-window access, daylight overdrafts, intraday credit and broader balance-management functions. Proposed safeguards include automated controls to prevent overdrafts and an overnight balance cap equal to the lower of $500 million or 10% of the institution’s total assets. The proposal targets modernization of U.S. payment infrastructure — including Fedwire Funds, the National Settlement Service, FedNow and limited Fedwire Securities transfers — to reduce settlement friction amid rising demand for faster settlement. The Fed framed the measure as a cautious, exploratory step that does not expand eligibility to nonbanks and does not address digital assets or a CBDC. Staff requested detailed feedback on account design, risk controls, compliance and financial integrity. For crypto traders, the plan could ease settlement frictions for regulated firms that interact with fiat rails, potentially improving on‑ramps and operational efficiency for compliant crypto services, while the explicit exclusion of nonbank eligibility and CBDC changes means limited immediate direct effects on crypto token markets.
Neutral
Federal Reservepayment accountpayment infrastructuresettlementFedNow
Kaspa (KAS) has gained renewed momentum as HTX opened deposits ahead of a planned spot listing, pushing the token above $0.048–$0.05. Trading volume surged over 100% (to >$33M) and KAS has rebounded from recent lows (~$0.040 on Dec 18 and a weekly low near $0.009 in October), outperforming many altcoins as BTC and ETH also recover. On-chain data showed exchange balances falling, a short-term bullish sign as holders move to self-custody. Technical indicators across daily and weekly charts point to a bullish reversal: price is approaching a downtrend line/wedge breakout, RSI is rising but not yet overbought, and MACD hints at a bullish crossover. Short-term targets cited include $0.05 (immediate resistance), then $0.081 and $0.10; longer-term reference levels mentioned range up to $0.5–$1. Additional catalysts include a Crescendo protocol upgrade planned for Q1 2026 and possible further exchange listings. Traders should watch $0.05 as the key breakout level, confirm moves with rising volume, monitor exchange flow and on-chain balances, and track macro moves in BTC/ETH that typically drive altcoin flows. Increased liquidity from the HTX listing could amplify volatility; risk management is advised.
WPA Hash, a cloud-mining and computing-power management platform, is promoting prepaid computing-power contracts that let XRP holders convert holdings into income-generating assets without selling tokens. Users activate a contract using XRP (or other supported assets), receive daily payouts based on allocated hashing power and block rewards, and reclaim principal after contract expiry. The service requires no hardware or technical knowledge, claims military-grade security and multi-asset support (XRP, BTC, ETH, USDT, DOGE), and reports user growth among XRP holders. WPA Hash markets tiered contract packages with advertised fixed or stable-yield returns (examples cited across reports: $100 → roughly $3–$6/day; $1,000–$1,500 → roughly $13–$156 total depending on plan; larger packages show higher absolute returns) and a $15 welcome bonus. The platform highlights transparent compute metrics, global data centres using green energy, zero maintenance costs for users, and the ability to withdraw or reinvest earnings anytime. The company frames the product as less correlated with short-term XRP price swings and suitable for holders seeking predictable income. The coverage is sponsored content and contains a disclosure advising readers to perform their own research; this is not investment advice.
Uniswap governance approved the UNIfication package, passing the long‑debated fee switch with more than 69 million UNI votes in favor and negligible opposition. The proposal immediately authorises a one‑off burn of 100 million UNI from the Uniswap Foundation treasury and will enable protocol fee switches for Uniswap v2 and v3 on mainnet after a two‑day timelock. Once activated, a portion of protocol fees will be directed to ongoing UNI burns and may be used via the new Protocol Fee Discount Auctions to improve liquidity provider returns. The package also creates a 20 million UNI growth budget for developers, aligns Uniswap Labs, the Uniswap Foundation and on‑chain governance under a Wyoming DUNA legal framework, and is backed by prominent DeFi figures. Market reaction was prompt: UNI rallied roughly 25% during the vote and briefly approached $9.70 before trading near $6 at the time of reporting. Traders should note this creates a potential deflationary dynamic by lowering circulating supply and tying protocol revenue to token economics — a material change that increases UNI holders’ exposure to protocol cash flows and could affect liquidity and volatility dynamics for the token.
