Real Vision co-founder Raoul Pal has outlined a new thesis for the crypto market cycle. He predicts Ethereum (ETH) will outperform Bitcoin (BTC), Solana (SOL) will outshine ETH, and Sui (SUI) will top SOL. Pal frames this view using an S-curve adoption model, suggesting newer networks offer more growth potential.
Bitcoin’s price has dipped 3.5% in the past week to $111,049. Ethereum trades at $4,572 after reaching $4,946, with a 7% gain over seven days. Solana is up 8% to $196 but remains 33% below its January high. Sui sits at $3.45, down 35% from January.
On-chain data shows whales moving $2.6 billion BTC into ETH. Skeptics point to Sui’s weak developer traction. Pal counters that wallets, stablecoins, and dev activity on Sui are all expanding. This forecast highlights a bullish outlook for altcoin performance in the upcoming crypto market cycle.
Bullish
Crypto Market CycleAltcoin PerformanceS-curve AdoptionOn-chain DataMarket Outlook
The altcoin season indicator stands at 45/100 based on the last 90 days of performance data, signalling that a full-blown altcoin season has not yet begun. According to the altcoin season index, the threshold for an altcoin season is when over 75% of altcoins outperform Bitcoin. Over the same period, Bitcoin (BTC) gained 2.13%, while several altcoins delivered much stronger returns. Top performers include OCD (254.67%), PENGU (135.74%), AERO (121.62%), CFX (96.92%) and ETH (72.91%). Other notable gains came from MORPHO, CRO, ENA, MNT and UNI, among the top 100 tokens. Recent on-chain data also highlight a spike in Ethereum’s price above $4,900 following a network attack. Crypto traders can use these insights from the altcoin season indicator and altcoin performance rankings to identify short-term opportunities and gauge overall market momentum before the critical 75% threshold is crossed.
Former SEC lead trial counsel Jorge Tenreiro has joined Bernstein Litowitz Berger & Grossmann (BLB&G) as a partner. Jorge Tenreiro led the SEC’s national civil litigation program with over 120 attorneys. He drove key cryptocurrency enforcement actions, securing victories in SEC v. Terraform and SEC v. Telegram, Telegram Group Inc. However, his profile omission of the SEC v. Ripple Labs case, where XRP sales on secondary markets were ruled non-securities, attracted criticism. Digital asset enthusiast Bill Morgan highlighted that Tenreiro’s legal theory on XRP was unsustainable and noted the SEC later dropped its appeal. Tenreiro’s move to BLB&G comes amid heightened scrutiny of the SEC’s crypto litigation strategy.
Ethereum price surged to an all-time high (ATH) of $4,953 before retracing to $4,626. The rally was driven by falling exchange reserves and strong on-chain demand, creating conditions for a possible supply shock. With fewer ETH available on centralized exchanges, even modest buying interest can trigger sharp price moves. On-chain technical indicators show an hourly RSI near 33 (oversold) and a weakening OBV at 1.23 million, suggesting short-term volatility within a broader bullish trend. Analysts highlight Ethereum’s relative strength versus Bitcoin and advise traders to monitor retest levels around the breakout zone. A successful hold above support could confirm the next leg up, while failure may lead to deeper consolidation. Key takeaways: track exchange reserves, watch RSI and OBV, and plan entries around retest zones in this price discovery phase.
Several leading AI firms have pooled $100m to form an AI Super PAC. The initiative aims to raise the industry’s profile in Washington. Key backers include OpenAI, Anthropic and Inflection. The PAC will fund political campaigns and lobby for pro-AI policies. By advocating for innovation-friendly regulation, the group seeks to shape future legislation on AI and related fields. The move follows similar efforts by tech giants to influence federal policy. Analysts say the AI Super PAC could affect funding for AI research and its intersection with crypto regulation. While immediate market impact on cryptocurrencies is limited, long-term alignment of AI and blockchain governance may emerge.
