Eli Lilly reported late-stage data showing its oral GLP-1 candidate orforglipron maintained patient weight after switching from Lilly’s injectable Zepbound, reinforcing Lilly’s competitive position in the fast-growing GLP‑1 obesity market. The result supports orforglipron as a viable oral alternative to injectables and may sustain positive sentiment and M&A interest around biotech equities. Separately, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), owner of the New York Stock Exchange, is reportedly exploring acquisition of a crypto-focused firm. ICE’s move signals continued institutional convergence with digital-asset infrastructure and could accelerate consolidation in custody, trading and clearing services for crypto. For crypto traders: the ICE development is relevant because an acquisition by a major exchange operator may increase institutional adoption, bolster custody and exchange service providers, and shift sector sentiment—potentially benefiting tokens and firms tied to exchange rails and custody solutions. Primary keywords: Eli Lilly, orforglipron, GLP‑1, Zepbound, Intercontinental Exchange, NYSE, crypto infrastructure, institutional adoption.
Neutral
Eli LillyorforglipronGLP-1 obesityIntercontinental Exchangecrypto infrastructure
A crypto whale lost roughly $38 million after an attacker gained control of a multisig wallet that was effectively a 1-of-1 signer. Early on-chain reports pegged initial losses at about $27.3M; subsequent tracking of associated wallets and leveraged positions raised the total to ~ $38M. The attacker moved about 4,100 ETH (~$12.6M) through Tornado Cash to obfuscate funds and left roughly $2M liquid. Critically, the attacker still controls the victim address, which holds a large leveraged Aave long: ~25,000 ETH supplied as collateral against over $12M in borrowed DAI. On-chain timestamps show the multisig was created and ownership transferred to an attacker-controlled key within minutes, suggesting the private key was leaked during setup or the multisig was maliciously created for the victim. Analysts warn this is part of a wider pattern of private-key theft and social-engineering attacks that target human trust rather than smart-contract bugs. Traders should note immediate liquidation risk for the Aave position and elevated market risk from on-chain movement of large collateral. Recommended defensive measures: use hardware/cold signers, set up true multisig with multiple independent signers, isolate signing devices, verify transactions off-UI, and avoid third-party setup assistance. Primary keywords: multisig exploit, private key compromise, Tornado Cash, Aave, wallet security. Secondary keywords: social engineering, leveraged position, on-chain tracking.
Telegram casino bots are emerging as a mobile-first, crypto-native gambling channel that embeds games (crash, dice, mini-slots, roulette, mines) and payments directly into the Telegram chat interface. Bots manage account creation, balance updates, deposits/withdrawals, bonuses and support, enabling instant, low-friction play. Key drivers are ultra-fast onboarding (often minimal KYC), native crypto payments (BTC, ETH, LTC, DOGE and USDT on TRON/ERC‑20), rapid transaction finality and a terse UI suited to short mobile sessions. Operators use aggressive bonuses and curated directory sites (e.g., Mr. Gamble) to drive user discovery and retention. Safety and legality vary: traders and players should check operator licensing (MGA, audits like eCOGRA), transparent wallet addresses, clear terms and external support. Emerging features — Telegram mini-apps, native wallet integration, AI dealers and token-based loyalty — could broaden functionality and further blur lines with conventional casinos. For crypto traders, the rise of Telegram casino bots signals increasing on-chain payment volumes and new retail demand for stablecoins and low-fee chains (notably TRON/USDT). At the same time, AML and regulatory risks are rising: enforcement or banking restrictions targeting such use cases could disrupt flows or prompt delistings. Traders should watch transaction volume on stablecoin rails, on-chain activity tied to gaming addresses, and any regulatory actions that could reduce on‑chain demand or force migration to privacy or alternate chains.
