Bitcoin underperformed major assets in Q4 2025, returning just 5.8% since January versus more than 100% gains in the Nasdaq and S&P 500. A wave of sell pressure has emerged as long-term holders realise profits around the $100,000 level, with spent volume surging each time Bitcoin tops that mark. In October, a single whale transferred over $600 million in BTC to exchanges, intensifying outflows. On the supply side, miners including Core Scientific, Iris Energy, TeraWulf, Bitdeer, CleanSpark and Riot Platforms are shifting hash power to AI data centres under multi-year HPC hosting deals, risking a drop in hash rate and network security. Demand has cooled: Bitcoin ETF inflows have flatlined since mid-July, and US government seizures of billions in BTC have dented its anti-censorship appeal. Some investors are rotating into privacy coins such as ZEC. Traders should watch whale deposits and ETF net asset growth for relief signals.
Thailand’s Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Cyber Crime Investigation Bureau (CCIB) raided a Worldcoin-linked iris-scan site for offering unlicensed WLD token exchange services. Authorities arrested staff for violating digital asset laws. The facility issued digital credentials via iris scans and distributed WLD tokens without SEC approval.
Worldcoin, backed by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, operates over 100 “orb” stations in Thailand. It says it only issues WLD tokens where legal and does not oversee third-party trading. The raid follows global probes in Germany, Kenya and Brazil into its biometric crypto model and highlights tightening crypto regulation and digital asset compliance.
Recent Worldcoin partnership with Polymarket expands WLD token utility into prediction markets. Traders should monitor these regulatory developments. Enforcement actions may affect WLD token liquidity and market sentiment.
Tether’s QVAC division has launched Genesis I, a synthetic AI dataset of 41 billion tokens designed for STEM model training. This Tether AI dataset, validated through a multi-stage process using scientific and educational content, aims to enhance reasoning in mathematics, physics, biology, and medicine. By converting high-quality research into structured training data, Genesis I seeks to democratize AI development and challenge Big Tech’s dominance in model training.
Alongside the dataset, Tether introduced QVAC Workbench, a local inference app for Android, Windows, macOS and Linux, with iOS support coming soon. The app supports open-source models such as Llama, Medgemma, Qwen, SmolVLM and Whisper, keeping all AI processing on-device to protect privacy. A Delegated Inference feature enables peer-to-peer connections between mobile devices and desktops for heavier compute tasks.
With its peer-to-peer ethos, Tether reinforces its mission to decentralize intelligence by making AI open, private and user-owned. Crypto traders should monitor how Tether’s AI dataset launch and QVAC Workbench rollout could boost USDT demand and expand its ecosystem influence.
Bullish
TetherAI datasetSTEM trainingQVAC WorkbenchDecentralized AI
Little Pepe presale has raised over $27 million after selling more than 16.5 billion LILPEPE tokens across 13 stages at $0.0022 per token. The Little Pepe presale has moved roughly 26.5% of its 100 billion supply, backed by a CertiK audit score of 95.49% and sustainable tokenomics allocating funds to liquidity, chain reserves, DEX, marketing and staking with zero trading tax. As a fast Layer-2 memecoin presale, Stage 13 offers 1.5 billion tokens aiming to raise an additional $3.3 million. Buyers connect MetaMask or Trust Wallet with ETH or USDT, approve the USDT contract and finalize the on-chain transaction; tokens become claimable via the presale dashboard after the token generation event. With planned listings on major centralized exchanges, CoinMarketCap and community giveaways, analysts forecast a 300% increase toward $1 (or 50–100× to $0.1–$0.2) on launch. Traders should note the strong presale momentum and potential volatility as listings approach.
Bullish
Little Pepememecoin presaletokenomicsCEX listingsROI forecast
Pump.fun has acquired the multichain trading terminal Padre to reinforce liquidity on its Solana-based memecoin launchpad. The move integrates Padre’s cross-chain support for Ethereum and BNB Chain, along with cashback rewards, competitive fees and advanced order types. According to Jupiter data, Pump.fun’s market share on Solana fell from 75% at its 2024 peak to 44%. By unifying Padre’s low-latency execution and intuitive interface, Pump.fun aims to reduce slippage, attract traders and reverse a 21% drop in memecoin market capitalization over 30 days. Traders should watch for improved liquidity infrastructure that could boost trading volumes and stabilize memecoin prices across Solana, Ethereum and BNB Chain.
Fetch.ai and Ocean Protocol are close to settling a dispute over 286 million FET tokens. Under the proposed deal, Ocean Protocol will return the full supply of FET tokens, valued at about $120 million, and Fetch.ai will drop all related lawsuits. The initial proposal was outlined by Fetch.ai CEO Humayun Sheikh on X Spaces, with a formal written offer expected soon.
