The Federal Reserve held its federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, citing strong economic growth, elevated inflation and ongoing uncertainty. The decision passed with ten votes; Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a quarter-point rate increase.
For Bitcoin, the hold leaves borrowing costs and dollar liquidity unchanged for now, but the two dissenting votes underline the risk that monetary policy could remain restrictive. Higher rates can make cash and yield-bearing assets more attractive than Bitcoin, which pays no income. The Fed did not signal a specific next move, and the decision does not establish that a rate cut or hike is imminent.
Crypto traders may monitor Treasury yields, the US dollar, Bitcoin ETF demand and derivatives positioning alongside upcoming inflation and employment data. These indicators can help show whether financial conditions are easing or continuing to weigh on risk appetite. A single announcement or trading session is not enough to establish a lasting Bitcoin trend.
The Federal Reserve held its target interest rate steady, in line with widespread expectations. The Fed’s pause suggests policymakers are waiting for more information, while the bond market appears willing to accept a temporary halt in rate hikes. Further increases remain possible as the central bank continues to confront inflation. The outlook is uncertain, with the Iran war among the key risks that could affect economic conditions and monetary policy. For crypto traders, the decision offers no direct market catalyst, but expectations for future rates and shifts in bond yields may influence risk appetite and volatility.
Neutral
Federal ReserveInterest ratesInflationBond marketCrypto market
Bitcoin has retreated from its rebound, which previously stalled near $88,000, and is now testing support around $80,000. The latest analysis places near-term support at $79,200–$79,500 on the daily chart and $78,400–$79,600 on the four-hour chart. A sustained break below these levels could expose demand around $75,000–$78,000. Bitcoin still shows lower highs after rejection from the $85,500–$90,500 supply zone and remains below a broken short-term trendline, although its broader ascending channel has been described as intact. To improve the short-term structure, BTC needs to reclaim $81,500–$82,000 and then overcome resistance around $84,000–$85,000; earlier analysis also identified $88,000 as a key resistance level. CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has turned positive, suggesting improved underlying momentum but not confirming a sustained bull market. Large average spot orders during the retreat show that major traders remain active, though order size alone does not reveal whether they are buying or selling. Traders are watching whether Bitcoin can hold the $80,000 area or reclaim $82,000 to show stronger demand.
Bearish
BitcoinBTC price analysisSupport and resistanceWhale activityCrypto market
AI power constraints are becoming a bigger obstacle to growth, with electricity supply, grid access and data-centre capacity increasingly limiting expansion alongside chip availability. UBS previously tracked 276 GW of data-centre capacity under construction or planned, but estimated that 2027 demand would require 57 GW against just 38 GW of sites with confirmed power. It highlighted the mismatch in timelines: data centres can take 12–24 months to build, while new power capacity may take five to 10 years. US grid interconnection queues total about 2.3 TW, with a median wait of roughly six years; UBS estimated $511 billion in new US power-generation investment would be needed by 2030. Transformer delivery can take up to 210 weeks. UBS also named Core Scientific (CORZ) and Applied Digital (APLD) among colocation operators it favours, projecting about 80% annual EBITDA growth from 2027 to 2029, and said power supply could reach around 415 GW by 2030 if planned projects proceed.
The later Delphi Digital analysis adds signs of mounting grid stress. ERCOT’s large-load queue rose from 63 GW at the end of 2024 to 474 GW by June 2026, with data centres accounting for about 90%. PJM’s last three capacity auctions reached the price cap and remained 6.6–6.8 GW below reliability targets. Goldman Sachs forecasts data-centre power demand will rise 170% from 2025 to 2030, with $7.6 trillion in related capital spending through 2031, and expects hyperscaler debt issuance to increase by $420 billion in 2027. NERC projects a 224 GW rise in North American summer peak demand over the next decade and warns that 13 of 23 regions could face shortfalls by 2030.
