Bank of America chairman and CEO Brian Moynihan told CBS’s Face the Nation he expects the Trump administration’s tariff campaign to de‑escalate by 2026, leaving average tariff rates for major trading partners near 15%. BofA estimates an average tariff of about 15.2% for key partners in its April/July reporting. Moynihan said tariffs disrupted U.S. growth — average U.S. tariffs rose from roughly 2% pre‑Trump to about 14% after the measures — but expects tension to ease and business pressures to shift toward labour shortages and immigration policy. The coverage also cites former White House economist Kevin Hassett, who expressed confidence in the tariffs’ legality before the Supreme Court and signalled support for a possible $2,000 tariff rebate check; analysts warn that adverse court rulings could force large refunds and market disruption. Traders should monitor USMCA reviews, Supreme Court rulings on tariff legality, and any fiscal moves such as rebate proposals. Possible tariff de‑escalation may reduce import‑cost inflation and supply‑chain uncertainty — a macro tailwind for risk assets — while legal and fiscal risks remain market‑moving. Keywords: tariffs, trade policy, Bank of America, tariff de‑escalation, inflationary pressure.
Neutral
tariffstrade policyBank of Americamacroeconomic riskfiscal stimulus
Apeing has launched a limited Stage 1 presale whitelist, offering tokens at 0.0001 each with a claimed target listing price of 0.001 — implying a theoretical 10,000% return for early participants. The presale uses staged allocations and scarce Stage 1 supply to drive early speculative demand; interested traders are directed to join the official whitelist to secure allocation. The article is a sponsored press release and not investment advice. Market context cited alongside the presale: Avalanche (AVAX) has seen recent price weakness (noted drop to around $13.45) but retained attention after Upbit moved most funds to cold storage following a hot-wallet breach; Filecoin-related storage improvements were mentioned as lowering archival costs for Avalanche builders. Chainlink (LINK) was trading lower (~$13.58) but advancing institutional integrations — Swapper Finance and Mastercard enabling fiat-to-DeFi deposits via Chainlink’s Runtime Environment, and TMX Datalinx delivering verified market data on-chain. For traders: Apeing’s mechanics (low entry price, limited whitelist allocation, staged listing) present a high-risk, high-reward short-term speculative opportunity; contrast this with AVAX and LINK developments that reflect ongoing on-chain infrastructure and custody/security narratives. Primary keywords: Apeing presale, whitelist, presale token sale, Avalanche (AVAX), Chainlink (LINK).
Aave (AAVE) fell about 13.3% over the past week as a governance dispute between Aave Labs and the Aave DAO over fee-revenue sharing dented sentiment. Higher-timeframe technicals (3-day) show a sustained downtrend after the $220 support failed and turned into resistance; a decisive bullish shift requires a move above roughly $207–$220 (analysts cite $207.1 and ~$220 as key levels). Shorter-term 4-hour indicators show weakening bearish momentum (MACD near zero) and some buying pressure (Chaikin Money Flow > +0.05), supporting a possible brief bounce toward resistance around $166–$187, with Fibonacci hurdles near $171.85 and $187.58. Analysts recommend viewing rallies into the $167–$178 zone as potential shorting opportunities unless AAVE can break above ~ $187–$207, which would invalidate the bearish bias. On-chain fundamentals remain relatively healthy — lending volumes and TVL sit above $10 billion — but governance uncertainty is suppressing investor confidence. Traders should also watch Bitcoin’s price action (noted breakpoints near $90k–$94.5k) because a broad crypto recovery led by BTC reclaiming those levels could fuel a temporary AAVE rally. Key trade signals: short-term bounces may offer short entries; invalidate bearish setups on a sustained close above ~$187–$207. This summary is informational only and not trading advice.