VivoPower’s digital unit, Vivo Federation, has been mandated by South Korean asset manager Lean Ventures to source $300 million in private Ripple Labs shares for a dedicated investment vehicle serving institutional and qualified retail investors in South Korea. VivoPower says the economic exposure of the structure is benchmarked to XRP and equates to roughly 450 million XRP (about $900 million at announcement), although the vehicle will hold Ripple equity rather than buying XRP tokens directly. VivoPower has approval to purchase an initial tranche of preferred Ripple shares and is negotiating additional purchases from institutional holders. The firm will not deploy its own balance-sheet capital and expects to earn management fees and performance carry, targeting roughly $75 million in net economic returns over three years if the $300 million mandate is reached. The move follows VivoPower’s earlier XRP-related deployments and private placements and signals rising institutional interest in Ripple-linked investments in South Korea. For traders, the deal implies increased institutional demand for Ripple exposure and greater XRP-related economic flows in South Korea, which could raise market attention and liquidity for XRP; however, because the vehicle buys equity not tokens, the direct immediate impact on XRP circulating supply is limited.
On-chain analytics report that institutional broker FalconX moved a large block of Ethereum to wallets attributed to mining giant Bitmain. Early reports cited 30,075 ETH (~$88.3M); subsequent on-chain analysis expanded the figure to 48,049 ETH (~$141.8M) split across two addresses (0x9a93 and 0x611f) linked to Bitmain by Onchain Lens. The transfers appear routed via an OTC/prime-brokerage flow, suggesting discreet institutional accumulation rather than routine operational transfers. Possible motives include treasury diversification from Bitcoin into ETH, preparing for staking on Ethereum’s proof-of-stake network, strategic allocations into DeFi or ecosystem investments, or moving funds to cold storage. Market implications for traders: the outflow of large ETH sums from exchange custody reduces immediately available sell-side liquidity and can raise short-term price volatility; if funds move to cold wallets rather than exchanges, selling pressure is muted, supporting medium-term bullish sentiment for ETH. Attribution is probabilistic — firms use clustering, address interaction and behavioral patterns — so watch for wallet follow-ups (staking activity, DeFi deployments, or returns to exchanges) for clearer signals. Key facts: 30,075 ETH (~$88.3M) initially reported; expanded on-chain trace shows 48,049 ETH (~$141.8M) to addresses 0x9a93 and 0x611f; sender FalconX; destination linked to Bitmain by Onchain Lens. Traders should monitor on-chain activity and order-book liquidity for trading opportunities and risk management.
Bullish
BitmainEthereumFalconXOn-chain analyticsWhale transfer
Exchange-held Ethereum (ETH) balances have fallen to multi-year lows, signaling constrained sell-side liquidity and increased long-term holding. CryptoQuant data cited by analyst Arab Chain shows the Exchange Supply Ratio for ETH at about 0.137 — the lowest since 2016 — while Binance’s share is near 0.0325, indicating sizable ETH outflows from centralized exchanges to external wallets. This decline in exchange supply has continued even amid recent price volatility and a pullback from $3,000 to around $2,900. Traders interpret the trend as reaccumulation behavior: lower exchange reserves reduce near-term selling capacity, which can support price stability or upside and amplify price moves on lower volume. Key trader takeaways: monitor exchange balances, on-chain flows, and order-book depth (especially on Binance) because shrinking exchange liquidity raises execution risk and increases the market impact of large orders. Keep watching macro news, liquidations and ETF-related flows, which can still drive short-term volatility.
The Federal Reserve has rolled back parts of its 2023 supervisory guidance on banks’ exposure to crypto assets, shifting from prescriptive, heightened oversight toward a more principles-based assessment of digital-asset risk. The revisions scale back requirements such as conservatorship-style contingency plans and tight activity limits, and reduce crypto-specific supervisory emphasis. The Fed cites improving industry controls, evolving market practices and a desire to harmonize oversight across banking activities. For banks this means a lower compliance burden for some firms and potential resumption or expansion of services like custody, payments, trading and lending for crypto clients. Traders should watch for increased banking liquidity into crypto markets, new or expanded on-ramps, faster fiat-crypto flows and follow-up supervisory guidance or interagency coordination. Key takeaways for traders: (1) banks may restore or broaden custody and fiat rails, supporting institutional flows; (2) lending and trading desks could reopen or scale, affecting liquidity and leverage conditions; (3) market-moving bank disclosures and regulatory coordination will be important catalysts. Primary keywords: Federal Reserve, crypto rules, banks, digital assets. Secondary keywords: supervisory guidance, bank exposure, custody, trading, risk management.
