Bitcoin faces fresh pressure after the Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.75%–4% but maintained a hawkish stance on inflation. The 10-2 vote included two officials who preferred a quarter-point rate increase.
CME FedWatch data put the chance of a quarter-point hike by December at 78.4%, and the chance of at least one hike by March at 67.3%. Higher rates can weigh on Bitcoin by making lower-risk assets more attractive.
Analysts say Bitcoin’s near-term direction may also depend on Treasury yields, the US dollar and broader risk sentiment. Thursday’s US PCE inflation report and earnings from major technology companies are key upcoming signals for markets.
The SEC’s crypto custody proposal, announced on October 1, could expand how investment advisers and registered funds hold digital assets. It would allow self-custody in specified circumstances, permit state trust companies to act as custodians, and amend requirements for adviser audits and broker-dealer custody. The SEC will accept public comments for 60 days after publication in the Federal Register. The crypto custody proposal is not final and does not give all firms blanket permission to self-custody. Its scope may change after feedback, and firms would still need safeguards for asset control and segregation, key security and recovery, valuation, cybersecurity and client protection. For traders, the proposal points to a possible longer-term expansion of regulated institutional custody options, but any effect on adoption, capital flows or token prices depends on the final rules and implementation. Watch for comments, revisions and compliance details; the proposal does not signal an immediate market or price change.
Alipay says it does not support cryptocurrency trading or related services. The company called Peer’s claim that users can buy and sell USDC through Alipay false and unauthorized, and urged users to protect their funds and accounts. The warning highlights the risks of using unverified payment channels for stablecoin transactions.
The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 3.75%–4% in a 10–2 vote at its October 28 meeting. The decision leaves borrowing costs unchanged for now, while officials’ year-end rate projections range from 4.1% to 4.4%. Markets are pricing in one more 25-basis-point rate hike in 2026, with further increases extending into 2027. The Fed’s interest rate outlook matters to crypto traders because higher rates can tighten financial conditions and reduce demand for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Bearish
Federal ReserveInterest ratesMonetary policyCrypto marketsRisk assets
The Saudi-led coalition says it intercepted and destroyed a Houthi missile aimed at Saudi Arabia’s eastern region. An earlier report described three ballistic missiles, while the later account refers to one; it reported no casualties or damage. The incident adds to recent Houthi missile and drone activity, including reported attacks targeting Riyadh and Dhahran. Saudi forces have also targeted Houthi launch capabilities. Prediction-market odds for Saudi airspace closing were about 1.7% by November 1, 2026, and 18.5% by January 1, 2027; the earlier report also put the odds of Houthi military action against Israel by January 1 at 7.5%. The reports cite no direct effect on crypto markets. Traders can watch for further attacks and official updates, as well as possible effects on aviation and energy markets. The Houthi missile incident remains a regional security risk, but no direct cryptocurrency price impact is indicated.
Neutral
Saudi ArabiaHouthi movementMissile interceptionGeopolitical riskPrediction markets
Samsung Electronics reported estimated high-bandwidth memory (HBM) revenue of about $8.7 billion in Q3 2026, up 33% from the previous quarter and ahead of SK hynix’s estimated $7.6 billion. Strong demand for HBM4, particularly for Nvidia’s Vera Rubin AI accelerators, drove the increase. This marks the first time in the current AI growth cycle that Samsung has led SK hynix in HBM revenue.
Samsung’s preliminary Q3 results also showed operating profit of KRW 107.4 trillion (about $81 billion), a 782.5% increase year over year. Full results and a detailed segment breakdown are pending. Traders will be watching whether HBM4 exceeds 60% of Samsung’s HBM revenue in the second half of 2026 and how both companies progress in qualifying HBM4E. The development highlights intensifying competition in AI memory, but has no direct effect on cryptocurrency fundamentals.
The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark federal funds rate at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28, 2026, following a 10–2 FOMC vote. Governor Lisa D. Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth M. Hammack dissented, favoring a 25-basis-point increase amid persistent inflation and solid economic growth. The Federal Reserve said further rate rises remain possible if inflation does not cool, including at its December meeting. Bitcoin traded around $81,000 after briefly falling below $80,000 earlier in the week. Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows showed signs of stabilizing, with more than $286 million in net inflows over two days. The relatively hawkish stance may keep pressure on crypto assets, as traditional dollar yields remain competitive with digital-asset staking returns.