Neutral
AI lobbyingSuper PACTech policyPolitical influenceAI regulation
Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) fell 8% to $0.032 on August 25, trading $537 million in volume after launching its Season 2 campaign with a $100 million token giveaway. Despite the drop, analysts pinpoint a bullish breakout setup above the 0.786 Fibonacci resistance at $0.036. Ali Martinez projects a rally to $0.10, while CryptoBull_360 targets $0.062–$0.064 on rising volume and trendline support. Short-term momentum remains cautious as the 9-day MA sits below the 21-day MA and RSI holds at 46. Key support levels lie at $0.0296 and $0.0257. A decisive close above $0.036 could unlock upside to $0.0466, $0.0643, and $0.0961. Failure to clear resistance may trap PENGU near $0.031 or prompt a retest of $0.028. Traders should monitor the Pudgy Penguins price action and PENGU trading volume for signals of a potential 200% rally.
Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder Tom Lee has highlighted Ethereum’s role as the default settlement layer for decentralized finance. He points to Ethereum’s rails powering stablecoins, tokenization and DeFi as the basis for its future growth. Lee notes that institutional players and high-profile investors are quietly building positions in ETH via decentralized asset trackers, using leveraged exposure to ETH. He argues that Ethereum treasuries now represent “big money with a megaphone,” strengthening ETH’s position as the backbone of global finance. Additionally, on-chain data shows ETH trading volumes on exchanges have consistently outpaced Bitcoin over the past three months. This volume momentum underlines growing market dominance and sustained investor interest. These trends position Ethereum as the internet of finance and attract both retail and institutional demand. Overall, Ethereum’s DeFi dominance and rising volume signal bullish potential for ETH adoption and price appreciation.
Bullish
EthereumDeFiInstitutional AdoptionTrading VolumeTom Lee
Bitcoin opened the week with a drop to its key support at $110,530 amid heavy whale selling, but bulls have so far held the level. Net outflows of $1 billion from Bitcoin ETPs contrast with $2.5 billion inflows into Ether products month-to-date. Analytics firm Arkham reports a whale offloading 22,769 BTC into Hyperliquid while ramping up ETH spot & long positions. Conversely, MicroStrategy added 3,081 BTC for $357 million, raising its holdings to 632,457 BTC.
Across the top 10 crypto assets, technicals show Ether and BNB still in strong uptrends, while Bitcoin risks a break below $110,530 that could trigger a slide to $100,000. BTC recovery faces resistance at the 20-day EMA near $115,600, while a break above $117,500 would cement a $110,530–$124,474 range. Ether’s pullback may test the 20-day EMA at $4,350 before bulls target $5,000–$5,500. XRP eyes a descending triangle break at $2.73, BNB a $900 pivot en route to $1,000, and Solana an ascending triangle breakout above $210 toward $240–$265. Dogecoin is confined to $0.21–$0.26, Cardano must clear $1.02 to resume its rally, and Chainlink needs a push over $27 to reach $31.
Ether’s 14-week net inflow streak for Ethereum ETPs broke as investors withdrew $238 million in the latest week. Simultaneously, Bitcoin ETFs experienced substantial outflows totaling $1.17 billion—its largest weekly loss since March—underscoring shifting sentiment. The crypto market reaction comes amid rising Treasury yields and looming Federal Reserve rate decisions, pressing traders to take profits. Year-to-date, Ethereum ETPs had amassed $5.5 billion, while Bitcoin ETF inflows reached $4.2 billion prior to this reversal. Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust led withdrawals with $340 million leaving, followed by major issuers like BlackRock and Fidelity. Traders watch these fund flows as a barometer for market health: the outflows coincided with a 4.5% slide in ETH and a 2.8% drop in BTC over the week. Short-term bearish pressure may persist, but strategic drivers such as the upcoming Ethereum Shanghai upgrade and broader ETF adoption could support a longer-term bullish outlook.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has postponed its decision on Canary’s proposed spot PENGU ETF. The regulator cited the need for additional time to review filings and public feedback. This marks the latest delay in the growing trend of spot ETF applications for niche tokens. Market observers note that further clarifications on custody solutions and liquidity requirements remain outstanding. The SEC’s postponement comes amid increasing demand for diversified crypto exposure through regulated exchange-traded products. While spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs have dominated headlines, smaller token trusts like PENGU ETF face stricter scrutiny over market depth and custodial safeguards. Investors and traders should monitor the SEC’s new deadline, as a final approval or rejection could influence PENGU’s secondary market liquidity and price volatility. In the interim, the delay underscores evolving regulatory priorities and highlights the challenges for token issuers seeking spot ETF status.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has formally started reviewing Canary’s proposal for a staked Injective ETF. The 21-day public comment window is now open, and the SEC has up to 90 days to decide. This staked Injective ETF aims to track the native token INJ while passing staking rewards to investors. If approved, it would list on the Cboe BZX Exchange, adding a regulated staking product to the US market. Canary argues that Injective’s $1.4 billion market cap, dispersed trading, and strong liquidity reduce manipulation risks. Approval could boost institutional access to INJ and drive staking demand. Technically, INJ trades near $13.33, below resistance at $16.85 and close to the 0.618 Fibonacci support at $14.37. Key support zones are $13–14, with deeper cushions around $10.97 and $6.64. A breakdown below $13 could trigger larger declines. Traders should monitor the SEC comment period outcome and INJ’s price action to assess market impact.