Bullish
Federal Reservecrypto regulationbanking servicesdigital asset custodymarket liquidity
Bitcoin climbed after the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in cooler than expected, prompting risk-on flows into equities and crypto. The softer inflation print reduced expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes, lifting BTC from short-term support and putting focus back on the $90,000 resistance level. Trading volumes and option activity picked up modestly, while implied volatility eased. Some altcoins saw profit-taking even as BTC led intraday gains. Short-term implications: higher volatility near resistance, possible continuation if follow-up macro prints and Fed commentary remain benign. Longer-term: easing inflation can support risk assets, but traders should monitor on-chain metrics, miner behavior, liquidity and subsequent CPI/Fed signals. Primary keywords: Bitcoin, CPI, inflation, BTC price, Federal Reserve. Secondary keywords: interest-rate expectations, risk-on flows, trading volume, implied volatility, $90K resistance.
Ethereum (ETH) remains in a corrective phase beneath a long-term descending trendline and below the 100- and 200-day moving averages. Daily resistance sits at $3,400–$3,600; a sustained daily close above this zone with strong volume is needed to invalidate the downtrend. Shorter-term action shows ETH trading inside a rising corrective channel within the larger downtrend, but repeated rejections near $3.3K–$3.6K and a recent breakdown of the channel’s lower boundary suggest accelerating downside momentum. Key near-term support is $2,600–$2,800 (previous demand zone and the origin of the prior bullish impulse). On-chain liquidation heatmaps show dense short-liquidation clusters above $3.4K–$3.7K and comparatively thinner long-liquidation clusters below, with the next notable liquidity cluster around $2,600–$2,700. The later report adds that there is also a large, largely untested liquidity cluster near $2,000; analysts warn a liquidity-driven sweep toward $2,000 could occur to clear long leverage and reset funding before a durable bullish structure can form. For traders: monitor the $3.4K–$3.6K resistance for confirmation of a bullish reversal; failure to reclaim that zone keeps downside risk intact and raises the probability of a liquidity sweep toward the $2K area, which would likely trigger forced liquidations and elevated volatility. Keywords: Ethereum, ETH price, technical analysis, liquidity, market risk.
Digital Wealth Partners, a SEC-registered investment adviser and subsidiary of Ascension Group, launched a rules-based algorithmic trading strategy for XRP designed to run inside tax-advantaged retirement accounts (for example, IRAs). The automated strategy — built by algorithmic specialist Arch Public and delivered via separately managed accounts (SMAs) — executes trades from quantitative signals rather than discretionary bets. Qualified custody and insured storage are provided by Anchorage Digital, a federally chartered digital asset bank employing HSMs and a bankruptcy-remote custody structure. Digital Wealth Partners retains fiduciary oversight and positions the product as institutional-style systematic exposure to XRP for qualified investors who want regulated custody and tax-advantaged holdings instead of manual trading. Key themes: XRP algorithmic trading, retirement accounts, regulated custody, fiduciary oversight, and institutional technology applied to individual qualified investors.
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $457 million in the latest session — the third-largest single‑day haul since October — reflecting sustained investor demand for regulated BTC exposure after ETF approvals earlier this year. Major ETF providers captured most of the capital, lifting assets under management and strengthening the ETF on‑ramp for institutional and retail buyers. This follows earlier reports of continued, smaller inflows (previously cited as $352m) and coincides with active flows into XRP-focused funds, which remain a distinct source of investor demand. For traders, the sizable one‑day Bitcoin ETF inflow signals increased liquidity and demand that can support BTC price strength, raise the correlation between spot BTC moves and ETF flows, and, if sustained, compress volatility. Key watch items: follow-up daily flows, relative fee differentials across BTC ETFs, reallocation between BTC and XRP products, and macro headlines that could amplify or reverse the move. Primary SEO keywords included: Bitcoin ETF, BTC inflows, spot ETF. Secondary keywords: XRP funds, crypto funds, exchange-traded products, market liquidity.