Bearish
Federal ReserveInterest ratesBitcoinEthereum stakingSpot Bitcoin ETFs
A solo Bitcoin miner using a device with about 6.5 TH/s of computing power reportedly won a 3.14 BTC block reward, worth just over $250,000 at the time. The block was mined on 27 October through CKPool. The device may have been a Canaan Avalon Nano 3S, though that identification is an estimate.
The win highlights the lottery-like nature of solo Bitcoin mining, not a reliable way to earn income. Based on the article’s estimate of network hash rate, a 6.5 TH/s machine has roughly a 1-in-2,900 chance of finding a block in a year. Pool mining would bring in about $0.23 a day at the cited rates, versus an estimated $0.34 in electricity costs.
Small home miners are instead marketed for hobbyist participation and as space heaters, where the heat may offset some electricity costs. Meanwhile, larger Bitcoin mining companies face lower mining revenue and rising costs, with some shifting power capacity to AI computing. The win is unlikely to change Bitcoin’s market fundamentals, but it has renewed attention on solo Bitcoin mining and small-scale mining hardware.
Neutral
Bitcoin miningSolo miningMining hardwareMining profitabilityAI data centres
ZEC spot ETFs recorded total net inflows of $2.0735 million on October 28, according to SoSoValue data. The entire daily inflow went to the Zcash ETF (ZCSH). Cumulative historical net inflows for ZEC spot ETFs reached $211 million. Their total net assets stood at $757 million, equal to 3.43% of ZEC’s net asset value. The inflow points to continued investor demand for ZEC-linked ETF exposure, but the report provides no information about ZEC’s price reaction.
US SOL spot ETFs recorded net outflows on two consecutive days, according to SoSoValue. On 27 October, withdrawals totalled $19.155 million, all from Grayscale Solana Trust (GSOL). On 28 October, outflows eased to $5.66 million, with Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) accounting for the full amount. Across the two days, the flow data points to short-term pressure on sentiment around SOL spot ETFs, but does not by itself confirm a broader shift in demand. As of 28 October, cumulative net inflows across US SOL spot ETFs stood at $1.507 billion and total net assets were $1.558 billion; BSOL had accumulated $1.156 billion in net inflows. The earlier 27 October figures showed $1.513 billion in cumulative fund inflows and $1.544 billion in net assets.
The AI token rose 25% after trader @Salem1299534 (wallet 0xb8f...04eA) bought 7.445 million AI tokens, worth about $612,000, according to on-chain analyst Ember. The purchase was made roughly five hours before the report. The AI token’s sharp move may draw short-term trader attention, though the report does not establish whether the purchase alone caused the price increase.
Bullish
AI tokenOn-chain activityWhale buyingToken price surge
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate at 3.75%-4% in a 10-2 vote. At the press conference, Kevin Warsh said inflation remains too high, while the FOMC broadly believes its policy “medicine” is beginning to work. The report says a December rate hike appears likely, which would lift the target range to 4.00%-4.25%, although officials offered no clear forward guidance. The lack of clarity weighed on short-dated interest rates and the US dollar. For traders, the Fed rate decision signals continued uncertainty about the path of monetary policy, with the prospect of tighter policy potentially affecting risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Bearish
Federal ReserveInterest ratesInflationUS dollarCrypto markets
South Korea’s KOSPI rose 3.09% to close at 5,638.35 on 27 October, with SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics among the leading gainers. Japan’s Nikkei 225 also advanced 1.73%, as semiconductor shares outperformed. On 29 October, the KOSPI extended its gains by 1% to 6,074.25, according to Gate market data. SK Hynix climbed more than 4%, while Samsung gained over 1%. The continued strength in the KOSPI and major chipmakers signals positive momentum in Asian technology stocks, but neither summary identifies a direct catalyst or a specific impact on cryptocurrency prices.
