Latest Crypto News | Bitcoin, Ethereum and Altcoin Updates

Fortune, citing SEC disclosures, reports that Crypto VC AUM fell across 2025 for major firms, reinforcing that crypto VC performance remains tightly linked to market drawdowns. Crypto VC AUM at a16z (four flagship funds) dropped nearly 40% to about $9.5B. The article notes the decline isn’t only from losses: strong realized value from distributions is highlighted by the first fund’s net DPI of 5.4x. Multicoin’s Crypto VC AUM was cut by more than half to roughly $2.7B, pressured by broad crypto weakness and its hedge/VC hybrid structure; co-founder Kyle Samani left in February. Pantera Capital also saw AUM compression, but the article points to IPO-driven cash inflows and active LP distributions in 2025, including Circle and BitGo exits (five IPOs cited). The standout exception is Haun Ventures, where Crypto VC AUM rose over 30% to nearly $2.5B, supported by a BVNK acquisition by Mastercard (up to $1.8B cited) and a new ~ $1B fund launch. Despite the AUM reset, fundraising continued: Paradigm (up to $1.5B), a16z Crypto (up to $2B), and Dragonfly closed a $650M fund. For traders, the takeaway is cyclical: bear markets can compress Crypto VC AUM, but strong DPI, visible exits, and fresh fund closes may signal an opportunity window for the next cycle rather than an immediate sector collapse.

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson urged policymakers to prepare a “break-the-glass” plan if U.S. Treasury demand weakens. He warned that a U.S. Treasury market breakdown could worsen borrowing costs and trigger a fiscal feedback loop—lower appetite for Treasurys can push yields higher, straining the financial system. A key transmission channel for crypto is stablecoins. Paulson highlighted heavy Treasury exposure among stablecoin issuers, especially Tether (USDT). If confidence or liquidity deteriorates, stablecoin stress could amplify volatility across crypto markets. The article also notes U.S. debt above $39T and rising concerns. In response, U.S. officials announced liquidity steps including a large Treasury buyback: $15B of older securities maturing in 2026–2028 to retire less-liquid bonds and inject cash. For traders, the main variable is U.S. Treasury demand: it can drive macro risk-off, tighten global liquidity, and raise the odds of “flight to alternatives” such as BTC and gold. However, timing will depend on dollar and liquidity conditions, so expect potential headline-driven swings.

Reports say whales bought 270,000 BTC over the past 30 days, strengthening bullish sentiment. In Polymarket’s Bitcoin prediction markets, “Bitcoin above” levels were priced near 100% YES on April 16, while the April 20 contract for staying above $62,000 traded around 99.6% YES—suggesting traders expect sustained support. Market microstructure also points to resistance against downside volatility. USDC flows were sizable (about $1.21M traded in 24 hours), and order-book depth indicated it would take roughly $62,837 of buy pressure to move the market by 5 points. The article links the renewed Bitcoin demand to macro hedging narratives, citing geopolitical stress (including reports of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire breakdown) and energy-market volatility. For traders, the key near-term catalyst is further development in Russia-Ukraine and U.S.-Iran negotiations. If risk appetite stays supported, the setup favors BTC on a near-term horizon; if geopolitical conditions ease or macro hedging demand fades, odds could cool and limit upside momentum.

US-Iran peace deal progress is in focus after Trump signaled he could visit Pakistan if an agreement is signed. Traders read the Pakistan-mediation angle as a positive timing signal, and the “US-Iran peace deal” prediction market repriced sharply. Key contract shifts in the US-Iran permanent peace deal market: - Apr 22, 2026: YES ~22.5% (about $1 payout if resolved by then) - Apr 30, 2026: YES ~41.5% - May 31, 2026: YES ~57.5% - Jun 30, 2026: YES ~70% The term structure steepened: a ~21-point jump between Apr 30 and May 31 implies traders expect an early-May catalyst tied to Pakistan-mediated “Round 2” talks in Islamabad. The narrative also references specific figures in the market story (e.g., Sharif and Munir) and hints of Iran aligning with US demands, including “enriched uranium stockpile” handover language. What traders should watch next: - Any official announcements from Islamabad (Round 2) - Confirmation from Trump / Pakistani officials and Iran’s response Liquidity snapshot: related contracts saw about $711k in combined daily USDC volume, suggesting active positioning around the new timeline pricing.