A SecureList analysis (Jan–Sep 2025), cited by multiple outlets, finds stolen cryptocurrency accounts sell on dark-web markets for an average of $105, with prices typically from $60 to $400 depending on account balance, age, linked payment methods and 2FA status. Phishing is the dominant entry vector: 88.5% of observed operations targeted credentials. Stolen credentials and related data (exchange logins, wallet access, fiat on/off‑ramp details) are exfiltrated through three main channels — email forwarding, Telegram bots (favoured for real‑time, disposable, hard‑to‑trace delivery) and attacker admin panels that enable scale, automated validation, geo/time filters and exports. Cybercriminals monetize data either by instant flips or via resale pipelines: low‑cost bulk dumps are sold to middlemen who run validation scripts, exploit password reuse, enrich profiles and list verified accounts on dark‑web forums and Telegram storefronts. High‑value items (wallet access, one‑time codes, fiat rails) fetch up to ~$400. The report highlights growing professionalisation of phishing operations and Telegram’s central role in distribution. For crypto traders, the main operational risks are direct account loss and increased sell pressure from large-scale liquidations of compromised holdings; recommended mitigations include hardware wallets, unique strong passwords, and multi‑factor authentication to reduce compromise risk and downstream market impacts.
Bearish
phishingdark webcrypto account theftSecureList reportTelegram distribution
Silver’s surge toward a record near $79/oz and extreme RSI readings across commodities and legacy assets have heightened macro stress ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting. U.S. CPI for November remained elevated at 2.7% — above the Fed’s 2% target — reviving concerns that rate cuts may be delayed. Silver’s RSI approaching ~90 signals severe overbought conditions; similar momentum in gold and other commodities suggests a broader commodity-led risk-off dynamic. Traders warn this could trigger forced liquidations and rapid downside moves in Bitcoin (BTC) — a potential short-term "flash crash" — amid FOMC uncertainty and high leverage. Market makers and some participants, however, expect capital to rotate back into Bitcoin after commodities top out, creating scope for a rally following any correction. Key items for traders: monitor silver and gold momentum and RSI extremes, upcoming CPI/FOMC statements for policy guidance, leverage and liquidation levels in crypto, and intra-day order flow that could amplify flash-crash risk. Primary keywords: Bitcoin, silver, FOMC, inflation, flash crash. Secondary/semantic keywords: CPI, RSI, commodities, leverage, liquidations, capital rotation, macro stress.
Blockchain analytics firm BubbleMaps flagged potential insider manipulation in the Atlas memecoin after a Whale Insider promotion to ~625,000 followers. BubbleMaps identified 68 wallets that exhibited coordinated behavior — they were funded through ChangeNow with similar ETH amounts, had no prior on‑chain history, and ‘sniped’ Atlas tokens immediately at launch. Those wallets now control roughly 47% of Atlas’s supply (about $1M). The promotion coincided with a reported ~100% 24‑hour price spike, but on‑chain patterns indicate the move may have been driven by controlled buys from concentrated holders rather than organic retail demand. Analysts and investigators (including ZachXBT) warn this distribution pattern raises a high risk of rapid dumps and rug‑pull style losses for retail traders. Recommended trader actions: verify token distribution and large‑holder concentration, confirm liquidity and lock status, use on‑chain tools to trace fund flows, and treat Atlas as high‑tail‑risk. Note: the U.S. SEC has indicated meme tokens like Atlas may not meet the legal definition of securities, which reduces regulatory protections for buyers. Keywords: Atlas token, BubbleMaps, Whale Insider, insider manipulation, memecoin risks.
APEMARS (APRZ) is a narrative-driven meme token launching via a multi-stage presale in 2026 that emphasizes whitelist access, weekly stage price increases, scheduled burns, staking, referral rewards (branded “Orbital Boost”), and community events. The promotion highlights aggressive upside projections for early entrants (an illustrative ROI claim converts a $2,000 stake to roughly $647,439 at a stated listing price), and advertises low Stage 1 pricing to incentivize whitelist participation. The piece is promotional and paid content; traders should treat advertised returns as speculative. To balance speculative exposure, the article profiles six established altcoins as utility-driven portfolio anchors: XRP (fast, low-cost cross-border payments via XRPL/ODL), ETH (smart-contract hub for DeFi and NFTs), AVAX (high-throughput, sub-second finality, EVM-compatible), LTC (faster payments, long-standing Bitcoin alternative), CRO (Crypto.com’s EVM/Cosmos bridge for payments and DeFi), and BNB (BNB Chain utility, fee discounts, token burns). Key trading takeaways: presale whitelist allocation and entry price materially affect potential returns; promised ROIs in paid promotions are extreme and unlikely — verify tokenomics, smart-contract audits, liquidity and locking plans, and legal/regulatory risks before participating; consider allocating only a small, risk-tolerant portion to presale/meme tokens while using established utility tokens for stability and portfolio balance. Primary SEO keywords: APEMARS presale, APRZ whitelist, meme coin presale, altcoins (XRP, ETH, AVAX, LTC, CRO, BNB).