The controversy began when Fetch.ai accused an Ocean Protocol multi-sig wallet of converting OCEAN tokens into FET tokens and moving them to centralized exchanges, triggering concerns about potential sell-pressure. Since the dispute arose in March, FET token prices have fallen more than 90%, with on-chain indicators like the RSI showing deep oversold conditions.
Key uncertainties remain over the custody of returned tokens, their vesting or lockup terms, and future treasury governance. If the settlement includes transparent lockup schedules, it could restore community trust in both projects and ease sell-pressure on FET tokens. Traders are advised to watch for official documentation and clear token-return terms before adjusting positions.
Bitcoin remains highly volatile despite institutional backing and spot ETF approval. BitMine chairman Tom Lee warns that a 20% drop in equities could trigger a 40%–50% Bitcoin slump. After its $69,000 peak in 2021, Bitcoin lost half its value in two months. Lee sees a shift to a longer post-halving cycle and sticks to his year-end $200,000–$250,000 target, implying a potential pullback to $125,000 on a 50% correction. Veteran trader Peter Brandt draws parallels to 1970s commodity crashes, reinforcing near-term risk. Conversely, proponents like Michael Saylor argue Bitcoin volatility will ease as institutional adoption grows.
Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) has publicly denied Senator Elizabeth Warren’s claim that he pleaded guilty to a criminal money laundering charge. In an April 2024 plea, CZ admitted only to a single felony violation of the US Bank Secrecy Act for weak AML controls at Binance. He was sentenced to four months and granted a presidential pardon by Donald Trump in June 2024. Warren’s allegations of financing the USD1 stablecoin and lobbying for a pardon are also rejected by CZ. Representative Maxine Waters condemned the pardon as a “pay-to-play” favor for crypto criminals. Traders should note that the Trump pardon lowers legal uncertainty for Binance management but could heighten regulatory scrutiny and impact market sentiment as the industry awaits further enforcement guidance.
Visa has launched stablecoin lending prefunding services via its Visa Direct platform, marking a strategic expansion into on-chain lending infrastructure. According to Visa’s report, stablecoin lending volumes have reached $670 billion since 2020, with August 2025 monthly loans hitting $51.7 billion and over 81,000 active borrowers. USDC and USDT dominate the market, and DeFi platforms Aave and Compound account for 89% of on-chain lending volume. Visa will not issue tokens or fund loans but will provide data, compliance, APIs and settlement rails that connect banks and credit funds with programmable lending protocols. Leading projects like Morpho, Credit Coop and Huma Finance already offer competitive yields—4–5% USDC loans, 12–15% merchant financing and over 10% cross-border working capital financing. The report highlights future growth opportunities from tokenized real-world assets, crypto-backed credit cards and on-chain identity lending, paving the way for a 24/7 transparent credit market that bridges traditional finance and digital assets.
Anthropic has secured a landmark Google TPU deal, gaining access to 1 million Google TPUs and 1 GW of compute capacity by 2026. This multi-cloud strategy distributes workloads across Google TPUs, AWS Trainium chips and Nvidia GPUs to optimize cost, performance and energy efficiency.
Amazon’s $8 billion investment and Google’s $3 billion equity stake underpin infrastructure resilience, while Ironwood TPUs handle high-demand AI tasks. Claude AI now serves over 300,000 businesses with a $7 billion annualized revenue run rate. Claude Code reached $500 million in revenue within two months of launch.
Analysts expect the compute expansion from this Google TPU deal to bolster AI service reliability and drive enterprise adoption. As this is an AI infrastructure upgrade, the news has a neutral impact on the cryptocurrency market. Crypto traders should note the improved multi-cloud uptime but anticipate no immediate token price movements.
Andreessen Horowitz (A16z) has launched a $10 billion fund focused on AI investment and defense initiatives. The capital is allocated as $6 billion for growth and mature companies, $1.5 billion each for AI applications and AI infrastructure, and over $1 billion for defense and manufacturing tools. The fund notably excludes a dedicated crypto vehicle, but A16z’s crypto strategy remains active with recent $50 million and $55 million investments in Jito (Solana) and LayerZero. The firm has also consolidated its crypto operations in the US, underscoring a strategic pivot that balances AI and defense funding with selective blockchain and Solana ecosystem support.
