CryptoRank data shows Solana (SOL) and derivatives platform Hyperliquid (HYPE) led blockchain revenue in 2025, with Solana collecting about $1.3 billion in on-chain fees and Hyperliquid about $816 million; Ethereum (ETH) generated roughly $524 million. Solana’s revenue was driven by sustained transaction throughput across DEX activity, memecoin trading, DePIN and consumer apps while its TVL remained range-bound at roughly $7–$12 billion — indicating higher fee generation per unit of capital rather than TVL growth. Hyperliquid’s fees were concentrated in perpetuals and derivatives execution; its TVL rose from ~$2 billion early in the year to peaks above $6 billion before settling near $4.1 billion. Santiment and CryptoRank evidence cited in the reports point to a market shift: networks optimised for execution quality and high-frequency activity convert flow into fees more efficiently than chains that rely on deep but less active liquidity. For traders, the key takeaways are to monitor on-chain activity metrics (transaction volume, DEX swaps, derivatives volume) and fee-capture rates as leading indicators of network revenue potential. Watch SOL for throughput-driven trade opportunities and HYPE for derivatives flow — but adjust risk sizing for liquidity concentration and potential sentiment swings.
Trust Wallet confirmed a security incident in its Chrome browser extension v2.68 that led to roughly $7 million in funds being drained. Blockchain investigator ZachXBT first flagged suspicious drains after users imported seed phrases into the extension; researchers suspect a supply‑chain or malicious update introduced the vulnerability. Trust Wallet says the issue was isolated to v2.68 — mobile apps and other extension versions were not affected — and advised users to disable the extension immediately and update to v2.69. The company published an official update on Dec 26, is conducting internal audits, has not disclosed a full technical root cause, and warns users to ignore messages outside official channels to avoid follow‑on phishing scams. Trust Wallet has committed to fully refunding affected users and is finalising the refund process. Key trader actions: monitor TWT sentiment and on‑chain movements from drained wallets, avoid interacting with untrusted extensions, consider moving high‑value holdings to hardware wallets or multisig, and verify any refund instructions via official Trust Wallet channels. Primary keywords: Trust Wallet, browser extension security, $7M loss. Secondary/semantic keywords: supply‑chain attack, seed phrase compromise, refund, on‑chain draining, extension update.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz warned that community loyalty alone will not sustain tokens like XRP and ADA through the 2025 market cycle; projects must demonstrate measurable real-world utility and revenue models. Novogratz contrasted Bitcoin’s distinct valuation as money with other chains that will be valued like businesses, driven by revenues, profits and platform usage. He singled out XRP and Cardano (ADA) as examples facing pressure to move beyond narrative and prove business use cases such as cross-border payments, enterprise adoption and protocol fee generation. Key metrics traders should watch include transaction fee revenue, protocol revenue distribution, enterprise partnerships, developer activity and on-chain usage. Novogratz noted market maturation — greater institutional participation and regulatory scrutiny — is shifting capital toward assets with demonstrable economic substance and management quality. He cited token models with clear, equity-like value (e.g., tokens using buybacks/burns tied to profits) as increasingly favored. Galaxy Digital’s internal tracking shows divergence between genuinely adopted networks and those reliant on community momentum; historical cycles (like many 2017 ICO tokens fading) support the view that projects with real use cases hold up better. For traders, the takeaway is to prioritize fundamentals — measurable usage, partnership announcements, on-chain revenue metrics and developer engagement — when assessing XRP and ADA exposure ahead of the next cycle. This is not trading advice; investors should do independent research.
TRON (TRX) has traded in a tight range between $0.27 and $0.29 since early November, with the price currently around $0.278–$0.288. Buyers repeatedly pushed TRX above short-term moving averages but were rejected at the $0.29 resistance on multiple attempts. Short-term charts show Doji candlesticks and price oscillating around the 21-day and 50-day simple moving averages, indicating market indecision. On the 4‑hour chart TRX has slipped below the 21-day SMA several times while holding near the 50-day SMA, suggesting limited upward momentum until moving-average resistance is reclaimed. Immediate support sits at $0.27, with a downside target near $0.25 if that level fails. Wider supports noted at $0.20, $0.15 and $0.10; upside breakout levels to watch are $0.33–$0.35 and longer-term resistances at $0.40–$0.50. For traders, the setup points to a sideways/ranging market with limited short-term upside unless buyers retake $0.29; failure to do so keeps TRX capped by moving-average resistance and raises the risk of a break toward $0.25. This summary is for informational purposes and not trading advice.
