Aave DAO voters rejected a proposal to transfer off-chain brand assets (domains, social accounts, trademarks, GitHub and naming rights) from Aave Labs to DAO control. The vote closed Dec. 25 with record turnout: ~1.8M AAVE in voting power. Results: 55.3% NO, 3.5% YES and 41.2% ABSTAIN. Snapshot data showed concentrated voting power — the top three wallets held over 58% of votes (largest ~27.1%, aci.eth ~18.5%) — raising concerns about decentralization and vote representation. The proposal had been proposed by former Aave Labs CTO Ernesto Boado to better align economic risk borne by $AAVE holders with control over brand assets. The governance clash followed controversy after Aave Labs integrated CoW Swap into app.aave.com, which redirected swap fees to an Aave Labs wallet rather than the DAO treasury — a change critics estimated could divert up to ~$10m annually. Aave founder Stani Kulechov publicly supported alignment but disclosed a personal $15m $AAVE purchase before the vote, saying the buy reflected conviction and was not intended to sway governance. Aave DAO’s treasury reported strong performance (about $140m revenue in 2025), and Kulechov pledged clearer explanations of how Aave Labs products create value for $AAVE holders and better Labs–DAO alignment. Key implications for traders: governance tensions persist between Aave Labs and token holders; concentrated voting power keeps representation and decentralization risks elevated; potential follow-up proposals on fee routing or asset control could spur volatility; leadership moves and public token buys may affect market sentiment and liquidity for AAVE. Primary keywords: Aave, AAVE token, DAO governance, treasury revenue, governance vote. Secondary/semantic keywords: brand assets, CoW Swap, fee routing, vote concentration, Stani Kulechov.
Sberbank, Russia’s largest bank, has issued a pilot corporate loan secured by domestically mined cryptocurrency to Intelion Data JSC, one of the country’s largest miners. The mined coins (including Bitcoin) are held in Sberbank’s Rutoken custody system for the loan term to reduce custody and volatility risk. Sberbank Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov said the transaction tested digital-collateral processes and compliance workflows that could inform upcoming regulation. The pilot anticipates planned changes from the Bank of Russia that would broaden crypto trading and derivatives access for retail and qualified investors by July 1, 2026. The move follows Russia’s 2024 mining regulation—though fewer than one-third of miners have registered—within a sector estimated at roughly 200,000 farms and significant concentration among large operators (Intelion, Bitriver). Key implications for traders: (1) increased institutional acceptance of BTC and other mined assets as bank-backed collateral; (2) potential rise in demand for on-chain custody and custody-as-a-service offerings like Rutoken; (3) miners gaining access to liquidity without selling holdings, which could reduce selling pressure; and (4) regulatory developments that may change mining economics and capital flows in Russia. Traders should monitor further bank pilots, registration uptake among miners, and the Central Bank’s regulatory timeline, as these factors could affect regional BTC supply dynamics and custody demand.
Tokenized commodities — blockchain-backed digital representations of physical metals — have climbed to an estimated $3.93 billion after rising about 11% in the past month, driven by record highs in precious metals. Spot gold peaked near $4,530/oz and silver briefly hit $74.56/oz. RWA.xyz data show Tether Gold (XAUt) leads the market at roughly $1.74 billion and Paxos Gold (PAXG) follows at about $1.61 billion. Tokenized precious metals enable on-chain transfers outside traditional market hours, but pricing, liquidity and redemption remain tied to legacy markets and off-chain infrastructure.
Ethereum dominates tokenized real-world assets (RWA), holding approximately 65% of tokenized RWA value (~$12.7B), with BNB Chain around 10.5% (~$1.85B). Standard Chartered projects tokenized RWA (excluding stablecoins) could expand to $2 trillion by 2028, with about $250 billion flowing into less liquid asset classes such as private equity and commodities. On-chain activity from RWAs is increasing Ethereum fees (Ethereum recorded ~$11.41M in fees over the past 30 days) but remains small versus stablecoins and fungible-token trading; chains dominated by stablecoins (Tron, BNB Chain, Solana) currently capture larger fee shares.