Travel Retail Norway (TRN) has enabled Bitcoin (BTC) payments via the Lightning Network for its Klikk & Hent Click & Collect duty‑free pre-order service at Oslo Airport. Powered by Satoshi Consult, customers order on Tax Free Norway, choose Bitcoin at pickup, scan a Lightning QR code in their wallet and pay an amount fixed and settled in Norwegian kroner (NOK) in real time. TRN says it charges no extra retailer fees (network fees originate from wallets or Lightning), refunds are processed in NOK, and the setup complies with Norway’s security, privacy and AML rules. TRN Deputy CEO Haakon Dagestad described the move as expanding payment choice and appealing to crypto‑savvy travelers; the rollout is currently limited to arrivals Click & Collect at Oslo Airport with potential expansion to other airports and stores. For traders: adoption via Lightning improves BTC utility for low‑value, fast payments and raises visibility in travel retail — a small positive adoption signal for Bitcoin, but with limited immediate transactional volume or direct revenue impact.
Amazon Web Services (AWS) now allows customers to settle cloud bills in BNB (BNB Chain’s native token) through an integration with the Better Payment Network (BPN). BPN embeds multi-stablecoin, enterprise-grade payment rails into AWS billing workflows to enable real-time, programmable settlements, lower fees (claimed up to 70% savings versus traditional processors), and smoother cross-border enterprise billing. BPN recently closed a $50 million seed round led by YZi Labs (formerly Binance Labs), signaling institutional backing. BNB Chain and BPN say the solution is designed for high-volume institutional and retail usage and builds on prior AWS–Binance collaborations that use AWS services (Amazon Bedrock, ECS) to improve KYC, automation and diagnostics. Separately, AWS GuardDuty disclosed a crypto-mining campaign that abused compromised IAM credentials and a malicious Docker Hub image (SBRMiner‑MULTI) to target EC2/ECS instances; the image was removed and affected customers notified. Key takeaways for traders: the integration gives BNB increased real-world payment utility at enterprise scale, BPN’s $50M raise strengthens institutional credibility, and ongoing cloud-security risks remain a practical concern for infrastructure and exchange operators.
Binance warned projects about a surge in fraudulent "listing agents" who falsely promise to secure token listings. The exchange reiterated it never authorizes intermediaries and requires teams to apply directly via its official channels for Alpha, Futures and Spot listings. Binance published a partial blacklist of seven entities and individuals (including BitABC and Central Research) identified as impersonators and urged the community to report suspects to audit@binance.com. To deter fraud, Binance pledged legal action and introduced a bounty of up to $5 million for verified tips that identify listing scammers. It also clarified its listing pathways (Alpha → Futures → Spot), evaluation criteria (product quality, utility, traction, liquidity, tokenomics, team background, technical and regulatory compliance), and warned projects that using intermediaries risks instant disqualification and possible blacklisting. The update aims to protect issuers and traders by improving listing governance and reducing scam-related market risks.
JPMorgan has migrated its tokenized deposit product (JPM Coin / JPMD) from a permissioned private chain (Onyx/Kinexys) to Coinbase’s Ethereum Layer‑2 network, Base. The bank says customer demand for executing payments, collateral and margin management on public blockchains drove the move. JPMD represents interest‑bearing digital claims backed by bank deposits and remains permissioned — transfers occur only between pre‑approved institutional counterparties and JPMorgan retains smart‑contract governance, key management and permission controls. JPMorgan argues tokenized deposits can perform payment, settlement and collateral roles similar to stablecoins while offering deposit-like features (including interest) that stablecoin issuers may be constrained from providing under proposed regulations. Deploying on Base aims to deliver faster, lower‑cost transactions and broader connectivity to asset managers, broker‑dealers and institutional clients, though Coinbase warns distribution and interoperability beyond institutional silos remain challenges. For traders: the move increases on‑chain institutional liquidity pathways and infrastructure for collateral and margin flows, which could raise demand for on‑chain settlement rails and reduce friction in institutional crypto trading operations.