2025 was a turbulent year for crypto: most altcoins plunged 80%–99%, Bitcoin reclaimed >60% market share and ETH traded near 2022 levels. Despite clearer regulation, ETF approvals and institutional flows, equities outperformed crypto. For traders heading into 2026, seven converging trends matter. 1) Prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi, Opinion) surged to roughly $3.8B weekly nominal volume, offering hedging, leverage and event-driven trade flow and airdrop opportunities. 2) Perpetual futures saw record engagement (weekly nominal volumes ~ $340B), continuing to concentrate leverage and liquidity. 3) Conservative options strategies — cash-secured puts and covered calls with 3–5 week capital lockups — emerged as preferred yield-generating plays in a volatile market. 4) Narrative fatigue pushed focus back to fundamentals: users, revenue and clear token value capture, reducing tolerance for weak tokenomics. 5) Conflicts between equity acquirers and token holders (examples: Pumpfun/Padre, Circle/Axelar) highlighted governance gaps; projects with aligned token-holder governance (MetaDAOs, ownership-token models like Umbra, Omnipair, Avici) showed resilience. 6) Tokenized securities progressed after the SEC’s no-action letter to DTC for a pilot tokenization program, paving the way for compliant tokenized stocks, bonds and ETFs from 2026 and accelerating TradFi–DeFi integration. 7) Consumer-facing crypto products and perps dominated user attention and on-chain engagement, drawing both natives and new users. Actionable takeaways for traders: monitor prediction markets and perp flow for directional signals and airdrops; prioritize conservative option-income strategies to harvest premiums; favor projects with transparent fundamentals and aligned token governance; and watch tokenized-securities developments for new regulated on-ramps and institutional flows. Overall outlook: a maturing market where fundamentals, governance alignment and product-market fit will drive returns — traders without a clear edge (research, disciplined trading or platform access) risk underperforming.
Anchorage Digital, the first federally chartered digital asset bank, has acquired Securitize for Advisors (SFA), the registered investment adviser (RIA) platform unit of Securitize. Financial terms were not disclosed. SFA already used Anchorage for custody; the deal integrates custody, trading and adviser-facing tools into a single platform aimed at RIAs. Anchorage says the move simplifies compliance and reduces operational friction for advisors entering crypto, expanding access to tokenized products and crypto ETFs. The acquisition follows Anchorage’s deepening institutional ties — including selection by Cantor Fitzgerald for Bitcoin custody — and comes after regulatory and market developments that have eased adviser entry into crypto (OCC custody guidance and 2024 spot Bitcoin ETF approvals). Securitize will refocus on tokenizing real-world assets and pursuing its RWA strategy. Key challenges include technical and cultural integration and navigating a changing regulatory landscape. For traders, the deal signals further institutional infrastructure consolidation that could accelerate institutional adoption of crypto products and increase liquidity and product availability for advisors and their clients. Primary keywords: Anchorage Digital, Securitize for Advisors, RIA custody, tokenized assets, crypto ETFs. The main keyword "Anchorage Digital" appears multiple times to aid discoverability.
Bybit’s head of B2B, Yoyee Wang, told an Abu Dhabi HSC Asset Management conference that institutional adoption of crypto hinges on capital-efficient custody designs and clearer regulation. On a panel with executives from Gate, Binance and Bitpanda, Wang said custody debates must go beyond security and transparency to address capital usage as custodians and off-exchange settlement models expand. She credited the UAE’s regulatory clarity — one reason Bybit relocated its headquarters there — with boosting innovation and institutional confidence. Wang highlighted Bybit’s work on tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), citing tokenized money-market products launched with Qatar National Bank and UBS, but cautioned the RWA market remains uneven and needs well-structured, regulated, tradable products to support secondary-market liquidity. She urged institutions to engage beyond passive exposure — including liquidity provision, agency trading and tech collaboration — to build viable institutional markets. Key themes for traders: custody design, capital efficiency, UAE regulatory clarity, tokenized RWAs, and Bybit’s push for institutional-grade infrastructure.