Anatoly Yakovenko, Solana’s co‑founder, forecasts that global stablecoin supply will exceed $1 trillion by 2026, citing greater use in payments, cross‑border transfers, on‑chain settlements and DeFi liquidity. Yakovenko noted stablecoins already exceed $300 billion in circulation and — per a16z cited figures — are involved in roughly $46 trillion of annual transactions. He argues growth will be network‑agnostic but accelerated by high‑throughput, low‑fee chains (eg, Solana) that support large on‑chain volume and fast settlement. Key drivers are increased business adoption for settlement, DeFi demand for lending and collateral, improved cross‑border rails, and clearer regulatory frameworks that may enable institutional issuance. He also warned that tokenized bank deposits, payment‑network blockchain products and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) could compete with privately issued stablecoins and reshape flows and counterparty risk. For traders: the projection implies a potential 3x+ expansion in stablecoin supply over current levels, which could boost on‑chain liquidity, trading volume and leverage capacity — supportive for crypto markets — but may also change flow dynamics and risk profiles as regulated, tokenized fiat and CBDCs gain traction. Monitor scalability (transaction throughput, fees), regulatory developments, and institutional stablecoin issuance as near‑ to mid‑term catalysts that could materially affect liquidity and price action.
Mutuum Finance (MUTM) is approaching full allocation in its Phase 6 presale at $0.035 after roughly a 250% rise from Phase 1. The project has raised over $19.4 million and amassed more than 18,600 wallets, with 45.5% (1.82B of 4B) of tokens allocated to presale. Development is progressing ahead of a planned V1 launch on Sepolia testnet in Q4 2025, initially supporting ETH and USDT and offering liquidity pools, mtTokens, debt tokens and liquidation mechanics. Security work includes a CertiK token scan score of 90/100, an ongoing Halborn review, and a $50,000 bug bounty; audits/reviews and on-chain signals (including a $115k whale buy during Phase 6) are highlighted. The later summary adds clearer product detail and timing for V1 and emphasizes distribution mechanics designed to encourage holding (24-hour leaderboard rewards, card payments). Analysts contrast MUTM’s execution-driven, supply-tightening profile with sentiment-driven Pepecoin (PEPE) and large-cap Solana (SOL), arguing MUTM may be a rotation target as meme-coin momentum cools. For traders, key data points are current presale price ($0.035), ~250% presale appreciation, $19.4M+ raised, 18.6k+ holders, 45.5% presale allocation, security credentials (CertiK 90/100; Halborn review) and recent whale activity — factors that suggest a favorable risk-reward for those seeking utility-focused presale exposure. This is reported as a press release; readers should perform their own due diligence.
Coinbase Institutional (David Duong, Colin Basco) forecasts a structural shift in crypto markets into 2026 driven by three forces: derivatives (especially perpetual futures), maturing prediction markets, and stablecoins gaining real-world utility. Perpetual futures now dominate price discovery and trading volume; post‑late‑2025 liquidations reduced leverage in what the report calls a “structural reset,” while tighter margining, funding‑rate dynamics and deeper derivatives liquidity make volatility and price moves more tied to positions and funding than to retail cycle narratives. Prediction markets are evolving from niche experiments into functional financial tools as liquidity, professional participation and regulatory clarity increase, creating arbitrage and data‑aggregation opportunities across venues. Stablecoins are shifting beyond trading to payments, cross‑border settlement and treasury use, supporting DeFi and emerging payment/automation use cases. Coinbase argues these trends — occurring alongside stronger regulation and institutional scrutiny — indicate a move from retail‑driven cycles toward professional infrastructure; 2026 will test whether these elements scale under tighter rules. Key trading implications: price discovery will increasingly follow derivatives flows and funding rates (monitor perp open interest, funding, and liquidations), stablecoin flows may affect funding and on‑chain liquidity, and prediction‑market growth could create new hedging/arbitrage strategies. Keywords: perpetual futures, derivatives, funding rates, prediction markets, stablecoins.