For traders, the reports reinforce that AI power constraints—and the ability to secure grid connections, equipment and project funding—are key indicators of whether planned data-centre capacity can come online. The trend may benefit power generation, grid equipment and interconnection providers, while creating execution and financing risks for AI infrastructure projects. UBS’s positive view on CORZ and APLD is company-specific; neither report identifies a direct price catalyst for cryptocurrencies.
Neutral
AI infrastructureElectricity demandPower gridData centresHyperscaler debt
Bitcoin per share (BPS) metrics help investors assess how much bitcoin treasury companies hold for each common share, but they do not all measure the same thing. Raw BPS divides bitcoin holdings by existing shares, while Bitcoin per assumed diluted share (BPADS) also includes potential shares from instruments such as warrants and convertible securities. BPADS can be conservative because those securities may never convert.
Net Bitcoin per share (Net BPS) goes further by accounting for senior claims, such as debt and preferred stock, which rank ahead of common equity. It estimates the bitcoin value remaining for common shareholders. Cash can either offset those claims or be reported separately, alongside Net BPS.
Because dollar-denominated claims become smaller in bitcoin terms as BTC rises, Net BPS changes with bitcoin’s price. To judge whether a financing deal genuinely benefits common shareholders, investors should compare Net BPS before and after the deal at a constant bitcoin price. The article argues that Net BPS is the most comprehensive measure for evaluating capital structure, economic accretion and a bitcoin treasury company’s implied equity value.
Neutral
BitcoinBitcoin per shareBitcoin treasury companiesCapital structureEquity dilution
Crypto trading platform Backpack has partnered with South Korea’s SK Securities to plan Korean stock trading access through the Backpack app for eligible global investors. SK Securities will contribute its expertise in South Korea’s capital markets, while Backpack will provide access to its international user base. The companies also plan to explore tokenized securities and real-world assets (RWA), building on Backpack’s existing US stock securities platform. The announcement did not specify a launch date or further details on eligibility. The planned Korean stock trading service could broaden Backpack’s financial offerings, but its immediate impact on crypto markets is likely limited.
Pump Box says it has opened a dedicated airdrop campaign for users who lost money trading PONS. The project announced the initiative on X and said eligible users can now access the participation portal. Pump Box has not disclosed the allocation, eligibility rules or distribution schedule, so the campaign’s potential value to affected traders remains unclear.
BiXBiT has launched custom firmware for Bitmain Antminer S21, S19, T21, T19, L9 and L7 series Bitcoin miners. The company says early deployments achieved up to 40% higher hashrate and 35% better energy efficiency, using tuned performance profiles, adjustable power settings and thermal controls. These are company-reported results, not independently verified figures.
The firmware can disable an unstable hashboard while keeping a miner running on its remaining boards. It connects to BiXBiT AMS 3.0, which lets operators monitor hashrate, temperature, power use and profitability, manage fleets and receive alerts. Support is limited to devices with Bitmain stock firmware released before August 2026; later versions are not yet supported. The launch may help mining operators optimize costs, but its direct effect on Bitcoin’s price is likely limited.
Brazil’s crypto regulation deadline falls on Friday, requiring exchanges already operating in the country to apply for authorization if they want to continue serving customers. Filing an application allows firms to keep operating while the Central Bank of Brazil reviews it, a process that could take up to two years. New providers must be authorized before launching regulated services.
The Brazil crypto licensing process carries significant costs. Capital requirements range from 10.8 million reais (about $2 million) to 37.2 million reais, alongside audits, technical certification and anti-money-laundering controls. Lawyers warn that these obligations could strain smaller exchanges and increase market concentration. Firms that miss the deadline must stop services within 30 days, while banks and payment providers face restrictions on transactions with unauthorized firms from Nov. 6.
Unresolved rules on verifying self-custody wallets, reporting transfers and applying a $100,000 limit to some international transactions are adding uncertainty. Binance Brazil chief Thiago Sarandy said unclear requirements could lead to inconsistent reporting. The Brazil crypto rules arrive as the country ranks first globally for grassroots crypto adoption, with $252.5 billion in crypto activity from July 2025 to June 2026, according to Chainalysis.