For traders: rising tokenized commodity market caps and record metal prices signal growing institutional and retail interest, especially for Ethereum-based tokenized assets. Expect potential increases in on-chain trading volume and liquidity for XAUt and PAXG, greater correlation between crypto and precious-metal markets, and persistent counterparty and redemption risks tied to off-chain custodial and pricing mechanisms. Watch Ethereum activity and fee metrics for signs of growing RWA flow, and monitor liquidity/redemption terms of individual tokenized metal products before trading.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered an ’extreme fear’ reading of 20 on Dec. 26, marking about two weeks of elevated fear — one of the longest such streaks since the index began in 2018. The index fell three points on Dec. 26 and has weakened steadily since October following a near-$500 billion market drawdown tied to US–China tariff tensions and an October 10 liquidation wave. The gauge combines volatility, trading volume, social sentiment, Google Trends, investor surveys and Bitcoin dominance.
Data providers report sharply reduced retail engagement: Google search and Wikipedia traffic, forum activity and social volume have dropped to typical bear-market levels. Crypto-native retail is said to be largely sidelined after shocks such as the FTX collapse, memecoin crashes and absent altcoin seasons. Traditional retail flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs remain strong (over $25bn in 2025), even as BTC trades roughly 30% below its October all-time high. Analysts warn macro uncertainty — notably Fed policy and potential changes to rate-cut expectations — could push Bitcoin lower; some market voices see scenarios where BTC falls toward the mid-five-figure range.
For traders: the persistent ’extreme fear’ reading raises downside risk and the potential for amplified volatility and larger liquidations. Monitor Bitcoin dominance, volatility spikes, Google Trends and social-volume metrics for early signs of sentiment inflection. Prioritise risk management, position sizing and liquidity planning until retail engagement and macro clarity improve.
A supply‑chain attack on Trust Wallet’s Chrome browser extension (v2.68) was disclosed on 26 December 2025 after an official update injected malicious code that phished seed phrases and drained users’ wallets. Approximately $6.7–7.0 million across Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana was stolen from hundreds of addresses, with individual losses ranging from ~ $50,000 up to $3.5 million. On‑chain investigators (ZachXBT, Lookonchain and others) traced laundering routes through services such as ChangeNOW and FixedFloat and observed funds moving towards exchanges including KuCoin and HTX. Trust Wallet released v2.69 to remove the malicious code, advised users to uninstall v2.68, assume seed compromise and migrate assets to new wallets; mobile Trust Wallet and core private‑key infrastructure were reported unaffected. Binance founder Changpeng Zhao confirmed Binance (owner of Trust Wallet) will fully reimburse verified victims and said core systems remain secure. For traders: expect short‑term sell pressure and heightened caution around browser‑extension custody, possible exchange inflows as attackers cash out, and a spike in on‑chain monitoring activity. Actionable steps: monitor on‑chain movement and exchange deposit flows (KuCoin, HTX), avoid interacting with suspicious extensions, and advise affected counterparties to move funds to new wallets or hardware wallets. Primary keywords: Trust Wallet, Chrome extension hack, supply‑chain attack; secondary keywords: seed phrase theft, Binance reimbursement, wallet security.
Ethereum plans two protocol-level upgrades in 2026: Glamsterdam (mid‑2026) and Heze‑Bogota (late‑2026). Glamsterdam targets throughput and node costs by introducing parallel transaction processing, a major gas‑limit increase (projected ~60M → 200M), and a shift toward ZK-based validation for validators. Early tests show multi-fold throughput gains (developer estimates range from severalx to orders of magnitude), with potential to reduce L2 congestion and lower fees. Heze‑Bogota focuses on privacy, censorship resistance and decentralization by reducing exposed transaction data and limiting reliance on centralized infrastructure while maintaining auditability. The upgrades are sequenced: Glamsterdam first to boost speed and capacity, then Heze‑Bogota to add privacy protections. Market context: ETH traded under $3,000 (~$2.8–$2.9k) at reporting, with $3,000 as immediate resistance; a technical indicator cited suggested a bullish close to 2025 and a strong start to 2026. Traders should monitor developer calls, testnet deployments, gas‑limit changes and ZK validation milestones. Realized benefits and any material price upside depend on successful implementations, testnet results, broader crypto market conditions and potential short‑term bearish pressures.