Neutral
South Korean equitiesKOSPISK HynixSamsung ElectronicsSemiconductor stocks
An earlier MSX.com update put SKHY up 12% over 24 hours at 163.17 USDT. The later update showed SKHY trading at 165.11 USDT, with its reported 24-hour gain easing to 10.8%. Neither report explained the move, and the latest provided no trading-volume or broader market data. Traders can monitor SKHY’s price action and liquidity for signs of follow-through; the figures alone do not confirm a sustained trend or catalyst.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) named tokenization and evolving market infrastructure as priorities in its fiscal 2027 examination programme, published on October 23. The risk-based programme covers more than 34,000 registered entities, including advisers, broker-dealers, funds and clearing agencies. A 20-page staff document flags tokenization for reviews of clearing agencies and Regulation Systems Compliance and Integrity (Reg SCI), with attention to cybersecurity, access controls, incident response, technology providers and system reliability. The SEC also highlighted Treasury clearing reforms and customer-data protection. Tokenization is a supervisory focus, not a new crypto classification rule, ban or enforcement action: the priorities are non-binding, not exhaustive and may change. The focus follows a September innovation exemption for certain tokenized-stock venues, subject to conditions such as equivalent shareholder rights and auditable smart contracts. For digital-asset firms and traders, the SEC’s tokenization scrutiny signals closer attention to operational resilience, custody, valuation, disclosure and reconciliation with conventional securities systems. The announcement alone does not change market access, establish wider adoption or indicate a token-price move; market effects depend on further guidance and implementation.
Microsoft expects second-quarter revenue of $96 billion to $97.1 billion, with capital expenditure above $50 billion. Azure revenue growth is forecast at 49%, while Microsoft 365 commercial cloud revenue is expected to rise about 19% on a constant-currency basis. The company projects roughly $170 billion in capital expenditure for the calendar year, with spending accelerating in the second half of fiscal 2027. Microsoft shares rose as much as 6% after hours.
CITIC Securities still expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December, after leaving rates unchanged in October. The firm said the Fed’s statement sounded more optimistic about economic growth but more cautious about its policy outlook. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks were milder than in September, noting tighter credit conditions and improving inflation expectations. CITIC Securities said the rate-hiking cycle may be nearing its end, with the terminal rate potentially not far above current levels. It also warned that elevated oil prices could persist while uncertainty in the Middle East remains, and that improved dollar liquidity may require a new catalyst. The December Fed rate hike remains a forecast, not a confirmed policy decision.
Bearish
Federal ReserveInterest ratesMonetary policyDollar liquidityOil prices
US Representatives Greg Casar and Maxine Waters have introduced a non-binding resolution urging Congress to oppose federal bailouts and exceptional regulatory support for AI companies that become insolvent during a market downturn. The measure says struggling firms should instead use ordinary bankruptcy procedures, which it argues protect workers, consumers, pension holders and competition, while holding executives accountable for excessive risk-taking.
The proposal comes amid concern about borrowing by major technology companies and Wall Street to finance the AI boom, and warnings of a potential AI bubble. More than two-thirds of Americans reportedly support letting failing AI companies go through regular bankruptcy rather than receive government assistance. The resolution does not have the force of law and would not require approval from the Senate or the President.
For crypto traders, the proposal has no direct effect on digital assets. Its relevance is indirect: AI-sector stress or tighter expectations around public support could affect technology shares, risk appetite and broader market sentiment, potentially feeding into crypto volatility.
Neutral
AI regulationBankruptcyGovernment bailoutsTechnology sectorMarket risk
Ripple expects its RLUSD stablecoin to reach Robinhood app users later in 2026, though the companies have not announced a launch date or eligible regions. Robinhood reported 28.6 million funded customers in August, giving RLUSD a potentially broad retail distribution channel. RLUSD is already available on Robinhood Chain and Bitstamp, and its market capitalisation has risen from more than $2.4 billion to about $2.62 billion in the later report.
The partnership also includes plans to use RLUSD for institutional settlement on the XRP Ledger and Robinhood’s adoption of Ripple Treasury for global cash and liquidity management. Ripple Prime is expanding financing and trading services for Bitstamp, with perpetual futures planned later this year. The developments could increase RLUSD’s reach and institutional use, but no transaction targets or financial terms were disclosed. They do not guarantee higher demand for XRP, which is separate from the dollar-backed stablecoin.
US stablecoin rules took a major step forward as the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency finalised the first rules under the GENIUS Act. Taking effect on 18 January 2027, the framework covers reserves, redemptions, custody and capital for banks and approved issuers. The stablecoin rules arrive as JPMorgan brings its JPM Coin deposit token to Ethereum for institutional clients, while HSBC launches the Hong Kong dollar-backed RedCoin for PayMe users and more than 100,000 merchants.
Bitcoin fell for a third consecutive week, losing about 2% to around $80,000 amid rising oil prices and renewed concerns about Big Tech’s AI spending. US spot Bitcoin ETFs nevertheless recorded $301.2 million in net inflows for the week, led by $565.7 million into BlackRock’s IBIT. Ethereum ETFs saw $220.7 million in outflows. More than $400 million in mostly long positions was liquidated over four hours on Saturday.