Neutral
Brazil crypto regulationCrypto exchange licensingCompliance costsCentral bank oversightMarket concentration
Hong Kong fintech PhotonPay has raised $40 million in a Series C round led by Blockchain Capital, with SBI Group, IDG Capital, GL Ventures and Lightspeed Faction also participating. PhotonPay plans to expand its stablecoin and fiat payment services, including multi-asset wallets, card issuance and local clearing infrastructure, and develop financial tools for AI agents.
PhotonPay reported $65 billion in annualized transaction volume as of August 2026. It holds 34 payment and financial licences, serves more than 200,000 business customers across over 200 countries and territories, and works with partners including J.P. Morgan and Mastercard. The funding follows its Series B in January 2026.
The raise reflects investor interest in stablecoin payment infrastructure and the potential for AI-driven commerce. Traders will be watching whether PhotonPay’s volume grows and whether its agent-focused payment services develop into recurring commercial activity.
Neutral
StablecoinsPaymentsFintechAI agentsVenture capital
Brazil crypto exchanges must file authorization applications with the Central Bank by October 30, 2026, to keep operating while their applications are reviewed. They must show they meet requirements for financial capacity, governance, technology and anti-money laundering controls. Providers that miss the deadline must cease operations, and authorized institutions will face restrictions on dealings with unauthorized firms. The deadline adds regulatory uncertainty to Brazil’s crypto market. The article identifies no direct market impact on XRP; any effect on broader crypto sentiment remains uncertain.
Sparrow Wallet 2.5.6 is a major maintenance release focused on security, accessibility and reliability for Bitcoin users. It adds checks for unconfirmed transaction signatures, Payjoin inputs, stored block hashes and hardware-wallet operations. The update also fixes wallet history and balance issues, improves handling of chain reorganisations, and adds compatibility changes for Bitcoin Core 32.1 and later.
Sparrow Wallet 2.5.6 upgrades Java and Tor, improves screen-reader and keyboard support, and adds shortcuts for navigating wallet functions. It also includes fixes for wallet imports, transaction broadcasting, device errors and other bugs. The release does not announce a token, funding round or market-moving partnership.
Silver prices fell 2.63% to $52.228 an ounce, while gold dropped 1.07% to $4,023.58 an ounce, according to Gate data reported by Odaily. Oil prices also declined: WTI crude was down 1.63% at $101.15 a barrel and Brent fell 0.88% to $114.04. European equities rose, with Germany’s DAX up 1.19%, while the US dollar showed mixed moves against the offshore yuan and yen. The report provides a snapshot of traditional markets; it gives no direct information about cryptocurrency prices or trading flows.
US stocks opened lower on 29 October, with the Dow Jones down 0.59%, the S&P 500 down 0.5% and the Nasdaq down 1.35%. AI stocks broadly fell: ServiceNow dropped 20.92%, Alphabet lost 12.1%, Marvell fell 10.7%, Atlassian declined 6.19% and Twilio slid 5.53%. The VIX volatility index rose 0.18%. The sharp decline in AI stocks points to pressure on technology shares and may weigh on broader risk appetite, although the report does not identify a specific cause.
Bearish
AI stocksUS equitiesTechnology sectorMarket volatility
XRP ETF cumulative net inflows reportedly reached a record $1.8 billion by October 16 and surpassed that level by the October 26 market close, according to figures cited in the articles. Net assets were about $1.47 billion in the earlier report; inflows measure investor contributions, while assets reflect the current value of fund holdings. The later update frames the XRP ETF inflows as evidence of continued institutional interest, despite cautious retail sentiment and slower secondary-market activity.
The earlier report said XRP traded near $1.31 on October 19, up about 2% over 24 hours but down roughly 7% for the week. Trading volume rose, while buying momentum remained weak. This divergence shows that XRP ETF inflows do not guarantee a price rally: broader sentiment, whale activity and on-chain flows can also affect XRP.