XRP is up about 6.4% over the week, outperforming BTC, ETH, and BNB. Price pushed to around $1.43 but failed to clear the $1.44 resistance zone. The rally looks like steady, cautious accumulation, with no sharp speculative spikes. However, weekly average volume is only ~70% of normal, implying weaker momentum and a higher chance the move turns into consolidation. Technically, XRP keeps forming higher lows, which remains constructive. Traders are watching $1.40 as the key short-term support. Holding above $1.40 would help buyers maintain control, but without a volume resurgence the risk of a pullback stays elevated. Overall, XRP’s advance is not yet confirmed as a breakout.

US Senator Elizabeth Warren has challenged Elon Musk’s X Money, the payments feature being built into X. In her letter, Warren questioned how X Money can offer a 6% return on deposits when the federal funds rate is about 3.5%–3.75%. Warren also raised consumer-risk and data-practice concerns, pointing to X Money’s partner, Cross River Bank, which previously faced FDIC-related enforcement actions. She warned that X Money’s potential expansion into stablecoins and other crypto could weaken the broader financial system and raise national-security concerns. A central issue is the GENIUS Act, which would let private firms issue dollar-backed tokens and could enable X to launch its own stablecoin. Warren asked whether users will clearly be told that their funds would not receive FDIC deposit insurance under GENIUS. FDIC Chair Travis Hill previously indicated such deposits via platform-like structures would not be covered, and noted that pass-through insurance would likely conflict with the law’s intent. Musk has not publicly responded. For crypto traders, this creates regulatory overhang around X Money and stablecoins, with uncertainty around consumer protection and the backstop for customer funds.

HIVE Digital Technologies will raise $75M via a private offering of zero-interest exchangeable senior notes due 2031, with an option to add another $15M. The HIVE exchangeable notes will be sold to qualified institutional buyers and can be exchanged for cash, common shares, or a mix of both. HIVE plans to use proceeds for capital investment across its subsidiaries, including GPU purchases and data center development to expand high-performance computing and AI services beyond traditional crypto mining. Operationally, HIVE reported revenue of $93.1M (+219% YoY), but also posted a net loss of $91.3M, largely tied to depreciation and other non-cash items from its Paraguay buildout. The company also has conditional approval to upgrade its listing to the Toronto Stock Exchange, with trading expected later this month after meeting requirements. The broader miner landscape remains pressured: reported BTC reserves fell from about 1.86M BTC to 1.80M BTC as some large operators sell to manage costs. For traders, this reinforces ongoing market appetite for AI/data infrastructure, but near-term sentiment around HIVE and mining-linked flows may still sway BTC. Key point: HIVE exchangeable notes signal continued capex, while BTC supply dynamics from miners remain a watch item.

CFTC rulemaking will continue without delay, CFTC Chair Michael Selig said at a House Agriculture Committee hearing on April 16, 2026, despite the agency operating with only one active commissioner after resignations in 2025. Lawmakers warned the lack of bipartisan, five-member governance could increase the risk of unilateral decisions and that major CFTC rulemaking should not be finalized until the commission is fully staffed. Selig rejected slowing the process, saying continued CFTC rulemaking is necessary for investor protections, consumer safeguards, and overall market safety. The article points to key agenda items that could matter for crypto-adjacent markets: clearer rules for digital-asset classification and a more defined framework for crypto trading; tighter oversight of prediction markets, potentially affecting platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket; and preparation for AI-related financial market rules via a new task force. Separately, state-versus-CFTC jurisdiction disputes remain a volatility driver. States have sued prediction market firms, arguing the CFTC’s “exclusive jurisdiction” stance creates loopholes that may cost states tax and enforcement revenue while reducing consumer protection. Traders should watch for near-term drafts and enforcement signals around event contracts/derivatives linked to crypto and prediction-market liquidity. With commissioner nominations still uncertain, the timing of implementation may fluctuate, adding event-driven volatility around regulation headlines.