Neutral
TRONTRXTechnical AnalysisSupport and ResistanceRange-bound Trading
Nicholas Crypto Income ETF (BLOX) has outperformed both YieldMax’s LFGY and a spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) over the past six months, returning +15.51% versus IBIT’s -14.62% and LFGY’s capital-depleting performance. Earlier coverage described BLOX as an income-first product using ETP holdings, crypto equities and options-writing to target high distributions (much classified as return of capital). The later, updated analysis credits BLOX’s recent outperformance to a diversified portfolio mix — spot Bitcoin ETFs, crypto equities and flexible options strategies (put spreads and covered-call-like structures) — and to income from physical assets plus options premiums. By contrast, LFGY relies on a synthetic options approach that the author argues produces higher beta, structural capital erosion and larger NAV drawdowns during Bitcoin sell-offs. A stress test cited in the updated piece estimates a 20% Bitcoin drop could cut BLOX NAV by ~18–25% but LFGY NAV by ~35–45%. Analysts rate BLOX a Buy for its structured asset selection and income generation, and assign LFGY a Hold due to higher downside risk. Key takeaways for traders: BLOX offers income overlay and lower downside volatility versus pure-spot BTC exposure, benefits from options premium and diversified holdings, and may trade with lower beta to BTC/ETH; however, many distributions are return of capital (affecting tax timing and cost basis) and payout sustainability depends on ongoing options income and market volatility. Short-term implication: BLOX can cushion BTC drawdowns but may lag strong crypto rallies. Long-term implication: BLOX is more defensive in prolonged bear markets but will underperform in sharp bull runs.
On-chain data show large Bitcoin holders (100–1,000 BTC, dubbed “sharks”) sharply increased net purchases in late 2025 while BTC traded in a narrow range. Glassnode-derived metrics and estimates indicate these wallets accumulated up to roughly $23.5 billion of BTC in recent weeks, though totals vary with cohort definitions, custody reshuffles and price assumptions. Over the same six-month window, traditional safe-haven metals outperformed: gold rose ~38% and silver over 100%, while Bitcoin’s market cap fell about 17% from highs above $110,000. Price action has retraced from >$110k into a tight consolidation between roughly $85,000 and $92,000, with long-wick candles and compressed volatility signalling two-way trading and market absorption of prior selling. Net inflows into some U.S. spot BTC ETFs persist, pointing to continued institutional demand. Analysts caution on-chain accumulation can be skewed by exchange/custody address moves but say sustained buying by large wallets often reflects longer-term bullish positioning by smart money. For traders: large-wallet accumulation is a bullish structural signal for BTC, metals’ outperformance suggests capital rotated into safe havens (risk-off flows), and the current technical compression raises the odds of a decisive breakout or breakdown — watch support, resistance and ETF flows for triggers and liquidity dynamics.
Japan’s FY2026 tax blueprint proposes reclassifying certain crypto assets as financial products and taxing eligible spot trading, derivatives and crypto ETFs under a separate regime. Key measures in the draft include a proposed flat combined national and local tax of about 20% on eligible crypto gains (vs. current miscellaneous-income rates up to ~55%) and allowing up to three years of loss carryforward for trading losses. Eligibility is likely limited to “specified crypto assets” handled by firms registered under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, which could exclude smaller tokens, informal markets and activities on unregistered platforms. Staking rewards, lending yields and most NFT transactions appear to remain taxed as general (miscellaneous) income and outside the new regime. The draft aims to align crypto taxation more closely with equities, which could encourage institutional participation, improve liquidity and strengthen the case for spot Bitcoin ETFs and other regulated products. Authorities stress the blueprint signals intent rather than finalized law; implementation details, exact scope, qualifying criteria and transitional rules remain subject to future legislation and regulatory guidance. Traders should monitor scope definitions, registration requirements and timing — changes would affect after-tax returns, position sizing, loss-harvesting strategies and whether to route activity through registered venues ahead of FY2026.