Trust Wallet confirmed a security incident in its Chrome browser extension version 2.68 after on-chain investigator ZachXBT reported multiple user wallets drained on Dec 25. The attacker injected malicious code in an extension update, draining approximately $6–7 million in user funds. Cybersecurity firm PeckShield estimated over $6M stolen, with roughly $2.8M still in hacker-controlled addresses and more than $4M moved to centralized platforms including KuCoin, HTX, ChangeNOW and FixedFloat. Binance co‑founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ), who holds a majority stake in Trust Wallet, said the company will cover losses for affected users. Trust Wallet advised web-extension users to disable the extension immediately, enable Chrome Developer mode to inspect, and upgrade to version 2.69 — mobile wallet users and other extension versions are not affected. Independent investigators are collecting theft addresses to trace on-chain flows; affected users should contact Trust Wallet support. Trader actions: check your Trust Wallet extension version, disable and update if on 2.68, move high-value assets to cold wallets, avoid interacting with suspicious extension prompts, and monitor on-chain flows and exchange deposits tied to the exploit.
Lugano has expanded its Plan ₿ program so residents and merchants can pay and accept municipal invoices and everyday purchases using Bitcoin (on‑chain or Lightning) and USDT. Payments route over Lightning or are processed by Bitcoin Suisse and are immediately converted to Swiss francs, with an embedded ~1% FX/processing fee; the city does not hold crypto on its balance sheet. The MyLugano app offers up to 10% LVGA token cashback at participating merchants; LVGA can be spent on municipal services, creating a city‑backed circular payments loop. Over 350 merchants accept Lightning payments and the Plan ₿ Forum attracted more than 4,000 attendees in October 2025, indicating growing real‑world usage. For traders, the rollout increases localized, persistent utility demand for BTC (more hot‑wallet receipts and Lightning onboarding) while creating steady sell‑side conversion pressure as receipts are flipped to CHF. Near‑term price impact is likely limited — liquidity, ETF flows and funding rates remain dominant drivers — but the initiative strengthens structural demand and broadens use‑case narratives that can support long‑term price floors for BTC.
Neutral
Bitcoin paymentsLightning NetworkLugano Plan ₿Stablecoins (USDT)Merchant adoption
Crouton Digital, an institutional-grade blockchain infrastructure provider based in Riga, raised $1 million in strategic funding to expand validator operations, public and private RPC endpoints, archive nodes, Node-as-a-Service (NaaS) and institutional staking products across 45+ networks. The firm is shifting from a validator-focused operator to a full-spectrum Web3 infrastructure provider, emphasizing bare-metal, multi-region deployments, internal telemetry, dashboards and high-availability architecture to support low-latency, high-throughput, mission-critical workloads during congestion, upgrades and peak usage. Crouton participates in early validator alignment and support programs for next-generation and existing protocols including Monad, Starknet, Somnia Network, Story Protocol, IOTA and Walrus, aiding incentivized testnets, mainnet launches and governance activation. The company holds a verified AAA (VSP) reliability rating from Staking Rewards and has begun SOC 2 and ISO/IEC 27001 certification processes to meet institutional compliance expectations. Funding will be used to scale global multi-region validator operations, roll out RPC and archive node services, grow institutional staking offerings (delegation, white-label validators, reporting) and enhance observability and automated reliability tooling for protocols, funds, custodians and enterprise clients. Key SEO keywords: Crouton Digital, RPC nodes, Node-as-a-Service, institutional staking, validator operations.