Network developments were mixed: Solana activated its Alpenglow upgrade, reducing transaction finality time from about 12.8 seconds to roughly 150 milliseconds. Ethereum developers postponed a key Glamsterdam test after security concerns emerged, with no new date announced. Overall, institutional token launches and clearer stablecoin rules point to deeper links between crypto and traditional finance, while macroeconomic pressure continues to weigh on Bitcoin.
AI inference markets are emerging as a practical link between crypto and AI, offering cheaper access to models and computing power. Three projects take different approaches.
Orbio, on Robinhood Chain, focuses on AI agents. Its CREDIT token represents $1 of inference credit, while its market price was recently about $0.47. This discount can make computing cheaper for agents, but on-chain data indicates that most issued CREDIT has not been used, raising questions about the model’s sustainability.
Surplus Intelligence, on Base, aggregates model APIs and lets providers compete on price. Users can pay by card or USDC, and the platform says many requests cost less than one cent. It has the strongest reported usage of the three, but the SURPLUS token currently has no direct role in payments, routing or revenue sharing.
Antseed operates an open, peer-to-peer compute discovery network. Buyers choose providers directly, while ANTS is designed around staking and reputation. Its rewards currently come from treasury funds, so a direct link between growing inference demand and token value remains unproven.
The comparison highlights three distinct AI inference market strategies: agent-focused credits, low-cost API aggregation and open compute markets. Adoption, token utility and sustainable incentives are key factors for traders to monitor.
Neutral
AI inferenceCrypto and AIDecentralized computeAI agentsToken utility
Fiduciary Management’s Q3 2026 outlook says AI spending is driving unusually concentrated gains in US equities, while creating selective opportunities among stocks punished for perceived AI disruption.
The Russell 2000 fell 7.23% during the quarter, as higher borrowing costs pressured smaller companies. The S&P 500 gained 2.30%. The article also flags elevated investor optimism and warns that market returns and valuations may be difficult to sustain.
AI is central to the earnings outlook: consensus forecasts put S&P 500 operating earnings growth at about 28% in 2026, with AI investment gains potentially lifting it to around 33%. NVIDIA and Micron are projected to contribute more than a third of the index’s growth, while AI-linked companies account for roughly 45% of its market value. The article cites estimates that major cloud companies will spend about $800 billion on capital expenditure in 2026.
Fiduciary Management argues that broad selling of companies seen as vulnerable to AI has created potential value opportunities. It highlights Jack Henry, CDW and RELX, saying their established customer relationships, specialized data or services, and adoption of AI may make them more resilient than investors expect. The firm says it has increased positions in these companies during share-price weakness. These are the asset manager’s views, not guaranteed outcomes or investment advice.
Neutral
AI stocksUS equitiesMarket concentrationSmall-cap stocksValue investing
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will hold a public roundtable in Washington, D.C., on Dec. 15 to examine the operational and risk-management challenges of 24/7 derivatives trading. The session will be livestreamed and follows the agency’s summer request for public comment on extending trading hours for standard futures and introducing perpetual contracts.
Topics will include overnight trading, tokenized assets, and the infrastructure, staffing and operational readiness needed to keep markets running continuously. The discussion will focus mainly on traditional derivatives, while tokenization links the debate to digital assets. CFTC Chairman Selig has said the agency will seek industry input rather than take a one-size-fits-all approach. The CFTC 24/7 derivatives trading roundtable is for consultation and will not itself introduce new rules; its findings could inform future policy.
US President Donald Trump has declared imported robotics and industrial machinery a national security risk, but has not imposed tariffs. A Section 232 proclamation signed on October 28 directs the Commerce secretary and US Trade Representative to negotiate with trading partners over import levels for 180 days.
The review covers robotics, industrial machinery and parts, including CNC machines and metalworking tools. The Commerce Department found the US relies heavily on foreign supply, including equipment used in defence and infrastructure. US agencies have also raised concerns about cybersecurity risks tied to some advanced robots.
After the negotiation period, the administration may consider tariffs, quotas or incentives for domestic investment. Any tighter import controls could raise costs or constrain supply for manufacturers. There is no immediate tariff change, but the robotics import review leaves future trade policy uncertain.