Bullish
Japan crypto taxcrypto ETFsloss carryforwardtax reformregulatory clarity
Aave DAO voters rejected a proposal to transfer off-chain brand assets (domains, social accounts, trademarks, GitHub and naming rights) from Aave Labs to DAO control. The vote closed Dec. 25 with record turnout: ~1.8M AAVE in voting power. Results: 55.3% NO, 3.5% YES and 41.2% ABSTAIN. Snapshot data showed concentrated voting power — the top three wallets held over 58% of votes (largest ~27.1%, aci.eth ~18.5%) — raising concerns about decentralization and vote representation. The proposal had been proposed by former Aave Labs CTO Ernesto Boado to better align economic risk borne by $AAVE holders with control over brand assets. The governance clash followed controversy after Aave Labs integrated CoW Swap into app.aave.com, which redirected swap fees to an Aave Labs wallet rather than the DAO treasury — a change critics estimated could divert up to ~$10m annually. Aave founder Stani Kulechov publicly supported alignment but disclosed a personal $15m $AAVE purchase before the vote, saying the buy reflected conviction and was not intended to sway governance. Aave DAO’s treasury reported strong performance (about $140m revenue in 2025), and Kulechov pledged clearer explanations of how Aave Labs products create value for $AAVE holders and better Labs–DAO alignment. Key implications for traders: governance tensions persist between Aave Labs and token holders; concentrated voting power keeps representation and decentralization risks elevated; potential follow-up proposals on fee routing or asset control could spur volatility; leadership moves and public token buys may affect market sentiment and liquidity for AAVE. Primary keywords: Aave, AAVE token, DAO governance, treasury revenue, governance vote. Secondary/semantic keywords: brand assets, CoW Swap, fee routing, vote concentration, Stani Kulechov.
Sberbank, Russia’s largest bank, has issued a pilot corporate loan secured by domestically mined cryptocurrency to Intelion Data JSC, one of the country’s largest miners. The mined coins (including Bitcoin) are held in Sberbank’s Rutoken custody system for the loan term to reduce custody and volatility risk. Sberbank Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov said the transaction tested digital-collateral processes and compliance workflows that could inform upcoming regulation. The pilot anticipates planned changes from the Bank of Russia that would broaden crypto trading and derivatives access for retail and qualified investors by July 1, 2026. The move follows Russia’s 2024 mining regulation—though fewer than one-third of miners have registered—within a sector estimated at roughly 200,000 farms and significant concentration among large operators (Intelion, Bitriver). Key implications for traders: (1) increased institutional acceptance of BTC and other mined assets as bank-backed collateral; (2) potential rise in demand for on-chain custody and custody-as-a-service offerings like Rutoken; (3) miners gaining access to liquidity without selling holdings, which could reduce selling pressure; and (4) regulatory developments that may change mining economics and capital flows in Russia. Traders should monitor further bank pilots, registration uptake among miners, and the Central Bank’s regulatory timeline, as these factors could affect regional BTC supply dynamics and custody demand.
Ripple released XRPL v3.0.0 and has opened five protocol amendments for validator voting through January 2026: fixAMMClawbackRounding, fixIncludeKeyletFields, fixMPTDeliveredAmount, fixPriceOracleOrder and fixTokenEscrowV1. These changes correct AMM clawback rounding, add identifying fields to ledger objects, restore DeliveredAmount metadata for MPT payments, enforce canonical asset-pair ordering for price-oracle entries, and fix escrow accounting for MPT transfers with fees. Collectively they improve oracle reliability, on-chain accounting and AMM behavior — reducing operational risk and improving price and risk-model inputs for traders. Separately, Ripple engineer Edward Hennis announced an on-ledger institutional XRPL Lending Protocol targeted for validator voting in January 2026. The protocol will use Single Asset Vaults, provide fixed-term/fixed-rate underwritten credit, and allow private or public contributions; intended use cases include market-maker inventory borrowing, PSP prefunding of merchant payouts and short-term working capital for fintech lenders. Traders should monitor validator votes, amendment activation timelines, oracle behavior after activation, MPT escrow flows and AMM liquidity shifts. The immediate amendments mainly reduce execution and accounting risk on XRPL; the prospective lending protocol is a structural change that could raise on-ledger demand for XRP and related stablecoins (e.g., RLUSD) if adopted, potentially affecting supply dynamics and yields.
Tokenized commodities — blockchain-backed digital representations of physical metals — have climbed to an estimated $3.93 billion after rising about 11% in the past month, driven by record highs in precious metals. Spot gold peaked near $4,530/oz and silver briefly hit $74.56/oz. RWA.xyz data show Tether Gold (XAUt) leads the market at roughly $1.74 billion and Paxos Gold (PAXG) follows at about $1.61 billion. Tokenized precious metals enable on-chain transfers outside traditional market hours, but pricing, liquidity and redemption remain tied to legacy markets and off-chain infrastructure.