Mutuum Finance (MUTM), a decentralized lending protocol, has made notable presale progress and is preparing a coordinated testnet and token launch. The presale has raised about $19.45 million from a fixed 4 billion MUTM supply; the current phase price is $0.035 and early-phase allocations are nearly fully sold (current phase ~98% sold, 825M tokens sold across presale stages). Over 18,600 holders have joined and card payments with no purchase limits were recently enabled to broaden access. The project implements two lending models: Peer-to-Contract (P2C) for liquid, well-known assets (initial launch assets ETH and USDT) that mint mtTokens for depositors, and Peer-to-Peer (P2P) for higher-volatility tokens allowing direct lender–borrower terms. Features include variable and stable-rate options, a Stability Factor for overcollateralization, automated liquidations and a liquidator bot. Security checks reported include a CertiK token scan and an independent Halborn Security audit (reported complete in the later update). V1 is scheduled for Sepolia testnet in Q4 2025 with coordinated token listing and platform launch planned to provide immediate utility. Analysts cite tight early allocations and whale interest as scarcity drivers; some bullish scenarios project significant upside (conditional on execution and adoption). For traders, key takeaways are rapid presale uptake, limited remaining supply at early pricing, planned testnet timeline that may influence listing and liquidity, and mandatory overcollateralization which affects use-case risk. This is a sponsored press release and not investment advice — perform your own due diligence.
XRP is trading around $1.85, down ~15% in December, but analysts attribute the weakness to derivatives-driven pressure ahead of a large global options expiry included in a $7.1 trillion event. Market analyst Zach Rector warns that leveraged long liquidations tied to the expiry could push XRP briefly to $1.60–$1.70 as a short-term washout to clear leverage. Rector and other observers note ongoing structural demand: five U.S. spot XRP ETFs (Canary Capital, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, 21Shares) launched in mid-November and have recorded roughly $1.14B net inflows with AUM near $1.25B, absorbing selling pressure while BTC/ETH ETFs saw outflows. Ripple executives highlight XRP’s utility for liquidity and cross-border settlement, and institutional interest — plus potential adoption catalysts such as Japanese bank integrations (e.g., SBI) and FX volatility — could support medium-term revaluation. Social metrics show unusually negative retail chatter, historically a contrarian signal during institutional accumulation. Key signals for traders: (1) watch the global options expiry as a likely short-term volatility catalyst and possible stop-run that could create a buying opportunity; (2) monitor continued ETF inflows as a structural demand indicator; (3) expect potential short-lived shakeouts to $1.60–$1.70 before a medium-term repricing toward analyst targets of $3–$5 by 2026 if institutional flows and adoption persist.
Bitcoin (BTC) tested resistance near $90,000 as markets reopened after the holidays, trading up over 2% in Asian hours. Traders highlighted about $24 billion of bitcoin options set to expire around the Wall Street open — an event seen as a potential reset that could remove hedging pressure and allow more "organic" price discovery. Option-driven flows and short-term volatility contributed to more than $200 million in liquidations during the latest move. BTC is attempting to break a two-month downtrend that began in October; analysts say a confirmed daily close above current resistance could open a path to $95,000 and the $100,000 area near the 50-day moving averages (50-day SMA ≈ $91,458; 50-day EMA ≈ $92,651). On-chain commentators and traders expect improved market conditions in January as asset managers rebalance, which could support further upside. At the same time, precious metals extended rallies — gold and silver hit record highs in Asian trading, and silver briefly exceeded bitcoin by market capitalisation on some metrics. Key trading cues for crypto traders: monitor BTC daily close and acceptance above $95K, watch options open interest and expiry flows for reduced hedging pressure, and track 50-day moving averages as resistance near $91–93K and around $100K. This summary does not constitute investment advice.
Neutral
BitcoinOptions expiryLiquidationsTechnical levelsGold and silver
Onchain analytics provider OnchainLenz reported that a wallet labelled to QCP Capital moved 400 BTC (≈ $35.7M) and 200 ETH (≈ $597K) — roughly $36.3 million — into Binance. Large deposits to a major centralized exchange often increase sell-side liquidity and can presage short-term selling pressure, though such flows can also reflect custodial transfers, collateral posting, OTC settlement or portfolio rebalancing. Traders should treat this as a data point: monitor follow-up on-chain activity (withdrawals back to cold storage or onward transfers), Binance order-book and funding-rate changes, and broader macro and technical signals before taking positions. The transfer underscores institutional activity and tests market depth for BTC and ETH; if Binance absorbs the inflow without major slippage, it indicates demand resilience, whereas aggressive execution into the order book could produce short-term downside.