Bitcoin (BTC) traded around $87.9k on Dec. 27–28 as market activity remained muted and intraday gains were modest (≈+0.5–0.7%). Hourly charts showed a mild bullish bias with price nearer resistance than support, while higher timeframes display low volume and no clear directional control. Short-term: if buying pressure continues, BTC could test resistance zones around $88k–$88.5k; watch the daily close near $87.7k–$88k for a potential breakout signal. Mid‑term: indicators place BTC mid‑channel, signaling limited volatility and a likely consolidation range between roughly $87k–$89k into early 2026. Key data for traders: BTC ≈ $87,900; 24‑hour change +0.5–0.7%; low trading volume implies sideways action unless a decisive breakout occurs. Primary keywords: Bitcoin, BTC price, breakout, consolidation, volume.
Ethereum (ETH) saw concentrated accumulation by whales and institutional buyers during late December. Large wallets (10,000–100,000 ETH) and reported institutional purchases lifted holdings by roughly 300,000 ETH between Dec 26–28, increasing supply held by large wallets from ~100.48M to ~100.8M ETH (about $850M at current prices near $2,940). Exchange reserves have fallen by ~4.4M ETH over the past year (~20.8M to ~16.4M), indicating sustained net outflows to self‑custody, staking or long‑term holdings. On‑chain fundamentals remain supportive: Ethereum retains ~68% of DeFi TVL and issues over 64% of stablecoins, with TVL near $330.7B and Fully Diluted Market Cap around $353.2B (valuation ~1.1x). Price action is rangebound and trading below key EMAs (50/100/200‑day), sitting close to the 200‑week EMA (~$2,940). Momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) show fading upside and low volatility. Technical levels to watch: support near $2,800 and critical downside zones around $2,000–$2,100 if support fails; resistance and short‑term bullish trigger lies above $3,060–$3,380 (EMA band). For traders: concentrated whale and institutional accumulation reduces available sell liquidity and supports longer‑term bullish supply dynamics, but near‑term direction depends on volume and a decisive break above the EMAs for continuation or a volume‑backed breakdown for downside. Watch on‑chain flows, exchange reserves, and volume spikes as early signals of trend change.
An Australian federal court ordered Gold Coast-based NGS Crypto to immediately cease operations and be wound up after finding it operated an unlicensed financial services business and misled retail investors with guaranteed 16% returns. Justice Berna Collier ruled the platform breached securities and consumer laws and posed significant risks to more than 450 investors who used self-managed superannuation accounts. Court-appointed liquidators from McGrathNicol have so far identified about A$4.4 million (roughly US$4 million) in digital assets versus roughly A$40 million investors reportedly put into the scheme. Recovery is complicated by crypto price volatility, extensive on‑chain transfers and commingling of funds across multiple wallets, and long lock‑ups from staking that reportedly extend until 2037. Regulators obtained freezing orders against directors Ryan Brown, Brett Mendham and Mark Ten Caten and continue tracing funds and pursuing recovery. For traders: this case underscores intensifying regulatory scrutiny of unlicensed crypto retirement and yield products, highlights that asset recoverability in failed crypto firms can be severely constrained by staking lockups and complex wallet movements, and signals higher counterparty and regulatory risk premiums for similar platforms.
Flow blockchain halted operations after an execution‑layer vulnerability was exploited on December 27, 2025, enabling an attacker to mint roughly $3.9 million in illicit wrapped assets (WFLOW, wBTC, wETH and some stablecoins). Validators immediately paused the chain, restored to a pre‑exploit checkpoint and brought the network up in read‑only mode while a protocol patch is validated. On‑chain tracing shows stolen funds exited via cross‑chain bridges Celer, Debridge, Relay and Stargate and moved through Thorchain and Chainflip. The Flow Foundation and validators blocked exit routes, contacted major exchanges and stablecoin issuers (Circle, Tether) with freeze requests, and notified law enforcement. No existing user balances were directly drained; deposits remained intact. The recovery plan calls for canceling the illicit mint events by rolling back to a checkpoint before the attack, followed by a coordinated full restart after a 72‑hour technical review and partner synchronisation. A full technical post‑mortem is expected within 72 hours. Traders should expect short‑term volatility in FLOW and related bridge/wrapped tokens, increased scrutiny on cross‑chain bridges and wrapped asset security, and elevated focus on validator response and rollback governance. The outcome of fund recovery remains uncertain.