Google has expanded its NotebookLM platform by extending AI language support to 80 languages for both video and audio summaries. This AI language support expansion transforms notes, PDFs, and images into dynamic video presentations and detailed audio overviews in French, German, Spanish, Japanese and more. Previously limited to English, the Video Overviews feature now delivers coherent summaries in 80 native tongues. Similarly, full-version Audio Summaries are available across all supported languages, catering to diverse learning styles. This move democratizes access to advanced AI tools and enhances knowledge management for global learners. The enhancements are rolling out worldwide this week and promise to break down language barriers in information synthesis.
Neutral
Google NotebookLMAI Language SupportEducation TechnologyVideo OverviewsAudio Summaries
Cap Labs’ new stablecoin cUSD reached $67.85M in circulation within a week, driven by strong demand for its EigenLayer-backed credit model. Built on the Cap Stablecoin Network (CSN), cUSD is a 1:1 redeemable token backed by regulated reserve assets such as PYUSD, BUIDL, and BENJI. Its yield-bearing variant, stcUSD, allows holders to stake cUSD in an ERC-4626 vault, earning roughly 12% APY through a three-party system of lenders, operators and restakers. Operators deploy yield strategies, restakers underwrite credit risk via EigenLayer’s slashing and redistribution mechanics, and stcUSD holders earn a floating return. The model complies with the GENIUS Act by separating yield into stcUSD, a distinct token generated via marketplace borrowing and restaking, avoiding interest-bearing stablecoin restrictions. Market makers like Fasanara, GSR and Amber act as operators, while Gauntlet and Symbiotic provide restaking credit protection. EigenLayer’s programmable risk distribution layer now underwrites financial services, enabling onchain credit guarantees. Cap Labs’ structure could signal a shift in the restaking ecosystem toward financial AVSs and mark a new era of decentralized credit underwriting.
Several high-profile tech IPOs have posted significant share pullbacks after strong initial performances. Figma, the design software firm, saw shares tumble nearly 50% from a $140 peak. Cloud AI specialist CoreWeave and stablecoin issuer Circle also retraced gains but remain above IPO prices. Online bank Chime is down roughly one-third from its post-IPO highs. These pullbacks reflect momentum trading in the tech IPO market rather than indications of a broader downturn. All companies still trade above their offering prices, underscoring ongoing investor appetite despite early volatility.