Trust Wallet’s browser extension (v2.68) was compromised after a malicious update was published to the Chrome Web Store, allowing attackers to drain users’ crypto. Security firm PeckShield revised estimated losses from $2.8M to roughly $6–7M. The exploit affected BTC, Ethereum-compatible chains and Solana; about $2.8M remains in attacker-controlled addresses while most stolen funds were moved toward centralized exchanges (notably ChangeNOW, KuCoin and FixedFloat). Trust Wallet issued a patched extension (v2.69) and warned desktop users not to open the extension to avoid triggering the exploit. Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) said funds are "SAFU" and Binance will use its treasury to reimburse victims. Investigations are focusing on how a malicious extension update passed publishing controls — a likely release-pipeline or insider compromise. Trader actions: update or remove the Trust Wallet browser extension immediately; avoid interacting with suspected attacker addresses; monitor inflows to centralized exchanges for potential cash-outs. Binance’s reimbursement plan may reduce immediate sell pressure, but ongoing forensic/legal actions and funds routing to exchanges create short-term volatility risk. Keywords: Trust Wallet, browser extension hack, Binance, wallet security, reimbursement.
Layer‑1 token prices posted sharp declines across 2025 even as on‑chain fundamentals showed resilience. Major year‑over‑year losses included TON (-73.8%), AVAX (-67.9%), SUI (-67.3%), SOL (-35.9%) and ETH (~-15.3%); BNB (+18.2%) and TRX (+9.8%) were among the few gainers. Token Terminal data highlighted divergent economic metrics: Tron led annual network revenue (~$3.5B), well ahead of Ethereum (~$305.3M) and Solana (~$206.8M). Fee generation was highest on Solana (~$699.9M), followed by Ethereum (~$549.3M) and BNB Chain (~$260.3M). Monthly active addresses remained elevated—BNB Chain (~59.8M), Solana (~39.8M), NEAR (~38.7M), Sei (~10.6M), Bitcoin (~10.3M) and Ethereum (~9.3M)—indicating sustained user activity despite price corrections. The reporting frames 2025 losses as market repricing and fading speculative premiums after October highs rather than structural failure: capital and activity are concentrating on economically productive chains. For traders, the key takeaway is that on‑chain metrics (revenue, fees, active addresses) can diverge from token prices and serve as indicators of relative value and resilience during risk‑off periods. Monitor Token Terminal and similar on‑chain dashboards to spot networks with real usage that may act as relative refuges or outperformers as markets transition into 2026.
Analyst Ben Cowen says Ethereum (ETH) is unlikely to make a new all-time high in 2026 unless Bitcoin (BTC) exits any bear market — ETH remains tightly correlated with BTC cycles. Cowen warns a rapid move toward ETH’s prior peak of $4,878 could be a bull trap that reverses sharply toward the $2,000 support area, exposing late buyers to losses. He also noted Ethereum is the only altcoin he considers capable of reclaiming its ATH eventually, while many smaller altcoins have “exhausted their momentum.” Other market voices cited broader downside risk for BTC and ETH: trader Peter Brandt projected BTC could fall to $60,000 by Q3 2026, and Fundstrat flagged a potential 2026 drawdown that could push ETH to $1,800–$2,000. Actionable takeaways for traders: monitor Bitcoin’s market phase closely; treat any swift ETH approach to $4,878 as a potential sell, hedge, or high-risk short opportunity; consider accumulating near $2,000 if you trust ETH’s fundamentals and dollar-cost averaging; avoid chasing smaller altcoins that lack momentum. Keywords: Ethereum, ETH, Bitcoin, BTC, all-time high, bull trap, $4,878, $2,000, altcoins.