Both articles also promote UE Crypto, a cloud-mining and earnings platform, and describe fixed daily returns and claims about regulation, audits and asset protections. These claims and advertised returns are not independently verified in the articles. Traders should verify ETF data and approach the promotion cautiously.
The Financial Stability Board (FSB) has issued 12 voluntary practices for responsible AI use in financial services, including AML, KYC and financial crime investigations. The guidance urges boards and senior managers to maintain accountability, oversee third-party providers and monitor AI systems, but does not specify detailed requirements for agentic AI.
Elliptic says its eight-principle standard translates those expectations into checks for agentic AI used in on-chain risk management. It calls for clear human accountability, explainable decisions, ongoing performance validation and controls over providers. Its proposed benchmarks include coverage of at least 99% of value-moving transactions and evidenced uptime above 99.9%.
Elliptic data cited in the article shows agentic crypto payments rose 500% in the three months to September. The company argues that as agentic AI use grows, firms should be able to show what an AI agent decided, why it acted and who was responsible. The FSB practices are non-binding; Elliptic’s standard is intended to help firms assess providers.
The Bank of Russia says restrictions on self-custody wallets do not apply to international payments, preserving a channel for cross-border trade settlements. First Deputy Governor Vladimir Chistyukhin confirmed the exemption on October 29, 2026.
Domestically, rules effective from September 1 restrict transfers from regulated digital accounts to self-custody wallets. Existing wallet holdings are unaffected, while peer-to-peer transactions remain permitted until July 1, 2027. Unqualified investors, who make up about 98% of market participants, face an annual purchase cap of 300,000 rubles per intermediary. Thirteen organizations were licensed for digital currency exchange activities as of mid-October.
The policy keeps self-custody wallets available for international settlements while directing domestic crypto activity toward licensed intermediaries. Its impact will depend on how authorities distinguish cross-border from domestic transactions and enforce the upcoming peer-to-peer limits.
Neutral
Russia crypto regulationSelf-custody walletsCross-border paymentsDigital asset exchangePeer-to-peer trading
Anthropic has filed an IPO prospectus, a step that could bring the AI company closer to a public listing, according to the article citing Reuters. The company could be valued at more than $2 trillion, though the figure is a potential valuation rather than a confirmed IPO price. The filing puts Anthropic ahead of OpenAI in the race to become a major publicly listed AI lab. A prediction market cited in the article priced the chance of an IPO by December 31, 2026, at 94.4%. Traders will watch for further filings, IPO timing and valuation disclosures. The development may affect sentiment toward AI and technology stocks, but the article reports no direct impact on cryptocurrency markets.
US Senator Bill Hagerty discussed the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, crypto regulation and the role of stablecoins in an interview with Bitcoin Magazine. The conversation included a possible expansion of the reserve, which the chapter list references alongside 200,000 Bitcoin, but the article does not report a new policy decision or specific proposal. Hagerty also addressed the Clarity Act, the GENIUS Act, stablecoin rewards, and how stablecoins could support demand for US Treasuries and the dollar’s global role. He argued that regulatory uncertainty had enabled aggressive enforcement and said a lighter government touch could help crypto innovation. The interview also covered Bitcoin mining and energy development in Tennessee, public skepticism about crypto, and his opposition to a central bank digital currency (CBDC). For traders, the discussion highlights ongoing US policy debates around the Bitcoin Reserve and digital-asset regulation, rather than a confirmed change in law or government Bitcoin holdings.
Mosaic is a generative artwork by BitArt that turns Bitcoin data into evolving visual and musical compositions. It uses satoshi numbers and transaction-related data, including UTXOs, to determine the work’s colors, positions and sound. Participants’ Bitcoin transactions contribute to a composition that no single person controls.