Ethereum dominates tokenized real-world assets (RWA), holding approximately 65% of tokenized RWA value (~$12.7B), with BNB Chain around 10.5% (~$1.85B). Standard Chartered projects tokenized RWA (excluding stablecoins) could expand to $2 trillion by 2028, with about $250 billion flowing into less liquid asset classes such as private equity and commodities. On-chain activity from RWAs is increasing Ethereum fees (Ethereum recorded ~$11.41M in fees over the past 30 days) but remains small versus stablecoins and fungible-token trading; chains dominated by stablecoins (Tron, BNB Chain, Solana) currently capture larger fee shares.
For traders: rising tokenized commodity market caps and record metal prices signal growing institutional and retail interest, especially for Ethereum-based tokenized assets. Expect potential increases in on-chain trading volume and liquidity for XAUt and PAXG, greater correlation between crypto and precious-metal markets, and persistent counterparty and redemption risks tied to off-chain custodial and pricing mechanisms. Watch Ethereum activity and fee metrics for signs of growing RWA flow, and monitor liquidity/redemption terms of individual tokenized metal products before trading.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered an ’extreme fear’ reading of 20 on Dec. 26, marking about two weeks of elevated fear — one of the longest such streaks since the index began in 2018. The index fell three points on Dec. 26 and has weakened steadily since October following a near-$500 billion market drawdown tied to US–China tariff tensions and an October 10 liquidation wave. The gauge combines volatility, trading volume, social sentiment, Google Trends, investor surveys and Bitcoin dominance.
Data providers report sharply reduced retail engagement: Google search and Wikipedia traffic, forum activity and social volume have dropped to typical bear-market levels. Crypto-native retail is said to be largely sidelined after shocks such as the FTX collapse, memecoin crashes and absent altcoin seasons. Traditional retail flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs remain strong (over $25bn in 2025), even as BTC trades roughly 30% below its October all-time high. Analysts warn macro uncertainty — notably Fed policy and potential changes to rate-cut expectations — could push Bitcoin lower; some market voices see scenarios where BTC falls toward the mid-five-figure range.
For traders: the persistent ’extreme fear’ reading raises downside risk and the potential for amplified volatility and larger liquidations. Monitor Bitcoin dominance, volatility spikes, Google Trends and social-volume metrics for early signs of sentiment inflection. Prioritise risk management, position sizing and liquidity planning until retail engagement and macro clarity improve.
A supply‑chain attack on Trust Wallet’s Chrome browser extension (v2.68) was disclosed on 26 December 2025 after an official update injected malicious code that phished seed phrases and drained users’ wallets. Approximately $6.7–7.0 million across Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana was stolen from hundreds of addresses, with individual losses ranging from ~ $50,000 up to $3.5 million. On‑chain investigators (ZachXBT, Lookonchain and others) traced laundering routes through services such as ChangeNOW and FixedFloat and observed funds moving towards exchanges including KuCoin and HTX. Trust Wallet released v2.69 to remove the malicious code, advised users to uninstall v2.68, assume seed compromise and migrate assets to new wallets; mobile Trust Wallet and core private‑key infrastructure were reported unaffected. Binance founder Changpeng Zhao confirmed Binance (owner of Trust Wallet) will fully reimburse verified victims and said core systems remain secure. For traders: expect short‑term sell pressure and heightened caution around browser‑extension custody, possible exchange inflows as attackers cash out, and a spike in on‑chain monitoring activity. Actionable steps: monitor on‑chain movement and exchange deposit flows (KuCoin, HTX), avoid interacting with suspicious extensions, and advise affected counterparties to move funds to new wallets or hardware wallets. Primary keywords: Trust Wallet, Chrome extension hack, supply‑chain attack; secondary keywords: seed phrase theft, Binance reimbursement, wallet security.
USDC treasury addresses minted 90,000,000 USDC on the Ethereum network, as detected and reported on-chain by monitoring service Whale Alert. Earlier reports noted a 60,000,000 USDC mint; the later update indicates a larger 90M issuance. Reports provide no on-chain context about recipients, purpose, whether the mint corresponds to new fiat backing or internal treasury reallocation, nor any immediate redemptions or transfers. For traders: a sizable USDC mint increases stablecoin supply and on-chain liquidity, which can enable larger flows across DeFi protocols and exchanges. Without accompanying transfer or redemption data, the short-term price impact on USDC is unclear; market effects are more likely to show up as shifts in stablecoin availability and potential changes in lending/borrowing dynamics and stablecoin-based funding across DeFi. This update is informational and not investment advice. Primary keyword: USDC. Secondary keywords: USDC minting, Ethereum, stablecoin supply, Treasury.