A prominent on-chain trader known as pension-usdt.eth has shifted from long to short after realizing over $25 million in cumulative profits. According to Lookonchain, the trader closed prior ETH long positions taking $278,000 in realized gains, then opened a leveraged short: 20,000 ETH at 3x leverage (approximately $58.44 million notional value). The move represents a significant directional bet against ETH and follows substantial profit taking. This development is relevant for traders because large leveraged positions and flips from profitable whales can increase short-term volatility and influence market sentiment around ETH. Key data: >$25M total profits, $278K realized from closing longs, short: 20,000 ETH at 3x (~$58.44M notional).
Solstice updated its public sale terms, confirming that SLX tokens from the public sale will be 100% unlocked at token generation event (TGE). A 14‑day refund window will be available after the sale for investors concerned about near‑term USX volatility. Solstice says SLX issuance is on schedule with the TGE targeted for Q1 2026 and no delays reported. The team is actively managing liquidity — including LP and market‑making measures — after a brief USX depeg tied to liquidity strains; the peg has largely recovered. Prior public sale activity took place on Legion. The update aims to preserve investor liquidity, align with governance disclosure standards, and reassure markets ahead of the planned TGE.
CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index sits at 16, signaling a Bitcoin-dominated market where roughly 16% of the top 100 non-stablecoin tokens have outperformed BTC over the past 90 days. The index compares 90-day returns of the top 100 coins (excluding stablecoins and wrapped tokens) against Bitcoin; readings above 75 denote an altcoin season. The low reading reflects risk-off sentiment, rising Bitcoin dominance and institutional flows into BTC (notably via Bitcoin ETFs). Some niche sectors such as DePIN and RWA show isolated strength but lack the market-wide capital rotation needed to lift the index. Analysts note the metric is a 90-day, lagging regime indicator — it confirms shifts rather than predicts immediate reversals. For traders, the takeaway is to favour BTC or selectively allocate to vetted altcoins with clear utility, reduce overexposure to high-risk tokens, and watch for a sustained index move above 50 (and especially 75), or clear catalysts such as cross-chain ETF approvals or positive regulatory clarity, as signs of broad altcoin rotation.
Bearish
Altcoin Season IndexBitcoin dominanceAltcoinsCoinMarketCapMarket sentiment
Ethereum has seen sustained spot-ETF outflows since Dec. 11, totaling roughly $853.9 million over two weeks, with only Dec. 22 recording a notable $84.6 million inflow. Major withdrawals have come from BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Ethereum Fund (FETH), signaling an institutional year‑end pullback. ETH traded near $2,900–$2,964 at the latest checks, down from August highs and roughly 12% lower week‑on‑week in earlier reports. Trading volume, derivatives volume and open interest have fallen, indicating reduced leverage and lower conviction. Technical indicators (RSI <50, MACD bearish, lower highs/lows) point to short‑term downside bias; key supports are $2,880–$2,980 with $2,500 flagged as a critical level if outflows continue. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw larger concurrent outflows (~$1.538B over the same period). By contrast, XRP ETF flows showed steady inflows and net assets above $1.16B, reflecting stronger institutional interest. For traders: monitor ETF flows, spot liquidity and on‑chain whale activity; manage risk with position sizing, stops near support levels, and watch RSI shifts for early divergence that could signal a reversal.
US major indices closed slightly lower: Nasdaq -0.09% (weekly +1.22%), Dow -0.04% (weekly +1.2%), S&P 500 -0.03% (weekly +1.4%). Spot silver jumped about 10% intraday, breaking $79/oz and rising more than 173% year-to-date. Spot gold gained 1.12% to $4,531.1/oz, up roughly 4.44% for the week. Blockchain-related equities mostly fell: MicroStrategy (MSTR) rose 0.06% while another listing for Strategy (MSTR) showed -1.18%; Twenty One Capital (XXI) -1.36%; Circle (CRCL) -1.66%. The report is for market information only and not investment advice.