A 69-year-old doctor in Ahmedabad lost approximately Rs 63–64 lakh after falling victim to a WhatsApp investment scam that used social engineering, fake testimonials and a fraudulent trading app. Scammers posing as an investment assistant added the victim to a WhatsApp group that displayed fabricated profit screenshots and persuaded him to download an app showing a simulated, growing balance. Over time he transferred funds into multiple bank accounts controlled by the fraudsters. When he tried to withdraw, the scammers demanded an additional Rs 16.91 lakh as a release fee and blocked withdrawals. Ahmedabad cybercrime police registered a case against five suspects for criminal breach of trust, cheating by impersonation, forgery and criminal conspiracy. The incident reflects a broader trend in India of messaging-app based investment frauds that use mule accounts and sometimes convert stolen fiat into crypto to launder proceeds. Recent multi-agency operations, including CBI cooperation with international partners, have dismantled similar networks and recovered assets, but enforcement gaps remain. Crypto traders should note the prevalence of social‑engineering scams, fake trading platforms and forced crypto conversion—risks that can increase illicit flows into digital assets and complicate traceability.
Shiba Inu (SHIB) saw large exchange outflows over the latest period, with roughly 459 billion SHIB withdrawn from centralized exchanges in seven days and a single midweek day moving more than 280 billion SHIB. Earlier on-chain reporting also showed very large single-wallet withdrawals (multi-trillion SHIB moves) in prior days, highlighting sustained whale activity. Netflow data is negative and indicates tokens are shifting into long-term custody — cold wallets, staking/DeFi positions, or private custody — rather than remaining on exchanges for immediate sale. Price structure is weak: SHIB trades below the 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages, and momentum (RSI) sits in the low 40s. On-chain activity is steady but not rising, suggesting a compression of exchange supply that can reduce short-term sell-side liquidity and volatility. However, concurrent inbound flows and past patterns of selling into bounces mean withdrawals do not guarantee an upside; repositioning for OTC sales or DeFi use could precede future sell pressure. Key trader takeaways: ~459B SHIB net outflow in 7 days, >280B SHIB moved in one day, bearish moving-average structure, RSI in low-40s, and reduced immediate sell liquidity — a potential catalyst for lower volatility but not a confirmed bullish reversal.
Plump.com has launched a mobile-first platform that unifies an online casino and sportsbook into a single, streamlined site. The operator highlights instant account creation, short signup flows, curated game discovery, adaptive UI that updates categories and layouts based on player behavior, and responsive customer support. Payment options include crypto and local methods with an emphasis on rapid withdrawals and faster play-to-cash cycles. The product roadmap is positioned as agile and free from legacy constraints, targeting users frustrated by slow onboarding, convoluted bonus mechanics and delayed payouts. The announcement is presented as a sponsored press release. Primary SEO keywords: Plump.com, online casino, sportsbook, crypto payouts, fast withdrawals.
DOGEBALL launches a staged presale from 2 Jan–2 May 2026, marketing itself as a utility-focused meme token that combines a dodgeball-style game, high-yield staking and a custom Ethereum Layer‑2 optimized for gaming. Key presale details: total supply 80 billion $DOGEBALL, 25% (20B) allocated to presale, Stage‑1 price $0.0003, planned listing price $0.015 (implying ~50x uplift from Stage‑1), 15-stage pricing, $1M soft cap, no hard cap, and a 10% referral bonus. Token distribution: presale 25%, marketing 25%, staking/game rewards 15%, liquidity 15%, treasury 10%, development 10%.