Ethereum plans two protocol-level upgrades in 2026: Glamsterdam (mid‑2026) and Heze‑Bogota (late‑2026). Glamsterdam targets throughput and node costs by introducing parallel transaction processing, a major gas‑limit increase (projected ~60M → 200M), and a shift toward ZK-based validation for validators. Early tests show multi-fold throughput gains (developer estimates range from severalx to orders of magnitude), with potential to reduce L2 congestion and lower fees. Heze‑Bogota focuses on privacy, censorship resistance and decentralization by reducing exposed transaction data and limiting reliance on centralized infrastructure while maintaining auditability. The upgrades are sequenced: Glamsterdam first to boost speed and capacity, then Heze‑Bogota to add privacy protections. Market context: ETH traded under $3,000 (~$2.8–$2.9k) at reporting, with $3,000 as immediate resistance; a technical indicator cited suggested a bullish close to 2025 and a strong start to 2026. Traders should monitor developer calls, testnet deployments, gas‑limit changes and ZK validation milestones. Realized benefits and any material price upside depend on successful implementations, testnet results, broader crypto market conditions and potential short‑term bearish pressures.
Solstice and Cor Prime executed the first institutional stablecoin-for-stablecoin repurchase agreement (repo) on a public blockchain, settling via Membrane’s post-trade infrastructure. The deal used tokenised USD stablecoins — one as collateral to borrow another — creating a collateralised short-term loan structure familiar to TradFi but settled atomically on-chain through smart contracts and identity-verified institutional addresses. Key outcomes: it proved technical feasibility for institutional-grade, on-chain cash-management primitives; reduced settlement times and counterparty risk through collateralisation and atomic settlement; and demonstrated a regulated-friendly model for custody, KYC/AML and auditability. Traders should note implications for capital efficiency (stablecoin holders can obtain liquidity without off‑ramping to fiat), 24/7 liquidity management, and potential reductions in fiat banking frictions. The pilot could accelerate development of decentralized repo markets and broader TradFi–DeFi integration, potentially unlocking trapped liquidity and changing institutional treasury operations if adoption widens.
Aave’s governance dispute escalated after an ARFC proposal to transfer brand assets (domains, social accounts, naming rights) from Aave Labs to the DAO was decisively rejected (≈994,800 against vs ~63,000 for) with a large abstention (~41%). The conflict followed community claims that Aave Labs rerouted front‑end swap fee flows when switching aggregators (ParaSwap → CowSwap), potentially diverting substantial revenue away from the DAO — estimates suggested up to ~$200k weekly. Founder Stani Kulechov defended Aave Labs, noting the DAO generated roughly $140M this year and saying his $10–15M AAVE spot buy was not used to influence votes. Market reaction was immediate: a major holder executed a programmed sell of ~230,000 AAVE (≈$38M notional), crystallizing heavy selling pressure after buying earlier at higher prices. AAVE price fell roughly 20% during the week (from high $180s to mid $140s), with perp funding turning negative and volatility spiking. Aave Labs has initiated an ARFC snapshot to resolve brand-control issues while pledging clearer communications on value delivery to the DAO. For traders: expect elevated volatility and downside risk in the short term — key support sits around $140–$142; a decisive break lower would likely accelerate exits, while governance clarity, a large buyer, or institutional fixes would be needed to restore confidence and remove the governance discount.
Trust Wallet confirmed a security incident in its Chrome browser extension version 2.68 after on-chain investigator ZachXBT reported multiple user wallets drained on Dec 25. The attacker injected malicious code in an extension update, draining approximately $6–7 million in user funds. Cybersecurity firm PeckShield estimated over $6M stolen, with roughly $2.8M still in hacker-controlled addresses and more than $4M moved to centralized platforms including KuCoin, HTX, ChangeNOW and FixedFloat. Binance co‑founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ), who holds a majority stake in Trust Wallet, said the company will cover losses for affected users. Trust Wallet advised web-extension users to disable the extension immediately, enable Chrome Developer mode to inspect, and upgrade to version 2.69 — mobile wallet users and other extension versions are not affected. Independent investigators are collecting theft addresses to trace on-chain flows; affected users should contact Trust Wallet support. Trader actions: check your Trust Wallet extension version, disable and update if on 2.68, move high-value assets to cold wallets, avoid interacting with suspicious extension prompts, and monitor on-chain flows and exchange deposits tied to the exploit.