The crypto market saw a rapid crypto selloff in August 2025 after US Federal Reserve remarks tightened risk sentiment. Bitcoin plunged to a six-week low near $112,000, erasing roughly $200 billion in market value. The Bitcoin drop triggered over $500 million in leveraged liquidations, worsening liquidity stress in derivatives and amplifying the broader crypto selloff. Altcoins suffered heavier losses as Bitcoin dominance fell to about 56%, while decentralized finance tokens and small-cap projects faced the steepest declines. Traders reacted to perceived hawkish Fed signals by deleveraging and triggering stop-loss cascades. To navigate future volatility, maintain lower leverage, set strict stop-loss orders, and closely monitor central bank communications. This selloff underscores digital assets’ sensitivity to macro policy shifts and the need for robust risk management.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s recent Jackson Hole speech marked a turning point in crypto market sentiment. After a near 10% drop in Bitcoin price driven by inflation concerns and $1.18 billion in spot Bitcoin ETF outflows, the market braced for further declines. However, Powell’s dovish comments triggered a powerful short squeeze, sparking a rebound across major cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin and Ethereum led the recovery, despite ongoing ETF outflows—Ethereum ETFs saw a daily net withdrawal of $197 million, the largest since April. This rebound highlights the market’s sensitivity to macroeconomic cues and anticipations of monetary policy.
Institutional capital flows remain cautious. Persistent net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum ETFs suggest that sustained upward momentum hinges on renewed institutional interest. Bitfinex Alpha analysis indicates that Bitcoin may trade within a defined range in the short term. Altcoin performance is likely to stay muted until larger investors re-enter the market.
Crypto traders should monitor ETF flow data and upcoming macroeconomic reports. The interplay between Federal Reserve guidance and institutional capital will be crucial for future shifts in crypto market sentiment.
Neutral
Crypto Market SentimentPowell SpeechETF OutflowsShort SqueezeInstitutional Capital
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has postponed its decision on the proposed Canary Staked TRX ETF. The ETF, designed to track Tron (TRX) and distribute staking rewards, saw its review deadline extended by 45 days under SEC rules. This marks the SEC’s latest delay in crypto ETF approvals, reflecting its cautious stance on digital asset products. The regulator cited the need for additional analysis of custody and staking mechanisms. Investors should prepare for continued uncertainty in the short term. The delay could mute bullish sentiment for TRX and similar crypto ETFs until regulators complete their review.
BNB Coin reserve strategy has sparked excitement as B Strategy, backed by Binance’s CZ and former Bitmain executives, aims to raise $1B in a Nasdaq-listed fund. Designed to emulate Berkshire Hathaway, the company will support the BNB ecosystem through technology investments, project grants, and community ventures. The initiative is facilitated by YZi Labs and has already secured Asia-based family offices. The Nasdaq listing and fundraise are expected to complete within weeks.
BNB Coin currently trades at $865, maintaining gains amid broader market losses. Consistent new all-time highs suggest potential for a four-digit price if B Strategy succeeds. Past examples, like MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin purchases, show that large reserves can drive demand. The reserve company could boost liquidity and attract institutional investors. This altcoin reserve model may become a blueprint for other tokens. Overall, the reserve strategy underscores growing institutional interest in altcoin reserves and could fuel bullish momentum in the BNB Coin market.
Stablecoins are transitioning from mere value preservers to yield-generating assets in 2025. With the global stablecoin market at $278 billion (up 22% this year), the US GENIUS Act now mandates full backing by dollars or high-quality liquid assets, bolstering investor confidence. Centralized exchanges like Coinbase pay up to 4.7% APY on USDC, while DeFi protocols—Falcon Finance, Ethena (USDe), Ondo Finance and Elixir—deploy strategies such as basis trading, ETH staking and arbitrage to offer double-digit returns. Yield-bearing stablecoins have distributed over $800 million to date. Traders can tap these opportunities by connecting wallets and completing KYC checks. Because collateral remains pegged to the dollar, stablecoin APY strategies deliver dependable returns without exposure to crypto volatility. With forecasts projecting a $1.2 trillion market by 2028, stablecoin yield generation is poised to become a cornerstone for both retail and institutional investors.
Bitcoin price has fallen from a recent high of $124,200 to around $112,800, trimming gains after a 50% rally since April. On the weekly chart, Bitcoin has formed a bearish rising wedge pattern and shown bearish divergence in both the Percentage Price Oscillator and the Relative Strength Index. These technical signals suggest a potential breakdown toward the 50-week moving average near $95,000.
Demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs has cooled, with $1.17 billion in outflows last week compared to $547 million of inflows the week before. At the same time, Bitcoin held on exchanges has risen to 2.25 million BTC, the highest level since August 7, indicating increased selling pressure. Together, these developments point to weaker institutional and retail buying interest.
Traders should watch for a decisive weekly close below the wedge’s lower trendline and any further ETF outflows. A breach could trigger a short-term sell-off toward major support at $95,000. While Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals remain intact, short-term market sentiment has turned cautious amid waning ETF demand and bearish chart setups.
Nasdaq-listed Heritage Distilling completed a $223.8 million private placement, raising $95 million in cash and $128.8 million in Story IP tokens. The distillery bought over 23.5 million Story IP tokens at $3.40 each, bringing its total holdings to 53.2 million tokens valued at $320 million as of Aug. 22. Backed by Story Foundation, a16z Crypto and other venture firms, the deal also cleared $19 million in debt. Heritage plans to stake the Story IP tokens for yield and support the Story Protocol ecosystem. The move highlights growing adoption of crypto treasury strategies among public companies and helped lift Story’s token price from $2.50 in June to nearly $7.00 in August 2025.
Crypto analyst Dark Defender identifies multiple bullish technical patterns indicating an XRP price breakout. On the weekly chart, XRP price has formed a Cup & Handle, finishing its handle after months of consolidation. Elliott Wave analysis shows the ABC retracement complete, while Fibonacci retracement holds support at $2.85. Combined signals point to a strong breakout toward a $5.85 target. Market watchers also note a repeating Bull Flag on the weekly chart above $3, with support at $3.00 and $2.85. Previous November 2024 Bull Flag correctly predicted a rally from $1.13 to $2.40, bolstering confidence. Fibonacci extensions suggest interim targets at $3.35 (70.2%) and $4.39 (161.8%) before reaching $5.85 (261.8%). Traders should watch key levels and pattern confirmations for entry opportunities. If XRP price maintains support and breaks above the flag, the next bullish phase could accelerate. This outlook offers actionable insights for crypto traders seeking short-term gains and long-term bullish potential.
TRON’s DeFi ecosystem continues to expand as Sunswap, the network’s leading decentralized exchange, surpasses 16 million transactions since launch. Native integrations with BitgetWallet, TrustWallet and TronLink have driven user adoption, helping TRON maintain over 2.5 million active addresses. As the primary blockchain for Tether (USDT), TRON hosts more than $80 billion in USDT liquidity, underscoring its role in fast, low-cost stablecoin transfers.
Despite 2025’s market volatility, Sunswap’s weekly transaction count remains stable. Early data show a shift in trading patterns: in 2024, WTRX and USDT accounted for the bulk of activity, but newer tokens like LMTV, SUNDOG, JST and the Trump-tied TRUMP token are gaining share. This diversification points to a broader and more resilient TRON DeFi landscape.
On price charts, TRX trades near $0.3518, testing its 50-period moving average as resistance and 100-period SMA at $0.3520 as support. A sustained hold above these levels could trigger a retest of $0.37, while a break below $0.3390 risks deeper consolidation toward $0.32. Overall, network metrics and growing liquidity suggest a bullish outlook for TRON’s DeFi expansion.
Bitcoin saw a sharp bounce after dovish Jackson Hole comments lifted risk appetite, but gains quickly faded. Over the weekend, BTC slid from around $117,300 to $110,600, forming a bearish weekly engulfing candlestick. Onchain data reveals that all wallet cohorts are distributing coins, led by mid-size holders with 10–100 BTC. Large whales (>1,000 BTC) also remain net sellers.
Analyst Boris Vest highlights that smaller investors (0–1 BTC) are accumulating, and 1–10 BTC wallets buy dips below $107,000. The 100–1,000 BTC cohort now holds $105,000 as its last stronghold before further selling. Realized-price metrics show short-term holders (1–3 months) have cost bases near $111,900, while longer-term holders sit closer to $90,000.
Technically, a break below the $105,000 support could trigger accelerated downside, with the next demand zone between $92,000 and $89,000. This risk is magnified by historical seasonality, as Bitcoin often weakens during August to September’s “ghost month,” which has averaged a 21.7% decline since 2017.