Zonda Wallet says its cold Bitcoin wallet holding about 4,500 BTC is inaccessible due to missing or untransferred private keys. CEO Przemysław Kral claims the keys were never handed to the current team and points to former CEO Sylwester Suszek, missing since March 2022. Kral denies any misappropriation, shares the wallet address, and blockchain data cited in the report shows the wallet was last active in November 2025. The balance is estimated at roughly $330M, raising immediate custody and solvency concerns. Users also report withdrawal delays. The article says Zonda received more than 25,000 withdrawal requests within days around April 6—far above normal—triggering manual BTC and ETH processing and slowing throughput further. It also cites sharp hot-wallet declines (to about 0.18 BTC in March 2026 from over 55 BTC in 2024), fueling liquidity anxiety. Zonda rejects insolvency claims, says its site remains stable, and threatens legal action against media it accuses of false reporting that may have intensified withdrawals. The dispute has reportedly reached Poland’s parliament, where lawmakers question whether the 4,500 BTC could be permanently lost. For traders, this Zonda Wallet episode combines custody/key risk with withdrawal-queue pressure and potential liquidity stress, typically a short-term bearish setup for BTC sentiment and market stability.

XRP ETF trading volume jumped to $26.02 million, pointing to renewed institutional demand. BankXRP data shows combined daily XRP ETF volume rose to $26.02M. Bitwise led turnover with $11.14M, followed by Franklin Templeton at $8.39M and 21Shares at $3.76M. For traders, the activity is spread across multiple XRP ETF issuers, suggesting broader scaling of regulated XRP exposure rather than interest concentrated in one product. Institutional positioning also strengthened. Bitwise’s SEC filing (107 pages) reportedly showed $267M in new XRP ETF share creations, typically read as fresh underlying inflows. Teucrium’s XRP ETF was also reported to attract over $500M in inflows within 12 weeks. Overall, the XRP ETF volume spike plus large creation/inflow figures may support near-term momentum. If inflows persist across issuers, participation could become steadier over time.

Kalshi vs Nevada is a landmark US case shaping how prediction markets are regulated. At the Ninth Circuit, Kalshi argues its event-based contracts are “swaps,” which should fall under exclusive CFTC oversight. Nevada says the same contracts are gambling and therefore require state gaming licenses. For traders, the ruling matters because prediction markets often resemble financial derivatives in structure. If the court confirms CFTC jurisdiction, it could reduce regulatory uncertainty and support broader market access. If the court sides with Nevada, platforms may need to redesign products and comply with state-by-state licensing, potentially increasing volatility around prediction-market-adjacent crypto narratives. The latest coverage also highlights the enforcement pattern at the state level. Arizona attempted a similar push, but a federal court issued a preliminary injunction blocking enforcement. Coinbase’s Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal expects a wider conflict between federal and state authority, with a possible Supreme Court escalation that could create a binding national standard. Near-term market impact is likely limited until the appellate decision—or a Supreme Court review—clarifies the jurisdictional line for prediction markets.

Anthropic has started selectively requiring ID verification for some Claude subscribers, triggered for certain accounts rather than rolled out universally. In a mid-April 2026 help-center update, the company said some users may be asked to verify their identity with Persona before accessing specific Claude capabilities. In triggered cases, users must use a camera-enabled device and submit a physical government-issued photo ID (passport, driver’s license, or national ID card) plus a live selfie scan. Anthropic rejects screenshots, digital copies, and non-government credentials. It says Persona runs the workflow, while Anthropic only uses the verification results as needed for account review or appeals. The data is encrypted and claimed to be excluded from model training and not used for marketing. User reaction is sharply negative, with many calling it “AI KYC” and comparing Anthropic’s approach to competitors that reportedly do not require the same ID verification step for standard chatbot access. For crypto traders, the direct effect on token prices is likely limited, but the backlash could influence broader sentiment toward AI platforms tied to privacy and compliance narratives.

Cardano (ADA) is trading near the $0.243 pivot after a mild market pullback. The zone has historically triggered reversals, but repeated failures can weaken support and open the door to deeper declines. Bullish condition: buyers need to hold $0.243. If price stabilizes and holds above it, the article points to a potential move toward $0.30 (about +23%). Bearish trigger: a confirmed daily close below $0.243 would damage ADA’s market structure and likely increase selling pressure. Downside target in the bearish case is estimated near $0.10 (about -58%). The latest rebound also shows ADA underperforming: it gained just over 2%, while BTC and ETH rose more (~5.6% and ~9%). ADA remains below its 50-day SMA near ~$0.26, suggesting weaker momentum than BTC/ETH. Volume is softer too (down ~20% to ~$471.5M), implying limited follow-through risk. Traders should treat $0.243 as the immediate decision point for ADA. Momentum indicators in the earlier read were mixed, and positioning/liquidation dynamics suggest downside risk is not fully off the table.