On-chain data from Onchain Lens shows a single high-activity wallet accumulated a total of 59,955 AAVE by purchasing AAVE with ETH across multiple transactions. Initial activity deployed 1,086 ETH (≈$3.17M) to buy 20,375 AAVE; over the following four days the same address added 1,586 ETH (≈$4.7M) to acquire 30,003 AAVE, producing an average entry near $156.65 per token. The wallet now holds AAVE valued at about $9.24M but faces an unrealized loss of roughly $4.26M, reflecting recent AAVE price declines and market volatility. For traders, the move signals deliberate accumulation by a large holder using ETH liquidity, highlights concentration risk and potential selling pressure if the whale seeks to rebalance, and underscores volatility in DeFi tokens paired with Ethereum. Primary keywords: AAVE, whale accumulation, ETH, unrealized loss.
Coinbase’s 2026 outlook predicts cryptocurrencies will move from a niche speculative market into the core of global finance by 2026, describing the change as “extraordinary and transformative.” The report highlights expanding institutional adoption, growth in on‑chain settlement and tokenized assets, improvements in custody, compliance and payments infrastructure, and new revenue opportunities for exchanges and custodians. Coinbase expects increasing regulatory clarity to accelerate institutional flows, and forecasts that tokenization of real‑world assets and programmable money will reshape capital markets. The paper cites potential increases in on‑chain transaction volumes, settlement activity and assets under custody as key metrics to watch. While noting risks — regulatory uncertainty, macroeconomic shocks and technology or security failures — Coinbase frames the next three years as a pivotal adoption window that could materially expand crypto’s role in payments, capital markets and financial infrastructure. Primary keywords: Coinbase, crypto adoption, tokenization, institutional flows. Secondary/semantic keywords: on‑chain settlement, custody, regulatory clarity, programmable money.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index ticked up from 20 to 23, signaling a modest improvement in investor sentiment while remaining in the “Extreme Fear” zone (0–25). The index aggregates volatility, market momentum/volume, social media, surveys, Bitcoin dominance and Google Trends. The recent rise reflects slight price stabilization and modest volume upticks, but analysts warn the index is often a lagging indicator that confirms reduced selling pressure rather than forecasting sustained rallies. In 2025, sentiment is shaped by macroeconomic uncertainty, evolving regulation in major jurisdictions and industry maturation that dampens retail-driven speculation. For traders, extreme fear typically means lower leverage, risk-off positioning and potential accumulation by long-term holders; it can present buying opportunities for long-horizon investors but should not be used as a standalone buy signal. Recommended actions: dollar-cost average (DCA) to accumulate at lower prices, reassess risk tolerance and combine the index with on-chain metrics, fundamentals and technical analysis because negative sentiment can persist. Key stats: index = 23 (Extreme Fear); component weights — volatility 25%, momentum/volume 25%, social media 15%, surveys 15%, Bitcoin dominance 10%, Google Trends 10%.
Neutral
Fear & Greed IndexMarket SentimentBitcoin DominanceTrader Risk ManagementCrypto Regulation
This article presents the second part of a framework explaining how liquidity and risk appetite drive cryptocurrency cycles within global asset rotation. It classifies assets by pricing mechanisms: global-priced assets (crypto, gold, major commodities) sensitive to dollar liquidity, real rates and global risk sentiment; locally-priced assets (equities) driven by country-specific structural factors; and jurisdiction-priced assets (sovereign bonds) tied to national fiscal/monetary credibility. The piece argues crypto reacts fast and transparently to liquidity shifts but depends more critically on shifts in global risk tolerance than on monetary easing alone. Practical steps for traders include mapping a panoramic global-asset view, identifying shared macro drivers, distinguishing pricing mechanisms, and locating each asset in the cycle to convert macro views into concrete asset-rotation decisions. Key trader takeaways: monitor dollar liquidity, real rates and risk-on/risk-off indicators; separate liquidity expansion from genuine increases in risk appetite; treat crypto as a late-cycle, high-beta liquidity expression rather than a pure store of value. The framework is positioned as a decision tool — not a prediction — and encourages applying live data and capital-flow signals to time rotations across crypto and traditional markets.