Product and partnerships: the team claims an on‑chain explorer is active and a bespoke ETH Layer‑2 with near‑zero fees is built for game transactions. Falcon Interactive — a mobile games company — is named as a partner. The core product is a mobile/PC dodgeball arena with leaderboards and token rewards; a $1M prize pool will be paid in $DOGEBALL (half reserved for the top player). Staking is promoted with high advertised yields (up to 80% referenced in promotional materials) to incentivize long‑term participation.
Market positioning and caveats: promotional coverage contrasts DOGEBALL’s roadmap and monetisation plan with established meme tokens such as PEPE and DOGWIFHAT, arguing DOGEBALL offers clearer utility and asymmetric upside for early presale buyers. The presale is a paid promotion and the coverage makes no investment recommendation. Traders should note the absence of a hard cap, reliance on promotional yields and gaming adoption for token demand, and the large marketing allocation — all factors that affect dilution, sell pressure and price discovery at listing.
Bitcoin (BTC) traded sideways near $87,500–$88,000 after a volatile period that included multiple rejections around $90,000 and a multi‑week low near $84,400. BTC market cap is roughly $1.75 trillion and dominance about 57.3%. The broader crypto market cap rose by roughly $20–30 billion to about $3.04–3.06 trillion, indicating modest net inflows. Major large‑caps showed limited movement: ETH ~ $2,900–$2,950, BNB ~$840–850, XRP around $1.85–1.90, ADA up ~5% to $0.37. Mid‑cap tokens outperformed: DOT and FIL gained ~8–9%, ZEC, UNI and NEAR rose 5%+, while Canton (CC) led the session with a 17% spike to roughly $0.10–0.12. Traders should note Bitcoin’s inability to sustain breakouts above the $90k resistance and the current rotation of capital into select mid‑caps (notably CC and FIL). This pattern points to short‑term, sector‑specific rallies rather than broad market strength — relevant for traders seeking momentum plays in mid‑caps while treating BTC’s upside as constrained until a decisive close above $90k.
Shiba Inu (SHIB) recorded $6.71 million in futures outflows over the past 24 hours — roughly 933.9 billion SHIB leaving derivatives venues, according to CoinGlass. Market participants interpret the flows as derivatives traders taking net long exposure (short covering or new long entries) ahead of the 2026 calendar flip. Price touched a recent low of $0.00000698 during Christmas and has since been range-bound between $0.00000698 and $0.00000729. Latest reporting showed SHIB trading near $0.00000734, up intraday but down on the week, reflecting cautious year‑end sentiment. Key takeaways for traders: (1) sizeable futures outflows signal rising long exposure in the derivatives market, which can compress downside and seed rapid moves if positioning reverses; (2) the narrow price band indicates low immediate volatility but increases the probability of sharp breakouts when funding or liquidations shift; (3) monitor short/liquidation clusters, futures flow data (CoinGlass), and ETF or institutional developments — such as T. Rowe Price’s ETF filing mentions and Galaxy Research’s projection of more spot altcoin ETFs in 2026 — which could lift institutional demand and longer-term sentiment. For trade planning, keep stops tight inside the $0.00000698–$0.00000729 range, watch intraday orderflow and funding rates, and be prepared for asymmetric moves if derivatives positioning flips.
XRP’s structural support is weakening after an initial ETF-driven demand surge. Total net assets in XRP ETFs briefly rose to about $1.24 billion, but daily ETF inflows have tapered significantly, indicating cooling institutional demand. On-chain data from Glassnode shows wallets holding XRP for 2–3 years cut their share from roughly 14.26% to about 5.66% within a month, consistent with profit-taking or portfolio repositioning by long-term holders. Derivatives activity corroborates this shift: Binance futures open interest fell to around $450 million, the lowest since November 2024, reflecting deleveraging and widespread position closures (mainly long liquidations). Combined, slower ETF accumulation, shrinking long-term holder supply and declining open interest point to reduced market participation and weaker structural support for XRP. Traders should monitor ETF daily flows, HODL Wave movements, on-chain address activity and futures open interest for signs of renewed demand or continued distribution, as these indicators will likely drive short-term price volatility and help gauge recovery or further downside risk.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has traded range-bound below the $600 resistance after a failed breakout that briefly reached $631 on December 19. Since November 22 BCH has mostly remained above key moving averages (notably the 21‑ and 50‑day SMAs), giving a short‑term bullish bias, but recent heavy upper wicks and repeated rejections near highs signal strong selling pressure. Current technicals show price bars above upward‑sloping SMAs, yet inability to sustain moves above $600 suggests limited upside. Key resistance levels: $600, $650, $700. Support zones: $500, $450, $400. A decisive breach below the 21‑day SMA would likely shift BCH into a bearish trend; holding it would keep BCH in a confined positive trend. At the time of reporting BCH was trading around $601.35. This is observational technical analysis, not trading advice.