Experienced Dogecoin (DOGE) traders are noting early-cycle signals across crypto markets similar to DOGE’s 2021 run and are shifting attention toward undervalued, utility-focused altcoins. Mutuum Finance (MUTM) is highlighted as a leading candidate: its presale advanced through Phase 6 at $0.035 and is moving into Phase 7 at $0.04. The latest report says the MUTM presale is over 98% sold, with roughly $19.5 million raised and more than 18,550 holders. MUTM describes a two-token DeFi lending model with interest-bearing tokens, optimized liquidity pools, planned Sepolia testnet beta and pending mainnet deployment, and a Halborn smart-contract audit cited to bolster security claims. The articles contrast MUTM’s development-stage fundamentals and low entry price with Dogecoin’s current technical range (DOGE trading roughly $0.131–$0.138 after a bounce from $0.1199), positioning MUTM as a speculative, low-cost opportunity for early investors. Both pieces are promotional press releases and include reminders to perform due diligence before investing.
CryptoQuant analysts report that Bitcoin (BTC) demand growth materially slowed from October 2025, indicating the market may have entered a new bear phase. They outline three prior demand waves in the cycle — ETF launches in early 2024, a post-2024 election spike, and later corporate/“vault” accumulation — but say incremental institutional buying has largely been exhausted. Key on-chain and market metrics cited: roughly 24,000 BTC of ETF outflows in Q4 2025 versus strong ETF buying in Q4 2024; perpetual futures funding rates falling to their lowest levels since December 2023; and BTC price trading below the 365-day moving average (~$98,172), a dynamic support many traders monitor. Sentiment indicators remain weak (CoinMarketCap Fear & Greed Index in ‘fear’), and CME FedWatch assigns only a ~22% chance of a near-term Fed rate cut, reducing the likelihood of a rate-driven relief rally. While some analysts keep a bullish view for 2026 if demand returns and rates fall, the current combination of weakening ETF flows, depressed funding rates, and breach of the 365-day MA are near-term bearish signals that increase downside risk and potential consolidation. Traders should watch institutional ETF flows, funding-rate trends, the 365-day moving average, and Fed policy as primary catalysts for volatility and directional shifts.
Bearish
BitcoinBTCETF flowsFunding rates365-day moving average
On-chain monitors reported a wave of LINK withdrawals from Binance: over the past three days 11 newly created wallets moved a combined 1,567,000 Chainlink (LINK) — roughly $19.8 million — off the exchange. Earlier reporting had flagged a single wallet that previously withdrew hundreds of thousands of LINK in two transfers (about $2.49M and $3.08M), leaving it with roughly 445,775 LINK. The new report expands the scope, showing the outflows are concentrated across multiple new addresses rather than a lone wallet. No destination patterns, identities, or follow-up on-chain activity were disclosed. Traders should note the size, concentration and timing of these Binance outflows: such transfers can presage large sell-side pressure if moved to trading wallets, or indicate consolidation into cold storage if funds are being secured. Monitor subsequent on-chain movements and order-book activity for signs of liquidation or redistribution.
ERCOT’s interconnection queue has surged as hyperscale AI data centers from firms like Google, Microsoft and Amazon drive more than 160–226 GW of new large-load requests. Unlike flexible bitcoin mining loads, AI training and inference need steady 24/7 power, creating transmission bottlenecks because new lines take 5–7 years to build. ERCOT is reviewing thousands of generation proposals (mainly solar and batteries) that do not provide firm baseload, widening a potential reliability and investment gap. Bitcoin miners (e.g., Riot, Marathon, Core Scientific) face more frequent curtailments, higher ancillary-service fees and rising effective power costs in constrained regions such as West Texas. Some miners are adapting by converting sites to hybrid AI/mining facilities, seeking alternative low-cost power (hydro, nuclear, other states), or lobbying for “critical/flexible” load status. With BTC below US$90,000 and margins thin, increased grid congestion threatens miner profitability and may shift hashrate to other regions. Regulators have introduced “special handling” for very large customers and doubled transmission projects under review, but transmission lead times and the predominance of intermittent generation mean short-term operational uncertainty (curtailments, higher fees) and longer-term questions about transmission upgrades, regulatory prioritization, and Texas’s competitiveness as a mining hub.