Bitmain committed 74,880 ETH (about $210 million, March 2025 prices) to Ethereum staking, representing roughly 2,340 validators and one of the largest institutional staking moves since The Merge. The accumulation took place over several months via multiple exchanges and private wallets, indicating coordinated, price-conscious buying and enterprise-grade staking infrastructure. At the same time, infrastructure provider Shapelink unstaked 35,627 ETH (≈$100 million) over a 48‑hour period, a planned treasury reallocation enabled by post‑Shanghai withdrawals. Onchainlens reported both moves. The contrasting transactions highlight institutional diversification into proof‑of‑stake validation, growing professionalization of staking operations, and improved liquidity for large stakers. Key implications for traders: increased institutional staking can reduce sell-side pressure and strengthen network security but may compress staking yields; large exits demonstrate available liquidity and potential for short-term supply adjustments. Regulatory, tax, and compliance considerations remain material for corporate stakers and can influence timing of on/off‑chain moves.
Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson says Web3-native platforms such as XRP and Cardano are outpacing legacy finance in tokenization efforts. Speaking after discussions around the Canton Network, Hoskinson argued traditional institutions are attempting to replicate systems already built for Web3 but at a much smaller scale. He cited real-world assets (RWA) tokenization as a transformative market opportunity, estimating it could be worth roughly $10 trillion. Hoskinson highlighted XRP’s large idle supply — he estimated over $100 billion of XRP currently yield-free — and proposed integrating XRP liquidity into Cardano DeFi to unlock dormant capital, boost yields, and increase Cardano’s TVL. He also mentioned Cardano’s privacy sidechain Midnight and emphasized interoperability and partnerships (not competition) with ecosystems like XRP to capture liquidity and institutional capital. Hoskinson believes purpose-built Web3 platforms have structural advantages over legacy finance in the tokenization race.
Nvidia structured a $20 billion agreement to license key assets and hire Groq’s senior leadership rather than execute a formal acquisition. Groq founder and CEO Jonathan Ross, president Sunny Madra, and other executives will join Nvidia while Groq remains an independent entity led by finance chief Simon Edwards. The deal is framed as a non-exclusive license and selective asset purchase, following a trend among major tech firms to secure AI talent and IP without triggering full merger reviews. Analysts say the move helps Nvidia both offensively — pulling inference technology in-house to deny rivals access — and defensively — reducing antitrust exposure and speeding deal closure. Market context: Nvidia (NVDA) has about $60.6 billion in cash and short-term investments (Q3 2025) and its stock rose modestly on the news; NVDA is up ~42% year-to-date. Key questions remain over who owns Groq’s LPU intellectual property and whether remaining Groq cloud operations could compete with Nvidia-licensed services. Further public commentary is expected at CES on Jan. 5 when CEO Jensen Huang speaks.
Bullish
NvidiaGroqAI chipsAntitrustMergers and acquisitions
The New York Fed reported $30.5 billion of failed settlements in 10‑year Treasury trades for the week ending Dec. 10 — the largest weekly delivery fails since 2017. The fails centered on the most recently issued 10‑year note from a $42 billion Nov. 12 auction. Lending rates on that note plunged into negative territory in repo markets, prompting near‑guaranteed settlement failures. Market participants attribute the stress to the Federal Reserve’s reduced reinvestment and balance sheet runoff: the Fed added only $6.5 billion of that auction to its System Open Market Account (SOMA), materially less than prior reopenings (Feb: $11.5B; May: $14.8B; Aug: $14.3B). Lower maturing SOMA volumes and caps on reinvestment reduced the Fed’s support for auctions, tightening available supply and exacerbating borrowing strains. A Dec. 15 reopening failed to alleviate scarcity. Treasury yields moved little after the holiday; the 10‑year yield was about 4.13% while the 2‑year fell to ~3.48%. Recent economic data (jobless claims and Q1 GDP growth) also influenced short‑end moves. Key takeaways for traders: large delivery fails signal acute scarcity in specific Treasuries, can drive volatility in repo and rates markets, and may widen cross‑asset stress — important for risk models, funding costs, and stablecoin/Treasury‑backed instrument exposures.
Neutral
US TreasuriesFederal ReserveDelivery failsRepo marketsInterest rates