The project, supported by the Bitcoin Art Society (BAS), has grown to more than 127 million tiles and one billion layers, according to BitArt. The artist says viewing every layer at one per second would take more than 30 years. Mosaic will appear on the main-stage LED screens at Bitcoin Amsterdam on November 5–6, 2026. The article frames the project as an experiment in generative art, collective authorship and digital preservation—not as a Bitcoin product or market announcement.
Neutral
BitcoinGenerative artOrdinalsDigital artBitcoin Art Society
Chainlink bought back about 92,800 LINK in the two hours before the report, worth approximately $1.07 million. The Chainlink buyback was more than 4,500 LINK larger than the previous week’s reported amount. The purchase adds a source of demand for LINK, though the report provides no further details about the buyback’s funding or its effect on market prices.
Solana has integrated Polygon’s Open Money Stack, connecting bank rails, wallets and exchanges to the Solana network. The integration is designed to let businesses access these services through a single connection. The announcement did not disclose launch metrics, transaction volumes or commercial terms, so the immediate effect on SOL trading is unclear. The move highlights continued efforts to improve payment and financial infrastructure across blockchain networks.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, as expected, and market reaction was muted. Two officials dissented in favor of a 0.25 percentage-point rate increase. The article argues the Fed is unlikely to hike again soon, with higher long-term yields and slowing capital expenditure potentially helping cool inflation, while fuel prices remain a key driver outside the Fed’s control.
Alphabet (GOOG) missed revenue and earnings expectations, prompting concerns about how it will fund artificial intelligence investment and about weakening free cash flow. The author warns that slower growth in AI infrastructure spending could pressure technology firms that supply data-center hardware and other “picks and shovels.” Investors may need to be more selective as the cycle shifts toward AI applications. For crypto traders, the Fed’s pause offers a broadly neutral macro signal, while changing expectations for tech and AI investment could affect sentiment toward crypto-related AI and infrastructure tokens.
Neutral
Federal ReserveInterest ratesAI investmentTechnology stocksCrypto market sentiment
US September PCE inflation remained elevated, reinforcing concerns that the Federal Reserve may keep rates higher for longer. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 3.6% year over year and 0.5% month over month. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased 3.1% annually and 0.3% monthly—both annual rates remain above the Fed’s 2% target.
Nominal consumer spending rose 0.5% in September, led by services, but inflation-adjusted real PCE was nearly flat. Personal income increased 0.2%, while real disposable income fell 0.3%. The personal saving rate was 3.8%.
The data arrived after the Fed held its policy rate at 3.75%–4.00%, with two officials dissenting in favor of a quarter-point increase. Sticky PCE inflation could support expectations of tighter monetary policy, keeping traders focused on rate decisions, Treasury yields and risk-sensitive assets such as Bitcoin. The figures do not by themselves determine the Fed’s next move; upcoming inflation and employment data will also shape market expectations.
Ethereum has fallen about 15% over the past month and is trading just above $2,300, with analysts warning that the price could drop to $2,000. On-chain analyst Ali Martinez said large investors sold around 160,000 ETH, worth nearly $350 million, in five days. Exchange balances also increased by 100,000 ETH, potentially putting more tokens within reach of sellers. Martinez added that ETH had lost support near $2,385 and that its chart pattern points to further downside if selling continues. Another trader said failure to reclaim $2,400 could leave Ethereum vulnerable to a fall below $2,200.
There are also signs of possible short-term support. One large trader reportedly opened a $45 million ETH long position with 25x leverage and has recorded a 100% win rate across 20 trades, though the claim does not establish that the trader has inside information. Ethereum’s Relative Strength Index is just above 30, near the oversold zone, which can precede a rebound but does not guarantee one. Overall, whale selling and technical weakness pose downside risks, while the leveraged long and low RSI offer potential counter-signals.
Polygon Open Money Stack (OMS) now supports Solana, allowing businesses to manage stablecoin payments from bank deposits through cross-chain transfers to payouts. The service combines fiat on- and off-ramps, virtual accounts, embedded Solana wallets, payment routing and cash-out options in one product flow.