T. Rowe Price, the US asset manager overseeing $1.8 trillion, has filed an S-1 registration with the SEC to launch an actively-managed crypto ETF. The fund would hold 5–15 tokens, including BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA and LTC. Portfolio managers will weight assets using valuation, momentum and fundamental analysis, seeking to outperform the FTSE Crypto US Listed Index. The filing highlights flexible allocation but warns of higher fees and manager risk versus passive products. The proposal now awaits SEC approval, with custody, daily valuation and trading safeguards under scrutiny. If approved, this crypto ETF could attract significant institutional and retail capital across multiple coins. Traders should watch for regulatory updates and potential inflows that may drive liquidity, price support and short-term volatility.
Coinbase listing APR and MET expands USD spot trading options for altcoin traders. On October 23 (ET), Coinbase began spot trading for APR-USD and MET-USD pairs after meeting liquidity requirements. Following the Coinbase listing, APR rallied over 10%, driven by aPriori’s intelligent order book streams and a $30 million funding round led by Pantera, YZi Labs and ConsenSys. Meanwhile, Meteora (MET), launched on Solana, dipped 41% during initial price discovery. Built with Dynamic AMM and DLMM pools, MET aims to enhance DeFi liquidity. Traders should monitor liquidity conditions and trading volumes closely, as major exchange listings often drive short-term price movements and influence altcoin valuations.
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao has criticized Peter Schiff’s new app-based tokenized gold platform, warning it carries significant counterparty risk. The platform issues digital tokens representing claims on physical bullion stored in third-party vaults. Zhao argues that relying on custodians exposes investors to bankruptcy, hacks, or management changes that could prevent redemption. He dismissed such tokens as “trust me bro” promises rather than true on-chain assets. Schiff defended his plan by citing established gold custodians like Brinks and comparing the model to stablecoin custody. The debate highlights ongoing challenges in real-world asset tokenization and on-chain ownership. Crypto traders should monitor demand for gold-backed tokens, developments in custodial protocols, and potential shifts toward Bitcoin as scrutiny of tokenized assets intensifies.
At a Turning Point USA event, Tucker Carlson claimed that Bitcoin was created by the CIA to exert totalitarian control over users. He cited the anonymity of Satoshi Nakamoto and crypto privacy concerns to explain why he avoids investing in Bitcoin, preferring gold and backing advocate Roger Ver. Carlson argued that traditional finance excludes young people, pushing them toward digital currencies that he warns could be manipulated by authorities.
Analysts dismiss Carlson’s CIA Bitcoin theory as an unsubstantiated conspiracy, noting that Bitcoin’s open-source design and transparent ledger prevent centralized manipulation. His remarks echo broader debates on crypto privacy, the risks of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and potential stablecoin regulation by US authorities.
Traders should monitor regulatory discussions on crypto privacy, CBDC developments, and stablecoin oversight, as these factors can influence Bitcoin market sentiment and volatility.
Primev’s FAST RPC is a new Ethereum RPC endpoint that delivers sub-200ms transaction preconfirmations, enabling near-instant feedback for ETH transfers, smart contract calls and NFT mints. Traders integrate FAST RPC via MetaMask by switching their RPC endpoint and funding Primev’s gas tank. In live tests, ETH transfers were preconfirmed in 377 ms and included in the same block. Developed over two years without altering Ethereum’s core protocol, FAST RPC enhances perceived Layer 1 speed and rivals specialized blockchains like Sui. If performance holds under heavy load, it could process billions in annual transactions and spur DeFi and NFT activity on Ethereum.
Crypto analyst Willy Woo warns that the next crypto bear market will be driven by a classic business cycle recession rather than traditional Bitcoin halving or M2 liquidity cycles. He likens the downturn to the 2001 dot-com crash and the 2008 financial crisis, marked by falling GDP, rising unemployment and low consumer spending. Woo cautions that current tailwinds—from institutional inflows and spot Bitcoin ETFs to corporate treasury allocations—could quickly reverse, triggering a liquidity crunch and heightened market volatility. Traders should monitor NBER recession indicators and the growing correlation between Bitcoin and risk assets. History shows traders hedging with Bitcoin and altcoin rotations, but even seasoned investors may face steep losses in a recession-driven crypto bear market. Adjust positions accordingly and prepare for potential sell-offs.
Hyperliquid Strategies has filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC for a proposed $1B IPO via a reverse merger. The move aims to bring its crypto holdings on-chain into regulated public markets. This token-backed stock offering triggered a 15% rally in HYPE token price and a surge in trading volume. HYPE is the native token of Hyperliquid’s decentralized exchange, recently added to major digital asset indices. Asset managers have also filed ETF proposals for HYPE. Traders view the HYPE token IPO as a potential liquidity boost that enhances corporate valuation. However, risks around token dilution, regulatory scrutiny and governance remain. The HYPE token IPO may set a precedent for future token-linked public offerings and highlights the growing convergence of DeFi and traditional finance.