Lugano has expanded its Plan ₿ program so residents and merchants can pay and accept municipal invoices and everyday purchases using Bitcoin (on‑chain or Lightning) and USDT. Payments route over Lightning or are processed by Bitcoin Suisse and are immediately converted to Swiss francs, with an embedded ~1% FX/processing fee; the city does not hold crypto on its balance sheet. The MyLugano app offers up to 10% LVGA token cashback at participating merchants; LVGA can be spent on municipal services, creating a city‑backed circular payments loop. Over 350 merchants accept Lightning payments and the Plan ₿ Forum attracted more than 4,000 attendees in October 2025, indicating growing real‑world usage. For traders, the rollout increases localized, persistent utility demand for BTC (more hot‑wallet receipts and Lightning onboarding) while creating steady sell‑side conversion pressure as receipts are flipped to CHF. Near‑term price impact is likely limited — liquidity, ETF flows and funding rates remain dominant drivers — but the initiative strengthens structural demand and broadens use‑case narratives that can support long‑term price floors for BTC.
Neutral
Bitcoin paymentsLightning NetworkLugano Plan ₿Stablecoins (USDT)Merchant adoption
Crouton Digital, an institutional-grade blockchain infrastructure provider based in Riga, raised $1 million in strategic funding to expand validator operations, public and private RPC endpoints, archive nodes, Node-as-a-Service (NaaS) and institutional staking products across 45+ networks. The firm is shifting from a validator-focused operator to a full-spectrum Web3 infrastructure provider, emphasizing bare-metal, multi-region deployments, internal telemetry, dashboards and high-availability architecture to support low-latency, high-throughput, mission-critical workloads during congestion, upgrades and peak usage. Crouton participates in early validator alignment and support programs for next-generation and existing protocols including Monad, Starknet, Somnia Network, Story Protocol, IOTA and Walrus, aiding incentivized testnets, mainnet launches and governance activation. The company holds a verified AAA (VSP) reliability rating from Staking Rewards and has begun SOC 2 and ISO/IEC 27001 certification processes to meet institutional compliance expectations. Funding will be used to scale global multi-region validator operations, roll out RPC and archive node services, grow institutional staking offerings (delegation, white-label validators, reporting) and enhance observability and automated reliability tooling for protocols, funds, custodians and enterprise clients. Key SEO keywords: Crouton Digital, RPC nodes, Node-as-a-Service, institutional staking, validator operations.
Toncoin (TON) has been range-bound above the $1.45 support since testing a $1.42 low on Nov. 21. After a brief push above the 21-day SMA on Dec. 7, TON failed to sustain gains toward the 50-day SMA and was capped around $1.60–$1.49, then retraced to remain range-bound above $1.45. Short-term momentum has eased: moving averages on higher timeframes slope downward and price is trading under these averages, while the 4‑hour chart shows buyers repeatedly stalled at the 50‑day SMA. Key longer-term resistance zones cited are $4.00, $4.50 and $5.00; broader historical support levels mentioned include $3.50, $3.00 and $2.50. For traders, the critical near-term level is $1.45 — a decisive break below it would likely open a path to $1.17 and, in a deeper bearish scenario, toward prior lows near $0.70. The overall short-term outlook is neutral-to-bearish while TON stays compressed in this range; volatility and directional bias will depend on whether buyers can reassert above the 50‑day SMA or sellers force a break of $1.45. This is market commentary, not investment advice.