Neutral
Bitcoin CashBCHtechnical analysisresistance and supportmoving averages
Analysts debate whether Bitcoin’s upside is tied to gold as the Bitcoin–gold ratio trades near 20. Glassnode lead analyst James Check and macro strategist Lyn Alden argue Bitcoin (BTC) can continue rising even if gold and silver hold firm, citing distinct long-term drivers such as scarcity and institutional adoption. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone offers a contrasting scenario: the Bitcoin–gold ratio could compress from ~20x to ~10x by 2026 — a halving of the ratio that could occur even with BTC’s USD price roughly unchanged. Other voices vary: veteran trader Peter Brandt warns of possible BTC lows near $50k–$60k by 2026; Michael van de Poppe and others expect BTC to recover and may rise alongside gold; Zaner Metals’ Peter Grant points to Fed policy, dollar weakness and geopolitics as volatility drivers. Current market context: BTC is trading near $87,600 (about 30% below an October peak near $125,100), gold near $4,533/oz and silver above $77 — both at recent highs. Sentiment is divergent (Gold Fear & Greed ~79 vs Crypto Fear & Greed ~24). Key takeaways for traders: monitor the Bitcoin–gold ratio as a macro correlation signal; watch Fed guidance, USD strength/weakness and geopolitical risk; prepare for possible ratio compression that could pressure BTC relative returns by 2026; use hedges, paired trades or position-sizing adjustments to manage risk amid mixed analyst views and elevated macro uncertainty.
CME FedWatch currently prices a 17.7% chance of a 25 basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut at the Jan. 28, 2026 FOMC meeting, with an 82.3% probability of no change. Looking through the March 18, 2026 meeting, markets show 46.7% odds of unchanged policy, 45.6% for a cumulative 25bp cut, and 7.7% for a 50bp easing. These updated probabilities are lower for an immediate January cut compared with earlier readings and reflect shifting market views on the Fed’s path. For crypto markets, changes in Fed rate expectations drive liquidity and risk appetite: higher odds of easing typically support Bitcoin (BTC) and large-cap tokens, while reduced near-term easing prospects can pressure risk assets. Traders should monitor incoming macro data, FOMC communications and daily FedWatch updates, adjust models and position sizing accordingly, and prioritize disciplined risk management and high-conviction trades as liquidity conditions evolve.
Zcash (ZEC) staged a sharp rally in late December, rising roughly 10–15% across reports to trade between ~$446 and ~$510 on Dec. 25–27 as trading volume spiked 45–50%. On-chain data signalled growing whale accumulation: a newly created wallet withdrew 30,000 ZEC from Binance (Lookonchain) and Nansen shows the top 100 ZEC holders increased holdings ~48% over 30 days. Derivatives metrics show a heavy long bias — CoinGlass reported about $18.33M in long-leveraged positions vs. $4.73M in shorts, with clustered leverage around $477 (downside) and $531 (upside). Technicals shifted bullish: ZEC respected an ascending trendline and reportedly broke out of an ascending triangle on the daily chart; analysts cite a daily close above $490 as confirmation for a run toward a $615 target, while failure to hold $490 would invalidate the breakout. Liquidity/heatmap data identifies concentrated long support near $388–$400 and short/liquidation clusters around $450–$531, implying possible short squeezes on extension or long liquidations on rejection. Key takeaways for traders: monitor whale wallet withdrawals and holder accumulation, watch volume spikes and derivatives open interest for conviction, and use $490 daily close as the primary bullish confirmation level with immediate support around $388–$400 and resistance/loss-of-structure risks in the $450–$531 band.