Bullish
HYPE tokenHyperliquid StrategiesSEC S-1 filingToken-backed IPODeFi and TradFi convergence
RedStone has integrated event-driven market data from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market, into over 110 blockchain networks. This on-chain CFTC prediction data feeds real-time event outcomes—ranging from elections and interest rate decisions to cultural events—via RedStone’s pull-based oracle infrastructure. DeFi developers can now access regulated data feeds directly in smart contracts. They can build derivatives, perpetual DEXs, tokenized lending, automated trading strategies, yield protocols, and structured options with improved transparency and compliance. Kalshi’s $300 million funding and expansion to 140+ countries underpin this step in merging traditional regulation with decentralized finance. This on-chain CFTC prediction data could drive increased DeFi activity and pave the way for insurance-like protocols and social finance models.
Changpeng Zhao, known as CZ, has sharply criticized Peter Schiff’s recently launched gold token, branding it a centralized, “trust-me-bro” asset that lacks verifiable on-chain proof. Schiff’s tokenized gold offering lets users purchase, transfer and redeem physical gold via a blockchain-linked app and use a debit card tied to their holdings. CZ warns this gold token model relies on third-party custodians, undermines decentralization and echoes prior gold-pegged tokens that collapsed under redemption stress. He contrasted true on-chain gold, which provides transparent proof of reserves. The remarks come as gold prices plunged 6% over two days—erasing $2.5 trillion—but remain 55% higher year-to-date amid inflation concerns and projected Fed rate cuts. Industry data shows tokenized assets topped $10 billion in 2024, but experts stress that future success hinges on fully transparent, on-chain verification. Traders should weigh the risks of centralized tokenized gold assets against the security benefits of verifiable blockchain holdings.
Multiple crypto whales have deployed over $12.9 million in USDC on HyperLiquid to open high-leverage short positions on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH). On October 20, whale address 0x8c58 deposited 5.38 M USDC for a 20× short of 1,500 ETH (~$6.06 M), while 0x939f added 4.5 M USDC to expand its BTC short to 394 BTC (~$43.7 M) and maintain shorts on SOL, XRP and ETH. More recently, an unidentified whale placed 3 M USDC to initiate a 40× leveraged BTC short, bringing its cumulative BTC short profits to $8.6 M. HyperLiquid’s margin trading platform supports up to 100× leverage, attracting large players seeking amplified directional bets. Traders should monitor funding rates and position sizes, as these substantial BTC and ETH shorts could intensify selling pressure and increase market volatility. This pattern of profitable high-leverage strategies underscores persistent bearish sentiment or potential hedging ahead of anticipated price declines.
Jupiter, a leading Solana DEX aggregator, is currently beta-testing a Solana prediction market in partnership with Kalshi. This Solana prediction market lets users stake on real-world events, kicking off with the Mexico Grand Prix. The beta caps individual positions at 1,000 contracts and global volume at 100,000, and has seen over $120,000 in trading volume with Max Verstappen at a 46% lead. Jupiter reported 8.4 million active users in Q3, up 5% quarter-on-quarter, bolstering growth prospects for its JUP token. The full launch is scheduled for Q4 2025, with plans to expand into sports, politics and global affairs. Solana (SOL) shows technical strength near $188, eyeing $195 and $205 resistance levels. This move diversifies Jupiter’s DeFi offerings and taps rising institutional and retail demand for event-driven trading.
Tokyo-listed Quantum Solutions has boosted its Ethereum treasury by acquiring 2,365 ETH in seven days, raising total holdings to 3,865.84 ETH (approx. $14.8 m). This makes it the largest non-US Ethereum treasury globally and top in Japan among Ethereum Decentralized Autonomous Trusts (DATs). The ETH purchases were funded by a ¥26 bn ($180 m) September round led by ARK Invest, Susquehanna International Group and Integrated Asset Management. Despite the ETH accumulation, Quantum shares slid over 28% in five days to 565 yen on Oct 23, reflecting broader profit-taking in crypto treasury stocks. The company also holds 1.6 BTC ($1.3 m) in its Bitcoin treasury. Founder Francis Zhou confirms continuation of the Ethereum treasury strategy, aiming for further ETH additions. Traders should watch for potential volatility in Ethereum treasury stocks and broader crypto market trends.