XRP rallied about 6.34% to around $1.44 this week, outpacing Bitcoin with roughly triple the upside. Spot plus derivatives activity jumped to about $1.81B in a single day, highlighting renewed trader focus on XRP. The key level is the $1.44 resistance zone, repeatedly tested and rejected over the last two weeks. Short-term momentum looks stretched: the daily RSI is 67.7. If XRP loses strength, support sits near $1.38 (around the 50-day moving average), with a potential extension to $1.35 on a deeper breakdown. Derivatives signals are constructive but not euphoric for XRP. Open interest stands at about $414.8M and funding rates are near-flat at 0.0015%, suggesting longs are not overly crowded and reducing the risk of sudden liquidation cascades. Still, broader risk sentiment remains cautious, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 23 (Extreme Fear). Traders will likely look for a daily close above $1.44 and a reclaim of it as support. Upside is next eyed around $1.54 near the 200-day moving average, while rejection at $1.44 could quickly cap gains.

On-chain data shows Bhutan bitcoin transfers totalling 250 BTC in 24 hours (about $18.46m). Arkham data indicates two quick transactions: 162 BTC and 69.7 BTC. After the outflows, Bhutan’s wallets hold roughly 3,524 BTC, down sharply from a late-2024 peak near 13,000 BTC. The timing has revived “Bhutan bitcoin” sell-side speculation. Earlier moves were linked to Galaxy Digital and OKX, though the latest tranche is not confirmed as an exchange deposit. The lack of major inflows into Bhutan’s official wallets (over $100,000) for more than a year is also fueling debate about slower mining or a strategy change. Market context remains tense near resistance. Glassnode flags BTC resistance in the $74,000–$76,000 band. CryptoQuant notes the share of large transfers heading to exchanges rising from below 10% to nearly 40% in days, while realized daily profits approach $500m. Mining economics are still strained, with reported all-in costs around $79,500 and a forecast ~3% difficulty drop on April 17, alongside a ~4% hash-rate decline in Q1 2026. For traders, repeated Bhutan bitcoin outflows increase short-term supply-overhang risk while BTC tests resistance.

Bitcoin quantum security is back in focus after Blockstream CEO Adam Back said the community should prefer optional, opt-in quantum-resistant upgrades rather than protocol-enforced freezing under BIP-361. Speaking at Paris Blockchain Week, Back warned that “preparation is much safer than hasty responses,” arguing that waiting for a real-world quantum break is too risky. The dispute centers on BIP-361, “Post-Quantum Migration and Legacy Signature Sunset.” It outlines a phased approach: about 3 years after activation (Phase A) to stop new payments to legacy addresses, then roughly 5 years after activation (Phase B) to invalidate legacy ECDSA and Schnorr signatures. Under the plan, coins that do not migrate to quantum-resistant output types would be effectively frozen. The article cites estimates that around 1.7M BTC (about 34% of supply, including Satoshi-era holdings) remain in quantum-exposed address formats. Back rejects the freeze mechanism as a “red line” for decentralization and censorship resistance, calling it protocol-level expropriation even if framed as security. Traders should treat this as a governance-and-timeline headline risk for Bitcoin quantum security, not an immediate on-chain change. Sentiment may shift around long-term custody, migration expectations, and narratives about “forced changes,” increasing volatility tied to upgrade timelines.

Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF, MSBT, reportedly pulled in more than $100M in inflows in its first week, including $83.6M into Bitcoin exposure. Despite the strong institutional demand, the article says the near-term impact on Bitcoin price predictions looks limited. Traders are focused on the April 15 window. The prediction market shows 100% odds for Bitcoin landing in the $78,000–$80,000 range as that date approaches, while a downside scenario to $60,000 for April currently has no displayed odds. Geopolitics—especially U.S.-Iran tensions—is highlighted as a key variable for spot moves. For longer-dated sentiment, the probability of “Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by Dec 31, 2026” edged up from 34% to 38%. Liquidity is cited as a constraint on pricing sensitivity: daily USDC volume is around $1,600, and it takes roughly $8,640 to move odds by 5 percentage points, meaning single large orders can still shift prices. What to watch next: U.S.-Iran developments, Federal Reserve messaging, and any further Bitcoin allocations from major asset managers. Overall, this Bitcoin ETF launch is a concrete demand signal, but macro and geopolitics still dominate short-term direction for BTC.

The Pentagon munitions shortages are worsening as the US-Iran conflict drags on, and the Pentagon has asked GM and Ford to expand military production and shift to a “wartime footing.” The move reflects worries that existing defense contractors cannot meet current demand and points to a longer engagement timeline rather than a quick diplomatic off-ramp. For crypto traders watching related prediction markets, “Military action against Iran ends” is priced at extreme certainty across short windows in late March to early April 2026 (implying near-zero odds of an earlier resolution). The coverage also notes there is essentially no trading volume for this market at the time of writing, so price action may be thin and sensitive to any new de-escalation signals. What matters next: ceasefire or de-escalation updates (highlighted via Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s briefings) are likely to drive repricing more than industrial-capacity headlines. In short, Pentagon munitions shortages are pulling GM and Ford into weapons output, while market pricing suggests traders expect a very specific near-term timeline—yet expectations could move quickly if diplomacy progresses.

Hyperbridge hack losses have risen to $2.5M, up from the initial $237K estimate, after an updated incident report. The Hyperbridge hack traced to a Token Gateway vulnerability used in two stages: the attacker first drained about 245 ETH, then sent a fraudulent cross-chain message that bypassed Merkle Mountain Range (MMR) proof verification. The exploit enabled minting of nearly 1 billion bridged DOT and sales into existing liquidity. Impacted funds were concentrated in incentive pools across Ethereum, Base, BNB Chain, and Arbitrum. Hyperbridge says only the Token Gateway and related bridged token contracts were affected, with no reported impact to native DOT on Polkadot or assets bridged via other providers. Trading/actionability for crypto traders: the bridging functionality via the Gateway has been suspended indefinitely until a patched fix and independent security audit are completed. Hyperbridge is coordinating with Binance and law enforcement for freezing/recovery, and expects restitution could take months up to a year. If recovery fails, affected users may receive BRIDGE token compensation (timed after one year from the attack). Net takeaway: the Hyperbridge hack highlights ongoing cross-chain bridge verification risks, which can temporarily disrupt bridged asset liquidity and trader sentiment even when native tokens are unaffected.

On-chain data shows SHIB saw a supply shift: about 82.5B SHIB were withdrawn from exchanges in 24 hours after a small uptick in price. This points to reduced near-term selling pressure. Still, the overall flow picture is mixed. Exchange netflow remains positive (inflows > outflows), though the gap is narrowing. Large-wallet behavior is improving gradually: top-wallet outflows are rising, and the 7-day average outflow increased by more than 30%, while smaller holders continue depositing to exchanges. Price action remains contained. SHIB trades around $0.000006124, up 4.26% in 24 hours, with low volatility and price hovering near short-term moving averages. The broader trend looks downward, but the sell-off has slowed into a low-volatility consolidation. For traders, the key is whether SHIB exchange inflows keep weakening versus outflows. A sustained shift to negative netflow would strengthen the odds of a firmer upside rebound.

Ripple’s US dollar-pegged stablecoin RLUSD is now accepted as futures collateral on Bitrue. Traders can use RLUSD as margin instead of more volatile assets, which may improve capital efficiency and help reduce liquidation risk in leveraged positions. RLUSD’s credibility also received an upgrade: Deloitte confirmed RLUSD is fully backed by 1:1 reserves. This independent reserve verification is designed to strengthen confidence in the peg amid broader scrutiny of stablecoin backing. Outside of trading, RLUSD is being piloted for digital tax payments in Ghana. The project targets digitizing tax collection, reporting, and payments for micro, small, and medium-sized businesses using blockchain settlement rails. For crypto traders, the most immediate catalyst is the Bitrue futures collateral integration for RLUSD, while the Ghana program signals longer-term real-world adoption.