Polygon says its regulated fiat infrastructure is backed by money transmitter licences in 48 US states. OMS supports USDC, USDT, PYUSD, SOL and wrapped SOL, routing assets between Solana, TRON and EVM chains. Businesses can also use selected components alongside their own wallets, compliance providers or settlement systems.
The integration targets fintechs, payment apps, marketplaces and other platforms building on Solana. Polygon cites more than $2 trillion in quarterly stablecoin volume on Solana, and says the expansion lets businesses keep Solana as their settlement layer while adding tools for real-world payments. The announcement is an infrastructure expansion; the article does not report new transaction volumes or customer adoption.
Neutral
Polygon Open Money StackSolanaStablecoin paymentsCross-chain paymentsCrypto infrastructure
Bitcoin ETFs recorded $137 million in net inflows on Wednesday, bringing October flows close to breakeven after a mid-month deficit of $907 million. The shift follows a broader change in ownership: nine hedge funds and banks sold about 68,000 BTC worth of ETF shares over nine months, while sovereign wealth funds, wealth managers and other investors added exposure. Since June, funds have reportedly bought back 87,000 BTC, this time through direct purchases rather than basis-trade arbitrage.
The article says the arbitrage trade became less attractive as its annualized return fell from 7.9% to 4.8%, leaving an estimated 1.5 percentage points over cash after costs. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75%–4.00%, and market expectations for further rate hikes eased, potentially supporting risk assets. Bitcoin was trading near $80,000, down about 2% over 24 hours, while Ethereum and Solana also declined.
Other developments included a planned NYSE-parent partnership with Trade.xyz to offer regulated US perpetual futures using Hyperliquid infrastructure, pending approval; Visa’s stablecoin settlement volume exceeding $25 billion annualized, more than ten times last year’s level; and $21 million in net outflows from ETH ETFs. The ETF flow reversal and reported institutional buying may support sentiment, though short-term price action remains exposed to macro conditions and market volatility.
Bitcoin lending and yield generation could create a new source of institutional demand, according to a report from Bitcoin infrastructure developer RootstockLabs. The report estimates that only 1.5% of Bitcoin’s supply is currently used in lending and Bitcoin-native finance, while identifiable institutional investors hold about 3.9 million BTC.
RootstockLabs says lending, structured credit and using Bitcoin as collateral could help institutions earn returns on existing holdings and improve balance-sheet efficiency. In a hypothetical scenario where institutional holdings double to 7.8 million BTC, a 5% yield on 5% of those holdings would generate 19,500 BTC a year. The report presents this as potential returns, not a forecast of new demand.
The report also highlights risks from leverage, rehypothecation, custody failures, borrower defaults and legal uncertainty. RootstockLabs institutional propositions director Tony DiCarlo said Bitcoin’s verifiable collateral and programmable liquidation rules may mitigate some risks, while volatility remains a concern. He cited a $750 million Bitcoin-backed loan by MARA to help finance a planned Ohio power plant acquisition as an example of Bitcoin being used for real-world financing.
Chainalysis traced a network of Russian intermediaries that helped North Korean IT workers convert millions of dollars in cryptocurrency into cash through the Russian exchange Garantex. The findings followed US sanctions against 10 people and one entity accused of helping North Korean government-run IT schemes fund weapons programmes.
The US Treasury said Russian national Ilya Boykov converted about $3.5 million in cryptocurrency for sanctioned company Alis since 2024. Another Russian, Vitold Obertas, allegedly handled nearly $2 million in conversions for North Korean officials since January 2025. Chainalysis described one route in which a North Korean worker’s stablecoin payments were converted into Ether (ETH), consolidated, sent to Boykov, and then transferred to Garantex for cash-out.
The case highlights ongoing risks from North Korean IT workers using false identities to obtain jobs at crypto firms, as well as scrutiny of exchanges and intermediaries facilitating illicit crypto flows.
Neutral
North KoreaGarantexCrypto sanctionsMoney launderingCybersecurity