Gold vs Bitcoin has reversed in 2025. Gold has rallied over 50% since January, driven by record central bank demand. Global net purchases topped 1,045 tonnes in Q2, lifting central banks’ share of total demand from under 10% to 20%. Emerging buyers such as Poland, Kazakhstan and China led the surge amid geopolitical risks and falling dollar confidence.
Bitcoin (BTC) gained only 15% in 2025. Its correlation with Nasdaq tech stocks rose to 0.5, while the link to gold weakened. The approval of US spot Bitcoin ETFs has tied BTC performance to Fed policy and dollar liquidity, making Bitcoin behave more like a risk asset.
Despite the divergence, Gold vs Bitcoin remain complementary stores of value. Gold offers long-term stability. Bitcoin provides portability and rapid transfers in extreme scenarios. Traders may allocate between gold and Bitcoin to diversify portfolios. Watching central bank buying, dollar strength and ETF flows is key to navigating the Gold vs Bitcoin dynamic.
Bearish
Gold vs BitcoinCentral bank demandDigital goldBitcoin ETFsPortfolio diversification
DraftKings Predictions has launched after DraftKings acquired Railbird Technologies to secure a CFTC-designated contract market license. The mobile app offers regulated prediction market contracts on finance, culture and entertainment. DraftKings tapped blockchain pioneer Polymarket as its clearinghouse, using its B2B settlement system under federal oversight to verify trades and manage collateral. Polymarket, valued at around $10 billion after acquiring derivatives exchange QCEX and raising $2 billion from Intercontinental Exchange, competes with Kalshi in a market that saw record trading volumes exceeding $4.6 billion in October. Industry experts say DraftKings’s brand power could push prediction trading from DeFi niches into the mainstream and make DraftKings Predictions as accessible as stock and options trading for its 24 million users.
Ken Griffin’s Citadel filed a Schedule 13G to disclose a 4.5% stake in DeFi Development Corp, a Solana-focused treasury firm. Citadel Advisors and affiliates hold 1.315 million shares—4.5% beneficial ownership—of the Nasdaq-listed company. DeFi Development manages 2,195,926 SOL, about 0.4% of Solana’s circulating supply, acquired at $236.5 million and now valued at $395.3 million. This marks a 67% unrealized gain on Solana assets. SOL has jumped 370% since April 2025 to around $179. Technical indicators show a double-bottom pattern and resistance at $190, pointing to a possible rally toward $260 if breached. Citadel’s move highlights growing institutional investment in Solana and could boost market momentum. Secondary projects like the SUBBD token presale have also seen demand surge, raising $1.45 million. This shift reflects evolving views in crypto trading, echoing past Bitcoin purchases by firms like MicroStrategy.
Tether has made a strategic investment in Kotani Pay, a pan-African digital payments platform co-founded by the Stellar Development Foundation. The funding will integrate USDT stablecoin across local mobile wallets and on- and off-ramp channels.
The partnership aims to lower cross-border transfer costs, reduce settlement times, and improve liquidity. By expanding USDT corridors in Africa, Tether drives financial inclusion for individuals and SMEs in emerging markets.
Greater USDT adoption via Kotani Pay could boost trading volumes and enable real-time settlements, extending blockchain use beyond speculative trading. This move positions USDT for broader utility and stablecoin adoption.
Japan’s proposed $92B stimulus plan includes power and gas subsidies, regional grants and wage incentives funded via quantitative easing. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argues that this surge in liquidity, coupled with expected Bank of Japan easing, could push Bitcoin to $1 million. Analytics firm Milk Road Macro notes that 80% of global banks are already easing, further supporting risk assets. The next BoJ meeting on October 29 is critical for confirmation of quantitative easing. However, crypto analyst Willy Woo warns that an economic downturn could trigger an unpredictable Bitcoin sell-off. Traders should monitor yen weakness, liquidity flows and recession risk when positioning for the next market cycle.
Asia-Pacific stock exchanges are tightening rules on corporate Bitcoin holdings amid volatility concerns. In Hong Kong, HKEX has challenged at least five firms’ digital asset treasury strategies. In India, BSE rejected Jetking Infotrain’s plan to allocate preferential allotment proceeds to crypto. In Australia, ASX limits crypto holdings to 50% of assets and suggests ETF exposure. This cap prompted Locate Technologies to move its listing to NZX. These rules on corporate Bitcoin holdings underscore regulators’ focus on volatility and liquidity risks and could curb corporate demand for Bitcoin. By contrast, Japan Exchange Group may permit corporate crypto reserves with enhanced disclosures. Traders should watch policy shifts, compliance updates and listing migrations for impacts on treasury strategies and market liquidity.