Deribit processed a record $28+ billion notional options expiry on Dec 26, 2025, combining monthly, quarterly and annual settlements and removing more than half of the platform’s open interest (OI). Pre‑expiry platform OI was about $42 billion. Key figures: ~267,000 Bitcoin options expired (BTC notional ≈ $23.6B) with a put‑to‑call ratio of 0.35 and BTC maximum‑pain near $95,000; ~1.28M Ethereum options expired (ETH notional ≈ $3.71B) with ETH maximum‑pain at $3,100. The settlement concentrated post‑expiry OI into March contracts (roughly 30% of OI), shifting directional risk forward. Strike clustering moved BTC interest toward downside strikes (most concentrated at $75,000; large pockets at $80k–$85k) while call interest grows above $90,000. The expiry occurred amid low year‑end liquidity, elevated short‑term volatility and a crypto Fear & Greed Index in the mid‑20s, prompting institutional hedging and repositioning that likely amplified intraday price moves. For traders: watch clustered BTC put strikes at $75k–$85k for downside hedging flows, liquidity and liquidation risk around the $90k resistance band, and March expiries for near‑term directional gamma and order‑book squeezes. Large notional and low put‑to‑call ratio point to significant sensitivity to future expiries and heightened short‑term volatility; manage size, monitor order‑book depth and expiry rolls for trading and risk decisions.
XRP is trading around $1.85, down ~15% in December, but analysts attribute the weakness to derivatives-driven pressure ahead of a large global options expiry included in a $7.1 trillion event. Market analyst Zach Rector warns that leveraged long liquidations tied to the expiry could push XRP briefly to $1.60–$1.70 as a short-term washout to clear leverage. Rector and other observers note ongoing structural demand: five U.S. spot XRP ETFs (Canary Capital, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, 21Shares) launched in mid-November and have recorded roughly $1.14B net inflows with AUM near $1.25B, absorbing selling pressure while BTC/ETH ETFs saw outflows. Ripple executives highlight XRP’s utility for liquidity and cross-border settlement, and institutional interest — plus potential adoption catalysts such as Japanese bank integrations (e.g., SBI) and FX volatility — could support medium-term revaluation. Social metrics show unusually negative retail chatter, historically a contrarian signal during institutional accumulation. Key signals for traders: (1) watch the global options expiry as a likely short-term volatility catalyst and possible stop-run that could create a buying opportunity; (2) monitor continued ETF inflows as a structural demand indicator; (3) expect potential short-lived shakeouts to $1.60–$1.70 before a medium-term repricing toward analyst targets of $3–$5 by 2026 if institutional flows and adoption persist.
Bitcoin (BTC) tested resistance near $90,000 as markets reopened after the holidays, trading up over 2% in Asian hours. Traders highlighted about $24 billion of bitcoin options set to expire around the Wall Street open — an event seen as a potential reset that could remove hedging pressure and allow more "organic" price discovery. Option-driven flows and short-term volatility contributed to more than $200 million in liquidations during the latest move. BTC is attempting to break a two-month downtrend that began in October; analysts say a confirmed daily close above current resistance could open a path to $95,000 and the $100,000 area near the 50-day moving averages (50-day SMA ≈ $91,458; 50-day EMA ≈ $92,651). On-chain commentators and traders expect improved market conditions in January as asset managers rebalance, which could support further upside. At the same time, precious metals extended rallies — gold and silver hit record highs in Asian trading, and silver briefly exceeded bitcoin by market capitalisation on some metrics. Key trading cues for crypto traders: monitor BTC daily close and acceptance above $95K, watch options open interest and expiry flows for reduced hedging pressure, and track 50-day moving averages as resistance near $91–93K and around $100K. This summary does not constitute investment advice.
Neutral
BitcoinOptions expiryLiquidationsTechnical levelsGold and silver
Franklin Templeton’s spot XRP ETF (XRPZ) has surpassed the 100 million XRP milestone, now holding roughly 101.55–105.9 million XRP (est. $192.7m–$200m). The inflows appear steady and methodical, driven by regulated institutional and compliance-focused demand rather than short-term speculative buying. ETFs acquire XRP from open markets and place tokens into custody, removing supply from exchange balances. With exchange reserves falling and substantial amounts moving into long-term custody and ETF vehicles, circulating supply tightens — a dynamic that can amplify price pressure if demand increases. Analysts view this as growing institutional adoption: ETFs provide regulated access for retirement accounts, brokers and compliance-conscious investors and may support more stable, lower-volatility demand compared with retail-driven rallies. Key details: ETF ticker XRPZ, holdings above 100M XRP, estimated value near $193M, and implications for supply dynamics and trading volume. Disclaimer: not financial advice.