Long-term Bitcoin holders, including Satoshi‑era wallets, moved and sold billions of dollars of BTC across 2025 after prices rose above $100,000. Chain‑analysis identified three main selling waves: end‑2024/early‑2025 (after the $100k breakout), July 2025 (a ~80,000 BTC transfer from a 14‑year dormant wallet routed via Galaxy Digital) and November 2025 (an 80,000 BTC transfer tied to a long‑inactive address). BTC peaked near $126,000 in October before sliding more than 30% to about $86,000 by mid‑December. Despite heavy whale liquidations, spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries (institutional buyers) absorbed large blocks of supply, matching much of the selling pressure and limiting disorderly crashes. Analysts and market observers — including CryptoQuant and Galaxy Digital — say 2025 represented a material redistribution of BTC from long‑term retail/whale holders to institutional hands, which changed traditional cycle dynamics. Key trader takeaways: monitor large on‑chain transfers, ETF inflows and corporate treasury purchases as primary liquidity sinks; expect episodic volatility when dormant whales reactivate but note that strong ETF and institutional demand can mute price impact; and anticipate that ownership consolidation by institutions may alter future upside potential and market signals into 2026.
US-listed Dogecoin (DOGE) spot ETFs have shown persistent weakness since their late-November launches, with recent sessions recording zero net inflows and combined assets around $5.25–$6.0 million (SoSoValue). Trading volumes remain thin — roughly $45k on the most recent day versus millions for competing altcoin ETFs (SOL ~$15.8M, XRP ~$10.8M). Grayscale’s DOGE product holds the bulk of ETF AUM while Bitwise’s DOGE fund has seen net outflows, causing overall flows across issuers to net to zero. DOGE ETF assets represent roughly 0.02% of Dogecoin’s market cap, far below ETF penetration for Solana and XRP. Analysts cite low liquidity, issuer concentration, meme‑coin status and limited utility as reasons for weak institutional demand. The flow stagnation reduces execution flexibility, increases transaction costs for large orders, and can exert short‑term downward pressure on DOGE price; traders should monitor ETF flows, AUM concentration, and relative liquidity versus other altcoin ETFs for signals on short-term liquidity and price impact.
Apeing (APEING) has opened a limited whitelist for its stage‑1 presale, offering tokens at 0.0001 APEING each and marketing an expected listing price near 0.001. The project promotes community-driven tokenomics, staged token allocation, staking rewards, leaderboard incentives and strategic partnerships. Promoters claim very large returns — up to 10x at listing or much higher (>10,000%) for earliest allocations — but the release is a sponsored statement and explicitly not investment advice. Compared with established meme projects such as BONK and Shiba Inu, the article frames Apeing as a high‑risk, high‑reward presale play with limited whitelist allocation and a roadmap that emphasizes transparency and utility. Key trading details: stage‑1 presale price 0.0001 APEING, expected listing ~0.001, limited whitelist spots, community governance features and staking. Traders should note that presale ROI claims are promotional and that such launches often face listing, liquidity and sell‑pressure risks.
Large Dogecoin holders sold roughly 150 million DOGE over five days while price traded near the lower part of its recent range, a move on-chain data interprets as risk trimming rather than panic selling. Spot price has been confined to a descending channel since October and is testing channel support around $0.12; the RSI near 36 points to stabilizing but still bearish momentum. Mid-channel resistance lies at $0.155–$0.186; reclaiming that zone would open a path toward $0.206–$0.25. Derivatives data paint a conflicting picture: more than 70% of Binance positions are long (long-to-short ~2.4) and open interest rose to about $1.49bn (+1.6%), indicating fresh leveraged exposure that increases liquidation risk and short‑term volatility. Short liquidations recently outpaced longs, implying short-term bearish exhaustion and intraday squeeze potential. For traders: monitor whale balance changes, on-chain flows, Open Interest, long/short ratios and liquidation events; key technical levels are $0.12 (support), $0.155–$0.186 (mid resistance) and $0.206–$0.25 (upside supply). The setup is fragile — continued whale selling caps rallies, while concentrated leveraged longs create outsized liquidation risk but also a credible squeeze-recovery path if selling subsides.