Asset manager Bitwise forecasts that strong ETF demand and institutional flows will push Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) to new all‑time highs by 2026. The firm estimates roughly 166,000 new BTC, 960,000 new ETH and 23 million new SOL issuance over the period and expects spot ETFs to buy more than 100% of that new supply — creating sustained buy pressure. Bitwise also predicts a surge in U.S. crypto‑linked ETFs (100+ launches under new SEC listing standards), wider access to spot crypto ETFs, and greater institutional allocation (including half of Ivy League endowments adopting crypto exposure). The report highlights stablecoin growth and tokenization as channels funneling institutional capital onto Ethereum and Solana, expanding on‑chain vault AUM and DeFi TVL. Non‑price risks noted include potential political backlash (stablecoins blamed for emerging‑market currency strains) and macro or regulatory setbacks that could derail the scenario. Key trader takeaways: concentrated ETF buying may reduce BTC volatility and elevate prices, ETH and SOL could receive disproportionate inflows from tokenization and DeFi activity, and crypto infrastructure and equities may outperform broader tech — but outcomes depend on continued ETF inflows and regulatory clarity.
MSCI is consulting on a policy to remove publicly traded companies whose balance sheets are majority cryptocurrency from its investable market indexes. The proposal targets firms that function more as ‘‘crypto-treasury’’ pools than operating businesses — most prominently MicroStrategy — and a preliminary list by BitcoinForCorporations identified 39 potentially affected companies with roughly $113bn combined market cap. Analysts estimate forced outflows from index-tracking passive funds of about $10–15bn if MSCI proceeds, with some estimates concentrated heavily in MicroStrategy (accounting for roughly three-quarters of impact in one scenario). MSCI’s rationale is that including such firms converts equity indexes into de facto crypto exposures rather than collections of operating companies. Affected firms and industry groups argue a single balance-sheet threshold (50% crypto assets) is arbitrary and ignores accounting regimes, business operations, revenue and jurisdictional differences. MicroStrategy formally objected, warning delisting would trigger substantial passive outflows and weaken US competitiveness in digital-asset innovation. MSCI plans a final decision by 15 January 2026 and possible implementation in the February 2026 index review. Traders should monitor the announcement closely: a delisting would likely force immediate selling by ETFs and mutual funds tied to MSCI benchmarks, intensifying near-term downside pressure on affected equities and potentially spilling into crypto markets. Risk-management steps — reducing exposure to crypto-treasury equities, hedging correlated crypto holdings (notably BTC), and preparing for short-term liquidity shocks — are advised until the policy outcome is clear.
Binance is reportedly re-evaluating its US strategy and considering a reduction in founder Changpeng Zhao’s (CZ) ownership to ease regulatory barriers that have hindered deeper US expansion. Bloomberg and other reports say CZ’s large stake has been a principal obstacle in key states. Discussions are early and subject to change. Binance is exploring partnerships with US institutions — names linked include asset manager BlackRock and DeFi-linked World Liberty Financial (WLFI) — to establish a stronger local presence. The renewed focus on the US followed CZ’s presidential pardon in October and his public pledge to help make the US a crypto hub. Binance previously scaled back US operations in 2019, leading to the independent Binance.US (operated by BAM Trading Services); Binance and Binance.US remain separate entities. A US re-entry could unlock substantial liquidity and trading flow for Binance but may prompt political and regulatory scrutiny from US lawmakers. Traders should monitor ownership-structure developments, partnership announcements, regulatory responses, and any changes in Binance’s US access or liquidity, as these factors could influence market sentiment and volume. Keywords: Binance, CZ, US expansion, BlackRock, regulatory risk.