House Democrats are cautiously optimistic about gaining seats in the 2026 midterm elections, despite concerns that polling may be unreliable. National polling averages suggest a Democratic advantage, and some models project the party could win a House majority. However, Democrats are wary of polling errors, Republican campaign spending and tight races that could affect control of the House. A prediction market tracking Republican House prospects showed a 7% YES price at publication, though the article cites no major new development behind the market reading. Traders will be watching changes in polling, campaign news and key races for signs that could shift election-related market prices.
Neutral
US midterm electionsHouse of RepresentativesPollingPrediction marketsUS politics
UC Berkeley economist Emmanuel Saez says California’s proposed Proposition 40 billionaire tax could reduce wealth inequality and limit the political influence of the wealthy. The measure would impose a one-time 5% tax on the global assets of California billionaires, with most revenue earmarked for healthcare. Voters are due to decide on 3 November 2026, and the article describes public support as closely divided. A Polymarket contract put the chance of the tax passing at about 23%, reflecting uncertainty despite Saez’s support. Governor Gavin Newsom has raised concerns that the tax could drive wealthy residents and companies out of California. The debate over Proposition 40 may shift with new polls, political endorsements or efforts to block or amend the measure.
Neutral
California Proposition 40Billionaire wealth taxWealth inequalityPolymarketPrediction markets
Datavault AI shares rose about 31% on Wednesday, despite the company’s disclosure that it cannot withdraw bitcoin held at Biconomy and will restate four sets of financial statements. The company said the bitcoin did not qualify for recognition as its digital assets and plans to record the purchase as a receivable from Scilex instead.
The restatement removes all reported bitcoin from Datavault AI’s books, including 837 BTC that Scilex agreed in a June binding term sheet to buy for $50 million. The companies have not disclosed a definitive purchase agreement, and Datavault AI has not set a date for its restated filings. It expects the accounting change to reduce total assets by $92.2 million at the end of 2025 and $49 million at June 30, 2026.
Datavault AI is also reassessing its ability to continue as a going concern, citing uncertainty about collecting amounts owed by Scilex. The unresolved access issue and financial restatement raise company-specific risks, even as the stock rebounded.
Datavault AI said it has been unable to withdraw Bitcoin from the Biconomy exchange since requesting a transfer in June, prompting accounting revisions and renewed concern over the company’s liquidity. In an October 26 SEC filing, the Nasdaq-listed firm said four previously filed financial reports should no longer be relied upon because Bitcoin received through a $150 million Scilex equity deal did not qualify as an asset Datavault owned. The company plans to restate the reports, reduce reported assets by $8.1 million to $92.2 million across affected dates, and reverse previously recorded crypto gains and losses.
Datavault said it received 1,309.04 BTC after 19.39 BTC was deducted for prior cash advances. It later returned 491.431 BTC to Scilex for about $40.5 million, while the remaining Bitcoin stayed in a Biconomy off-chain account. A proposed $50 million Scilex purchase of the remaining 837 BTC is subject to a definitive agreement. Datavault said collecting outstanding payments from Scilex and accessing the Bitcoin are uncertain, and management is reassessing whether the company can continue as a going concern. It has not provided a timetable for filing the restated statements and warned of possible further reporting delays.
Datavault AI shares fell about 50% around the disclosure, closing at $0.067 on October 28 after reaching an intraday low of $0.060. The episode highlights company-specific custody, accounting and liquidity risks for Bitcoin treasury firms; it does not, on its own, signal a broader change in Bitcoin market conditions.
Grass founder Andrej Radonjic says the decentralized data network is saturated and needs 30 to 50 times its current infrastructure to meet demand from AI companies. The Grass network gathers public web data through opt-in residential internet connections, and reportedly has more than 8 million active nodes and has delivered over 1 billion GB of data.
Demand comes from AI training datasets and real-time information used by models during inference. Grass reported about $17 million in revenue in 2025 and another $17 million in the first half of 2026. It projects $65 million to $75 million in full-year 2026 revenue from training data alone. The company has added data-center and GPU capacity, while reporting monthly operating expenses of $2 million to $3 million.
The compute bottleneck could constrain Grass’s ability to convert rising AI demand into growth. Traders will be watching network expansion, revenue performance and progress in live data retrieval. The figures are company-reported, and the article does not establish a direct effect on the GRASS token price.
Neutral
GrassDecentralized dataAI infrastructureCompute capacityWeb data