Bearish
ERCOTAI data centersBitcoin miningTransmission bottleneckGrid reliability
Northern Data, majority-owned by Tether, has sold its Bitcoin mining arm Peak Mining to three buyer firms controlled by Tether executives — including entities linked to co-founder Giancarlo Devasini and CEO Paolo Ardoino — in a deal worth up to $200 million. Filings name Devasini and Ardoino as directors of the purchaser entities. The divestment follows an earlier failed $235 million sale tied to Devasini amid whistleblower allegations. Northern Data is also the subject of an EU tax-fraud probe and had offices raided in September; it denies wrongdoing and says it is cooperating. Separately, Rumble agreed to acquire Northern Data for roughly €700–800 million; as part of the transactions around that planned acquisition, a €610 million loan from Tether to Northern Data will be restructured: half will convert into Rumble shares and the remainder will be replaced by a new Tether loan secured against Northern Data assets. The moves fit a broader Tether strategy to expand beyond stablecoins into Bitcoin mining, AI infrastructure and media — Tether holds nearly 50% of Rumble, has a reported $100 million ad deal with Rumble and plans roughly $150 million in GPU purchases. Market implications for traders: the Peak Mining sale transfers mining capacity into entities controlled by Tether insiders and signals continued consolidation of crypto infrastructure and media investments under Tether-linked ownership. This may affect ownership concentration of Bitcoin mining capacity and counterparty risk for entities tied to Tether; it is not an immediate direct price driver for BTC but raises governance and regulatory risk considerations traders should watch.
Dogecoin (DOGE) fell below key range support around $0.129 after a concentrated sell-off and above‑average trading volume confirmed a breakdown from recent consolidation. Over the latest 24‑hour sessions DOGE traded roughly between $0.134 and $0.128–$0.130, with intraday volatility near 4% and a brief failed rally to $0.134. A surge in selling around 02:00 UTC pushed price through the $0.1289 floor and flipped that level into near‑term resistance. Short‑term technicals are bearish: DOGE sits below immediate moving averages and momentum indicators lean down. Critical levels: overhead resistance at $0.132–$0.134 and downside support at $0.129 (with secondary support near $0.125). A sustained loss of $0.129 would open the path to further weakness, while reclaiming $0.129–$0.130 on rising volume would be needed to neutralize the bearish setup. Traders should watch volume normalization versus renewed downside spikes — the volume surge during the breakdown suggests active participation and keeps DOGE technically vulnerable in the short term.
Santiago Roel Santos, founder and CEO of Inversion Capital, warned that fintechs embedding prediction markets (casino-like event betting) into retail platforms risk accelerating user churn and account liquidations. While he supports prediction markets in principle, Santos argued in a Dec. 20 blog post that these speculative products increase the chance retail users will be fully wiped out and permanently exit platforms, turning them into zero lifetime value. He cited recent industry moves — Robinhood’s partnership with Kalshi and planned 2025 push, Coinbase’s announcement to add prediction markets, and a Gemini affiliate licensing event contracts — driven partly by the 2024 US election surge in adoption. Santos urged fintechs to prioritise durable, "boring" financial products that protect household liquidity and grow with users (credit cards, insurance, savings) rather than short-term engagement from speculative offerings. For traders, the key implications are higher platform-level volatility in retail activity and the potential reputational and regulatory scrutiny that could affect token-listed services or partner exchanges. Primary keywords: prediction markets, fintech, user churn. Secondary/semantic keywords: Robinhood, Coinbase, Gemini, Kalshi, account liquidation, financial super app.