Caroline Ellison, former CEO of Alameda Research and cooperating witness in the FTX prosecutions, was moved from the Federal Correctional Institution in Danbury to a Residential Reentry Management center in New York City on Oct. 16, according to Bureau of Prisons records. Ellison is scheduled for release on Feb. 20, roughly nine months earlier than the full two-year sentence she received after pleading guilty to charges tied to FTX’s collapse. No official reason for the custody change or early release has been provided. Ellison testified at Sam Bankman‑Fried’s 2023 trial, saying Alameda borrowed as much as $14 billion from FTX customer accounts. The coverage also notes continuing civil litigation related to FTX, including a proposed $10 million class-action settlement with Silvergate Bank for depositors who used FTX- or Alameda-linked accounts from 2019–2022; eligible claimants must opt out or file by Jan. 30 and a final approval hearing is set for Feb. 9. Several criminal sentences tied to the FTX collapse have been carried out while related civil cases remain active.
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart and industry observers warn that an oversupply of crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) could lead to widespread liquidations by late 2026–2027. At least 126 U.S. listing filings for crypto ETPs are pending, and more than 100 products could be approved in 2026 following the SEC’s new generic listing standards that speed commodity-trust listings. Many issuers are launching multiple ETPs that may fail to attract sustainable assets under management (AUM); several crypto ETPs (for example, ARKY and ARKC) have already been liquidated this year. Historical ETF data cited show heavy fund launches and closures: roughly 746 ETFs debuted in 2024, about 800 new funds in the first nine months of 2025, 266 fund closures in H1 2025, and ETFGI’s 622 closures in 2024. The SEC’s late-September guidance removes the need for individual 19(b) approvals for qualifying commodity trusts and permits accelerated or automatic effectiveness under Rule 461, lowering barriers and likely increasing competition and issuance. For traders, the main implications are: elevated product supply and competition for flows; likely concentration of capital into larger, established funds as weak ETPs are closed; potential liquidity shifts and selling pressure around liquidations; and heightened short-term volatility in underlying crypto assets and ETP prices. Traders should monitor new filings, approvals, fund launches, AUM levels, and announced liquidations, as these events can prompt rapid reallocations and transient price moves in major crypto markets.
XRP closed decisively below the long-held $2 support, signaling a bearish shift as sellers gain control. Key technicals — 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs — are trending lower and the MACD histogram is deepening below zero, indicating strengthening downside momentum. Analysts identify $1.63 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2024–25 rally from $0.43 to $3.66) as the next likely target on further weakness. Short-term resistance to flip the outlook bullish sits at $2.27 (the late-November bounce high); a sustained close above that level would be needed to restore buyer confidence. Traders should watch volume and momentum for confirmation. Near-term macro drivers, especially upcoming U.S. CPI data, could alter market risk appetite: softer-than-expected inflation may spur a crypto bounce, while hotter data could accelerate selling. For trading: a sustained close below $2 raises the odds of a larger pullback toward $1.63, while failure to hold that level would open lower supports; conversely, a decisive breakout above $2.27 is required to invalidate the bearish case.
Bearish
XRPtechnical analysissupport and resistanceFibonacci retracementU.S. CPI
Coinbase has introduced a Custom Stablecoins service on Coinbase Business that lets companies mint branded, USDC-backed stablecoins while Coinbase manages issuance, custody, compliance and reserve management with 1:1 backing. Positioned for corporate payments, treasury use, loyalty programs and tokenized credits, the hosted offering lets issuers preserve branding and convert points or credits into liquid, tradable digital dollars that can settle on-chain and move across wallets and blockchains. Coinbase says the service leverages its regulatory infrastructure and large user base (100M+ wallets) and will monetize via redemption spreads, transaction and custody fees; it also links potential yield to usage and transaction activity. The product highlights cross-chain interoperability (Chainlink integration), collaborations with custody and tokenization partners (R2, ETHA/BlackRock), and integrations across the Coinbase stack (Base app, fiat onramps, instant trading for new Solana assets). Coinbase framed the launch among broader platform updates including stock trading, prediction markets, simplified futures UI and primary token sales. Observers note the service could displace white‑label stablecoin providers by combining issuer branding with Coinbase’s compliance and custody, potentially reshaping corporate payments and loyalty infrastructure.