Ether (ETH) open interest (OI) rose 26% to about $25.4B, after the broader derivatives complex posted an earlier 11.59% single-day increase. ETH was trading roughly $2,356–$2,395, with a 24h high near $2,384, as traders returned to ETH futures leverage. The key read-through for traders: ETH open interest is rising without a clear one-to-one improvement in on-chain fundamentals, pointing more to speculative positioning than spot-led demand. Concentration also stands out—Binance leads with about $7.416B (~29% of ETH futures OI), followed by Gate, Bybit and OKX. Together, these venues hold roughly 53.3% of global ETH derivatives, which raises liquidation cascade risk if price breaks. Market focus is $2,400 resistance. In a tight trading range, higher ETH open interest has historically preceded volatility expansion, but the article cautions that it does not confirm trend durability. Ahead of the April 2026 ETH futures expiry (ERJ26), mechanical unwinds could pressure price even if spot sentiment remains firm. What to watch next (2–3 weeks): a clean break above $2,400 could trigger additional short liquidations; stabilization before ERJ26 may compress volatility; and a downside unwind through the ~$2,312 support area could mirror the March-style leverage flush.

Rapper Tyga has joined the 1win VIP Program, confirmed through 1win’s official Owner channels on X and Telegram. The move came after days of speculation, sparked by Tyga being spotted on a branded 1win private jet and posting related content. 1win says Tyga received a premium VIP setup, including a private jet flight and an Audemars Piguet Royal Oak 14700BA heritage watch. 1win frames the VIP push as part of a broader strategy to blend product, service, and culture, integrating high-profile talent into its Web3 and crypto iGaming ecosystem rather than using traditional endorsements. For traders, the key link to markets is promotional rather than protocol-related. 1win reiterates a crypto-first model with fast transactions, support for BTC, ETH, TRX, TON, and SOL, and incentives cited as deposit bonuses up to 600%. No new tokenomics or market-structure changes were announced alongside the VIP Program update. Potential effect: increased brand attention could drive short-term user inflows toward 1win and therefore activity in supported coins, but any direct price impact is likely limited without further exchange-level or token-level developments.

At Paris Blockchain Week 2026, Ripple executive Markus Infanger said major banks are reluctant to move $1B+ transfers to blockchain rails. He argued the barrier is institutional trust and operational reliability, not blockchain technology. Banks must maintain flawless settlement for high-value payments and still rely on legacy, heavily regulated infrastructure. Infanger added that traditional payment flows keep an estimated $3T–$5T tied up annually in credit risk controls, settlement delays, and liquidity buffers, with even more capital stuck in older systems despite modern customer interfaces. Even if pilots work, banks worry about settlement reliability at scale. For crypto traders, the key takeaway is pacing: Ripple is pushing next-generation settlement on the XRP Ledger for instant, low-cost cross-border payments, but with an interoperability-first approach rather than an overnight replacement of SWIFT-like systems. This implies near-term adoption may be slower than market expectations, which can temper momentum, while the “compliant, gradual integration” narrative can still support XRP-linked sentiment. Keywords: XRP Ledger, blockchain settlement, bank adoption, interoperability, cross-border payments.

Justin Sun escalated his feud with World Liberty Financial (WLFI), describing the Trump-linked venture as “tyrannical.” He alleges WLFI has the ability to freeze token holders—potentially including his own holdings—and claims a new governance proposal is an “absurd governance scam.” The proposal would extend WLFI token lockups for early investors: trading would be restricted for two years, then followed by a further two-year vesting period. WLFI says 80% of the relevant holdings are already locked. If the one-week vote passes, holders of 17 billion WLFI tokens would not be able to fully trade until 2030. Sun also questions governance legitimacy, alleging control is held by an anonymous 3/5 multisig and an “anonymous guardian” that can blacklist addresses and act at the contract level, potentially overriding votes. He urges holders to oppose the measure and preserve legal options. For traders, the risk is mostly liquidity and governance-driven volatility around WLFI unlock timing. WLFI is trading just under $0.08, down ~20% on the week and ~76% from shortly after it became tradable last fall, after hitting around $0.077 over the weekend.

CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin exchange inflows spiking as BTC tests the $76,000–$76,800 resistance zone. Exchange inflows reportedly reached ~11,000 BTC (highest since late Dec 2025), with transfers to major venues such as Binance driving a sharp rise in “whale” deposits. The average BTC exchange deposit climbed to ~2.25 BTC, and large-holder inflows jumped from under 10% to over 40% of total inflows—historically a distribution-style sell signal. Traders should watch the on-chain realized price area (~$76,800). Similar behavior in Jan 2026 previously capped BTC and preceded a sharp drawdown. If this pattern repeats, BTC may face rejection, increasing short-term volatility and raising the risk of a pullback toward the next support around $74,000, with ~$67,600 flagged as the next key level. A partial counterbalance comes from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which added about $411 million on Tuesday (SoSoValue), supporting demand into April. Net effect: the exchange inflows signal elevated rejection risk near $76K, but ETF inflows may reduce the severity of any selloff.

Novora Research found that in 150+ crypto protocols, disclosure of market maker deals (market maker terms) is extremely rare: under 1% publish details. The study reviewed multiple sectors (DeFi, Layer 1, Layer 2, AI, infrastructure and stablecoins) using 15 public disclosure checks per protocol. Only one protocol—Meteora—publicly disclosed market maker deals via its 2025 Annual Token Holder Report. Novora notes that market maker deals can affect day-to-day trading and token price behavior, but most teams keep these arrangements opaque. Revenue visibility is better but fragmented. 91% of protocols show traceable revenue data somewhere (dashboards or third-party research), yet only 3% maintain a dedicated investor relations hub. Token-holder materials are also limited: 8% publish token holder reports, and only 5% run dedicated investor channels. The report also evaluated the Blockworks Token Transparency Framework (TTF): about 9% of the dataset filed it, and notably, no Layer 1/Layer 2/infrastructure protocol did. On token economics, 38% use active value accrual, while 62% provide governance rights only; perpetuals show a higher active model rate (62%) than Layer 1/Layer 2 (12%). For traders, the key takeaway is that market maker deals remain largely unobservable. This can increase uncertainty around liquidity and short-term price pressure, even when revenue metrics are available.

Developers are debating a quantum-risk response that challenges BIP-361. Instead of an upfront, time-based plan to freeze vulnerable coins, BitMEX Research’s “quantum canary” would trigger restrictions only after a real cryptographic break of Bitcoin’s ECDSA is proven on-chain. The proposal uses a canary fund: a valid Bitcoin address with an unknown private key. A bounty funded to it can be unlocked only by a machine that can break ECDSA. If the bounty is spent, a soft fork would automatically impose a retroactive freeze on legacy/unmigrated wallets and provide public evidence that the signature scheme has been compromised. A “safety window” aims to also freeze funds sent shortly before the trigger, to deter stealth theft. Critics argue the plan relies on an attacker choosing the bounty payout rather than attempting a larger-scale theft—potentially undermining the goal that BIP-361 seeks to solve. Context matters for traders: Ark Invest estimates around 34% of Bitcoin’s supply has an exposed public key on-chain, and research and industry voices disagree on timing and severity of quantum threats. Casa CTO Jameson Lopp also objects, saying this kind of contingency violates the principle that no external party should freeze user funds. bitcoin BIP-361 is now at the center of a trade-off: earlier, scheduled restrictions versus reactive, proof-based controls that could still fail under worst-case attacker behavior.

Dogecoin (DOGE) rose about 3.34% in 24 hours, climbing from roughly $0.093 to $0.09603 and outperforming Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) as traders rotated into higher-beta crypto. The latest momentum showed a technical breakout with higher lows and accelerating buy pressure in the final hour, supported by stronger volume during the push through ~$0.097. Still, DOGE’s rally appears leverage-led rather than demand-led. On-chain activity (daily active addresses and broader network usage) continued trending lower, while derivatives open interest increased—an indication that the move may rely on leveraged positioning. That divergence can make DOGE vulnerable to a fast unwind if sentiment flips. Key levels for DOGE traders: $0.096 as near-term support (a close below weakens the setup), the deeper support zone at $0.092–$0.090 (loss increases risk of a sustained drop), and $0.104 as resistance (only a clean, volume-backed break would better confirm a broader reversal).