Crypto trader Roman Trading adds that BTC/EUR has not hit new highs, indicating recent gains stem from a softer US dollar rather than fresh demand. He also warns that post-spot Bitcoin ETF enthusiasm may be waning, reflecting exhaustion similar to past distribution phases.
Traders should watch the $105,000 level closely. A sustained defense could stabilize the market, while a breach may prompt capitulation and deeper corrections.
On August 24, 2025, Bitcoin plunged from approximately $117,000 to $111,000 during a thinly traded weekend session, triggering over $500 million in long liquidations across major derivatives platforms. A rapid unwind of leveraged Bitcoin longs, amplified by elevated futures funding rates and macroeconomic risk-off sentiment, cascaded through stop-loss orders and widened the sell-off. Ethereum and leading altcoins mirrored the move, with ETH falling around 7% amid funding rate stress and spot ETF outflows. Analysis indicates that high open interest and speculative excess in CME futures and perpetual swaps set the stage for a liquidity shock. This event highlights the liquidity and leverage risks facing Bitcoin traders. Short-term risk management steps include reducing leverage and widening stop placements, while institutions are advised to revisit margin models and liquidity stress tests to mitigate concentrated counterparty risk.
Ethereum reserve-concept stocks slid across US markets on August 26, led by an 8.13% drop in BTCS (BTCS.US). Coinbase (COIN.US) shares fell 2.95%, followed by Bit Digital (BTBT.US) down 1.77%, SharpLink Gaming (SBET.US) off 3.98%, and Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR.US) down 2.49%. This sell-off highlights renewed weakness in crypto-linked equities and reflects cautious sentiment among traders. Ethereum reserve-concept stocks have come under pressure despite stable network fundamentals. Market participants will closely watch equity movements for further signals in a volatile trading environment.
Bitcoin’s recent 3.9% rebound to $117,300 faded, as onchain data points to broad whale selling. Wallets holding 10–100 BTC flipped to net sellers above $118K, while larger holders remain distributors. The 100–1,000 BTC cohort is defending $105K, marking the last strong support before a possible drop to $92K–$89K. Realized price bands show short-term holders sit near $111,900, versus longer-term cost bases around $90K. Seasonal weakness in August–September and fading spot ETF enthusiasm add bearish risks. If Bitcoin loses $105K, sparse cost support until $90K could trigger accelerated selling. Traders should watch the $105K level, onchain distribution, and ETF flows for signs of further downside.
Aave price has jumped 185% since April, driven by record network growth and rising fees. Total value locked in the Aave ecosystem reached $41 billion, while supplied liquidity hit $63 billion. Monthly protocol fees climbed to $80 million, boosting the treasury to $235 million. However, on‐chain data shows whale activity stalling since mid-August, with top holders’ balances unchanged at 183,116 AAVE (~$59 million). Smart money addresses have slightly reduced their stakes, and token supply on exchanges has inched higher. Technical charts reveal a potential double-top pattern with a neckline at $113.80 and a peak at $377. A sustained drop below the $377 level could see Aave price retreat towards key moving averages near $190. Traders should watch whale accumulation and exchange inflows for signs of a deeper pullback.
Canary Capital has filed an S-1 registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for an American-Made Crypto ETF. The altcoin ETF will focus on U.S. crypto projects such as Uniswap (UNI), Chainlink (LINK), Solana (SOL) and Injective (INJ). Eligible proof-of-stake tokens will be staked to boost yield, with rewards paid out or reinvested. The fund will hold only underlying tokens, avoiding derivatives and futures.
The American-Made Crypto ETF filing emphasizes U.S.-based projects amid a pro-crypto regulatory shift after the recent U.S. election. It classifies the strategy as high-risk, citing lower liquidity in altcoins and ongoing regulatory uncertainty. A U.S.-only portfolio may also limit diversification. The filing follows Canary Capital’s registration of a “Trump Coin ETF” and signals deeper ties between crypto, politics and culture.