Coins.ph, the Philippines’ largest digital-asset platform, has launched an institutional-grade foreign exchange (FX) service offering ultra-tight spreads of 2 basis points (0.02%) on major G10 pairs including USD/PHP, USD/EUR and USD/JPY. Backed by Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) licences for Foreign Exchange, Remittance & Transfer and Money Changing, the service targets corporate and institutional clients with a $20,000 minimum trade size, no maximum transaction limit, near-instant settlement, and next-business-day spot hedging. CEO Wei Zhou credits the pricing to the company’s regulated agility, faster settlement and improved risk management, allowing it to undercut typical Philippine bank institutional fees (~10 bps) and far below retail spreads (80–90 bps). The launch complements Coins.ph’s recent moves into stablecoin-enabled remittances and partnerships (including BCRemit and a Memorandum of Understanding with Vietnam’s Best Way Corporation) and participation in Circle’s Arc testnet for stablecoin settlement. For crypto traders and institutional treasury desks, the offering signals deeper FX liquidity, lower hedging and cross-border payment costs, and a regulated counterparty alternative for fiat and digital-asset flows—potentially improving execution and reducing FX costs for large-volume trading and corporate FX operations.
Citigroup analysts forecast Bitcoin (BTC) may reach a 12‑month base-case target of $143,000 (≈62% upside from current levels near $88,000). The research lays out three scenarios: a base case ($143K) driven by renewed spot‑ETF demand and expected progress on U.S. digital‑asset legislation (the “Clarity Act”) by Q2 that would reduce regulatory uncertainty; a bear case ($78,500) if a global recession forces risk‑asset declines; and a bull case ($189,000) if broad adoption by retail, retirement funds and large institutions creates sustained ETF inflows. Citi highlights $70,000 as a key psychological support level — a break below could undermine market confidence. Analysts named in the note are Alex Saunders, Dirk Willer and Vinh Vo. The report stresses outcomes depend on macro conditions, regulatory progress and ETF flow dynamics. This is presented as market information, not investment advice.
A single whale wallet (0xa923) executed a concentrated sell-off of 230,350 AAVE (~$37.59M) over roughly three hours, swapping the tokens into 5,869.46 stETH (~$17.52M) and 227.8 WBTC (~$20.07M), according to on-chain data (Onchain Lens). The rapid reallocation coincided with roughly a 9.6–10% decline in AAVE within 24 hours, with CoinMarketCap showing AAVE near $161.70 after the move. Unlike an exit to fiat, the trade was a portfolio shift into blue‑chip crypto, suggesting the whale rotated exposure rather than sold out. For traders: monitor on‑chain flows and whale addresses (Etherscan, Nansen, Arkham), check liquidity and order‑book depth across centralized and decentralized venues, and expect short‑term volatility after large swaps. Distinguish trade-driven price pressure from fundamental protocol news; use position sizing and diversification when holding mid‑cap DeFi tokens. Keywords: AAVE, whale sell-off, stETH, WBTC, on‑chain analytics.
Bipartisan U.S. House members led by Reps. Max Miller (R-OH) and Steven Horsford (D-NV) have drafted a crypto tax framework that would create a tax safe harbor for routine payments made with regulated, dollar‑pegged stablecoins and defer taxation on blockchain validation rewards. Key provisions propose exempting capital gains on regulated stablecoin payments of small value (example threshold drafted around $200, with peg stability criteria like a $0.99–$1.01 band and issuer standards tied to legislation such as the GENIUS Act), allowing an annual cap on the exemption, and excluding brokers/dealers from the safe harbor. The draft also would permit deferral of staking, mining and verifier rewards (taxed later as ordinary income, possibly up to five years), offer optional mark‑to‑market accounting for eligible traders, extend wash‑sale rules to crypto, and waive appraisal requirements for large charitable crypto donations. The framework aims to align crypto tax treatment with existing securities tax regimes, improve reporting accuracy following IRS moves to push more reporting and cost‑basis obligations onto exchanges (Form 1099‑DA phased in 2025–2026), and reduce compliance burdens for small transactions. Negotiations continue over exact thresholds, anti‑abuse measures and caps. Traders should monitor final language for the size of the safe‑harbor threshold, exclusions for brokers, timing of staking‑reward taxation and any annual caps, as these details could affect transaction costs, tax planning, exchange reporting flows and short‑term stablecoin demand.