NEAR Protocol (NEAR) fell sharply after Bitcoin’s recent swing from $90.2k to $85.7k increased market volatility and altcoin selling pressure. Over the past week NEAR lost about 11.38% and 5.74% in 24 hours. Futures open interest briefly rose ~13.1% to $138M and funding turned briefly positive, but optimism evaporated as BTC pulled back. On-chain and technical indicators show bearish momentum: NEAR broke its long-term range ($1.82–$3.38), closed a weekly candle at $1.59 below the $1.72 support, and On‑Balance Volume (OBV) and RSI are declining. Analysts say $1.82 now acts as resistance; failure to reclaim that level on a daily close keeps a bearish path toward the next major support around $0.97 (approximately 30–35% below current levels). Trading guidance for short-term traders: consider short exposure on rebounds into the $1.7–$1.8 supply zone with invalidation as a daily close above $1.82, monitor BTC for stabilization to limit downside, and avoid panic selling during consolidation. Key data points: weekly loss ~11.38%, 24‑hour loss ~5.74%, open interest up ~13.1% to $138M, BTC drop ~5.6% (90.2k→85.7k). Disclaimer: analysis, not financial advice.
Bearish
NEARBitcoin volatilityTechnical analysisFutures open interestAltcoin sell-off
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded significant net inflows driven by major issuers, while spot Ethereum ETFs saw modest outflows. According to Farside Investors via COINOTAG and fund-flow reports, combined US Bitcoin spot ETFs logged roughly $457.3 million of inflows in the session. BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC were the largest contributors (IBIT +$111.2M, FBTC +$391.5M in the later report) and earlier-day data showed Fidelity’s FBTC alone had a $199M one-day inflow and has amassed about $12.3B since launch. Smaller issuers trimmed positions (Bitwise BITB and ARK ARKB posted net outflows). By contrast, US spot Ethereum ETFs posted a net outflow (~$22.4M), led by BlackRock’s ETHA and Fidelity’s FETH. These flows indicate selective rotation among crypto ETFs: strong demand for top-custodian Bitcoin products, mixed interest in Ethereum vehicles, and issuer-level momentum driving reallocation between BTC and ETH. For traders: large ETF inflows can boost institutional bid and short-term liquidity for BTC, potentially supporting price upside and increased volatility; concentrated inflows into specific funds may shift order flow intraday. Monitor fund-level flows, redemption activity, and ETF-related liquidity as potential catalysts for short-term BTC/ETH moves.
Ark Invest, led by Cathie Wood, purchased about $25.3 million of crypto-related equities across its ETFs (including ARKW and ARKF), signaling continued institutional interest in crypto infrastructure and exchange operators. Reported allocations include roughly $10.56M in Bitmain (mining hardware/infrastructure), $8.85M in Bullish (crypto exchange/trading platform) and $5.9M in Coinbase (public crypto exchange). Earlier coverage listed slightly different breakdowns that included BitMine stock, Circle Internet Group, Block Inc., and Ark’s own Bitcoin ETF, indicating the firm has executed multiple buys across mining, exchanges and crypto-finance firms. The trades increase Ark’s equity exposure to the crypto sector rather than direct holdings of cryptocurrencies, a distinction important for traders: equity moves will reflect company fundamentals and sentiment, not mirror crypto price action exactly. For traders, the purchases may boost market sentiment for crypto-related equities and exchanges, but individual stock performance will vary; investors should perform due diligence and differentiate between equity exposure and direct crypto positions.
Coinbase is expanding beyond spot crypto by adding commission-free U.S. stock and ETF trading plus prediction markets as part of its “everything app” strategy. Announced by Coinbase’s product leadership, the stock feature enables 24/7 trading of equities and ETFs “powered by crypto.” Prediction markets are launching via a partnership with Kalshi and will roll out to U.S. users, with broader expansion planned. Coinbase also plans to introduce 24/7 perpetuals early next year offering up to 50x leverage on crypto and stock bets. The moves are designed to increase user engagement, cross-sell products, diversify revenue, and compete with traditional brokerages and fintech apps. Detailed fee structures and exact rollout timelines were not fully disclosed. For traders: these features may boost on-platform liquidity, widen derivative exposure, and increase correlation between crypto and equity order flow — factors that could affect intraday volatility and execution dynamics.