Zcash (ZEC) has regained market attention after a dramatic six-month rally that delivered over 1,000% gains, but recent price action shows mixed signals. Short-term trading range is roughly $390–$480 with resistance near $510–$520 and immediate support in the mid-$300s (around $313). ZEC briefly reached highs in November before correcting into early December and has since rebounded; trading volumes remain elevated. Technicals are ambiguous: the 10-day moving average sits above the 100-day, suggesting a nascent uptrend, yet ZEC has declined about 13% month-over-month while posting near 15% weekly gains. A decisive break above $510 could target roughly $600 (≈20% above recent highs) and open bullish scenarios cited by analysts, while failure to clear resistance would keep bears in control and risk deeper pullbacks toward the mid-$300s. Broader factors — stability in BTC, ETH, SOL and other majors, sector-wide weakness among privacy coins, and renewed institutional focus on privacy infrastructure — will influence ZEC’s path. Traders should watch price action around $510 resistance, mid-$300s support (notable prior low ~$313), volume, and short- and long-term moving averages to time entries and manage risk. This summary is informational and not investment advice.
Shiba Inu (SHIB) is set to finish December 2025 in negative territory after losing roughly 14–14.5% so far this month. SHIB opened December near $0.000008385 and trades around $0.00000720–$0.00000717, requiring about a 16–17% rally to close the month positive near $0.0000084. December has historically been weak for SHIB (notable moves: −29.5% in Dec 2021, −13.5% in Dec 2022, +24.6% in Dec 2023, −21% in Dec 2024). Trading volumes remain muted for dollar value — under $100m — with one report showing a 13% 24‑hour uptick while another noted a 10% drop, reflecting light and inconsistent holiday liquidity. Market drivers cited include shortened trading hours, reduced retail participation, and defensive positioning around year‑end, which can amplify downside on thin volumes. Analysts flag potential upside from a Santa Claus Rally (last five trading days of the year plus first two of the new year) that could push SHIB toward near resistances at about $0.00000765, $0.00000843 and $0.00001125; failure to attract end‑of‑year flows would likely leave support near the $0.000007 range. Traders should watch end‑of‑year flows, volume contraction, and short‑term momentum for signals on whether SHIB avoids closing December in the red. This information is for market awareness and not financial advice.
Recent five-year data analysis shows Bitcoin (BTC) has limited trading activity and weak structural support in the $70,000–$80,000 range. Investing.com’s session-counting of CME futures open prices (weekstarts, weekends excluded) reports BTC logged just 28 trading days between $70k–$79,999 and 49 days between $80k–$89,999 — far fewer than the nearly 200 days seen in lower bands such as $30k–$49,999. CME futures data indicate stronger price memory and consolidation around $30k–$50k and $50k–$70k, while the $70k–$80k band remains one of the least engaged. Glassnode’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) corroborates sparse supply clustering in the $70k–$80k zone, suggesting few holders realize cost-basis there. Together, these on-chain and futures measures imply the $70k–$80k level lacks built-in demand and could be vulnerable to sharper moves if BTC retests it. For traders: low session-counts and weak URPD clustering signal higher short-term volatility and limited liquidity in that band; a sustainable re-test would likely require renewed on-chain accumulation or concentrated trading activity to build support. Keywords: Bitcoin, BTC, price support, CME futures, Glassnode URPD, UTXO, consolidation, volatility.
Quantum computing advances in 2026 — including milestones like Microsoft’s Majorana 1 — have accelerated research and investment but do not pose an imminent threat to Bitcoin or major blockchains. Cryptography experts say practical quantum attacks that can run Shor’s algorithm at scale against ECDSA remain years to a decade or more away because they require millions of low-error qubits, long coherence times and material and fabrication breakthroughs. The primary near-term risk is archival: adversaries are already collecting on-chain public keys and encrypted data today to decrypt later once quantum capability matures (“store now, decrypt later”). Analysts estimate roughly 25–30% of BTC (about 4 million BTC) is held in addresses exposing public keys, increasing potential vulnerability. ECDSA digital signatures are the weakest link; SHA-256 hashing is comparatively more resilient to quantum attacks. Recommended actions for traders and holders: avoid address reuse, keep public keys hidden until spending, and prepare to migrate to post-quantum wallets and signature schemes when viable. Industry responses include proposals for quantum-resistant signatures, vendor products offering quantum-grade randomness and post-quantum encryption for hot wallets (e.g., Qastle), and regulatory attention from bodies like the US SEC. Market impact is limited in the short term — the narrative is shifting from ‘if’ to ‘when,’ making wallet hygiene and strategic planning for post-quantum migration important for long-term risk management.
Neutral
Quantum computingPost-quantum cryptographyBitcoinWallet securityHarvest now decrypt later