Bitcoin long-term holder (LTH) supply has fallen to about 14.34M BTC, the lowest since May, reflecting aggressive distribution by holders with coins held 155+ days. Glassnode and on-chain analysts identify three distinct LTH sell waves since late 2023: following U.S. spot ETF launches, during the run toward $100,000, and a third wave that continued while BTC traded above $100,000. These repeated distributions helped drive an approximate 40% correction from October’s all-time highs and represent sustained sell-side pressure from historically patient holders. On-chain commentators highlight two critical liquidity clusters around $85,200 (downside) and $91,000 (upside continuation) that traders should monitor. The cycle’s multiple sell waves contrast with prior single blow-off distributions (2013, 2017, 2021), increasing the probability of higher volatility and event-driven moves (for example, central bank decisions). For traders, the immediate implications are heightened supply-side pressure, elevated short-term volatility, and the need to watch LTH flows, spot liquidity zones (~$85.2K and $91K), and order-book absorption when planning entries, stop placement and sizing.
Bearish
BitcoinLong-term holdersOn-chain analysisLiquidity levelsMarket distribution
Hyperliquid’s governance (Hyper Foundation) has proposed permanently burning roughly 1 billion HYPE held in its Assistance Fund. Validators will signal intent on December 21, with final results by December 24 and staking to follow. The Assistance Fund tokens are already isolated in an address without a private key; the vote would establish a social and protocol-level commitment that those tokens remain unrecoverable. If approved, the burn would remove a material chunk of supply (over 10%–depending on which supply metric is used), tightening tokenomics and creating a potential scarcity-driven re-rating if demand returns.
Market context: HYPE has fallen from prior highs (mid-$30s) to the mid-$20s and is testing a key support area near $20. Trading volumes have weakened — spot and perpetual activity has dropped sharply — even as futures open interest has shown periods of strength and funding rates have turned positive in some windows, indicating rising bullish positioning ahead of the vote. December token unlocks (roughly 10 million HYPE this month, ~20 million since November) are small relative to the proposed burn but could add short-term selling pressure.
Trading implications: The vote outcome is the immediate catalyst. A passed burn would likely be bullish on medium to long horizons by reducing available supply; traders should watch validator stake-weighted voting results, on-chain flows from unlocked tokens, futures open interest and funding rates, and whether $20 holds as critical support. If the burn is rejected, the protocol retains flexible supply tools (grants, emergency liquidity), which removes the scarcity narrative and could keep HYPE under pressure until demand growth resumes. Key keywords: Hyperliquid, HYPE token burn, Assistance Fund, validators, circulating supply, open interest, funding rates.
Bitfinex has removed trading fees across its entire platform effective immediately. The zero-fee policy covers spot, margin, perpetual derivatives, tokenised securities and OTC trades for both makers and takers. CTO Paolo Ardoino said the move aims to boost liquidity, cut costs for retail and institutional users, and attract new customers amid weakening volumes — CoinMarketCap data showed monthly spot volumes fell from over $500B in early November to about $250B in mid‑December. Analysts say the change makes Bitfinex a more cost‑competitive venue and may shift order flow and arbitrage routes between centralized exchanges. Separately, Solana wallet Phantom launched Phantom Prediction Markets in partnership with Kalshi (a CFTC‑regulated platform), enabling in‑app trading of tokenised positions on real‑world events; Phantom warns of jurisdictional restrictions, volatile pricing, limited liquidity and regulatory risk, and recommends Bitfinex for funding wallets. This development could intensify exchange competition on pricing and liquidity, alter trader routing and liquidity‑provision strategies, and benefit cost‑sensitive arbitrageurs in the short term.